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Three Essays On Economic Forecasting And Theory Examination
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Book Synopsis Three Essays on Economic Forecasting and Theory Examination by : Dong Yan
Download or read book Three Essays on Economic Forecasting and Theory Examination written by Dong Yan and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the first chapter, Monte Carlo simulation and bootstrap methods are used to compare the actual and nominal coverage probabilities of prediction intervals constructed using the Prais-Winsten modified weighted symmetric least squares (PW-MWSLS) estimation method. The evidence suggests that the PW-MWSLS estimator, the best point predictor, for the linear trend model with first-order autoregressive errors also leads to prediction intervals with the most accurate coverage rates for the linear trend model with first-order autoregressive errors. The second chapter employs an innovative methodology to construct inflation expectations by incorporating information in the commodity futures market. The empirical results from the vector dynamic system show that the constructed expected rate of inflation series provides the best in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts over the sample period under investigation. Chapter three applies the constructed time series of inflation expectations in the second chapter to examine two broadly debated topics in the field of economics, the Fisher effect and the Phillips curve. The findings provide support for the existence of the short-run Fisher effect; and for the examination of the two main alternative specifications of the Phillips curve, the New Keynesian Phillips curve and the expectations-augmented Phillips curve, the empirical evidence is in favor of the former.
Book Synopsis An Essay on the Theory of Economic Prediction by : Lawrence Robert Klein
Download or read book An Essay on the Theory of Economic Prediction written by Lawrence Robert Klein and published by Chicago : Markham Publishing Company. This book was released on 1970 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Three Essays on Macroeconomics and Laboratory Experiments by : Justin D. LeBlanc
Download or read book Three Essays on Macroeconomics and Laboratory Experiments written by Justin D. LeBlanc and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 326 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation examines two prominent macroeconomic models and their behavioral underpinnings in a laboratory setting. The first is that of state-dependent pricing models (i.e., "menu cost" models). Comparisons were made between laboratory results and a computer- simulated optimal behavior, and results indicate that subjects update prices too frequently resulting in statistically suboptimal profits due to subjects' inability to clearly ascertain the optimal threshold at which to update prices. Second, the consumption predictions made under rational inattention theory were examined via a laboratory experiment. Results indicate that subjects' behavior aligns well with predictions in that they consume stochastically, yet adjust their consumption and attention according to variations in the economic environment. Subjects also respond more quickly and in higher magnitude to negative income shocks compared to positive. Finally, the experiments provided two use cases that enabled the evaluation of how coding environments and demands on versatility of laboratory of experiments have evolved. Performance comparisons were made between two novel coding environments and the most commonly used experimental platform, z-Tree. Results indicate that while environments other than z-Tree oer substantially more flexibility and performance enhancements, these benefits can come at the cost of nontrivial software engineering resources.
Book Synopsis Three Essays in Development Economics by : David Russell Hansen
Download or read book Three Essays in Development Economics written by David Russell Hansen and published by Stanford University. This book was released on 2011 with total page 147 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation is composed of three chapters. All three deal with topics in development economics. The first chapter examines the effects on village institutions of introducing formal financial institution options into the village. The second addresses the effects of government policy on educational investment and crime. The third tests the explanatory power of various explanations of the gender gap in math test scores. The first chapter examines the effects of a transition from a ``traditional'' economy based on an uncertain source of income, with risk fully insured away by one's neighbors in a social network through costly network ties, to a ``modern'' economy in which some agents have access to partial insurance at a lower cost. A theoretical model is used to show that village social networks can break down as some members of the village no longer need the insurance the social network provides, producing a reduction in welfare (if the costs of reducing moral hazard are not too high) for at least some individuals and possibly the village as a whole. This loss of welfare can occur even when networks provide other benefits to those belonging to them and is likely to be heterogeneous, depending on the opportunities and networks available to individuals. This paper tests these predictions using Indonesian data to examine the effect of a change in the banking institutions available to a community on the strength of social networks (measured by community participation) and welfare (measured by household expenditure and by child health). The analysis finds that changing financial institution availability in general does not influence community participation or welfare, but that financial institutions that primarily serve certain groups do relatively reduce the welfare of households not in those groups, which is consistent with the hypotheses generated by the model. Crime is an important feature of economic life in many countries, especially in the developing world. Crime distorts many economic decisions because it acts like an unpredictable tax on earnings. In particular, the threat of crime may influence people's willingness to invest in schooling or physical capital. The second chapter explores the questions "What influence do crime rates and levels of investment have on one another?" and "How do government policies affect the relationship between investment and crime?" by creating a simple structural model of crime and educational investment and attempting to fit this model to Mexican data. A method of simulated moments procedure is used to estimate parameters of the model and the estimated parameters are then used to carry out policy simulations. The simulations show that increasing spending on police or increasing the severity of punishment reduces crime but has little effect on educational investment. Increased educational subsidies increase educational investment but reduce crime only slightly. Thus, one type of policy is insufficient to accomplish the goals of both reducing crime and increasing education. The third chapter is joint work with Prashant Bharadwaj, Giacomo De Giorgi, and Christopher Neilson. Boys tend to have better performances than girls in mathematical testing; in particular, there are significantly more boys than girls among high achievers and the score distribution appears to have a longer right tail for boys. We confirm such results on several low- and middle-income countries. In particular we find that the gender gap is already present by age 10 and substantially increases by age 14 and 15. We propose and try to test a series of explanations for such a gap: (i) parental investment, (ii) ability, (iii) school resources, (iv) individual investment and effort (not tested directly), (v) competitive environment, and (vi) cultural norms. We conclude that none of our proposed explanations can account for a substantial portion of the gap.
