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Author : Jack Hirshleifer
Publisher : Wiley-Blackwell
ISBN 13 : 9780631162360
Total Pages : 306 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (623 download)
Download or read book Time, Uncertainty, and Information written by Jack Hirshleifer and published by Wiley-Blackwell. This book was released on 1989-01-01 with total page 306 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Ivo D. Dinov
Publisher : Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG
ISBN 13 : 3110697823
Total Pages : 489 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (16 download)
Download or read book Data Science written by Ivo D. Dinov and published by Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG. This book was released on 2021-12-06 with total page 489 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The amount of new information is constantly increasing, faster than our ability to fully interpret and utilize it to improve human experiences. Addressing this asymmetry requires novel and revolutionary scientific methods and effective human and artificial intelligence interfaces. By lifting the concept of time from a positive real number to a 2D complex time (kime), this book uncovers a connection between artificial intelligence (AI), data science, and quantum mechanics. It proposes a new mathematical foundation for data science based on raising the 4D spacetime to a higher dimension where longitudinal data (e.g., time-series) are represented as manifolds (e.g., kime-surfaces). This new framework enables the development of innovative data science analytical methods for model-based and model-free scientific inference, derived computed phenotyping, and statistical forecasting. The book provides a transdisciplinary bridge and a pragmatic mechanism to translate quantum mechanical principles, such as particles and wavefunctions, into data science concepts, such as datum and inference-functions. It includes many open mathematical problems that still need to be solved, technological challenges that need to be tackled, and computational statistics algorithms that have to be fully developed and validated. Spacekime analytics provide mechanisms to effectively handle, process, and interpret large, heterogeneous, and continuously-tracked digital information from multiple sources. The authors propose computational methods, probability model-based techniques, and analytical strategies to estimate, approximate, or simulate the complex time phases (kime directions). This allows transforming time-varying data, such as time-series observations, into higher-dimensional manifolds representing complex-valued and kime-indexed surfaces (kime-surfaces). The book includes many illustrations of model-based and model-free spacekime analytic techniques applied to economic forecasting, identification of functional brain activation, and high-dimensional cohort phenotyping. Specific case-study examples include unsupervised clustering using the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI), model-based inference using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data, and model-free inference using the UK Biobank data archive. The material includes mathematical, inferential, computational, and philosophical topics such as Heisenberg uncertainty principle and alternative approaches to large sample theory, where a few spacetime observations can be amplified by a series of derived, estimated, or simulated kime-phases. The authors extend Newton-Leibniz calculus of integration and differentiation to the spacekime manifold and discuss possible solutions to some of the "problems of time". The coverage also includes 5D spacekime formulations of classical 4D spacetime mathematical equations describing natural laws of physics, as well as, statistical articulation of spacekime analytics in a Bayesian inference framework. The steady increase of the volume and complexity of observed and recorded digital information drives the urgent need to develop novel data analytical strategies. Spacekime analytics represents one new data-analytic approach, which provides a mechanism to understand compound phenomena that are observed as multiplex longitudinal processes and computationally tracked by proxy measures. This book may be of interest to academic scholars, graduate students, postdoctoral fellows, artificial intelligence and machine learning engineers, biostatisticians, econometricians, and data analysts. Some of the material may also resonate with philosophers, futurists, astrophysicists, space industry technicians, biomedical researchers, health practitioners, and the general public.
Author : Paul Andre Harris
Publisher : BRILL
ISBN 13 : 9004138110
Total Pages : 278 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (41 download)
Download or read book Time and Uncertainty written by Paul Andre Harris and published by BRILL. This book was released on 2004-01-01 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The essays in this volume all originated at the 2001 conference of the International Society for the Study of Time. The theme 'Time and Uncertainty' sounds redundant, but the contributions try to come to terms with the irreducible openness of time and the impermanence of life. The essays from various disciplines have been grouped around 'fracture and rupture' (grappling with time and uncertainty as a breach) and 'rapture and structure (solving uncertainty into pattern).
