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Trade Intensity And Business Cycle Synchronicity In Africa
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Book Synopsis Rising BRICs and Changes in Sub-Saharan Africa’s Business Cycle Patterns by : Oumar Diallo
Download or read book Rising BRICs and Changes in Sub-Saharan Africa’s Business Cycle Patterns written by Oumar Diallo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-02-14 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses the extent to which Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)’s business cycle is synchronized with that of the rest of the world (RoW). Findings suggest that SSA’s business cycle has not only moved in the same direction as that of the RoW, but has also gradually drifted away from the G7 in favour of the BRICs. Trade with the BRICs turns out to be the strongest driver of this shift. Much of this impact unfolds through aggregate demand impulse from trade. As fiscal policy stances in SSA and the BRICs are not synchronized, they have not caused cyclical output correlation between these two groups of countries. Also, financial openness, which is at a very early stage across most SSA countries, has acted as a neutral force.
Book Synopsis Global Business Cycles by : Mr.Ayhan Kose
Download or read book Global Business Cycles written by Mr.Ayhan Kose and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-06-01 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.
Book Synopsis Regional Economic Integration in West Africa by : Diery Seck
Download or read book Regional Economic Integration in West Africa written by Diery Seck and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-18 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a number of key studies pertaining to the most pressing challenges of economic regional integration in West Africa. The issues of monetary coordination, foreign exchange volatility, taxation, savings and macroeconomic convergence are investigated from a regional perspective. The characteristics of West Africa’s trade policy are reviewed and assessed in comparison to that of the Southern African Development Community (SADC). The extent to which regional integration can tackle the challenge of unemployment is the focus of studies on labour markets. Development of the private sector and coordination of regional cross-border transportation are examined through the lens of economic collaboration between Arab and African countries. The book provides fresh new answers to persistent development questions and sheds new light on long-held views that are either incomplete or no longer true. It also opens new perspectives on the search for sustainable avenues for Africa’s development. In this regard, it may contribute to the emergence of a new paradigm on Africa’s development process and its science-based, policy-oriented implementation.
Book Synopsis Regional Integration and Trade in Africa by : Mthuli Ncube
Download or read book Regional Integration and Trade in Africa written by Mthuli Ncube and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-12-21 with total page 235 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book reviews the current trends and challenges of regional integration and trade in Africa. It provides valuable policy recommendations aimed at stimulating the debate among the government, private sector and development community on the ways to promote regional trade for Africa's economic development.
Book Synopsis Regionalization vs. Globalization by : Mr.Hideaki Hirata
Download or read book Regionalization vs. Globalization written by Mr.Hideaki Hirata and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-22 with total page 65 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles. Our model allows us to assess the roles played by the global, regional, and country-specific factors in explaining business cycles in a large sample of countries and regions over the period 1960–2010. We find that, since the mid-1980s, the importance of regional factors has increased markedly in explaining business cycles especially in regions that experienced a sharp growth in intra-regional trade and financial flows. By contrast, the relative importance of the global factor has declined over the same period. In short, the recent era of globalization has witnessed the emergence of regional business cycles.
Book Synopsis Should African Monetary Unions Be Expanded? An Empirical Investigation of the Scope for Monetary Integration in Sub-Saharan Africa by : Mr.Xavier Debrun
Download or read book Should African Monetary Unions Be Expanded? An Empirical Investigation of the Scope for Monetary Integration in Sub-Saharan Africa written by Mr.Xavier Debrun and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-07-01 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a full-fledged cost-benefit analysis of monetary integration, and applies it to the currency unions actively pursued in Africa. The benefits of monetary union come from a more credible monetary policy, while the costs derive from real shock asymmetries and fiscal disparities. The model is calibrated using African data. Simulations indicate that the proposed EAC, ECOWAS, and SADC monetary unions bring about net benefits to some potential members, but modest net gains and sometimes net losses for others. Strengthening domestic macroeconomic frameworks is shown to provide some of the same improvements as monetary integration, reducing the latter’s relative attractiveness.
Book Synopsis Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization by : Mr.Romain A Duval
Download or read book Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization written by Mr.Romain A Duval and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-04-03 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reexamines the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization (BCS) using new value-added trade data for 63 advanced and emerging economies during 1995–2012. In a panel framework, we identify a strong positive impact of trade intensity on BCS—conditional on various controls, global common shocks and country-pair heterogeneity—that is absent when gross trade data are used. That effect is bigger in crisis times, pointing to trade as an important crisis propagation mechanism. Bilateral intra-industry trade and trade specialization correlation also appear to increase co-movement, indicating that not only the intensity but also the type of trade matters. Finally, we show that dependence on Chinese final demand in value-added terms amplifies the international spillovers and synchronizing impact of growth shocks in China.
