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Author : Kate Louis Flanagan
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (244 download)
Download or read book Uncertainties in Traffic and Revenue Forecasting written by Kate Louis Flanagan and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Luis G. Willumsen
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780992843304
Total Pages : 215 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (433 download)
Download or read book Better Traffic and Revenue Forecasting written by Luis G. Willumsen and published by . This book was released on 2014-07-26 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Demand and revenue forecasting for transport concessions has an inconsistent track record. There are several reasons for this: a possible optimism bias, the inherent uncertainty in any forecast, limited data and a poor choice of modelling tools. Therefore any better approach must acknowledge these constraints from the outset and be adapted to deal with revenue risk. This book addresses these issues on the basis of 20 years of international experience producing Traffic and Revenue projections for a range of transport concessions: Toll Roads, Managed Lanes, LRT, BRT, Metro and Rail projects with involvement of the private sector. It includes an additional chapter on Congestion Charging. The book is divided into three parts. Part I covers the context for the participation of the private sector and the requirements posed for demand forecasting. Part II is more technical and describes the strengths and limitations of the modelling tools used in both conventional and Traffic and Revenue forecasting models; it deals with issues like induced traffic, destination, mode and time of travel choice and, of course, discusses assignment in detail; willingness to pay is central to this part. Part III covers the practice of producing forecasts for different types of concessions: sound assumptions, modelling price and means of payment, growth models, treatment of congestion and travel time reliability, optimal pricing, annualisation, inflation and tariff escalation. This part also deals with the critical issue of future uncertainty with suggestions for peer reviews, sensitivity test, risk analysis and scenario planning. The book should be of interest to professionals working in procuring authorities preparing a transport concession, consortia bidding for such projects and financial specialists seeking to get a better understanding of the techniques used for Traffic and Revenue forecasting. Planners developing projects where price and revenue risk are important will also gain useful insights. The text contains a large number of tables and figures, all in colour, and suggestions on writing a good Final Report. A website, www.bettertandr.com, complements the book. About the author Dr. Luis (Pilo) Willumsen has 15 years of experience in transport teaching and research plus two decades producing traffic and revenue projections for more than 50 different private sector projects in over 30 countries. He is co-author of Modelling Transport, a Wiley text describing the state of the art in the field and now in its fourth edition; he has also made some helpful contributions to modelling and forecasting techniques. He is currently an independent consultant and a Visiting Professor at University College London.
Author : E.J. Visser
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9400997078
Total Pages : 653 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (9 download)
Download or read book Transport decisions in an age of uncertainty written by E.J. Visser and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 653 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Proceedings of the 3rd World Conference on Transport Research, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, April 1977
Author : Robert Bain
Publisher : Lulu.com
ISBN 13 : 0956152716
Total Pages : 126 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (561 download)
Download or read book Toll Road Traffic and Revenue Forecasts written by Robert Bain and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2009 with total page 126 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Toll roads, bridges and tunnels represent the most popular class of infrastructure attracting international private finance today. Many deals, however, expose financiers, insurers and other project counterparties to demand risk. This moves traffic and revenue forecasts centre-stage in terms of being able to understand and test the investment proposition - yet the forecasting process itself often remains a mystery. Additionally, there are frequent concerns about predictive reliability. Written specifically for credit analysts, investors and other professionals whose primary expertise lies outside transportation, this book lifts the lid on the 'black box' of traffic and revenue forecasting. The author, Robert Bain (ex-S&P and a civil engineer with 20+ years of forecasting experience) has prepared a straightforward guide which highlights key issues to watch for and suggests ways in which the forecasts can be analysed to improve transparency and investor understanding.
Author : David T. Hartgen
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (555 download)
Download or read book Uncertainty in Travel Forecasts and Its Impact on Design written by David T. Hartgen and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Guopeng Li
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9789055843244
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (432 download)
Download or read book Uncertainty Quantification and Predictability Analysis for Traffic Forecasting at Multiple Scales written by Guopeng Li and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Ian S. Kincaid
Publisher : Transportation Research Board
ISBN 13 : 030925857X
Total Pages : 147 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (92 download)
Download or read book Addressing Uncertainty about Future Airport Activity Levels in Airport Decision Making written by Ian S. Kincaid and published by Transportation Research Board. This book was released on 2012 with total page 147 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report provides a guidebook on how to develop air traffic forecasts in the face of a broad range of uncertainties. It is targeted at airport operators, planners, designers, and other stakeholders involved in planning, managing, and financing of airports, and it provides a systems analysis methodology that augments standard master planning and strategic planning approaches. This methodology includes a set of tools for improving the understanding and application of risk and uncertainty in air traffic forecasts as well as for increasing overall effectiveness of airport planning and decision making. In developing the guidebook, the research team studied existing methods used in traditional master planning as well as methods that directly address risk and uncertainty, and based on that fundamental research, they created a straightforward and transparent systems analysis methodology for expanding and improving traditional planning practices, applicable through a wide range of airport sizes. The methods presented were tested through a series of case study applications that also helped to identify additional opportunities for future research and long-term enhancements.