Author : Sushil Bikhchandani
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1107433762
Total Pages : 509 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (74 download)
Download or read book The Analytics of Uncertainty and Information written by Sushil Bikhchandani and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-08-12 with total page 509 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There has been explosive progress in the economic theory of uncertainty and information in the past few decades. This subject is now taught not only in departments of economics but also in professional schools and programs oriented toward business, government and administration, and public policy. This book attempts to unify the subject matter in a simple, accessible manner. Part I of the book focuses on the economics of uncertainty; Part II examines the economics of information. This revised and updated second edition places a greater focus on game theory. New topics include posted-price markets, mechanism design, common-value auctions, and the one-shot deviation principle for repeated games.
Author : David M. Edelstein
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781501707568
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (75 download)
Download or read book Over the Horizon written by David M. Edelstein and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Time, uncertainty, and great power politics -- The arrival of imperial Germany -- The rise of the United States -- The resurgence of interwar Germany -- The origins of the Cold War -- Conclusion and the rise of China
Author : Efstratios Nikolaidis
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 9781138115095
Total Pages : 538 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (15 download)
Download or read book Design Decisions Under Uncertainty with Limited Information written by Efstratios Nikolaidis and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2017-06-16 with total page 538 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Today's business environment involves design decisions with significant uncertainty. To succeed, decision-makers should replace deterministic methods with a risk-based approach that accounts for the decision maker¿s risk tolerance. In many problems, it is impractical to collect data because rare or one-time events are involved. Therefore, we need a methodology to model uncertainty and make choices when we have limited information. This methodology must use all available information and rely only on assumptions that are supported by evidence. This book explains theories and tools to represent uncertainty using both data and expert judgment. It teaches the reader how to make design or business decisions when there is limited information with these tools. Readers will learn a structured, risk-based approach, which is based on common sense principles, for design and business decisions. These decisions are consistent with the decision-maker¿s risk attitude. The book is exceptionally suited as educational material because it uses everyday language and real-life examples to elucidate concepts. It demonstrates how these concepts touch our lives through many practical examples, questions and exercises. These are designed to help students learn that first they should understand a problem and then establish a strategy for solving it, instead of using trial-and-error approaches. This volume is intended for undergraduate and graduate courses in mechanical, civil, industrial, aerospace, and ocean engineering and for researchers and professionals in these disciplines. It will also benefit managers and students in business administration who want to make good decisions with limited information.
Author : Michel Syrett
Publisher : The Economist
ISBN 13 : 1610395131
Total Pages : 224 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (13 download)
Download or read book Managing Uncertainty written by Michel Syrett and published by The Economist. This book was released on 2014-02-25 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Managing uncertainty has become a new business imperative. Technological discontinuities, regulatory upheavals, geopolitical shocks, abrupt shifts in consumer tastes or behavior, and many other factors have emerged or intensified in recent years and together conspire to undermine even the most carefully constructed business strategies. Managing Uncertainty: Strategies for Surviving and Thriving in Turbulent Times addresses these new challenges, assessing the sources of business turbulence, how to classify uncertainty, and the different ways in which uncertainty can be embraced to allow greater innovation and growth. Drawing on examples from around the world, the book presents the most recent ideas on what it means to manage uncertainty, from practitioners, academics, and consultants. Addresses the challenges of managing uncertainty in business Presents a step-by-step guide to managing business uncertainty Draws examples from major international companies, including Intel, Procter & Gamble, Siemens, Boeing, Quinetiq, Philips, China Telecom, Ford, Apple, Shell, Glaxo SmithKline and many more Written for business leaders and managers looking for new ways to ensure that their businesses continue to thrive in a world of increasing complexity, Managing Uncertainty presents new and innovative ideas about reducing risk by understanding difficult-to-predict shifts.
