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Twin Deficits In Developing Economies
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Book Synopsis Twin Deficits in Developing Economies by : Davide Furceri
Download or read book Twin Deficits in Developing Economies written by Davide Furceri and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-27 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides new evidence on the existence and magnitude of the “twin deficits” in developing economies. It finds that a one percent of GDP unanticipated increase in the government budget balance improves, on average, the current account balance by 0.8 percentage point of GDP. This effect is substantially larger than that obtained using standard measures of fiscal impulse, such as the cyclically-adjusted budget balance. The results point to heterogeneity across countries and over time. The effect tends to be larger: (i) during recessions; in countries (ii) that are more open to trade; (iii) that have less flexible exchange rate regimes; and (iv) with lower initial public debt-to-GDP ratios.
Book Synopsis Beyond the Twin Deficits: A Trade Strategy for the 1990's by : Robert A. Blecker
Download or read book Beyond the Twin Deficits: A Trade Strategy for the 1990's written by Robert A. Blecker and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-09-16 with total page 163 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study documents evidence of a decline trend in the international competitiveness of US industry. The analysis identifies three groups of countries that account for most of the US trade deficit in the 1980s: the surplus countries, Germany and Japan; the East Asian NICs; and the Latin American debtors. In each case the author points to underlying structural problems contributing to the deficit. They call for quite different US policy responses, including microeconomic and industrial policies, incentives to revive productivity, growth and technological innovation, import surcharges, wage increases in the NICs, currency realignments, US capital exports, and debt relief. A pragmatic policy approach, with efforts to open foreign markets, aims to achieve the greatest possible reduction in the trade deficit with the lowest possible cost from macroeconomic adjustments. The author urges the reversal of two adverse trends in his policy strategy: the decline in public sector investment and the decreasing progressivity of the tax code.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Policy and the Current Account by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Fiscal Policy and the Current Account written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-05-01 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the relationship between fiscal policy and the current account, drawing on a larger country sample than in previous studies and using panel regressions, vector autoregressions, and an analysis of large fiscal and external adjustments. On average, a strengthening in the fiscal balance by 1 percentage point of GDP is associated with a current account improvement of 0.2–0.3 percentage point of GDP. This association is as strong in emerging and low-income countries as it is in advanced economies; and significantly higher when output is above potential.
Book Synopsis Macromodelling Debt and Twin Deficits by : WAN LATIFAH
Download or read book Macromodelling Debt and Twin Deficits written by WAN LATIFAH and published by Xlibris Corporation. This book was released on 2014-09-10 with total page 310 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Debt is an important form of financing economic development, especially external debt is in the form of foreign exchange inflows. Exports may not bring in the necessary amount of foreign exchange needed for more imports, or foreign direct investment may not be sufficient for rapid economic development. Debt may bring in benefits/profits or may become a problem of liquidity or solvency. Debt is profitable when its usage brings in discounted streams of rates of return greater than its discounted streams of costs. Illiquidity is a short-run inadequacy of foreign exchange whereas solvency is a long-run problem in the same respect. Debt crisis - a long run solvency problem - refers to a situation where a country or a region undergo rescheduling; i.e. postponement of interest and principal repayments as a result of inability to repay debt. Rescheduling occurs often through the process of negotiations between debtors and creditors. A country can also declare a moratorium which is more severe because it means repayments of interest or both interest and principal are stopped temporarily until creditors agree to negotiate. The 1980s marked a decade where there were developing country-wide debt problem. The nature of debt problem broadly differ among regions. The Latin American countries went into debt crisis due to excessive borrowings in the international credit markets including the Euro-currency market. The debt crisis in the African region predates that of the Latin American's due to scarcity of foreign exchange earnings via exports. The ASEAN region has lesser debt problems of illiquidity in nature, thus perceived as creditworthy by over-viewers, facilitating more capital inflows in either the form of foreign investment or foreign debt.
