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Download or read book The Role of Market Speculation in Rising Oil and Gas Prices written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book THE ROLE OF MARKET SPECULATION IN RISING OIL AND GAS PRICES: A NEED TO PUT THE COP..., JUNE 27, 2006, 109-2 SENATE, S. PRT. 109-65, * written by and published by . This book was released on 2006* with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Samya Beidas-Strom
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498333486
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)
Download or read book Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation written by Samya Beidas-Strom and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-12 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect of mispricing in oil derivative markets can be observationally equivalent in a SVAR model of the world oil market à la Kilian and Murphy (2013), since both imply a positive co-movement of oil prices and inventories. Second, we impose additional restrictions on the set of admissible models embodying the assumption that the impact from noise trading shocks in oil derivative markets is temporary. Our additional restrictions effectively put a bound on the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short-run impact is smaller than that of flow demand shocks but possibly larger than that of flow supply shocks.
Author : Samuel P. Irvin
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 78 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (836 download)
Download or read book The Oil Bubble written by Samuel P. Irvin and published by . This book was released on 1868 with total page 78 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs. Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 264 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)
Download or read book Speculation in the Crude Oil Market written by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs. Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Michael Hall Yan
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 104 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (87 download)
Download or read book Crude Oil Pricing written by Michael Hall Yan and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper is intended to better understand the effects of speculation on crude oil prices. While speculation has many benefits such as increasing market liquidity and bearing market risks that other wish to offset, speculation can also create unwanted market volatility and economic bubbles. During the past decade, crude oil prices have been extremely volatile causing increased controversy between investors and regulators regarding the role that oil speculation has played in the price of crude oil. This report examines the relationship between crude oil spot and futures prices to determine the role arbitragers, speculators, and hedgers have had in crude oil pricing.
Author : Lars Matthiessen
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 1349063614
Total Pages : 217 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (49 download)
Download or read book The Impact of Rising Oil Prices on the World Economy written by Lars Matthiessen and published by Springer. This book was released on 1982-06-18 with total page 217 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Energy and Natural Resources
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 104 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 ( download)
Download or read book Non-commercial Institutional Investors on the Price of Oil written by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Energy and Natural Resources and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Luciana Juvenal
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (869 download)
Download or read book Speculation in the Oil Market written by Luciana Juvenal and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The run-up in oil prices since 2004 coincided with growing investment in commodity markets and increased price comovement among different commodities. We assess whether speculation in the oil market played a role in driving this salient empirical pattern. We identify oil shocks from a large dataset using a dynamic factor model (DFM). This method is motivated by the fact that a small scale VAR is not infomationally sufficient to identify the shocks. The main results are as follows: (i) While global demand shocks account for the largest share of oil price fluctuations, speculative shocks are the second most important driver. (ii) The increase in oil prices over the last decade is mainly driven by the strength of global demand. However, speculation played a significant role in the oil price increase between 2004 and 2008, and its subsequent collapse. (iii) The comovement between oil prices and the prices of other commodities is mainly explained by global demand shocks. Our results support the view that the recent oil price increase is mainly driven by the strength of global demand but that the financialization process of commodity markets also played a role.
Author : Bassam Fattouh
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781907555442
Total Pages : 25 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (554 download)
Download or read book The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets written by Bassam Fattouh and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Craig Pirrong
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139501976
Total Pages : 238 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (395 download)
Download or read book Commodity Price Dynamics written by Craig Pirrong and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011-10-31 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.
