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Author : Jack Hirshleifer
Publisher : Wiley-Blackwell
ISBN 13 : 9780631162360
Total Pages : 306 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (623 download)
Download or read book Time, Uncertainty, and Information written by Jack Hirshleifer and published by Wiley-Blackwell. This book was released on 1989-01-01 with total page 306 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Jack Hirshleifer
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (136 download)
Download or read book Time, Uncertainty, and Information written by Jack Hirshleifer and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Paul Andre Harris
Publisher : BRILL
ISBN 13 : 9004138110
Total Pages : 278 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (41 download)
Download or read book Time and Uncertainty written by Paul Andre Harris and published by BRILL. This book was released on 2004-01-01 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The essays in this volume all originated at the 2001 conference of the International Society for the Study of Time. The theme 'Time and Uncertainty' sounds redundant, but the contributions try to come to terms with the irreducible openness of time and the impermanence of life. The essays from various disciplines have been grouped around 'fracture and rupture' (grappling with time and uncertainty as a breach) and 'rapture and structure (solving uncertainty into pattern).
Author : Jean-Jacques Laffont
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262121361
Total Pages : 312 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (213 download)
Download or read book Economie de L'incertain Et de L'information written by Jean-Jacques Laffont and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1989 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Economics of Uncertainty and Information may be used in conjunction with Loffont's Fundamentals of Economics in an advanced course in microeconomics.
Author : Sushil Bikhchandani
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1107433762
Total Pages : 509 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (74 download)
Download or read book The Analytics of Uncertainty and Information written by Sushil Bikhchandani and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-08-12 with total page 509 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There has been explosive progress in the economic theory of uncertainty and information in the past few decades. This subject is now taught not only in departments of economics but also in professional schools and programs oriented toward business, government and administration, and public policy. This book attempts to unify the subject matter in a simple, accessible manner. Part I of the book focuses on the economics of uncertainty; Part II examines the economics of information. This revised and updated second edition places a greater focus on game theory. New topics include posted-price markets, mechanism design, common-value auctions, and the one-shot deviation principle for repeated games.
Author : Ivo D. Dinov
Publisher : Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG
ISBN 13 : 3110697823
Total Pages : 489 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (16 download)
Download or read book Data Science written by Ivo D. Dinov and published by Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG. This book was released on 2021-12-06 with total page 489 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The amount of new information is constantly increasing, faster than our ability to fully interpret and utilize it to improve human experiences. Addressing this asymmetry requires novel and revolutionary scientific methods and effective human and artificial intelligence interfaces. By lifting the concept of time from a positive real number to a 2D complex time (kime), this book uncovers a connection between artificial intelligence (AI), data science, and quantum mechanics. It proposes a new mathematical foundation for data science based on raising the 4D spacetime to a higher dimension where longitudinal data (e.g., time-series) are represented as manifolds (e.g., kime-surfaces). This new framework enables the development of innovative data science analytical methods for model-based and model-free scientific inference, derived computed phenotyping, and statistical forecasting. The book provides a transdisciplinary bridge and a pragmatic mechanism to translate quantum mechanical principles, such as particles and wavefunctions, into data science concepts, such as datum and inference-functions. It includes many open mathematical problems that still need to be solved, technological challenges that need to be tackled, and computational statistics algorithms that have to be fully developed and validated. Spacekime analytics provide mechanisms to effectively handle, process, and interpret large, heterogeneous, and continuously-tracked digital information from multiple sources. The authors propose computational methods, probability model-based techniques, and analytical strategies to estimate, approximate, or simulate the complex time phases (kime directions). This allows transforming time-varying data, such as time-series observations, into higher-dimensional manifolds representing complex-valued and kime-indexed surfaces (kime-surfaces). The book includes many illustrations of model-based and model-free spacekime analytic techniques applied to economic forecasting, identification of functional brain activation, and high-dimensional cohort phenotyping. Specific case-study examples include unsupervised clustering using the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI), model-based inference using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data, and model-free inference using the UK Biobank data archive. The material includes mathematical, inferential, computational, and philosophical topics such as Heisenberg uncertainty principle and alternative approaches to large sample theory, where a few spacetime observations can be amplified by a series of derived, estimated, or simulated kime-phases. The authors extend Newton-Leibniz calculus of integration and differentiation to the spacekime manifold and discuss possible solutions to some of the "problems of time". The coverage also includes 5D spacekime formulations of classical 4D spacetime mathematical equations describing natural laws of physics, as well as, statistical articulation of spacekime analytics in a Bayesian inference framework. The steady increase of the volume and complexity of observed and recorded digital information drives the urgent need to develop novel data analytical strategies. Spacekime analytics represents one new data-analytic approach, which provides a mechanism to understand compound phenomena that are observed as multiplex longitudinal processes and computationally tracked by proxy measures. This book may be of interest to academic scholars, graduate students, postdoctoral fellows, artificial intelligence and machine learning engineers, biostatisticians, econometricians, and data analysts. Some of the material may also resonate with philosophers, futurists, astrophysicists, space industry technicians, biomedical researchers, health practitioners, and the general public.