Book Synopsis Budget Deficits and Debt by : Siamack Shojai
Download or read book Budget Deficits and Debt written by Siamack Shojai and published by Bloomsbury Publishing USA. This book was released on 1999-01-30 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This edited collection is a critical evaluation of the impact of fiscal imbalances on the economy of industrialized and developing countries as prepared by a diverse group of scholars involved in advanced research on public finance. Technical issues, economic consequences and the political economy of budget deficits and government debt are covered in one succinct volume. The work provides a balanced presentation of neo-classical views on measures of government deficits; the budget process and major budgetary legislation in the United States; and the impact of deficits on economic activity, exchange rates, inflation, financial markets, trade balance, and economic growth. It also examines the political economy of government budgets in the OECD, select developing economies, and South Africa. From the 1950s to the 1980s, economic activity and growth were affected by fiscal imbalances and excessive government activity in many countries. Although many actors have made retrenchment attempts, economic research has not resolved the conflicting arguments about the impact of fiscal imbalances on the global economy. This book provides a balanced presentation of all major issues related to the impact of fiscal activity on the economy.
Book Synopsis Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence by : Mr.Daniel Leigh
Download or read book Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence written by Mr.Daniel Leigh and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-07-01 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the short-term effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in OECD economies. We examine the historical record, including Budget Speeches and IMFdocuments, to identify changes in fiscal policy motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and not by responding to prospective economic conditions. Using this new dataset, our estimates suggest fiscal consolidation has contractionary effects on private domestic demand and GDP. By contrast, estimates based on conventional measures of the fiscal policy stance used in the literature support the expansionary fiscal contractions hypothesis but appear to be biased toward overstating expansionary effects.
Book Synopsis Global Waves of Debt by : M. Ayhan Kose
Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomics of Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries by : Raghbendra Jha
Download or read book Macroeconomics of Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries written by Raghbendra Jha and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper considers some aspects of the effects of fiscal policy on macroeconomic adjustment in developing countries. First, the paper reviews the notion of the fiscal deficit in the particular context of developing countries. It then spells out the conditions under which the internal and external debts are sustainable and points out the role of the "twin deficits". The paper then presents some evidence on the sustainability of the internal and external deficits in the context of some developing countries. Finally the paper develops the theme of endogeneity of money supply to fiscal policy and international capital flows and points out the difficulties faced by stabilization policy under these conditions.
Download or read book The CFA Franc Zone written by Ali Zafar and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-05-11 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides an empirical analysis of economic and political structures impacting the CFA franc zone. Concise and practical chapters explore the history of the CFA franc zone, challenges to development, geopolitical issues, the importance of flexible exchanges rates, growth trends, and the impact of the Covid crisis. Policy reform is examined to detail economic approaches that could reduce poverty and increase the quality of life within the area. This book aims to present a macroeconomic and exchange rate framework to promote development and post-Covid recovery within the CFA franc zone. It will be of interest to students, researchers, and policymakers involved in African economics, the political economy, and development economics.
Author :International Monetary Fund Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498344658 Total Pages :257 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis Fiscal Policy and Long-Term Growth by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Fiscal Policy and Long-Term Growth written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-04-20 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.
Download or read book Political Science 1963 written by Europa and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 1990-12-31 with total page 354 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First published in 1965. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an informa company.
Book Synopsis How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers? by : Ethan Ilzetzki
Download or read book How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers? written by Ethan Ilzetzki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-03-01 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We contribute to the intense debate on the real effects of fiscal stimuli by showing that the impact of government expenditure shocks depends crucially on key country characteristics, such as the level of development, exchange rate regime, openness to trade, and public indebtedness. Based on a novel quarterly dataset of government expenditure in 44 countries, we find that (i) the output effect of an increase in government consumption is larger in industrial than in developing countries, (ii) the fisscal multiplier is relatively large in economies operating under predetermined exchange rate but zero in economies operating under flexible exchange rates; (iii) fiscal multipliers in open economies are lower than in closed economies and (iv) fiscal multipliers in high-debt countries are also zero.
