Theory Of Suboptimal Decisions

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Theory of Suboptimal Decisions

Author : A.A. Pervozvanskii
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9400928335
Total Pages : 399 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis Theory of Suboptimal Decisions by : A.A. Pervozvanskii

Download or read book Theory of Suboptimal Decisions written by A.A. Pervozvanskii and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 399 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Approach your problems from the right end It isn't that they can't see the solution. It is and begin with the answers. Then one day, that they can't see the problem. perhaps you will find the final question. G. K. Chesterton. The Scandal of Father 'The Hermit Clad in Crane Feathers' in R. Brown 'The point of a Pin'. van Gulik's The Chinese Maze Murders. Growing specialization and diversification have brought a host of monographs and textbooks on increasingly specialized topics. However, the "tree" of knowledge of mathematics and related fields does not grow only by putting forth new branches. It also happens, quite often in fact, that branches which were. thought to be completely disparate are suddenly seen to be related. Further, the kind and level of sophistication of mathematics applied in various Isciences has changed drastically in recent years: measure theory is used (non trivially) in regional and theoretical economics; algebraic geom. eJry interacts with I physics; the Minkowsky lemma, coding theory and the structure of water meet one another in packing and covering theory; quantum fields, crystal defects and rpathematical programminglprofit from homotopy theory; Lie algebras are relevant to filtering; and prediction and electrical engineering can use Stein spaces. And in addition to this there are such new emerging subdisciplines as "experimental mathematics", "CFD", "completely integrable systems", "chaos, synergetics and large-scale order", which are almost impossible to fit into the existing classification schemes. They draw upon widely different sections of mathematics.

The Paradox of Choice

Author : Barry Schwartz
Publisher : Harper Collins
ISBN 13 : 0061748994
Total Pages : 308 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (617 download)

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Book Synopsis The Paradox of Choice by : Barry Schwartz

Download or read book The Paradox of Choice written by Barry Schwartz and published by Harper Collins. This book was released on 2009-10-13 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Whether we're buying a pair of jeans, ordering a cup of coffee, selecting a long-distance carrier, applying to college, choosing a doctor, or setting up a 401(k), everyday decisions—both big and small—have become increasingly complex due to the overwhelming abundance of choice with which we are presented. As Americans, we assume that more choice means better options and greater satisfaction. But beware of excessive choice: choice overload can make you question the decisions you make before you even make them, it can set you up for unrealistically high expectations, and it can make you blame yourself for any and all failures. In the long run, this can lead to decision-making paralysis, anxiety, and perpetual stress. And, in a culture that tells us that there is no excuse for falling short of perfection when your options are limitless, too much choice can lead to clinical depression. In The Paradox of Choice, Barry Schwartz explains at what point choice—the hallmark of individual freedom and self-determination that we so cherish—becomes detrimental to our psychological and emotional well-being. In accessible, engaging, and anecdotal prose, Schwartz shows how the dramatic explosion in choice—from the mundane to the profound challenges of balancing career, family, and individual needs—has paradoxically become a problem instead of a solution. Schwartz also shows how our obsession with choice encourages us to seek that which makes us feel worse. By synthesizing current research in the social sciences, Schwartz makes the counter intuitive case that eliminating choices can greatly reduce the stress, anxiety, and busyness of our lives. He offers eleven practical steps on how to limit choices to a manageable number, have the discipline to focus on those that are important and ignore the rest, and ultimately derive greater satisfaction from the choices you have to make.

Opportunities in Neuroscience for Future Army Applications

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309127408
Total Pages : 136 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Opportunities in Neuroscience for Future Army Applications by : National Research Council

Download or read book Opportunities in Neuroscience for Future Army Applications written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2009-07-16 with total page 136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Advances and major investments in the field of neuroscience can enhance traditional behavioral science approaches to training, learning, and other applications of value to the Army. Neural-behavioral indicators offer new ways to evaluate how well an individual trainee has assimilated mission critical knowledge and skills, and can also be used to provide feedback on the readiness of soldiers for combat. Current methods for matching individual capabilities with the requirements for performing high-value Army assignments do not include neuropsychological, psychophysiological, neurochemical or neurogenetic components; simple neuropsychological testing could greatly improve training success rates for these assignments. Opportunities in Neuroscience for Future Army Applications makes 17 recommendations that focus on utilizing current scientific research and development initiatives to improve performance and efficiency, collaborating with pharmaceutical companies to employ neuropharmaceuticals for general sustainment or enhancement of soldier performance, and improving cognitive and behavioral performance using interdisciplinary approaches and technological investments. An essential guide for the Army, this book will also be of interest to other branches of military, national security and intelligence agencies, academic and commercial researchers, pharmaceutical companies, and others interested in applying the rapid advances in neuroscience to the performance of individual and group tasks.