Author : Efstratios Nikolaidis
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 9781138115095
Total Pages : 538 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (15 download)
Download or read book Design Decisions Under Uncertainty with Limited Information written by Efstratios Nikolaidis and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2017-06-16 with total page 538 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Today's business environment involves design decisions with significant uncertainty. To succeed, decision-makers should replace deterministic methods with a risk-based approach that accounts for the decision maker¿s risk tolerance. In many problems, it is impractical to collect data because rare or one-time events are involved. Therefore, we need a methodology to model uncertainty and make choices when we have limited information. This methodology must use all available information and rely only on assumptions that are supported by evidence. This book explains theories and tools to represent uncertainty using both data and expert judgment. It teaches the reader how to make design or business decisions when there is limited information with these tools. Readers will learn a structured, risk-based approach, which is based on common sense principles, for design and business decisions. These decisions are consistent with the decision-maker¿s risk attitude. The book is exceptionally suited as educational material because it uses everyday language and real-life examples to elucidate concepts. It demonstrates how these concepts touch our lives through many practical examples, questions and exercises. These are designed to help students learn that first they should understand a problem and then establish a strategy for solving it, instead of using trial-and-error approaches. This volume is intended for undergraduate and graduate courses in mechanical, civil, industrial, aerospace, and ocean engineering and for researchers and professionals in these disciplines. It will also benefit managers and students in business administration who want to make good decisions with limited information.
Author : Paul Gibbs
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3030159701
Total Pages : 301 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (31 download)
Download or read book Values of the University in a Time of Uncertainty written by Paul Gibbs and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-06-17 with total page 301 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This deliberately wide-ranging book addresses issues related to trust, compassion, well-being, grace, dignity and integrity. It explores these within the context of higher education, giving existential and empirical accounts of how these moral duties can be expressed within the academy and why they ought to be. The chapters range from values used in the marketing and management of institutions to their realisation in therapeutic and teacher training spaces. The book opens with a specific introduction which positions the work and outlines the context of duties and obligations at play. This is followed by two distinct but related sections including chapters on theoretical issues, organisational practices and personal praxis. The first part is more abstract and theoretical, the second locates the values discussed within the practices of the university. In doing so the book encompasses a wide range of issues from multi-disciplinary and geo-political regions. The authors are a mixture of world-leading authorities on values in higher education and earlier career researchers, who are nonetheless equally passionate contributors. This mix gives the book vibrancy and offers insight which appeals to both an academic and managerial readership.