Author : George Klir
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9783790812428
Total Pages : 196 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (124 download)
Download or read book Uncertainty-Based Information written by George Klir and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1999-10-19 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Information is precious. It reduces our uncertainty in making decisions. Knowledge about the outcome of an uncertain event gives the possessor an advantage. It changes the course of lives, nations, and history itself. Information is the food of Maxwell's demon. His power comes from know ing which particles are hot and which particles are cold. His existence was paradoxical to classical physics and only the realization that information too was a source of power led to his taming. Information has recently become a commodity, traded and sold like or ange juice or hog bellies. Colleges give degrees in information science and information management. Technology of the computer age has provided access to information in overwhelming quantity. Information has become something worth studying in its own right. The purpose of this volume is to introduce key developments and results in the area of generalized information theory, a theory that deals with uncertainty-based information within mathematical frameworks that are broader than classical set theory and probability theory. The volume is organized as follows.
Author : Torleif Halkjelsvik
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319749536
Total Pages : 117 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (197 download)
Download or read book Time Predictions written by Torleif Halkjelsvik and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-02-28 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is published open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. Predicting the time needed to complete a project, task or daily activity can be difficult and people frequently underestimate how long an activity will take. This book sheds light on why and when this happens, what we should do to avoid it and how to give more realistic time predictions. It describes methods for predicting time usage in situations with high uncertainty, explains why two plus two is usually more than four in time prediction contexts, reports on research on time prediction biases, and summarizes the evidence in support of different time prediction methods and principles. Based on a comprehensive review of the research, it is the first book summarizing what we know about judgment-based time predictions. Large parts of the book are directed toward people wishing to achieve better time predictions in their professional life, such as project managers, graphic designers, architects, engineers, film producers, consultants, software developers, or anyone else in need of realistic time usage predictions. It is also of benefit to those with a general interest in judgment and decision-making or those who want to improve their ability to predict and plan ahead in daily life.
Author : Ralph Hertwig
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262353148
Total Pages : 489 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (623 download)
Download or read book Taming Uncertainty written by Ralph Hertwig and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-08-13 with total page 489 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An examination of the cognitive tools that the mind uses to grapple with uncertainty in the real world. How do humans navigate uncertainty, continuously making near-effortless decisions and predictions even under conditions of imperfect knowledge, high complexity, and extreme time pressure? Taming Uncertainty argues that the human mind has developed tools to grapple with uncertainty. Unlike much previous scholarship in psychology and economics, this approach is rooted in what is known about what real minds can do. Rather than reducing the human response to uncertainty to an act of juggling probabilities, the authors propose that the human cognitive system has specific tools for dealing with different forms of uncertainty. They identify three types of tools: simple heuristics, tools for information search, and tools for harnessing the wisdom of others. This set of strategies for making predictions, inferences, and decisions constitute the mind's adaptive toolbox. The authors show how these three dimensions of human decision making are integrated and they argue that the toolbox, its cognitive foundation, and the environment are in constant flux and subject to developmental change. They demonstrate that each cognitive tool can be analyzed through the concept of ecological rationality—that is, the fit between specific tools and specific environments. Chapters deal with such specific instances of decision making as food choice architecture, intertemporal choice, financial uncertainty, pedestrian navigation, and adolescent behavior.
Author : Pema Chödrön
Publisher : Shambhala Publications
ISBN 13 : 1590305558
Total Pages : 255 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (93 download)
Download or read book Comfortable with Uncertainty written by Pema Chödrön and published by Shambhala Publications. This book was released on 2008 with total page 255 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tibetan Buddhist nun Pema Chodron offers short, stand-alone readings designed to help readers cultivate compassion and awareness amid the challenges of daily living.
Author : Frank H. Knight
Publisher : Cosimo, Inc.
ISBN 13 : 1602060053
Total Pages : 401 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (2 download)
Download or read book Risk, Uncertainty and Profit written by Frank H. Knight and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2006-11-01 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.