Neural Mechanisms of Suboptimal Decisions

Author : Ka Hung Bolton Chau
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (16 download)

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Book Synopsis Neural Mechanisms of Suboptimal Decisions by : Ka Hung Bolton Chau

Download or read book Neural Mechanisms of Suboptimal Decisions written by Ka Hung Bolton Chau and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Elements for a Theory of Decision in Uncertainty

Author : Jaime Gil-Aluja
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 147573011X
Total Pages : 344 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (757 download)

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Book Synopsis Elements for a Theory of Decision in Uncertainty by : Jaime Gil-Aluja

Download or read book Elements for a Theory of Decision in Uncertainty written by Jaime Gil-Aluja and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decisions in uncertainty Scientific reaction to change During latter decades, the basic elements that have traditionally made up the society in wh ich economic activity develops, have been submitted to the effect of multiple aggressions as a consequence of the outcome of events motivated by the nature itself of the human being, always seeking a level of happiness that is never reached. In a very brief manner we are accustomed to mention these by using words such as revolution, profound changes, convulsions . . . . , the results of which are manifest through non-linear reactions that lead to a future charged with uncertainty. To get to know, explain and treat this new world constitutes one of the many objectives of those who desire a society in the service of man, and for those who aspire to the fact of the concept of mutuality transcending the use less limits of the printed word. But for this it will be necessary to overcome a whole realm of obstacles placed in the way by those comfortably embedded in old principles, decrepit ideas and are not willing to open the windows of their mind to receive the fresh air of a new era.

Time Inconsistency and Financial Decision Making: Theory and Evidence

Author : Hendrik-Sebastian Schmitz
Publisher : GRIN Verlag
ISBN 13 : 3656383782
Total Pages : 56 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (563 download)

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Book Synopsis Time Inconsistency and Financial Decision Making: Theory and Evidence by : Hendrik-Sebastian Schmitz

Download or read book Time Inconsistency and Financial Decision Making: Theory and Evidence written by Hendrik-Sebastian Schmitz and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2013-03-06 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Master's Thesis from the year 2012 in the subject Economics - Other, grade: 1,3, University of Münster (Institut für Siedlungs- und Wohnungswesen), language: English, abstract: Behavioral economics is a relatively young subdiscipline of economics that has garnered a noticeable amount of attention especially over the last two decades. It seeks to utilize findings from other scientific fields, especially psychology, in order to enhance the plausibility of neo-classical (mainstream) economic models without replacing or abandoning them . The inclusion of psychology into economic thinking is nothing new, however. Instead, it can be traced back to the period of the classical economists of the 18th century. While lacking the rigorous formal approach of today ́s behavioral economists, the conception of the human nature and human decision making was surprisingly sophisticated at the time. For instance, time-inconsistent preferences, which are an important aspect of behavioral economics, have already been examined by David Hume and Adam Smith . Other phenomena, including loss aversion and overconfidence, have also been discussed by classical economists. This thesis has the following structure: Chapter 2 explains a general, quite powerful model of dynamically inconsistent preferences. Special emphasis is placed on real-life examples as well as welfare analysis, including political implications. As we move along, we will constantly compare our findings to the results we would obtain from the neoclassical paradigm. The next two chapters take a closer look at time inconsistencies in the realm of financial decision making. We will examine the behavior of individuals regarding credit card debt in chapter 3, which will require the introduction of another model that is more specifically tailored towards the credit card market. However, the foundations laid out in chapter 2 will be helpful in understanding this second model of inconsistency. Chapter 3 will also discuss recent legislation in credit card markets in the US. In chapter 4, we discuss retirement savings decisions, specifically in the context of the 401(k) retirement plan . After having introduced two models already that explain how people and companies act in certain situations, in the chapter we will discuss several behavioral phenomena that help us explain the motivation behind the decisions of individuals. We will assess the costs and benefits of government interference into the market and the possible measures that might improve the market outcome. Chapter 5 concludes and discusses interesting questions that might be examined further in the future.

Decision Theory With Imperfect Information

Author : Aliev Rafig Aziz
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 9814611050
Total Pages : 468 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (146 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Theory With Imperfect Information by : Aliev Rafig Aziz

Download or read book Decision Theory With Imperfect Information written by Aliev Rafig Aziz and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2014-08-08 with total page 468 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Every day decision making in complex human-centric systems are characterized by imperfect decision-relevant information. The principal problems with the existing decision theories are that they do not have capability to deal with situations in which probabilities and events are imprecise. In this book, we describe a new theory of decision making with imperfect information. The aim is to shift the foundation of decision analysis and economic behavior from the realm bivalent logic to the realm fuzzy logic and Z-restriction, from external modeling of behavioral decisions to the framework of combined states.This book will be helpful for professionals, academics, managers and graduate students in fuzzy logic, decision sciences, artificial intelligence, mathematical economics, and computational economics.

