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The Role Of Factor Strength And Pricing Errors For Estimation And Inference In Asset Pricing Models
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Book Synopsis Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova by : Juan J. Dolado
Download or read book Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova written by Juan J. Dolado and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2022-09-21 with total page 203 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Both parts of Volume 44 of Advances in Econometrics pay tribute to Fabio Canova for his major contributions to economics over the last four decades.
Book Synopsis The Role of Pricing Errors in Linear Asset Pricing Models with Strong, Semi-strong, and Latent Factors by : M. Hashem Pesaran
Download or read book The Role of Pricing Errors in Linear Asset Pricing Models with Strong, Semi-strong, and Latent Factors written by M. Hashem Pesaran and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Regression Based Estimation of Dynamic Asset Pricing Models by : Tobias Adrian
Download or read book Regression Based Estimation of Dynamic Asset Pricing Models written by Tobias Adrian and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose regression based estimators for beta representations of dynamic asset pricing models with an affine pricing kernel specification. We allow for state variables that are cross sectional pricing factors, forecasting variables for the price of risk, and factors that are both. The estimators explicitly allow for time varying prices of risk, time varying betas and serially dependent pricing factors. Our approach nests the Fama-MacBeth two-pass estimator as a special case. We provide asymptotic multistage standard errors necessary to conduct inference for asset pricing tests. We illustrate our new estimators in an application to the joint pricing of stocks and bonds. The application features strongly time varying, highly significant prices of risk which are found to be quantitatively more important than time varying betas in reducing pricing errors.
Book Synopsis Empirical Asset Pricing by : Wayne Ferson
Download or read book Empirical Asset Pricing written by Wayne Ferson and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-03-12 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.
Book Synopsis Essays in Asset Pricing and Machine Learning by : Jason Yue Zhu
Download or read book Essays in Asset Pricing and Machine Learning written by Jason Yue Zhu and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this thesis we study two applications of machine learning to estimate models that explains asset prices by harnessing the vast quantity of asset and economic information while also capturing complex structure among sources of risk. First we show how to build a cross-section of asset returns, that is, a small set of basis or test assets that capture complex information contained in a given set of characteristics and span the Stochastic Discount Factor (SDF). We use decision trees to generalize the concept of conventional sorting and introduce a new approach to robustly recover the SDF, which endogenously yields optimal portfolio splits. These low-dimensional investment strategies are well diversified, easily interpretable, and reflect many characteristics at the same time. Empirically, we show that traditional cross-sections of portfolios and their combinations, especially deciles and long-short anomaly factors, present too low a hurdle for model evaluation and serve as the wrong building blocks for the SDF. Constructed from the same pricing signals, our cross-sections have significantly higher (up to a factor of three) out-of-sample Sharpe ratios and pricing errors relative to the leading reduced-form asset pricing models. In the second part of the thesis, I present deep neural networks to estimate an asset pricing model for individual stock returns that takes advantage of the vast amount of conditioning information, while keeping a fully flexible form and accounting for time-variation. The key innovations are to use the fundamental no-arbitrage condition as criterion function to construct the most informative test assets with an adversarial approach and to extract the states of the economy from many macroeconomic time series. Our asset pricing model outperforms out-of-sample all benchmark approaches in terms of Sharpe ratio, explained variation and pricing errors and identifies the key factors that drive asset prices.
Book Synopsis Test Assets and Weak Factors by : Stefano Giglio
Download or read book Test Assets and Weak Factors written by Stefano Giglio and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Estimation and testing of factor models in asset pricing requires choosing a set of test assets. The choice of test assets determines how well different factor risk premia can be identified: if only few assets are exposed to a factor, that factor is weak, which makes standard estimation and inference incorrect. In other words, the strength of a factor is not an inherent property of the factor: it is a property of the cross-section used in the analysis. We propose a novel way to select assets from a universe of test assets and estimate the risk premium of a factor of interest, as well as the entire stochastic discount factor, that explicitly accounts for weak factors and test assets with highly correlated risk exposures. We refer to our methodology as supervised principal component analysis (SPCA), because it iterates an asset selection step and a principal-component estimation step. We provide the asymptotic properties of our estimator, and compare its limiting behavior with that of alternative estimators proposed in the recent literature, which rely on PCA, Ridge, Lasso, and Partial Least Squares (PLS). We find that the SPCA is superior in the presence of weak factors, both in theory and in finite samples. We illustrate the use of SPCA by applying it to estimate the risk premia of several tradable and nontradable factors, to evaluate asset managers' performance, and to de-noise asset pricing factors.
