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Three Essays On The Us Business Cycle Expectations Formation And Model Comparison
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Book Synopsis Three Essays on the Us Business Cycle, Expectations Formation and Model Comparison by : Angelia Lee Grant
Download or read book Three Essays on the Us Business Cycle, Expectations Formation and Model Comparison written by Angelia Lee Grant and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis contributes to the vast literature on understanding the disturbances that cause recessions, testing the importance of the assumption of rational expectations in macroeconomic models, and assessing model selection criteria. The main objective is to assess structural instabilities in macroeconomic models and to develop a new econometric methodology to compare different assumptions regarding expectations formation. Chapter 2 examines the role of oil price, demand, supply and monetary policy shocks during the 2001 US slowdown and Great Recession. It replicates the structural vector autoregression (VAR) of Peersman (2005) and extends it with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility. Significant time variation is found in some impulse responses, with evidence that the constant coefficients VAR is erroneously representing structural instabilities as shocks. All models find that a combination of shocks caused the 2001 slowdown and Great Recession, but the role of individual shocks differs across models. Chapter 3 assesses the assumption of rational expectations versus adaptive learning in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for the US economy. Using the framework in Smets and Wouters (2007) and Slobodyan and Wouters (2012), it finds that expectations implied by the rational expectations model are comparable to the adaptive learning models for actual and survey data on consumption and inflation. This chapter also formally assesses the overall fit of the model with different assumptions regarding expectations formation using the deviance information criterion (DIC), which is not commonly used to compare DSGE models. It finds that the rational expectations model is comparable to the adaptive learning models according to this criterion. Chapter 4 proposes fast algorithms for computing the DIC based on the integrated likelihood for a variety of high-dimensional latent variable models. The DIC has been a widely used Bayesian model comparison criterion since Spiegelhalter et al. (2002) introduced the concept and Celeux et al. (2006) introduced a number of alternative definitions for latent variable models. However, recent studies have cautioned against the use of some of these variants. While the DIC computed using the integrated likelihood seems to perform well, it is rarely used in practice due to computational burden. This chapter shows that the DICs based on the integrated likelihoods have much smaller numerical standard errors compared to the other DICs.
Book Synopsis Three Essays on the Role of Expectations in Business Cycles by : Rémi Vivès
Download or read book Three Essays on the Role of Expectations in Business Cycles written by Rémi Vivès and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this thesis, I investigate the role of expectations in business cycles by studying three different kinds of expectations. First, I focus on a theoretical explanation of business cycles generated by changes in expectations which turn out to be self-fulfilling. This chapter improves a puzzle from the sunspot literature, thereby giving more evidence towards an interpretation of business cycles based on self-fulfilling prophecies. Second, I empirically analyze the propagation mechanisms of central bank announcements through changes in market participants' beliefs. This chapter shows that credible announcements about future unconventional monetary policies can be used as a coordination device in a sovereign debt crisis framework. Third, I study a broader concept of expectations and investigate the predictive power of political climate on the pricing of sovereign risk. This chapter shows that political climate provides additional predictive power beyond the traditional determinants of sovereign bond spreads. In order to interrogate the role of expectations in business cycles from multiple angles, I use a variety of methodologies in this thesis, including theoretical and empirical analyses, web scraping, machine learning, and textual analysis. In addition, this thesis uses innovative data from the social media platform Twitter. Regardless of my methodology, all my results convey the same message: expectations matter, both for economic research and economically sound policy-making.
Book Synopsis Three Essays on the Role of Expectations in Dynamic Economic Models by : Stephen Edwin Spear
Download or read book Three Essays on the Role of Expectations in Dynamic Economic Models written by Stephen Edwin Spear and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Three Essays on the Business Cycle by : Changok Choi
Download or read book Three Essays on the Business Cycle written by Changok Choi and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 418 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Theory of Money and Financial Institutions by : Martin Shubik
Download or read book The Theory of Money and Financial Institutions written by Martin Shubik and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1999 with total page 472 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This first volume in a three-volume exposition of Shubik's vision of "mathematical institutional economics" explores a one-period approach to economic exchange with money, debt, and bankruptcy. This is the first volume in a three-volume exposition of Martin Shubik's vision of "mathematical institutional economics"--a term he coined in 1959 to describe the theoretical underpinnings needed for the construction of an economic dynamics. The goal is to develop a process-oriented theory of money and financial institutions that reconciles micro- and macroeconomics, using as a prime tool the theory of games in strategic and extensive form. The approach involves a search for minimal financial institutions that appear as a logical, technological, and institutional necessity, as part of the "rules of the game." Money and financial institutions are assumed to be the basic elements of the network that transmits the sociopolitical imperatives to the economy. Volume 1 deals with a one-period approach to economic exchange with money, debt, and bankruptcy. Volume 2 explores the new economic features that arise when we consider multi-period finite and infinite horizon economies. Volume 3 will consider the specific role of financial institutions and government, and formulate the economic financial control problem linking micro- and macroeconomics.