Book Synopsis Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers by : Olivier J. Blanchard
Download or read book Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers written by Olivier J. Blanchard and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-03 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters. The weaker relation in more recent years may reflect in part learning by forecasters and in part smaller multipliers than in the early years of the crisis.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1589068068 Total Pages :252 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (89 download)
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, April 2009 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, April 2009 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-04-22 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This edition of the World Economic Outlook explores how a dramatic escalation of the financial crisis in September 2008 provoked an unprecedented contraction of activity and trade, despite active policy responses. It presents economic projections for 2009 and 2010, and also looks beyond the current crisis, considering factors that will shape the landscape of the global economy over the medium term, as businesses and households seek to repair the damage. The analysis also outlines the difficult policy challenges presented by the overwhelming imperative to take all steps necessary to restore financial stability and revive the global economy, and the longer-run need for national actions to be mutually supporting. The first of two analytical chapters, "What Kind of Economic Recovery?" explores the shape of the eventual recovery. The second, "The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging and Developing Economies," focuses on the role of external financial linkages and financial stress in transmitting economic shocks.
Book Synopsis International Aspects of Fiscal Policies by : Jacob A. Frenkel
Download or read book International Aspects of Fiscal Policies written by Jacob A. Frenkel and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-12-01 with total page 422 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume brings together nine papers from a conference on international macroeconomics sponsored by the NBER in 1985. International economists as well as graduate students in the fields of global monetary economics, finance, and macroeconomics will find this an outstanding contribution to current research. It includes two commentaries for each paper, written by experts in the field, and Frenkel's detailed introduction, which serves as a reader's guide to the arguments made, the models employed, and the issues raised by each contributor. The studies analyze national fiscal policies within the context of the international economic order. Malcolm D. Knight and Paul R. Masson use an empirical model to show that fiscal changes in recent years in the United States, West Germany, and Japan have caused major disturbances in net savings and investment flows. Linda S. Kole uses a two-country simulation model to examine the effects of a large nation's expansion on exchange rates, interest rates, and the balance of payments. In other studies, Warwick J. McKibbin and Jeffrey D. Sachs discuss the influences of different currency regimes on the international transmission of inflation; Kent P. Kimbrough analyzes the interaction between optimal tax policies and international trade; Sweder van Wijnbergen investigates the interrelation of fiscal policies, trade intervention, and world interest rates; and Willem H. Buiter uses an analytical model to look at fiscal interdependence and optimal policy design. David Backus, Michael Devereux, and Douglas Purvis develop a theoretical model to investigate effects of different fiscal policies in an open economy. Alan C. Stockman looks at the influence of policy anticipation in the private sector, while Lawrence H. Summers shows the effects of differential tax policy on international competitiveness.
Book Synopsis The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity by : Richard Hemming
Download or read book The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity written by Richard Hemming and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2002-12 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The focus is on the size of fiscal multipliers, and on the possibility that multipliers can turn negative (i.e., that fiscal contractions can be expansionary). The paper concludes that fiscal multipliers are overwhelmingly positive but small. However, there is some evidence of negative fiscal multipliers.
Author :Michel Normandin Publisher :Research Center on Employment and Economic Fluctuations, Université du Québec à Montréal = Centre de recherche sur l'emploi et les fluctuations économiques, Université du Québec à Montréal ISBN 13 : Total Pages :0 pages Book Rating :4.:/5 (137 download)
Book Synopsis Budget Deficit Persistence and the Twin Deficits Hypothesis [computer File] by : Michel Normandin
Download or read book Budget Deficit Persistence and the Twin Deficits Hypothesis [computer File] written by Michel Normandin and published by Research Center on Employment and Economic Fluctuations, Université du Québec à Montréal = Centre de recherche sur l'emploi et les fluctuations économiques, Université du Québec à Montréal. This book was released on 2000* with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper gauges the causal relationship between external and budget deficits by using Blanchard's overlapping generations model. This model tests the twin deficits hypothesis (i.e., there is a positive relationship between the deficits) and the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis (i.e., there is no link between the deficits). This model also implies that consumers forecast future budget deficits using (at least) the history of the two deficits. This implication is used to derive time series restrictions, which are testable for given consumers' planning horizons. For the relevant horizon, the response of the external deficit to an increase in the budget deficit is computed. For the Canadian and the U.S. economies, the relevant horizons can be as long as 83 years. However, given the persistence of the budget deficits, these horizons produce responses that are statistically significant. These findings reconcile the mixed results obtained in previous analyses.
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