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The Role Of Financial Variables In Predicting Economic Activity In The Euro Area
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Book Synopsis The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area by : Mr.Raphael A. Espinoza
Download or read book The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area written by Mr.Raphael A. Espinoza and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-11-01 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. business cycle typically leads the European cycle by a few quarters and this can be used to forecast euro area GDP. We investigate whether financial variables carry additional information. We use vector autoregressions (VARs) which include the U.S. and the euro area GDPs as a minimal set of variables as well as growth in the Rest of the World (an aggregation of seven small countries) and selected combinations of financial variables. Impulse responses (in-sample) show that shocks to financial variables influence real activity. However, according to out-of-sample forecast exercises using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) metric, this macro-financial linkage would be weak: financial indicators do not improve short and medium term forecasts of real activity in the euro area, even when their timely availability, relative to GDP, is exploited. This result is partly due to the 'average' nature of the RMSE metric: when forecasting ability is assessed as if in real time (conditionally on the information available at the time of the forecast), we find that models using financial variables would have been preferred, ex ante, in several episodes, in particular between 1999 and 2002. This result suggests that one should not discard, on the basis of RMSE statistics, the use of predictive models that include financial variables if there is a theoretical prior that a financial shock is affecting growth.
Book Synopsis The role of financial variables in predicting economic activity by : Raphael Espinoza
Download or read book The role of financial variables in predicting economic activity written by Raphael Espinoza and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis IMF Working Papers by : Raphael A. Espinoza
Download or read book IMF Working Papers written by Raphael A. Espinoza and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Incorporating Macro-Financial Linkages into Forecasts Using Financial Conditions Indices: The Case of France by : Ms.Piyabha Kongsamut
Download or read book Incorporating Macro-Financial Linkages into Forecasts Using Financial Conditions Indices: The Case of France written by Ms.Piyabha Kongsamut and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-12-02 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How can information on financial conditions be used to better understand macroeconomic developments and improve macroeconomic projections? We investigate this question for France by constructing country-specific financial conditions indices (FCIs) that are tailored to movements in GDP, investment, private consumption and exports respectively. We rely on a VAR approach to estimate the weights of the financial components of each FCI, including equity market returns (which turn out having a relatively strong weight across all FCIs), private sector risk premiums, long-term interest rates, and banks’ credit standards. We find that the tailored FCIs are useful as leading indicators of GDP, investment, and exports, and as a contemporaneous indicator of private consumption. Credit volumes turn out to be lagging indicators of growth. The indices inform us on macro-financial linkages in France and are used to improve the accuracy of quarterly forecasting models and high-frequency “nowcast” models. We show that FCI-augmented models could have significantly improved forecasts during and after the global financial crisis.
Book Synopsis Do Financial Variables Help Forecasting Inflation and Real Activity in the Euro Area? by : Mario Forni
Download or read book Do Financial Variables Help Forecasting Inflation and Real Activity in the Euro Area? written by Mario Forni and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis A Real Time Coincident Indicator of the Euro Area Business Cycle by : Filippo Altissimo
Download or read book A Real Time Coincident Indicator of the Euro Area Business Cycle written by Filippo Altissimo and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Forecasting Euro-Area Recessions Using Time-Varying Binary Response Models for Financial Markets by : Christophe Bellégo
Download or read book Forecasting Euro-Area Recessions Using Time-Varying Binary Response Models for Financial Markets written by Christophe Bellégo and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent macroeconomic evolutions during the years 2008 and 2009 have pointed out the impact of financial markets on economic activity. In this paper, we propose to evaluate the ability of a set of financial variables to forecast recessions in the euro area by using a non-linear binary response model associated with information combination. Especially, we focus on a time-varying probit model whose parameters evolve according to a Markov chain. For various forecast horizons, we provide a readable and leading signal of recession by combining information according to two combining schemes over the sample 1970 - 2006. First we average recession probabilities and second we linearly combine variables through a dynamic factor model in order to estimate an innovative factor augmented probit model. Out-of sample results over the period 2007 - 2008 show that financial variables would have been helpful in predicting a recession signal as early as September 2007, that is around six months before the effective start of the 2008 - 2009 recession in the euro area.
Book Synopsis Do Financial Variables Help Forecasting Inflation and Real Activity in the Euro Area ? by : Mario Forni (Economiste.)
Download or read book Do Financial Variables Help Forecasting Inflation and Real Activity in the Euro Area ? written by Mario Forni (Economiste.) and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis A Random Walk Down the Economic Policy Street by : Juha-Pekka Junttila
Download or read book A Random Walk Down the Economic Policy Street written by Juha-Pekka Junttila and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recently introduced measure for Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) seems to have a role to play in forecasting out-of-sample values for the future real economic activity both for the euro area and the UK economies in the monthly data from 1997-2016. Inclusion of EPU measures either for the US, UK or overall European economies improves the forecasting ability of models based on standard financial market information especially for the period before the 2008 global financial and real economy crisis. However, during and after the most recent crisis period the simple financial market information in the form of the slope of the yield curve and excess stock market returns improves the out-of-sample forecast performance compared to an AR-benchmark model the most. Hence, the EPU information is important in times of 'normal' business cycles, but it might clearly contain similar information components as do the financial market return variables during turbulent crisis periods in the financial markets and real economies.
