The Role Of Seasonality And Monetary Policy In Inflation Forecasting

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The Role of Seasonality and Monetary Policy in Inflation Forecasting

Author : Francis Y. Kumah
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 32 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis The Role of Seasonality and Monetary Policy in Inflation Forecasting by : Francis Y. Kumah

Download or read book The Role of Seasonality and Monetary Policy in Inflation Forecasting written by Francis Y. Kumah and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-07 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Adequate modeling of the seasonal structure of consumer prices is essential for inflation forecasting. This paper suggests a new econometric approach for jointly determining inflation forecasts and monetary policy stances, particularly where seasonal fluctuations of economic activity and prices are pronounced. In an application of the framework, the paper characterizes and investigates the stability of the seasonal pattern of consumer prices in the Kyrgyz Republic and estimates optimal money growth and implied exchange rate paths along with a jointly determined inflation forecast. The approach uses two broad specifications of an augmented error-correction model-with and without seasonal components. Findings from the paper confirm empirical superiority (in terms of information content and contributions to policymaking) of augmented error-correction models of inflation over single-equation, Box-Jenkins-type general autoregressive seasonal models. Simulations of the estimated errorcorrection models yield optimal monetary policy paths for achieving inflation targets and demonstrate the empirical significance of seasonality and monetary policy in inflation forecasting.

IMF Working Papers

Author : Francis Y. Kumah
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (842 download)

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Book Synopsis IMF Working Papers by : Francis Y. Kumah

Download or read book IMF Working Papers written by Francis Y. Kumah and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Inflation Expectations

Author : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135179778
Total Pages : 402 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (351 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation Expectations by : Peter J. N. Sinclair

Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Inflation in Tajikistan

Author : Svetlana Vtyurina
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451962177
Total Pages : 21 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (519 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation in Tajikistan by : Svetlana Vtyurina

Download or read book Inflation in Tajikistan written by Svetlana Vtyurina and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-01-01 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper attempts to explain short- and long-term dynamics of-and forecast-inflation in Tajikistan using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA). By analyzing different transmission channels through the VECM, we were able to evaluate their relative dominance, magnitude, and speed of transition to the equilibrium price level, with the view of identifying those policy tools that will enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy. We found that excess supply of broad money is inflationary in both the short and long term. The dynamic analysis also demonstrates that the exchange rate and international inflation have a strong impact on local prices. Available monetary instruments, such as the refinancing rate, have proven to be ineffective. Therefore, the Tajik monetary authority could greatly benefit from enhancing its monetary instruments toolkit, including by developing the interest rate channel, to improve its monetary policy execution and to achieve stable inflationary conditions.

Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498344062
Total Pages : 74 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries by : International Monetary Fund

Download or read book Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-10-23 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth. Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks. This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs.

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003

Author : Mark Gertler
Publisher : Mit Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262072533
Total Pages : 432 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (725 download)

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Book Synopsis NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003 by : Mark Gertler

Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003 written by Mark Gertler and published by Mit Press. This book was released on 2004 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The NBER Macroeconomics Annual presents pioneering work in macroeconomics by leading academic researchers to an audience of public policymakers and the academic community. Each commissioned paper is followed by comments and discussion. This year's edition provides a mix of cutting-edge research and policy analysis on such topics as productivity and information technology, the increase in wealth inequality, behavioral economics, and inflation.

Taking Stock of IMF Capacity Development on Monetary Policy Forecasting and Policy Analysis Systems

Author : John C. Odling-Smee
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 155775327X
Total Pages : 68 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (577 download)

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Book Synopsis Taking Stock of IMF Capacity Development on Monetary Policy Forecasting and Policy Analysis Systems by : John C. Odling-Smee

Download or read book Taking Stock of IMF Capacity Development on Monetary Policy Forecasting and Policy Analysis Systems written by John C. Odling-Smee and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1993 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper takes stock of forecasting and policy analysis system capacity development (FPAS CD), drawing extensively on the experience and lessons learned from developing FPAS capacity in the central banks. By sharing the insights gained during FPAS CD delivery and outlining the typical tools developed in the process, the paper aims to facilitate the understanding of FPAS CD within the IMF and to inform future CD on building macroeconomic frameworks. As such, the paper offers a qualitative assessment of the experience with FPAS CD delivery and the use of FPAS in the decision-making process in central banks.