Author : Salvatore Carollo
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119962722
Total Pages : 212 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (199 download)
Download or read book Understanding Oil Prices written by Salvatore Carollo and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-12-27 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It’s a fair bet that most of what you think you know about oil prices is wrong. Despite the massive price fluctuations of the past decade, the received wisdom on the subject has remained fundamentally unchanged since the 1970s. When asked, most people – including politicians, financial analysts and pundits – will respond with a tired litany of reasons ranging from increased Chinese and Indian competition for diminishing resources and tensions in the Middle East, to manipulation by OPEC and exorbitant petrol taxes in the EU. Yet the facts belie these explanations. For instance, what really happened in late 2008 when, in just a few weeks, oil prices plummeted from $144 dollars to $37 dollars a barrel? Did Chinese and Indian demand suddenly dry up? Did Middle East conflicts magically resolve themselves? Did OPEC flood the market with crude? In each case the answer is a definitive no – quite the opposite in fact. Industry expert Salvatore Carollo explains that the truth behind today’s increasingly volatile oil market is that over the past two decades oil prices have come untethered from all classical notions of supply and demand and have transcended any country’s, consortium’s, cartel’s, or corporate entity’s powers to control them. At play is a subtler, more complex game than most analysts realise (or are unwilling to admit to), a very dangerous game involving runaway financial speculation, self-defeating government policymaking and a concerted disinvestment in refinery capacity among the oil majors. In Understanding Oil Prices Carollo identifies the key players in this dangerous game, exploring their competing interests and motivations, their moves and countermoves. Beginning with the 1976 oil embargo and moving through the 1986 Chernobyl incident, the implementation of the US Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, and the precipitous expansion of the oil futures market since the turn of the century, he traces the vast structural changes which have occurred within the oil industry over the past four decades, identifying their economic, social and geopolitical drivers, and analysing their fallout in the global economy. He explores the oil industry’s decision to scale down refining capacity in the face of increasing demand and the effects of global shortages of petrol, diesel, jet fuel, fuel oil, chemical feedstocks, lubricants and other essential finished products, and describes how, beginning in the year 2000, the oil futures market detached itself almost completely from the crude market, leading to the assetization of oil, and the crippling impact reckless speculation in oil futures has had on the global economy. Finally he proposes new, more sophisticated models that economists and financial analysts can use to make sense of today’s oil market, while offering industry leaders and government policymakers prescriptions for stabilising the market to ensure a relatively steady flow of affordable oil. A concise, authoritative guide to understanding the complex, oft misunderstood oil markets, Understanding Oil Prices is an important resource for energy market participants, commodity traders and investors, as well as business journalists and government policymakers alike.
Author : Basil Oberholzer
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1786437899
Total Pages : 389 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (864 download)
Download or read book Monetary Policy and Crude Oil written by Basil Oberholzer and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2017-07-28 with total page 389 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global crude oil market is critically important in many respects. It is the fuel that drives the global economy and, as such, is the focus of climate policies. Moreover, crude oil is the basis of a tradable financial asset. It is therefore connected to several outstanding macroeconomic developments of recent years, including financial market fluctuations, the financial crisis and the exceptional conduct of monetary policy. This book investigates the impacts of monetary policy and the financial system on the global crude oil market. Furthermore, it outlines how monetary policy may also be used to guarantee stability and to contribute to ecological sustainability.
Author : Yan Hu
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781369681000
Total Pages : 109 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (81 download)
Download or read book The Role of Financial Speculation in the World Crude Oil Market written by Yan Hu and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 109 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: When the crude oil price rocketed to $147 per barrel in July 2008 and then dropped to as low as $30 per barrel in December 2008, it catalyzed a hot debate about the factors of oil price fluctuations. A large number of papers argue that the main driver of the oil price fluctuations from 2003 to 2008 was due to economic fundamentals in the form of rapidly growing oil demand with stagnant oil supply. However, a different view is that speculation in the oil futures market caused the oil price to drift away from the level justified by the fundamental market forces of demand and supply because a large amount of investment flowed to the oil futures market during this period. This dissertation links the oil financial and spot markets through the oil futures-spot price spread and investigates if the financial activity in the oil futures market plays a critical role in oil spot price fluctuations between 2003 and 2008. In addition, this dissertation also discusses the recent oil price drop since July 2014 and studies whether the main driver of this recent oil price change is similar to that of the oil price change in 2008. ☐ Unlike other related literature that uses standard structural VAR, this dissertation applies a Time Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatilities that can capture both time-varying relationships between economic aggregates and time-varying impacts of different oil shocks. This approach disentangles the oil financial speculation shock from economic fundamental shocks. In the meantime, the findings of the TVP-VAR model are compared with those of the Bayesian VAR with stochastic volatilities (BVAR-SV) model, a benchmark model in this dissertation, to see if incorporating time-varying coefficients in the model can give better results. The results of the comparison show that the time variations in coefficients are insignificant and imposing time varying coefficients in the model not only increases the estimation computation work load but also affects the model’s estimation accuracy. Therefore, the conclusion in this dissertation comes from the results of the BVAR-SV model. The results imply that the large proportion of the oil price changes from 2003 to 2008 can be explained by the oil demand shock but this proportion has been decreasing since 2005. In addition, the contribution of the oil financial speculation shock has increased substantially in recent years. In sum, the main driver of oil price change is oil demand from 2003 to 2008, whereas the main driver from 2014 to 2015 is oil financial speculation in the oil futures market.