Book Synopsis The ECB’s Monetary Analysis Revisited by : Helge Berger
Download or read book The ECB’s Monetary Analysis Revisited written by Helge Berger and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-07 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monetary aggregates continue to play an important role in the ECB's policy strategy. This paper revisits the case for money, surveying the ongoing theoretical and empirical debate. The key conclusion is that an exclusive focus on non-monetary factors alone may leave the ECB with an incomplete picture of the economy. However, treating monetary factors as a separate matter is a second-best solution. Instead, a general-equilibrium inspired analytical framework that merges the economic and monetary "pillars" of the ECB's policy strategy appears the most promising way forward. The role played by monetary aggregates in such unified framework may be rather limited. However, an integrated framework would facilitate the presentation of policy decisions by providing a clearer narrative of the relative role of money in the interaction with other economic and financial sector variables, including asset prices, and their impact on consumer prices.
Book Synopsis Corporate Finance in the Euro Area by :
Download or read book Corporate Finance in the Euro Area written by and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis by : Laurent Ferrara
Download or read book International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis written by Laurent Ferrara and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-06-13 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.
Book Synopsis Productivity and Job Flows by : Juha Kilponen
Download or read book Productivity and Job Flows written by Juha Kilponen and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper focuses on productivity dynamics of a firm-worker match as a potential explanation for the 'unemployment volatility puzzle'. We let new matches and continuing jobs differ in terms of productivity level and sensitivity to aggregate productivity shocks. As a result, new matches have a higher destruction rate and lower, but more volatile, wages than old matches, as new hires receive technology associated with the latest vintage. In our model, an aggregate productivity shock generates a persistent productivity difference between the two types of matches, creating an incentive to open new productive vacancies and to destroy old matches that are temporarily less productive. The model produces a well behaved Beveridge curve, despite endogenous job destruction and more volatile vacancies and unemployment, without needing to rely on differing wage setting mechanisms for new and continuing jobs.
Book Synopsis The Euro Area Business Cycle by : Lucrezia Reichlin
Download or read book The Euro Area Business Cycle written by Lucrezia Reichlin and published by Centre for Economic Policy Research. This book was released on 2004 with total page 103 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Assessing Macro-Financial Linkages by : Rafael Gerke
Download or read book Assessing Macro-Financial Linkages written by Rafael Gerke and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent global financial crisis has increased interest in macroeconomic models that incorporate financial linkages. Here, we compare the simulation properties of five mediumsized general equilibrium models used in Eurosystem central banks which incorporate such linkages. The financial frictions typically considered are the financial accelerator mechanism (convex spread costs related to firms' leverage ratios) and collateral constraints (based on asset values). The harmonized shocks we consider illustrate the workings and mechanisms underlying the financial-macro linkages embodied in the models. We also look at historical shock decompositions of real GDP growth across the models since 2005 in order to shed light on the common driving factors underlying the recent financial crisis. In these exercises, the models share qualitatively similar and interpretable features. This gives us confidence that we have some broad understanding of the mechanisms involved. In addition, we also survey the current and developing trends in the literature on financial frictions.
Book Synopsis Europe and the Euro by : Alberto Alesina
Download or read book Europe and the Euro written by Alberto Alesina and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2010-04-15 with total page 477 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is rare for countries to give up their currencies and thus their ability to influence such critical aspects of their economies as interest and exchange rates. Yet ten years ago a number of European countries did exactly that when they adopted the euro. Despite some dissent, there were a number of arguments in favor of this policy change: it would facilitate exchange of goods, money, and people by decreasing costs; it would increase trade; and it would enhance efficiency and competitiveness at the international level. A decade is an ideal time frame over which to evaluate the success of the euro and whether it has lived up to expectations. To that aim, Europe and the Euro looks at a number of important issues, including the effects of the euro on reform of goods and labor markets; its influence on business cycles and trade among members; and whether the single currency has induced convergence or divergence in the economic performance of member countries. While adoption of the euro may not have met the expectations of its most optimistic proponents, the benefits have been many, and there is reason to believe that the euro is robust enough to survive recent economic shocks. This volume is an essential reference on the first ten years of the euro and the workings of a monetary union.
Book Synopsis Powering the Digital Economy: Opportunities and Risks of Artificial Intelligence in Finance by : El Bachir Boukherouaa
Download or read book Powering the Digital Economy: Opportunities and Risks of Artificial Intelligence in Finance written by El Bachir Boukherouaa and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-22 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses the impact of the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in the financial sector. It highlights the benefits these technologies bring in terms of financial deepening and efficiency, while raising concerns about its potential in widening the digital divide between advanced and developing economies. The paper advances the discussion on the impact of this technology by distilling and categorizing the unique risks that it could pose to the integrity and stability of the financial system, policy challenges, and potential regulatory approaches. The evolving nature of this technology and its application in finance means that the full extent of its strengths and weaknesses is yet to be fully understood. Given the risk of unexpected pitfalls, countries will need to strengthen prudential oversight.
