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Three Essays On Modeling Information Around Monetary Policy
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Book Synopsis Three Essays on Modeling Information Around Monetary Policy by : Joseph Saia
Download or read book Three Essays on Modeling Information Around Monetary Policy written by Joseph Saia and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation revolves around robustly measuring and using the information sets of the centralbank and financial markets in order to measure exogenous monetary policy. Modern central banks aggressively use all the available information at their disposal to effectively set monetary policy. This problem of "foresight" renders traditional time series methods ineffective; the information edge of central banks is too large. In the first chapter, I discuss refinements to existing narrative methods, which attempt to the central bank's own forecasts to capture the information set of the central bank, thus removing their information edge over the econometrician. In the second chapter, I explore how the information sets of financial agents differ central banks and show that there is little direct information transfer between central banks and financial markets around monetary policy actions. Finally, the third chapter details how to use the information sets of financial sector actors to estimate exogenous monetary policy actions that is robust to financial sector revisions about the economy which can be due to the monetary policy actions.
Book Synopsis Three Essays on Monetary Policy and Financial Development by : Xiaodai Xin
Download or read book Three Essays on Monetary Policy and Financial Development written by Xiaodai Xin and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: Both economic growth and stabilization require a well-functioning financial system, which includes the central bank and private financial institutions. This dissertation is comprised of three essays on monetary policy and financial development which are related to the roles of the central bank and private financial institutions. To better stabilize the economy, a central bank needs to formulate an optimal strategy for monetary policy and pursues an appropriate objective (targeting regime). In a forward-looking New Keynesian model with persistent output and inflation, the first essay (chapter 2) evaluates a broad hybrid targeting regime when the central bank operates under discretionary monetary policy. By employing the numerical analysis and comparing the performance of different targeting regimes, I find that the hybrid targeting regime yields a social loss closest to that under the optimal committed policy, generating a better outcome than other policy regimes. The second essay (chapter 3) provides new micro-level evidence for the positive relationship between financial development and economic growth based on a large sample of cross-country firm-level data. By examining an important micro channel through which financial development reduces the costs of external finance to firms, I find that firms that are more externally dependent grow faster in countries with more developed financial systems. The third essay (chapter 4) investigates the impact of external debt on long-term investment and its interaction with domestic financial intermediation in emerging markets. Extending the Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model to a small open economy with the role of financial intermediation, I find that the overall effect of a high level of external debt on investment depends heavily on the degree of domestic financial intermediation. Using a large sample of panel data on 76 developing countries over the last three decades, the empirical results indicate that when a country's domestic banking sector develops to a certain degree, the high level of external debt facilitates investment.
Book Synopsis Three Essays in Monetary Theory by : Ludwig Van den Hauwe
Download or read book Three Essays in Monetary Theory written by Ludwig Van den Hauwe and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2009 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent events in international financial markets have revived the scientific interest in conceivable institutional alternatives to prevailing monetary arrangements. In the essays reprinted in this book, the author critically examines some of the more influential arguments which have been made in favour of decentralization in banking.
Book Synopsis Three Essays on Monetary Policy by : Kyuil Chung
Download or read book Three Essays on Monetary Policy written by Kyuil Chung and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Three Essays in Monetary Policy by : Sun Geun Kim
Download or read book Three Essays in Monetary Policy written by Sun Geun Kim and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Three Essays on Financial Markets and Monetary Policy by : Conglin Xu
Download or read book Three Essays on Financial Markets and Monetary Policy written by Conglin Xu and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Three Essays on Monetary Economics by : Shiu-Sheng Chen
Download or read book Three Essays on Monetary Economics written by Shiu-Sheng Chen and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 174 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Three Essays on External Debt, Fiscal and Monetary Policy Issues by : Andrea Fracasso
Download or read book Three Essays on External Debt, Fiscal and Monetary Policy Issues written by Andrea Fracasso and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The three essay are concerned with the uncertainty and risks that pervade the economy, influence investors and affect policymakers. The first essay shows that monetary policymakers consider events and contingencies to make decisions, and concludes that short-lived regime switches corrupt the descriptive power of linear Taylor-type rules, although these describe well the contours of the Fed's behaviour. The second essay focuses on the role of global and domestic factors for macroeconomic fluctuations in Brazil. The estimates of a VAR model reveal that global risk aversion is an important determinant of the volatility of Brazilian series and affects the monetary policy transmission channel. The third essay builds on the idea that, contrary to the predictions of IRBC models, the degree of international consumption smoothing is low. After a review of the literature addressing the puzzle, it investigates the relationship between external debt and consumption smoothing in a sample of developing countries.