Author : Michel Syrett
Publisher : The Economist
ISBN 13 : 1610395131
Total Pages : 170 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (13 download)
Download or read book Managing Uncertainty written by Michel Syrett and published by The Economist. This book was released on 2014-02-25 with total page 170 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Managing uncertainty has become a new business imperative. Technological discontinuities, regulatory upheavals, geopolitical shocks, abrupt shifts in consumer tastes or behavior, and many other factors have emerged or intensified in recent years and together conspire to undermine even the most carefully constructed business strategies. Managing Uncertainty: Strategies for Surviving and Thriving in Turbulent Times addresses these new challenges, assessing the sources of business turbulence, how to classify uncertainty, and the different ways in which uncertainty can be embraced to allow greater innovation and growth. Drawing on examples from around the world, the book presents the most recent ideas on what it means to manage uncertainty, from practitioners, academics, and consultants. • Addresses the challenges of managing uncertainty in business • Presents a step-by-step guide to managing business uncertainty • Draws examples from major international companies, including Intel, Procter & Gamble, Siemens, Boeing, Quinetiq, Philips, China Telecom, Ford, Apple, Shell, Glaxo SmithKline and many more Written for business leaders and managers looking for new ways to ensure that their businesses continue to thrive in a world of increasing complexity, Managing Uncertainty presents new and innovative ideas about reducing risk by understanding difficult-to-predict shifts.
Author : Jonathan Fields
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 1591845661
Total Pages : 241 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (918 download)
Download or read book Uncertainty written by Jonathan Fields and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2012-11-06 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Jonathan Fields knows the risks-and potential power-of uncertainty. He gave up a six-figure income as a lawyer to make $12 an hour as a personal trainer. Then, married with a 3-month old baby, he signed a lease to launch a yoga center in the heart of New York City. . . the day before 9/11. But he survived, and along the way he developed a fresh approach to transforming uncertainty, risk of loss, and exposure to judgment into catalysts for innovation, creation, and achievement. In business, art, and life, creating on a world-class level demands bold action and leaps of faith in the face of great uncertainty. But that uncertainty can lead to fear, anxiety, paralysis, and destruction. It can gut creativity and stifle innovation. It can keep you from taking the risks necessary to do great work and craft a deeply-rewarding life. And it can bring companies that rely on innovation grinding to a halt. That is, unless you know how to use it to your advantage. Fields draws on leading-edge technology, cognitive science, and ancient awareness-focusing techniques in a fresh, practical, nondogmatic way. His approach enables creativity and productivity on an entirely different level and can turn the once-tortuous journey into a more enjoyable quest.
Author : Pema Chödrön
Publisher : Shambhala Publications
ISBN 13 : 1590305558
Total Pages : 255 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (93 download)
Download or read book Comfortable with Uncertainty written by Pema Chödrön and published by Shambhala Publications. This book was released on 2008 with total page 255 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tibetan Buddhist nun Pema Chodron offers short, stand-alone readings designed to help readers cultivate compassion and awareness amid the challenges of daily living.
Author : Joseph B. Kadane
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1351683365
Total Pages : 525 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (516 download)
Download or read book Principles of Uncertainty written by Joseph B. Kadane and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2020-11-25 with total page 525 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for the first edition: Principles of Uncertainty is a profound and mesmerising book on the foundations and principles of subjectivist or behaviouristic Bayesian analysis. ... the book is a pleasure to read. And highly recommended for teaching as it can be used at many different levels. ... A must-read for sure!—Christian Robert, CHANCE It's a lovely book, one that I hope will be widely adopted as a course textbook. —Michael Jordan, University of California, Berkeley, USA Like the prize-winning first edition, Principles of Uncertainty, Second Edition is an accessible, comprehensive text on the theory of Bayesian Statistics written in an appealing, inviting style, and packed with interesting examples. It presents an introduction to the subjective Bayesian approach which has played a pivotal role in game theory, economics, and the recent boom in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. This new edition has been updated throughout and features new material on Nonparametric Bayesian Methods, the Dirichlet distribution, a simple proof of the central limit theorem, and new problems. Key Features: First edition won the 2011 DeGroot Prize Well-written introduction to theory of Bayesian statistics Each of the introductory chapters begins by introducing one new concept or assumption Uses "just-in-time mathematics"—the introduction to mathematical ideas just before they are applied
Author : David M. Edelstein
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781501707568
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (75 download)
Download or read book Over the Horizon written by David M. Edelstein and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Time, uncertainty, and great power politics -- The arrival of imperial Germany -- The rise of the United States -- The resurgence of interwar Germany -- The origins of the Cold War -- Conclusion and the rise of China
Author : Torleif Halkjelsvik
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319749536
Total Pages : 117 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (197 download)
Download or read book Time Predictions written by Torleif Halkjelsvik and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-02-28 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is published open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. Predicting the time needed to complete a project, task or daily activity can be difficult and people frequently underestimate how long an activity will take. This book sheds light on why and when this happens, what we should do to avoid it and how to give more realistic time predictions. It describes methods for predicting time usage in situations with high uncertainty, explains why two plus two is usually more than four in time prediction contexts, reports on research on time prediction biases, and summarizes the evidence in support of different time prediction methods and principles. Based on a comprehensive review of the research, it is the first book summarizing what we know about judgment-based time predictions. Large parts of the book are directed toward people wishing to achieve better time predictions in their professional life, such as project managers, graphic designers, architects, engineers, film producers, consultants, software developers, or anyone else in need of realistic time usage predictions. It is also of benefit to those with a general interest in judgment and decision-making or those who want to improve their ability to predict and plan ahead in daily life.