Author : Martin Schwirn
Publisher : Red Wheel/Weiser
ISBN 13 : 1632657430
Total Pages : 228 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (326 download)
Download or read book Small Data, Big Disruptions written by Martin Schwirn and published by Red Wheel/Weiser. This book was released on 2021-04-15 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A method to find and connect the small data clues that show what the future’s big picture will look like. “Strategy decisions are like playing high-stakes blackjack, and scanning is the technique for counting cards. Martin Schwirn isn’t a pro gambler, but an expert in scanning.” —Bill Ralston, cofounder of Strategic Business Insights and author of Scenario Planning Handbook An organization’s future success depends on their decision makers’ ability to anticipate changes and disruptions in the marketplace. But how do you get information about tomorrow today? How can your decisions today account for tomorrow’s uncertainties? Small Data, Big Disruptions presents a tool kit to foresee coming changes: Understand why big data will not help you with understanding tomorrow’s disruptions. The future starts with small data—first. Learn the proven 4-step process to capture small data that help envision the future. See examples of how the process anticipated major disruptions. Implement the process in your organization and learn how to initiate meaningful actions. Small Data, Big Disruptions provides the information you need to anticipate the future, understand tomorrow’s market dynamics, and make the necessary decisions to meet the future on your terms. Small Data, Big Disruptions lets you exploit the period between the moment you could know about emerging disruptions and the moment most everybody will know about it. It’s the difference between being ahead of the curve and struggling to catch up.
Author : Melanie E. Kreye
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1317005503
Total Pages : 162 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (17 download)
Download or read book Uncertainty and Behaviour written by Melanie E. Kreye and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-04-14 with total page 162 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty affects us in our everyday lives, and in a wide range of situations but how do individuals and indeed organisations respond to uncertainty and how does it impact their decision-making and actions? Based on the latest developments in academic research, the author offers solid advice on how to manage uncertainty in every-day life, bringing a new perspective to these issues and extrapolating this to offer implications for an organisational and managerial context. The author brings this emerging area of research to a wider audience by: Tying together insights from various fields including psychology, engineering, business and management. Creating a framework for usefully applying the research concepts in every-day life. Extrapolating insights from the psychology of individual decision makers to the organisational context and managerial decision-making. Creating highly applicable and impactful recommendations for how managers, organisations, and every day people can understand and manage uncertainty in their life. The book is divided into two main parts. Part I deals with the behaviour of individuals facing uncertainty and includes accessible explanations and examples of every-day applications, while Part II deals with behaviour in organisations facing uncertainty, where insights from Part I are combined and related to the organisational and work context to explore how, for example, (mis)-perceptions and decision-making biases impact managerial life. This is a must read for both managers and those who are seeking to better understand their own behaviour and management approach.
Author : Andy Clark
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN 13 : 0190217014
Total Pages : 425 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (92 download)
Download or read book Surfing Uncertainty written by Andy Clark and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2016 with total page 425 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Exciting new theories in neuroscience, psychology, and artificial intelligence are revealing minds like ours as predictive minds, forever trying to guess the incoming streams of sensory stimulation before they arrive. In this up-to-the-minute treatment, philosopher and cognitive scientist Andy Clark explores new ways of thinking about perception, action, and the embodied mind.
Author : John Broome
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 111945123X
Total Pages : 272 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (194 download)
Download or read book Weighing Goods written by John Broome and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2017-07-05 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study uses techniques from economics to illuminate fundamental questions in ethics, particularly in the foundations of utilitarianism. Topics considered include the nature of teleological ethics, the foundations of decision theory, the value of equality and the moral significance of a person's continuing identity through time.
Author : Phaedra Daipha
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 022629868X
Total Pages : 280 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (262 download)
Download or read book Masters of Uncertainty written by Phaedra Daipha and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2015-11-17 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "In Masters of Uncertainty, Phaedra Daipha offers a new framework for understanding decision-making practice after spending years immersed in a northeastern office of the National Weather Service. Arguing that forecasters have made a virtue of the unpredictability of the weather, Daipha shows how they enlist an onmivorous appetite for information and improvisational collage techniques to create a locally meaningful forecast on their computer screens. This richly detailed and lucidly written book advances a theory of decision making that foregrounds the pragmatic and situated nature of expert cognition and casts new light on how we make decisions in the digital age"--Page {4] of cover.