Book Synopsis Essays on Model Uncertainty in Macroeconomics by : Mingjun Zhao
Download or read book Essays on Model Uncertainty in Macroeconomics written by Mingjun Zhao and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: My dissertation grapples with the issues of model uncertainty in macroeconomics, and analyzes its consequences for monetary policy. It consists of three essays. In the first essay (Chapter 1), "Monetary Policy under Misspecified Expectations", I examine policy choices for the central bank that faces uncertainty about the process of expectation formation by economic agents. The economy contains both "rule-of-thumb" agents who base their expectations on recent observations and agents who have rational expectations. The central bank is uncertain about the fraction of the rule-of-thumb agents. This uncertainty concern enables me to partially rationalize the over cautious policy stance of the Fed: empirically observed policy in the past two decades involves much weaker responses than optimal policies derived from various micro-founded models. It is well understood that when the economy is more forward-looking, the central bank displays more aggressive responses to inflation and output. But the uncertainty-averse central bank evaluates policies by the performance in the worst case. In my economy this has a high fraction of agents that are backward-looking. The best policy the central bank chooses thus involves moderate responses. That is to say, this minimax policy moves closer toward actual less responsive policy. In the second essay (Chapter 2), "Phillips Curve Uncertainty and Monetary Policy", I investigate the effect of model uncertainty on policy choices employing a more general approach, which nests the minimax and Bayesian approaches as limiting cases. The central bank is uncertain about whether the economy has a sticky price Phillips curve or a sticky information Phillips curve. I argue that how the central bank chooses a policy depends both on its perception of uncertainty environment and on its attitude towards uncertainty. I find that as the central bank either becomes more uncertainty-averse or considers sticky information more plausible, the response to inflation decreases and to output increases. The third essay (Chapter 3) is entitled "Optimal Simple Rules in RE Models with Risk Sensitive Preferences". This paper provides a useful method to solve optimal simple rules under risk sensitive preference in macro models with forward looking behavior. An application to a new Keynesian model with lagged dynamics is offered and risk sensitive preference is found to amplify policy responses.
Book Synopsis Three Essays on Business Cycle and Monetary Policy by : Yongjae Choi
Download or read book Three Essays on Business Cycle and Monetary Policy written by Yongjae Choi and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Three Essays on Monetary and Fiscal Policy by : Ruoyun Mao
Download or read book Three Essays on Monetary and Fiscal Policy written by Ruoyun Mao and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 185 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The dissertation consists of three essays studying the effects of monetary and fiscal policy. The first chapter, ''Policy Uncertainty and Government Spending Effects'' (joint with Shu-Chun Yang), studies government spending multipliers in a low nominal interest rate environment. Using a fully nonlinear New Keynesian model, this chapter shows government spending multipliers can decrease when 1) the initial debt-to-GDP ratio is higher, 2) the tax rate is higher, 3) debt maturity is longer, and 4) monetary policy is more responsive to inflation. When monetary and fiscal policy regimes can switch, policy uncertainty also reduces spending multipliers. If higher inflation induces a rising probability of switching to a regime where monetary policy actively controls inflation and fiscal policy raises future taxes to stabilize government debt, the multipliers can fall much below unity.The second chapter is a joint work with Zhao Han and Xiaohan Ma and studies how dispersed information impacts inflation, inflation expectations, and the Phillips curve by analytically solving a price-setting problem with nominal rigidity and informational frictions. The analytical representations enable us to recover the underlying parameters with data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) and quantify the effects of dispersed information. The estimation results show dispersed information plays an important role in generating persistent inflation forecast errors and non-zero nowcast errors, as observed in the SPF data, but the effects of higher-order expectations on the Phillips curve are quantitatively small.The last chapter derives the optimal monetary policy when firms only have limited capacity to process information. The result shows marginal cost of attention is the key to determining the trade-off between the central bank's dual mandates. When the marginal cost is low, monetary policy aiming at stabilizing the output gap attracts attention from the private sector and generates inefficient price dispersion; Increasing the marginal cost of attention can eliminate the trade-off. A comparison between a rule-based policy and a discretionary policy confirms welfare gain from commitment. Firms pay extra attention to the policy signal when it is discretionary, which generates more price dispersion and harms welfare.
Book Synopsis Three Essays on Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty by :
Download or read book Three Essays on Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty written by and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 190 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the first chapter, I propose a new design of Early Warning Systems to detect early warning signals of an impending financial crisis. The problem of EWS is formulated from a policy maker's perspective. Hence the probability threshold is obtained by minimizing the policy maker's welfare loss. This paper employs the Bayesian Quickest Change Detection as the methodology to detect the early warning signals. We show that the BQCD method outperforms the Logit model used in traditional EWS models based on results of simulation exercise and the out-of-sample prediction of the 1997 Asian financial crises. In the second chapter, I investigated the timing of U.S. monetary policy response to the 2007 financial crisis. The LIBOR-OIS spread jumped significantly on Aug 9, 2007, indicating an unusual increase in distress of the financial sector, but it was not until Aug 17, 2007, that the Federal Reserve responded with a 50 basis points of reduction of the primary credit rate after an unscheduled meeting. I further assumed that the policy maker was uncertain about the intensity of the financial crisis, and that monetary policy responded to more severe financial crisis more intensively. In order to increase the accuracy of choosing the right policy regime, waiting for more information may be desirable. I found that for certain specifications of the intensity of the financial crisis, the optimal timing of the Federal Reserve's policy response should be Aug 15, 2007. I concluded that uncertainty about the intensity of the financial crisis played an important role in the timing decision of the policy maker. In the third chapter, I investigated the issue of international monetary policy coordination under uncertainty. The consensus is that international monetary policy coordination is welfare improving, but some argue that the improvement is not significant quantitatively. This paper studied the role of model uncertainty in international monetary policy coordination, and found that considering model uncertainty can enhance welfare gain of coordination.