Author : Ralph Hertwig
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262353148
Total Pages : 489 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (623 download)
Download or read book Taming Uncertainty written by Ralph Hertwig and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-08-13 with total page 489 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An examination of the cognitive tools that the mind uses to grapple with uncertainty in the real world. How do humans navigate uncertainty, continuously making near-effortless decisions and predictions even under conditions of imperfect knowledge, high complexity, and extreme time pressure? Taming Uncertainty argues that the human mind has developed tools to grapple with uncertainty. Unlike much previous scholarship in psychology and economics, this approach is rooted in what is known about what real minds can do. Rather than reducing the human response to uncertainty to an act of juggling probabilities, the authors propose that the human cognitive system has specific tools for dealing with different forms of uncertainty. They identify three types of tools: simple heuristics, tools for information search, and tools for harnessing the wisdom of others. This set of strategies for making predictions, inferences, and decisions constitute the mind's adaptive toolbox. The authors show how these three dimensions of human decision making are integrated and they argue that the toolbox, its cognitive foundation, and the environment are in constant flux and subject to developmental change. They demonstrate that each cognitive tool can be analyzed through the concept of ecological rationality—that is, the fit between specific tools and specific environments. Chapters deal with such specific instances of decision making as food choice architecture, intertemporal choice, financial uncertainty, pedestrian navigation, and adolescent behavior.
Author : Frank H. Knight
Publisher : Cosimo, Inc.
ISBN 13 : 1602060053
Total Pages : 401 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (2 download)
Download or read book Risk, Uncertainty and Profit written by Frank H. Knight and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2006-11-01 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.
Author : Douglas W. Hubbard
Publisher : Wiley
ISBN 13 : 0470625678
Total Pages : 320 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (76 download)
Download or read book How to Measure Anything written by Douglas W. Hubbard and published by Wiley. This book was released on 2010-03-25 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Now updated with new research and even more intuitive explanations, a demystifying explanation of how managers can inform themselves to make less risky, more profitable business decisions This insightful and eloquent book will show you how to measure those things in your own business that, until now, you may have considered "immeasurable," including customer satisfaction, organizational flexibility, technology risk, and technology ROI. Adds even more intuitive explanations of powerful measurement methods and shows how they can be applied to areas such as risk management and customer satisfaction Continues to boldly assert that any perception of "immeasurability" is based on certain popular misconceptions about measurement and measurement methods Shows the common reasoning for calling something immeasurable, and sets out to correct those ideas Offers practical methods for measuring a variety of "intangibles" Adds recent research, especially in regards to methods that seem like measurement, but are in fact a kind of "placebo effect" for management – and explains how to tell effective methods from management mythology Written by recognized expert Douglas Hubbard-creator of Applied Information Economics-How to Measure Anything, Second Edition illustrates how the author has used his approach across various industries and how any problem, no matter how difficult, ill defined, or uncertain can lend itself to measurement using proven methods.