Quarterly Projection Model for India

Author : Mr.Jaromir Benes
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475578709
Total Pages : 41 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Quarterly Projection Model for India by : Mr.Jaromir Benes

Download or read book Quarterly Projection Model for India written by Mr.Jaromir Benes and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-02-13 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper outlines the key features of the production version of the quarterly projection model (QPM), which is a forward-looking open-economy gap model, calibrated to represent the Indian case, for generating forecasts and risk assessment as well as conducting policy analysis. QPM incorporates several India-specific features like the importance of the agricultural sector and food prices in the inflation process; features of monetary policy transmission and implications of an endogenous credibility process for monetary policy formulation. The paper also describes key properties and historical decompositions of some important macroeconomic variables.

The Federal Reserve System Purposes and Functions

Author : Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780894991967
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (919 download)

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Book Synopsis The Federal Reserve System Purposes and Functions by : Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Download or read book The Federal Reserve System Purposes and Functions written by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Provides an in-depth overview of the Federal Reserve System, including information about monetary policy and the economy, the Federal Reserve in the international sphere, supervision and regulation, consumer and community affairs and services offered by Reserve Banks. Contains several appendixes, including a brief explanation of Federal Reserve regulations, a glossary of terms, and a list of additional publications.

Asset Prices and Monetary Policy

Author : John Y. Campbell
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226092127
Total Pages : 444 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (26 download)

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Book Synopsis Asset Prices and Monetary Policy by : John Y. Campbell

Download or read book Asset Prices and Monetary Policy written by John Y. Campbell and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-11-15 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic growth, low inflation, and financial stability are among the most important goals of policy makers, and central banks such as the Federal Reserve are key institutions for achieving these goals. In Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, leading scholars and practitioners probe the interaction of central banks, asset markets, and the general economy to forge a new understanding of the challenges facing policy makers as they manage an increasingly complex economic system. The contributors examine how central bankers determine their policy prescriptions with reference to the fluctuating housing market, the balance of debt and credit, changing beliefs of investors, the level of commodity prices, and other factors. At a time when the public has never been more involved in stocks, retirement funds, and real estate investment, this insightful book will be useful to all those concerned with the current state of the economy.

Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems

Author : Graeme L. Hammer
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9401593515
Total Pages : 492 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (15 download)

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Book Synopsis Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems by : Graeme L. Hammer

Download or read book Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems written by Graeme L. Hammer and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 492 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate variability has major impacts in many parts of the world, including Australia. Developments in understanding of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation Phenomenon have introduced some skill in seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasting. Can this skill be harnessed to advantage? Or do we just continue to observe these impacts? How does a decision-maker managing an agricultural or natural ecosystem modify decisions in response to a skillful, but imprecise, seasonal climate forecast? Using Australian experience as a basis, this book focuses on these questions in pursuing means to better manage climate risks. The state of the science in climate forecasting is reviewed before considering detailed examples of applications to: farm scale agricultural decisions (such as management of cropping and grazing systems); regional and national scale agricultural decisions (such as commodity trading and government policy); and natural systems (such as water resources, pests and diseases, and natural fauna). Many of the examples highlight the participatory and inter-disciplinary approach required among decision-makers, resource systems scientists/analysts, and climate scientists to bring about the effective applications. The experiences discussed provide valuable insights beyond the geographical and disciplinary focus of this book. The book is ideally suited to professionals and postgraduate students in ecology, agricultural climatology, environmental planning, and climate science.

Foreign Exchange Value of the Dollar

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 32 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (121 download)

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Book Synopsis Foreign Exchange Value of the Dollar by :

Download or read book Foreign Exchange Value of the Dollar written by and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Background Studies for the ECB's Evaluation of Its Monetary Policy Strategy

Author : Otmar Issing
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 344 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Background Studies for the ECB's Evaluation of Its Monetary Policy Strategy by : Otmar Issing

Download or read book Background Studies for the ECB's Evaluation of Its Monetary Policy Strategy written by Otmar Issing and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The ECB’s Monetary Analysis Revisited

Author : Helge Berger
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 66 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis The ECB’s Monetary Analysis Revisited by : Helge Berger

Download or read book The ECB’s Monetary Analysis Revisited written by Helge Berger and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-07 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monetary aggregates continue to play an important role in the ECB's policy strategy. This paper revisits the case for money, surveying the ongoing theoretical and empirical debate. The key conclusion is that an exclusive focus on non-monetary factors alone may leave the ECB with an incomplete picture of the economy. However, treating monetary factors as a separate matter is a second-best solution. Instead, a general-equilibrium inspired analytical framework that merges the economic and monetary "pillars" of the ECB's policy strategy appears the most promising way forward. The role played by monetary aggregates in such unified framework may be rather limited. However, an integrated framework would facilitate the presentation of policy decisions by providing a clearer narrative of the relative role of money in the interaction with other economic and financial sector variables, including asset prices, and their impact on consumer prices.