Book Synopsis Three Essays on Monetary Policy by : Chee-Hong Law
Download or read book Three Essays on Monetary Policy written by Chee-Hong Law and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 824 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The third essay (Chapter 4) investigates the impact of world outputs and shocks, world price shocks, world interest rate shocks and global liquidity shocks on six domestic economic variables in New Zealand. Tests are conducted on quarterly data from 1991 Q1 to 2013 Q1, and apply SVAR to simulate IRFs. The estimations are conducted in two stages. The first stage generates the structural foreign shock using a SVAR model that consists of foreign variables; the second stage involves the SVARs that include domestic variables and the structural foreign shocks that were generated from the first stage. The findings show that some domestic variables react to the remaining foreign shocks, apart from world interest rate shocks. Among these domestic variables, the real exchange rate is found to be relatively sensitive to foreign shocks. The insignificant impact of the world interest rate also implies that the hypothesis of 'beggar-thy-neighbour' is not supported in this chapter. Furthermore, global liquidity has, in general, positively influenced the real exchange rate. Finally, the IRFs from the robustness check indicate that the periods and sizes of statistically significant reactions are similar. However, the statistically significant impacts of these foreign shocks are different in some SVAR models.
Book Synopsis Essays in Monetary and International Economics by : Tokhir Mirzoev
Download or read book Essays in Monetary and International Economics written by Tokhir Mirzoev and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: This dissertation is comprised of three essays in monetary and international macroeconomics. The first essay, titled "A Dynamic Model of Exogenous Exchange Rate Pass-Through", examines a two-country open economy model with sticky prices where exporters' choice of invoicing currency is endogenous. Besides generating incomplete pass-through, the model yields three main results. First, firms' invoicing strategy is generally time-varying. Second, average pass-through is asymmetric in times of persistent depreciation and appreciation. Finally, cross-country differences in money supply variability produce an origin-based asymmetry: different average pass-through rates into import and export prices. The second essay, titled "Limited Commitment, Inaction and Optimal Monetary Policy", examines the optimal frequency of monetary policy meetings when their schedule is pre-announced. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, we show that in the standard New Keynesian framework infrequent but periodic revision of monetary policy may be desirable even when there are no explicit costs of policy adjustment. Second, we solve for the optimal frequency of policy adjustment and characterize its determinants. When applied to the U.S. economy, our analysis suggests that the Federal Open Market Committee should revise the federal funds target rate no more than twice a year. Finally, the third essay, titled "Does the Federal Reserve Do What It Says It Expects to Do?", studies the behavior of the Federal Open Market Committee in setting the federal funds target rate and making a bias announcement. The current bias concerning the next interest rate decision should be the optimal forecast based on the committee's interest rate policy rule. Therefore, the interest rate implied by the estimated policy should be consistent not only with the observed rate, but also with the observed bias announcement. We jointly estimate interest rate and bias announcement decision rules and find strong consistency between the two decisions in their response to inflation. However, the response to measures of economic activity is found inconsistent.
Book Synopsis The Theory of Money and Financial Institutions by : Martin Shubik
Download or read book The Theory of Money and Financial Institutions written by Martin Shubik and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1999 with total page 472 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This first volume in a three-volume exposition of Shubik's vision of "mathematical institutional economics" explores a one-period approach to economic exchange with money, debt, and bankruptcy. This is the first volume in a three-volume exposition of Martin Shubik's vision of "mathematical institutional economics"--a term he coined in 1959 to describe the theoretical underpinnings needed for the construction of an economic dynamics. The goal is to develop a process-oriented theory of money and financial institutions that reconciles micro- and macroeconomics, using as a prime tool the theory of games in strategic and extensive form. The approach involves a search for minimal financial institutions that appear as a logical, technological, and institutional necessity, as part of the "rules of the game." Money and financial institutions are assumed to be the basic elements of the network that transmits the sociopolitical imperatives to the economy. Volume 1 deals with a one-period approach to economic exchange with money, debt, and bankruptcy. Volume 2 explores the new economic features that arise when we consider multi-period finite and infinite horizon economies. Volume 3 will consider the specific role of financial institutions and government, and formulate the economic financial control problem linking micro- and macroeconomics.
Book Synopsis Three Essays on Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-through, Monetary Policy and Province Border Effects by : Wei Chen
Download or read book Three Essays on Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-through, Monetary Policy and Province Border Effects written by Wei Chen and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Three Essays on Monetary Business Cycle by : Won-Kyu Kim
Download or read book Three Essays on Monetary Business Cycle written by Won-Kyu Kim and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