Health Economics from Theory to Practice

Author : Simon Eckermann
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319506137
Total Pages : 339 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (195 download)

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Book Synopsis Health Economics from Theory to Practice by : Simon Eckermann

Download or read book Health Economics from Theory to Practice written by Simon Eckermann and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-03-20 with total page 339 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a robust set of health economic principles and methods to inform societal decisions in relation to research, reimbursement and regulation (pricing and monitoring of performance in practice). We provide a theoretical and practical framework that navigates to avoid common biases and suboptimal outcomes observed in recent and current practice of health economic analysis, as opposed to claiming to be comprehensive in covering all methods. Our aim is to facilitate efficient health system decision making processes in research, reimbursement and regulation, which promote constrained optimisation of community outcomes from a societal perspective given resource constraints, available technology and processes of technology assessment. Importantly, this includes identifying an efficient process to maximize the potential that arises from research and pricing in relation to existing technology under uncertainty, given current evidence and associated opportunity costs of investment. Principles and methods are identified and illustrated across health promotion, prevention and palliative care settings as well as treatment settings. Health policy implications are also highlighted.

The Science of Intelligent Decision Making

Author : Peter Hollins
Publisher : PKCS Media
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 148 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (661 download)

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Book Synopsis The Science of Intelligent Decision Making by : Peter Hollins

Download or read book The Science of Intelligent Decision Making written by Peter Hollins and published by PKCS Media. This book was released on 2019-08-16 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Overwhelmed and paralyzed by your choices? Learn how to get it right the first time - improve your analysis, judgment, and intuition. Unfortunately, you can’t just rely on your gut instinct or “hunch” when you make decisions. There’s a science to improving your critical thinking, weighing pros and cons, and avoiding the traps that take you down the wrong path. Make smart decisions by catching your brain's built-in flaws. The Science of Intelligent Decision Making will teach you to seize control of your life and make sure your decisions aren’t making you. This book cites years of research and scientific studies about what constitutes a great decision and the factors that will inevitably lead you there. It is an in-depth look at human nature and psychology and why we make decisions in the way we do - for better or for worse. This book is packed with theory, but it is all practical and actionable. Use these mental models and pieces of analysis on your decisions TODAY. Think more quickly and more thoroughly – at the same time. Peter Hollins has studied psychology and the human condition for over a dozen years. This book contains tactics pulled from his personal experience, as well as some of the most famous studies in decision theory and social psychology to help you make snap decisions. Beat analysis paralysis and eliminate indecision. •Learn your subconscious motivations, needs, and desires that hijack your brain. •Discover the surprising causes and cures for decision fatigue. •Over 10 of the most dangerous cognitive biases and decision traps. •How to make your pros and cons lists incredibly useful and illuminating. Make smart choices and never have “buyer’s remorse” regrets again. •The 6 Hats Method of intelligent decisions and how you can inhabit different perspectives. •The WRAP method of planning for failure in decisions. •How to think outside the box and creatively solve problems.

A Behavioral Theory of the Firm

Author : Richard M. Cyert
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)

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Book Synopsis A Behavioral Theory of the Firm by : Richard M. Cyert

Download or read book A Behavioral Theory of the Firm written by Richard M. Cyert and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Provides a theory of decision making within business organizations. Contrary to the economic theory of the firm, which sees firms as profit-maximizing entities, the authors advocate a theory based on empirical observation of actual firm decision-making. Various features of firm decision-making are identified. First, firms are coalitions of participants whose individual goals may and often do conflict. How this conflict is resolved is determined by the firm's bargaining process. This process is constrained by past behavior and decisions. Second, the authors reject the notion that firms are one-dimensional profit-maximizers in favor of a view of firms as entities with many different objectives that will accept suboptimal outcomes if they are above a minimum level. Congruent with this, a firm's search activity occurs in response to a perceived problem and is limited in scope. The effect is that firm policies will change only incrementally. Also impeding radical policy change is the fact that firms react to uncertainty using standardized decision rules. Using this theory, two computer models of business decision-making are presented and compared with actual results. These models are shown to have especially good predictive power. (CAR).