Book Synopsis The Heterogeneous Effects of Uncertainty on Trade by : Ibrahim Nana
Download or read book The Heterogeneous Effects of Uncertainty on Trade written by Ibrahim Nana and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-07-09 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper empirically investigates the relationship between uncertainty and trade. We use a gravity model for 143 countries over the 1980-2021 period to assess the impact of uncertainty on bilateral trade. We confirm that, in general, uncertainty has a negative impact on trade. The findings suggest that a one standard deviation increase in global uncertainty is associated with a decline in bilateral trade by 4.5 percent, with fuel and industrial products trade being the most impacted. This negative impact is observed for uncertainty on both sides of the border, with a higher impact of uncertainty from the importing country. The article goes deeper into the analysis and shows that deeper trade integration (horizontal integration) mitigates the negative impact of uncertainty on trade. In contrast, higher participation in global value chains (vertical integration) amplifies the negative effect of uncertainty on trade. We find that geopolitical tensions amplify the deterrent effect of uncertainty on trade. Finally, the result is heterogeneous across income levels, regions, and resource endowment: (a) uncertainty has a negative impact on bilateral trade between Emerging Markets and Developing Economies and Advanced Economies; however, (b) at the regional level, Africa and Europe’s intraregional trade decrease as uncertainty surges. (c) Evidence shows that non-resources-rich countries are more at risk.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Modelling And Monetary And Exchange Rate Regimes by : Paul R Masson
Download or read book Macroeconomic Modelling And Monetary And Exchange Rate Regimes written by Paul R Masson and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2019-07-23 with total page 428 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents articles that focus on the inter-related issues of choice of exchange rate and monetary policy regimes, and others that use a global macroeconomic model developed by the author and collaborators to quantify the effects of the 'baby boom' on global imbalances, costs of disinflation, and the effects of German unification. The book presents new analysis of the euro-zone experience and its applicability to other monetary unions, as well as a discussion of the prerequisites for successful inflation targeting. It is grounded in real-world data, readily accessible to non-specialists, and addresses important economic policy issues.
Book Synopsis Contemporary Issues and Prospects in Business Development in Africa by : Simon P. Sigué
Download or read book Contemporary Issues and Prospects in Business Development in Africa written by Simon P. Sigué and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-05-21 with total page 153 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Celebrating the 20th anniversary of the Journal of African Business, this book delves into contemporary issues in business and business knowledge development in Africa. This collection of eight chapters—by fourteen distinguished scholars based in Africa, Europe, and North America—covers anticorruption strategies; domestic credit and export diversification; the challenges of doing business in African countries; the emergence of African endogenous businesses; board gender diversity; governance and performance of strategic alliances; customer-centric marketing in Africa; and the intellectual development of the Journal of African Business as the premier research outlet for African business since its inception in 2000. Each chapter offers a cogently differentiated perspective about business growth or business knowledge development in Africa. Made up of contributions which are vividly and ingeniously written to be accessible to decision-makers and other non-experts, this book will be of interest to all those researching the development of business in Africa. This book was originally published as a special issue of the Journal of African Business.
Book Synopsis Workers’ Remittances by : Mr.Adolfo Barajas
Download or read book Workers’ Remittances written by Mr.Adolfo Barajas and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-10-19 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper shows that remittance flows significantly increase the business cycle synchronization between remittance-recipient countries and the rest of the world. Using both aggregate and bilateral remittances data in a panel data setting, the study demonstrates that this effect is robust and causal. Moreover, the econometric analysis reveals that remittance flows are more effective in channeling economic downturns than upswings from the sending countries to remittance-receiving economies. The analysis suggests that measures of openness and spillovers could be enhanced by accounting for the role of the remittances channel.
Book Synopsis Uncertainty, Expectations and Asset Price Dynamics by : Fredj Jawadi
Download or read book Uncertainty, Expectations and Asset Price Dynamics written by Fredj Jawadi and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-11-30 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written in honor of Emeritus Professor Georges Prat (University of Paris Nanterre, France), this book includes contributions from eminent authors on a range of topics that are of interest to researchers and graduates, as well as investors and portfolio managers. The topics discussed include the effects of information and transaction costs on informational and allocative market efficiency, bubbles and stock price dynamics, paradox of rational expectations and the principle of limited information, uncertainty and expectation hypotheses, oil price dynamics, and nonlinearity in asset price dynamics.
Book Synopsis The Collapse of Global Trade, Murky Protectionism, and the Crisis by : Richard E. Baldwin
Download or read book The Collapse of Global Trade, Murky Protectionism, and the Crisis written by Richard E. Baldwin and published by . This book was released on 2011-03 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global financial crisis of 2008/9 is the Great Depression of the 21st century. For many though, the similarities stop at the Wall Street Crash as the current generation of policymakers have acted quickly to avoid the mistakes of the past. Yet the global crisis has made room for mistakes all of its own. While governments have apparently kept to their word on refraining from protectionist measures in the style of 1930s tariffs, there has been a disturbing rise in "murky protectionism." Seemingly benign, these crisis-linked policies are twisted to favour domestic firms, workers and investors. This book, first published as an eBook on VoxEU.org in March 2009, brings together leading trade policy practitioners and experts - including Australian Trade Minister Simon Crean and former Mexican President Ernesto Zedillo. Initially its aim was to advise policymakers heading in to the G20 meeting in London, but since the threat of murky protectionism persists, so too do their warnings.