Author : Søren Budde
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 5 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (753 download)
Download or read book A Model for the Uncertainty in a Conventional Traffic Forecasting Model written by Søren Budde and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 5 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309180538
Total Pages : 124 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-10-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Author : David S. Kriger
Publisher : Transportation Research Board
ISBN 13 : 0309097762
Total Pages : 113 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (9 download)
Download or read book Estimating Toll Road Demand and Revenue written by David S. Kriger and published by Transportation Research Board. This book was released on 2006 with total page 113 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Gregory D. Erhardt
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780309481434
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (814 download)
Download or read book Traffic Forecasting Accuracy Assessment Research written by Gregory D. Erhardt and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Accurate traffic forecasts for highway planning and design help ensure that public dollars are spent wisely. Forecasts inform discussions about whether, when, how, and where to invest public resources to manage traffic flow, widen and remodel existing facilities, and where to locate, align, and how to size new ones. The TRB National Cooperative Highway Research Program's NCHRP Report 934: Traffic Forecasting Accuracy Assessment Research seeks to develop a process and methods by which to analyze and improve the accuracy, reliability, and utility of project-level traffic forecasts. The report also includes tools for engineers and planners who are involved in generating traffic forecasts, including: Quantile Regression Models, a Traffic Accuracy Assessment, a Forecast Archive Annotated Outline, a Deep Dive Annotated Outline, and Deep Dive Assessment Tables.
Author : International Bridge, Tunnel, and Turnpike Association
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 112 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book Proceedings of the Annual Meeting written by International Bridge, Tunnel, and Turnpike Association and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Ryoh Yasue
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 67 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (124 download)
Download or read book Dealing with the Uncertainties written by Ryoh Yasue and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 67 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : International Bridge, Tunnel, and Turnpike Association. Meeting & Exhibition
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 110 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)
Download or read book Proceedings of the ... Annual Meeting & Exhibition written by International Bridge, Tunnel, and Turnpike Association. Meeting & Exhibition and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 110 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Anna Matas
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)
Download or read book Traffic Forecasts Under Uncertainty and Capacity Constraints written by Anna Matas and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traffic forecasts provide essential input for the appraisal of transport investment projects. However, according to recent empirical evidence, long-term predictions are subject to high levels of uncertainty. This paper quantifies uncertainty in traffic forecasts for the tolled motorway network in Spain. Uncertainty is quantified in the form of a confidence interval for the traffic forecast that includes both model uncertainty and input uncertainty. We apply a stochastic simulation process based on bootstrapping techniques. Furthermore, the paper proposes a new methodology to account for capacity constraints in long-term traffic forecasts. Specifically, we suggest a dynamic model in which the speed of adjustment is related to the ratio between the actual traffic flow and the maximum capacity of the motorway. This methodology is applied to a specific public policy that consists of suppressing the toll on a certain motorway section before the concession expires.
Author : Herbert T. Spiro
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 9780471127888
Total Pages : 324 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (278 download)
Download or read book Finance for the Nonfinancial Manager written by Herbert T. Spiro and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1996-04-11 with total page 324 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Finance for the Nonfinancial Manager, Fourth Edition. If you're a manager, odds are you're playing a larger and moreimportant role in the financial matters of your company. As today'smarketplace becomes increasingly competitive, it's essential thatall managers have a basic understanding of the tools, objectives,and functions of finance if they are to stay ahead of thecompetition. Covering the gamut of the "numbers" end of management,Finance for the Nonfinancial Manager helps you develop a soundbasis for carrying out strategic financial planning anddecision-making responsibilities. This comprehensive reference has served as an indispensable guidefor executives, managers, and small business owners for almost twodecades. Now in its fourth edition, this classic has been updatedto reflect the latest federal tax and regulatory legislation, andit is filled with new charts, tables, and examples suitable for theneeds of today's manager. From basic economic concepts toaccounting conventions, the broad range of topics examined inFinance for the Nonfinancial Manager include: cash flow management,banking relationships, security markets, credit policies, andcapital acquisition. You'll also find practical guidelines for suchimportant skills as how to: * Interpret balance sheets. * Design budgets and P & Ls. * Apply break-even analyses. * Decipher financial statements. Now more than ever, being a manager in the competitive marketplacerequires a solid understanding of key aspects of finance. Thisrevised and expanded edition of Finance for the NonfinancialManager shows you how to get a handle on the basic concepts andprinciples you need to run and maintain a successful business.
Author : Martin Hopkinson
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
ISBN 13 : 1351883461
Total Pages : 265 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (518 download)
Download or read book The Project Risk Maturity Model written by Martin Hopkinson and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2017-03-02 with total page 265 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Top businesses recognise risk management as a core feature of their project management process and approach to the governance of projects. However, a mature risk management process is required in order to realise its benefits; one that takes into account the design and implementation of the process and the skills, experience and culture of the people who use it. To be mature in the way you manage risk you need an accepted framework to assess your risk management maturity, allowing you to benchmark against a recognised standard. A structured pathway for improvement is also needed, not just telling you where you are now, but describing the steps required to reach the next level. The Project Risk Maturity Model detailed here provides such an assessment framework and development pathway. It can be used to benchmark your project risk processes and support the introduction of effective in-house project risk management. Using this model, implementation and improvement of project risk management can be managed effectively to ensure that the expected benefits are achieved in a way that is appropriate to the needs of each organisation. Martin Hopkinson has developed The Project Risk Maturity Model into a robust framework, and this book allows you to access and apply his insights and experience. A key feature is a downloadable resource containing a working copy of the QinetiQ Project Risk Maturity Model (RMM). This will enable you to undertake maturity assessments for as many projects as you choose. The RMM has been proven over a period of 10 years, with at least 250 maturity assessments on projects and programmes with a total value exceeding £60 billion. A case study in the book demonstrates how it has been used to deliver significant and measurable benefits to the performance of major projects.