Inflation Forecast Targeting

Author : Lars E. O. Svensson
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 52 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation Forecast Targeting by : Lars E. O. Svensson

Download or read book Inflation Forecast Targeting written by Lars E. O. Svensson and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation targeting is shown to imply inflation forecast targeting: the central bank's inflation forecast becomes an explicit intermediate target. Inflation forecast targeting simplifies both implementation and monitoring of monetary policy. The weight on output stabilization determines how quickly the inflation forecast is adjusted towards the inflation target. Money growth or exchange rate targeting is generally inferior to inflation targeting and leads to higher inflation variability. Commitment to commitment to.

Money Targeting in a Modern Forecasting and Policy Analysis System

Author : Michal Andrle
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475516681
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Money Targeting in a Modern Forecasting and Policy Analysis System by : Michal Andrle

Download or read book Money Targeting in a Modern Forecasting and Policy Analysis System written by Michal Andrle and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-11-25 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We extend the framework in Andrle and others (2013) to incorporate an explicit role for money targets and target misses in the analysis of monetary policy in low-income countries (LICs), with an application to Kenya. We provide a general specification that can nest various types of money targeting (ranging from targets based on optimal money demand forecasts to those derived from simple money growth rules), interest-rate based frameworks, and intermediate cases. Our framework acknowledges that ex-post adherence to targets is in itself an objective of policy in LICs; here we provide a novel interpretation of target misses in terms of structural shocks (aggregate demand, policy, shocks to money demand, etc). In the case of Kenya, we find that: (i) the setting of money targets is consistent with money demand forecasting, (ii) targets have not played a systematic role in monetary policy, and (iii) target misses mainly reflect shocks to money demand. Simulations of the model under alternative policy specifications show that the stronger the ex-post target adherence, the greater the macroeconomic volatility. Our findings highlight the benefits of a model-based approach to monetary policy analysis in LICs, including in countries with money-targeting frameworks.

The Art of Forecasting Economic Growth

Author : Barrett Williams
Publisher : Barrett Williams
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 163 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis The Art of Forecasting Economic Growth by : Barrett Williams

Download or read book The Art of Forecasting Economic Growth written by Barrett Williams and published by Barrett Williams. This book was released on 2024-08-24 with total page 163 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Unlock the Power of Predicting Tomorrow with "The Art of Forecasting Economic Growth"! Are you ready to delve into the intricate world of economic forecasting? Discover the strategies, methods, and tools that shape the way experts predict future economic trends. "The Art of Forecasting Economic Growth" is your comprehensive guide to mastering economic predictions and leveraging them for smarter decision-making. Start your journey with an essential introduction to economic forecasting, exploring its significance, history, and the key players that have set the stage. As you progress, get acquainted with the fundamentals of data analysis in economics – uncover the types of data, collection methods, and basic concepts in economic modeling. Dive deeper into statistical techniques with chapters dedicated to descriptive and inferential statistics, and regression analysis. Grasp the intricacies of time series analysis and learn how to utilize economic indicators for accurate predictions. Build your full understanding of constructing and validating predictive economic models. Venture into advanced econometric techniques and discover the cutting-edge role of machine learning in economic forecasting. Understand the impact of big data, and the nuanced field of behavioral economics, to enhance your forecasting accuracy even further. Explore the significance of economic policy analysis, scenario planning, and stress testing. Enhance your insight on forecasting financial markets and evaluate the accuracy of your predictions with clear, actionable metrics. Learn the best practices for communicating your forecasts, ensuring clarity and impact. Ethics play a critical role in economic forecasting. This eBook provides a mindful exploration of ethical considerations, dilemmas, and solutions, backed by real-world case studies. Utilize forecasts to shape business strategies and align them with market realities. As you reach the final chapters, look ahead to the future of economic forecasting, exploring emerging trends, the transformative influence of AI, and the dynamics of a globalized economy. "The Art of Forecasting Economic Growth" is a must-have for anyone seeking to understand and apply economic forecasting techniques. Equip yourself with the knowledge to predict, plan, and prosper in an ever-changing economic landscape. Your journey into the future of economics starts here!