Book Synopsis Empirical Tests of Asset Pricing Models with Individual Assets by : Narasimhan Jegadeesh
Download or read book Empirical Tests of Asset Pricing Models with Individual Assets written by Narasimhan Jegadeesh and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To attenuate an inherent errors-in-variables bias, portfolios are widely employed to test asset pricing models; but portfolios might mask relevant risk- or return-related features of individual assets. We propose an instrumental variables approach that allows the use of individual stocks as test assets, yet delivers consistent estimates of ex-post risk premiums. This estimator also yields well-specified tests in small samples. The market risk premium under the CAPM and the liquidity-adjusted CAPM, premiums on risk factors under the Fama-French three- and five-factors models and the Hou, Xue, and Zhang (2015) four-factor model are all insignificant after controlling for asset characteristics.
Book Synopsis Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis by : Matthew E. Kahn
Download or read book Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis written by Matthew E. Kahn and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-10-11 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where labor productivity is affected by country-specific climate variables—defined as deviations of temperature and precipitation from their historical norms. Using a panel data set of 174 countries over the years 1960 to 2014, we find that per-capita real output growth is adversely affected by persistent changes in the temperature above or below its historical norm, but we do not obtain any statistically significant effects for changes in precipitation. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that a persistent increase in average global temperature by 0.04°C per year, in the absence of mitigation policies, reduces world real GDP per capita by more than 7 percent by 2100. On the other hand, abiding by the Paris Agreement, thereby limiting the temperature increase to 0.01°C per annum, reduces the loss substantially to about 1 percent. These effects vary significantly across countries depending on the pace of temperature increases and variability of climate conditions. We also provide supplementary evidence using data on a sample of 48 U.S. states between 1963 and 2016, and show that climate change has a long-lasting adverse impact on real output in various states and economic sectors, and on labor productivity and employment.
Book Synopsis Efficient Estimation of Linear Asset Pricing Models with Moving-average Errors by : Lars Peter Hansen
Download or read book Efficient Estimation of Linear Asset Pricing Models with Moving-average Errors written by Lars Peter Hansen and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Robust Inference in Linear Asset Pricing Models by : Nikolay Gospodinov
Download or read book Robust Inference in Linear Asset Pricing Models written by Nikolay Gospodinov and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many asset pricing models include risk factors that are only weakly correlated with the asset returns. We show that in the presence of a factor that is independent of the returns ("useless factor"), the standard inference procedures for evaluating its pricing ability could be highly misleading in misspecified models. Our proposed model selection procedure, which is robust to useless factors and potential model misspecification, restores the standard inference and proves to be effective in eliminating factors that do not improve the model's pricing ability. The practical relevance of our analysis is illustrated using simulations and an empirical application.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Risk and Asset Pricing by : John Ammer
Download or read book Macroeconomic Risk and Asset Pricing written by John Ammer and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Evaluating the Specification Errors of Asset Pricing Models by : Robert J. Hodrick
Download or read book Evaluating the Specification Errors of Asset Pricing Models written by Robert J. Hodrick and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the specification errors of several asset pricing models using the methodology of Hansen and Jagannathan (1997) and a common data set. The models are the CAPM, the Consumption CAPM, the Jagannathan and Wang (1996) conditional CAPM, the Campbell (1996) dynamic asset pricing model, the Cochrane (1996) production-based model, and the Fama-French (1993) three-factor and five-factor models. We use returns on the Fama-French twenty-five portfolios sorted by size and book-to-market ratio and the risk-free rate as our test assets. The sample is 1952 to 1997. We allow the parameters of the models' pricing kernels to fluctuate with the business cycle which we measure in two ways. One uses the Hodrick-Prescott (1997) filter applied to either industrial production for monthly models or real GNP for quarterly models. The second approach for quarterly models uses the consumption-wealth measure developed by Lettau and Ludvigson (1999). While we cannot reject correct pricing for Campbell's model, a stability test indicates that the parameters may not be stable. None of the models correctly prices returns that are scaled by the term premium
Book Synopsis Essays on Asset Pricing with Stochastic Discount Factors by : St?phane Chr?tien
Download or read book Essays on Asset Pricing with Stochastic Discount Factors written by St?phane Chr?tien and published by LAP Lambert Academic Publishing. This book was released on 2012-02 with total page 136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many financial models are evaluated using the stochastic discount factor (SDF) approach because of its simplicity, flexibility and universality. The two essays of this work exploit these characteristics to re-examine two long-standing asset pricing topics: consumption-based and performance measurement models. The first essay develops a methodology to understand and compare the sources of pricing errors in models based on SDF moments. The method allows a new investigation of preference-based explanations of the risk-free rate, term premium and risk premium puzzles. The second essay presents a method to measure performance evaluation by developing bounds on admissible performance measures that are free from inference errors. The bounds are furthermore used in ranking mutual funds and as a diagnostic instrument for evaluating candidate performance measures. Each essay carefully establishes the empirical relevancy of the proposed methodologies. These extensions of the SDF framework provide important new insights and have numerous finance applications for academic researchers and practitioners.