Book Synopsis The American Business Cycle by : Robert J. Gordon
Download or read book The American Business Cycle written by Robert J. Gordon and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 882 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades the American economy has experienced the worst peace-time inflation in its history and the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression. These circumstances have prompted renewed interest in the concept of business cycles, which Joseph Schumpeter suggested are "like the beat of the heart, of the essence of the organism that displays them." In The American Business Cycle, some of the most prominent macroeconomics in the United States focuses on the questions, To what extent are business cycles propelled by external shocks? How have post-1946 cycles differed from earlier cycles? And, what are the major factors that contribute to business cycles? They extend their investigation in some areas as far back as 1875 to afford a deeper understanding of both economic history and the most recent economic fluctuations. Seven papers address specific aspects of economic activity: consumption, investment, inventory change, fiscal policy, monetary behavior, open economy, and the labor market. Five papers focus on aggregate economic activity. In a number of cases, the papers present findings that challenge widely accepted models and assumptions. In addition to its substantive findings, The American Business Cycle includes an appendix containing both the first published history of the NBER business-cycle dating chronology and many previously unpublished historical data series.
Book Synopsis Business Cycles by : Victor Zarnowitz
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 613 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
Book Synopsis Real Business Cycles by : James Hartley
Download or read book Real Business Cycles written by James Hartley and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-07-04 with total page 684 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Real Business Cycle theory combines the remains of monetarism with the new classical macroeconomics, and has become one of the dominant approaches within contemporary macroeconomics today. This volume presents: * the authoritative anthology in RBC. The work contains the major articles introducing and extending the theory as well as critical literature * an extensive introduction which contains an expository summary and critical evaluation of RBC theory * comprehensive coverage and balance between seminal papers and extensions; proponents and critics; and theory and empirics. Macroeconomics is a compulsory element in most economics courses, and this book will be an essential guide to one of its major theories.
Book Synopsis Hysteresis and Business Cycles by : Ms.Valerie Cerra
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Book Synopsis Analysing Modern Business Cycles: Essays Honoring Geoffrey H.Moore by : Philip A. Klein
Download or read book Analysing Modern Business Cycles: Essays Honoring Geoffrey H.Moore written by Philip A. Klein and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-07-25 with total page 253 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This "Festschrift" honours Geoffrey H. Moore's life-long contribution to the study of business cycles. After some analysts had concluded that business cycles were dead, renewed economic turbulence in the 1970s and 1980s brought new life to the subject. The study of business cycles now encompasses the global economic system, and this work aims to push back the frontiers of knowledge.
Book Synopsis Three Essays in International Economics by : Gaofeng Han
Download or read book Three Essays in International Economics written by Gaofeng Han and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis International Journal of Forecasting by : International institute of forecasters
Download or read book International Journal of Forecasting written by International institute of forecasters and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Analyzing Modern Business Cycles: Essays Honoring by : Philip A Klein
Download or read book Analyzing Modern Business Cycles: Essays Honoring written by Philip A Klein and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-10-03 with total page 356 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This title was first published in 1990.
Book Synopsis Business Cycles and Financial Crises by : A. W. Mullineux
Download or read book Business Cycles and Financial Crises written by A. W. Mullineux and published by Bookboon. This book was released on 1990 with total page 146 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Consumer Expectations by : Richard Thomas Curtin
Download or read book Consumer Expectations written by Richard Thomas Curtin and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019-02-07 with total page 365 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Proposes a new comprehensive theory about how expectations are formed and how they shape the macro economy.
Book Synopsis Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova by : Juan J. Dolado
Download or read book Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova written by Juan J. Dolado and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2022-09-16 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Both parts of Volume 44 of Advances in Econometrics pay tribute to Fabio Canova for his major contributions to economics over the last four decades.
Book Synopsis American Doctoral Dissertations by :
Download or read book American Doctoral Dissertations written by and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 784 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