Book Synopsis The Theory of Money and Financial Institutions by : Martin Shubik
Download or read book The Theory of Money and Financial Institutions written by Martin Shubik and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1999 with total page 472 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This first volume in a three-volume exposition of Shubik's vision of "mathematical institutional economics" explores a one-period approach to economic exchange with money, debt, and bankruptcy. This is the first volume in a three-volume exposition of Martin Shubik's vision of "mathematical institutional economics"--a term he coined in 1959 to describe the theoretical underpinnings needed for the construction of an economic dynamics. The goal is to develop a process-oriented theory of money and financial institutions that reconciles micro- and macroeconomics, using as a prime tool the theory of games in strategic and extensive form. The approach involves a search for minimal financial institutions that appear as a logical, technological, and institutional necessity, as part of the "rules of the game." Money and financial institutions are assumed to be the basic elements of the network that transmits the sociopolitical imperatives to the economy. Volume 1 deals with a one-period approach to economic exchange with money, debt, and bankruptcy. Volume 2 explores the new economic features that arise when we consider multi-period finite and infinite horizon economies. Volume 3 will consider the specific role of financial institutions and government, and formulate the economic financial control problem linking micro- and macroeconomics.
Book Synopsis Dissertation Abstracts International by :
Download or read book Dissertation Abstracts International written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 640 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Three Essays in Labor Economics by : Cristóbal Huneeus
Download or read book Three Essays in Labor Economics written by Cristóbal Huneeus and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Handbook of Economic Forecasting by : Graham Elliott
Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-08-23 with total page 667 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
Book Synopsis Amartya Sen by : Christopher W. Morris
Download or read book Amartya Sen written by Christopher W. Morris and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2010 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A volume of essays on aspects of Amartya Sen's hugely influential and multi-disciplinary work.
Book Synopsis Three Essays Examining the Health Economics of Women and Their Children by : Bradley Gray
Download or read book Three Essays Examining the Health Economics of Women and Their Children written by Bradley Gray and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 514 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Commencement by : Iowa State University
Download or read book Commencement written by Iowa State University and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 366 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Financial Analysis, Planning And Forecasting: Theory And Application (Third Edition) by : Cheng Few Lee
Download or read book Financial Analysis, Planning And Forecasting: Theory And Application (Third Edition) written by Cheng Few Lee and published by World Scientific Publishing Company. This book was released on 2016-08-10 with total page 1390 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is an introduction-level text that reviews, discusses, and integrates both theoretical and practical corporate analysis and planning. The field can be divided into five parts: (1) Information and Methodology for Financial Analysis; (2) Alternative Finance Theories and Cost of Capital; (3) Capital Budgeting and Leasing Decisions; (4) Corporate Policies and their Interrelationships; (5) Financial Planning and Forecasting.The theories used and discussed in this book can be grouped into the following classical theoretical areas of corporate finance: (1) Pre-M&M Theory, (2) M&M Theory, (3) CAPM, and (4) Option Pricing Theory (OPT). The interrelationships among these theories are carefully analyzed. Real world examples are used to enrich the learning experience; and alternative planning and forecasting models are used to show how the interdisciplinary approach can be used to make meaningful financial-management decisions.In this third edition, we have extensively updated and expanded the topics of financial analysis, planning and forecasting. New chapters were added, and some chapters combined to present a holistic view of the subject and much of the data revised and updated.
Book Synopsis Three Essays on Monetary Control by : Michael G. Hadjimichalakis
Download or read book Three Essays on Monetary Control written by Michael G. Hadjimichalakis and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Three Essays on Public Finance and Economics of Education by : Estelle P. Dauchy
Download or read book Three Essays on Public Finance and Economics of Education written by Estelle P. Dauchy and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 342 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Take-Overs written by Ajit Singh and published by CUP Archive. This book was released on 1971 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Future of Law and Economics by : Guido Calabresi
Download or read book The Future of Law and Economics written by Guido Calabresi and published by Yale University Press. This book was released on 2016-01-28 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a concise, compelling argument, one of the founders and most influential advocates of the law and economics movement divides the subject into two separate areas, which he identifies with Jeremy Bentham and John Stuart Mill. The first, Benthamite, strain, “economic analysis of law,” examines the legal system in the light of economic theory and shows how economics might render law more effective. The second strain, law and economics, gives equal status to law, and explores how the more realistic, less theoretical discipline of law can lead to improvements in economic theory. It is the latter approach that Judge Calabresi advocates, in a series of eloquent, thoughtful essays that will appeal to students and scholars alike.
Book Synopsis Three Essays in Public Economics by : Matthew Kim
Download or read book Three Essays in Public Economics written by Matthew Kim and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 138 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