Decision Theory and Choices: a Complexity Approach

Author : Marisa Faggini
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 8847017785
Total Pages : 252 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (47 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Theory and Choices: a Complexity Approach by : Marisa Faggini

Download or read book Decision Theory and Choices: a Complexity Approach written by Marisa Faggini and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-12-28 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In economics agents are assumed to choose on the basis of rational calculations aimed at the maximization of their pleasure or profit. Formally, agents are said to manifest transitive and consistent preferences in attempting to maximize their utility in the presence of several constraints. They operate according to the choice imperative: given a set of alternatives, choose the best. This imperative works well in a static and simplistic framework, but it may fail or vary when 'the best' is changing continuously. This approach has been questioned by a descriptive approach that springing from the complexity theory tries to give a scientific basis to the way in which individuals really choose, showing that those models of human nature is routinely falsified by experiments since people are neither selfish nor rational. Thus inductive rules of thumb are usually implemented in order to make decisions in the presence of incomplete and heterogeneous information sets.

An Introduction to Decision Theory

Author : Martin Peterson
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1107151597
Total Pages : 351 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (71 download)

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Book Synopsis An Introduction to Decision Theory by : Martin Peterson

Download or read book An Introduction to Decision Theory written by Martin Peterson and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-03-30 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive and accessible introduction to all aspects of decision theory, now with new and updated discussions and over 140 exercises.

Smart Economic Decision-Making in a Complex World

Author : Morris Altman
Publisher : Academic Press
ISBN 13 : 0128131780
Total Pages : 302 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (281 download)

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Book Synopsis Smart Economic Decision-Making in a Complex World by : Morris Altman

Download or read book Smart Economic Decision-Making in a Complex World written by Morris Altman and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2020-05-22 with total page 302 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Smart Economic Decision-Making in a Complex World is a fresh and reality-based perspective on decision-making with significant implications for analysis, self-understanding and policy. The book examines the conditions under which smart people generate outcomes that improve their place of work, their household and society. Within this work, the curious reader will find interesting open questions on many fascinating areas of current economic debate, including, the role of realistic assumptions robust model building, understanding how and when non-neoclassical behavior is best practice, why the assumption of smart decision-makers is best to understand and explain our economies and societies, and under what conditions individuals can make the best possible choices for themselves and society at large. Additional sections cover when and how efficiency is achieved, why inefficiencies can persist, when and how consumer welfare is maximized, and what benchmarks should be used to determine efficiency and rationality. Makes the case for ‘smart and rational’ decision-making as a context-dependent rational process that is framed by socio-cultural environment and conditioned by institutional capacities Explains how incorporation of the ‘smart’ decision-maker concept into economic thought improves our understanding of how, why and when people generate certain outcomes Explores how economic efficiency can be achieved, individual preferences realized, and social welfare maximized through the use of ‘smart and rational’ approaches

A Behavioral Theory of Elections

Author : Jonathan Bendor
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 069113507X
Total Pages : 268 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (911 download)

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Book Synopsis A Behavioral Theory of Elections by : Jonathan Bendor

Download or read book A Behavioral Theory of Elections written by Jonathan Bendor and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-02-06 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most theories of elections assume that voters and political actors are fully rational. This title provides a behavioral theory of elections based on the notion that all actors - politicians as well as voters - are only boundedly rational.

Decision and Game Theory for Security

Author : Jie Fu
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3031506707
Total Pages : 409 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (315 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision and Game Theory for Security by : Jie Fu

Download or read book Decision and Game Theory for Security written by Jie Fu and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2024-01-29 with total page 409 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Decision and Game Theory for Security, GameSec 2023, held in Avignon, France, during October 18–20, 2023. The 19 full papers and 4 short papers included in this book were carefully reviewed and selected from 33 submissions. They were organized in topical sections as follows: Mechanism design and imperfect information, Security Games, Learning in security games, Cyber deception, Economics of security, Information and privacy and Short articles.

Research Needs for Human Factors

Author : Richard W. Pew
Publisher : National Academies
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 176 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (475 download)

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Book Synopsis Research Needs for Human Factors by : Richard W. Pew

Download or read book Research Needs for Human Factors written by Richard W. Pew and published by National Academies. This book was released on 1983 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Applied Crisis Communication and Crisis Management

Author : W. Timothy Coombs
Publisher : SAGE Publications
ISBN 13 : 1483321606
Total Pages : 257 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (833 download)

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Book Synopsis Applied Crisis Communication and Crisis Management by : W. Timothy Coombs

Download or read book Applied Crisis Communication and Crisis Management written by W. Timothy Coombs and published by SAGE Publications. This book was released on 2013-06-11 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Designed to give students and public relations professionals the knowledge and skills they need to become successful crisis managers, Applied Crisis Communication and Crisis Management: Cases and Exercises by W. Timothy Coombs, includes a wide range of cases that explore crisis communication and management in action using a practical approach. In the first two chapters, the author introduces key theories and principles in crisis communication, which students apply by analyzing 17 cases drawn from recent headlines. Cases are explored from pre-crisis, mid-crisis, and post-crisis communication perspectives, and include a range of predominant crisis scenarios from product recalls to lawsuits to environmental disasters.