Author : Alessandro Cologni
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (16 download)
Download or read book Big Fish written by Alessandro Cologni and published by . This book was released on with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Bassam Fattouh
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)
Download or read book Drivers of Oil Prices: The Usefulness and Limitations of Non- Structural Model, the Demand-Supply Framework and Informal Approaches written by Bassam Fattouh and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Salvatore Carollo
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119962900
Total Pages : 212 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (199 download)
Download or read book Understanding Oil Prices written by Salvatore Carollo and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-11-22 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It’s a fair bet that most of what you think you know about oil prices is wrong. Despite the massive price fluctuations of the past decade, the received wisdom on the subject has remained fundamentally unchanged since the 1970s. When asked, most people – including politicians, financial analysts and pundits – will respond with a tired litany of reasons ranging from increased Chinese and Indian competition for diminishing resources and tensions in the Middle East, to manipulation by OPEC and exorbitant petrol taxes in the EU. Yet the facts belie these explanations. For instance, what really happened in late 2008 when, in just a few weeks, oil prices plummeted from $144 dollars to $37 dollars a barrel? Did Chinese and Indian demand suddenly dry up? Did Middle East conflicts magically resolve themselves? Did OPEC flood the market with crude? In each case the answer is a definitive no – quite the opposite in fact. Industry expert Salvatore Carollo explains that the truth behind today’s increasingly volatile oil market is that over the past two decades oil prices have come untethered from all classical notions of supply and demand and have transcended any country’s, consortium’s, cartel’s, or corporate entity’s powers to control them. At play is a subtler, more complex game than most analysts realise (or are unwilling to admit to), a very dangerous game involving runaway financial speculation, self-defeating government policymaking and a concerted disinvestment in refinery capacity among the oil majors. In Understanding Oil Prices Carollo identifies the key players in this dangerous game, exploring their competing interests and motivations, their moves and countermoves. Beginning with the 1976 oil embargo and moving through the 1986 Chernobyl incident, the implementation of the US Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, and the precipitous expansion of the oil futures market since the turn of the century, he traces the vast structural changes which have occurred within the oil industry over the past four decades, identifying their economic, social and geopolitical drivers, and analysing their fallout in the global economy. He explores the oil industry’s decision to scale down refining capacity in the face of increasing demand and the effects of global shortages of petrol, diesel, jet fuel, fuel oil, chemical feedstocks, lubricants and other essential finished products, and describes how, beginning in the year 2000, the oil futures market detached itself almost completely from the crude market, leading to the assetization of oil, and the crippling impact reckless speculation in oil futures has had on the global economy. Finally he proposes new, more sophisticated models that economists and financial analysts can use to make sense of today’s oil market, while offering industry leaders and government policymakers prescriptions for stabilising the market to ensure a relatively steady flow of affordable oil. A concise, authoritative guide to understanding the complex, oft misunderstood oil markets, Understanding Oil Prices is an important resource for energy market participants, commodity traders and investors, as well as business journalists and government policymakers alike.