Book Synopsis Optimum Currency Areas: Is Southern Africa ready to form a Monetary Union? by : Christian Sorgenfrei
Download or read book Optimum Currency Areas: Is Southern Africa ready to form a Monetary Union? written by Christian Sorgenfrei and published by diplom.de. This book was released on 2010-11-18 with total page 87 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inhaltsangabe:Introduction and Course of Work: In 2007, at their meeting in Tanzania, the central bank governors of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) laid out a strategy to strengthen regional integration, containing the development of a common market by 2015, fixed exchange rates by 2016, and, ultimately, a monetary union with a single currency in 2018. In pursuit of this agenda, a free trade area absent of intra-regional tariffs was arranged in August 2008 with a regional customs union to follow this year. The currently fourteen member countries of the SADC committed themselves towards achieving economic convergence and to deepen monetary cooperation. In the 21st century, Africa finds itself increasingly separated from economic developments in the remaining world and fails to prosper from increased globalization. Despite a large abundance in natural resources, many countries have suffered from an extremely poor economic performance, which mainly originated from internal strives and weak and distortionary policies. Inward looking governments, conducting clientele policies, are focused on reaping economic rents rather than on fostering growth. Furthermore, tribal conflicts and civil war have sparked recurring border conflicts with neighboring countries. Although Africa has seen a large number of regional arrangements and trading blocs throughout the continent, the overall success for growth and trade expansion was limited. Against this background, the formation of a monetary union is believed to counteract economic and political weaknesses, to improve regional cooperation and to enhance both the political and economic standing in the world. A monetary union and a common currency entails both gains and losses for its members. On the cost side, countries in a monetary union effectively loose the ability to pursue independent monetary policies and to use the exchange rate as adjustment instrument to stabilize the economy. On the other hand, countries inside a monetary union benefit from reduced transaction costs and the elimination of internal exchange rate volatility. Furthermore, countries which suffer from weak internal stability and high inflation rates benefit by using the fixed exchange rate in a monetary union as external anchor. By transferring the power over monetary policy to a supranational central bank, the risk of homegrown inflation and currency devaluations is banished and economic agents are able to borrow at more [...]
Book Synopsis Optimum Currency Areas: A Monetary Union for Southern Africa by : Christian Sorgenfrei
Download or read book Optimum Currency Areas: A Monetary Union for Southern Africa written by Christian Sorgenfrei and published by Diplomica Verlag. This book was released on 2011-03 with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With the current situation in the European Monetary Union in mind, a Monetary Union in other parts of the world seems highly inadvisable. Nevertheless, Africa has some of the oldest Monetary arrangements in the world, dating back to the beginning of the 19th century. Is Africa particularly qualified for a Monetary Union? And furthermore, what features are necessary to make Monetary Arrangements between countries endurable? This study evaluates the prospects and the feasibility of a monetary union in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) from an economic point of view. Both the theory of optimum currency areas and the recent example of the European Monetary Union are employed to analyze the pros and cons of monetary unification. The theoretical implications are operationalized, first, by a broad analysis of economic and socio graphic data, and second, by estimating the degree of structural shock synchronization between SADC countries. Results obtained by an Autoregressive and Vector Autoregressive model indicate that a monetary union which includes all SADC members is neither desirable nor feasible in the foreseeable future. However, the study concludes that a small subset of countries, including South Africa, Namibia, Swaziland, Lesotho, Mozambique, Botswana and Zambia, could gain from forming a smaller monetary union.
Book Synopsis South—South Regional Financial Arrangements by : Diana Barrowclough
Download or read book South—South Regional Financial Arrangements written by Diana Barrowclough and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-01-18 with total page 361 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book shows how regional cooperation and integration have increased massively in scale and scope in recent years, as developing countries seek new ways to shield themselves from economic turbulence and to kick-start their economies in the face of stagnant global demand. The trend is partly a defense mechanism against the limitations of the international financial system, but also reflects a wider search for new and different growth paths more appropriate with developing countries’ increasing economic and political voice. As a consequence, the landscape of financial and monetary mechanisms has changed dramatically, especially in the ten years since the economic crisis of 2007–2008.
Book Synopsis International Financial Integration by : Mr.Gian Milesi-Ferretti
Download or read book International Financial Integration written by Mr.Gian Milesi-Ferretti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-04-01 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades, the foreign assets and liabilities of advanced economies have grown rapidly relative to GDP, with the increase in gross cross-holdings far exceeding changes in the size of net positions. Moreover, the portfolio equity and FDI categories have grown in importance relative to international debt stocks. This paper describes the broad trends in international financial integration for a sample of industrial countries and seeks to explain the cross-country and time-series variation in the size of international balance sheets. It also examines the behavior of the rates of return on foreign assets and liabilities, relating them to "market" returns.