Book Synopsis Testing Linear Factor Pricing Models with Individual Securities in Japan by : Ryohei Oishi
Download or read book Testing Linear Factor Pricing Models with Individual Securities in Japan written by Ryohei Oishi and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study proposes a multivariate test for linear factor asset pricing models when the number of assets, N, is larger than the time dimension of returns, T. We extend the exact test proposed by Gibbons et al. (1989) to obtain a nonsingular covariance matrix with fewer estimation errors in the case of T
Book Synopsis Specification Tests of Asset Pricing Models Using Excess Returns by : Cesare Robotti
Download or read book Specification Tests of Asset Pricing Models Using Excess Returns written by Cesare Robotti and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we discuss the impact of different formulations of asset pricing models on the outcome of specification tests that are performed using excess returns. We point out that the popular way of specifying the stochastic discount factor (SDF) as a linear function of the factors is problematic because (1) the specification test statistic is not invariant to an affine transformation of the factors, and (2) the SDFs of competing models can have very different means. In contrast, an alternative specification that defines the SDF as a linear function of the de-meaned factors is free from these two problems and is more appropriate for model comparison. In addition, we suggest that a modification of the traditional Hansen-Jagannathan distance (HJ-distance) is needed when we use the de-meaned factors. The modified HJ-distance uses the inverse of the covariance matrix (instead of the second moment matrix) of excess returns as the weighting matrix to aggregate pricing errors. Asymptotic distributions of the modified HJ-distance and of the traditional HJ-distance based on the de-meaned SDF under the correctly specified model and the misspecified models are provided. Finally, we propose a simple methodology for computing the standard errors of the estimated SDF parameters that are robust to model misspecification. We show that failure to take model misspecification into account is likely to understate the standard errors of the estimates of the SDF parameters and lead us to erroneously conclude that certain factors are priced.
Book Synopsis Factor Models, Machine Learning, and Asset Pricing by : Stefano Giglio
Download or read book Factor Models, Machine Learning, and Asset Pricing written by Stefano Giglio and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We survey recent methodological contributions in asset pricing using factor models and machine learning. We organize these results based on their primary objectives: estimating expected returns, factors, risk exposures, risk premia, and the stochastic discount factor as well as model comparison and alpha testing. We also discuss a variety of asymptotic schemes for inference. Our survey is a guide for financial economists interested in harnessing modern tools with rigor, robustness, and power to make new asset pricing discoveries, and it highlights directions for future research and methodological advances.
Book Synopsis Essays on Asset Pricing and Empirical Estimation by : Pooya Nazeran
Download or read book Essays on Asset Pricing and Empirical Estimation written by Pooya Nazeran and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 138 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: A considerable portion of the asset pricing literature considers the demand schedule for asset prices to be perfectly elastic (flat). As argued, asset prices are determined using information about future payoff distribution, as well as the discount rate; consequently, an asset would be priced independent of its available supply. Furthermore, such a flat demand curve is considered to be a consequence of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. My dissertation evaluates and questions the factuality of these assertions. I approach this problem from both an empirical and a theoretical perspective. The general argument is that asset prices do respond to supply-shocks; and changes in aggregate demand, stemming from preference changes, new international investments, or quantitative easing by the Fed, can result in price changes. Hence, asset prices are determined by both demand and supply factors. In the first essay, "Downward Sloping Asset Demand: Evidence from the Treasury Bills Market," I report on my empirical study which establishes the existence of a downward sloping demand curve (DSDC) in the T-bill market. In the second essay, "Asset Pricing: Inelastic Supply," I examine the theoretical issues concerning a downward sloping demand curve. I begin by clarifying a common confusion in the literature, namely, that many asset pricing models imply a flat demand curve. I show that the prominent asset pricing models, including Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) and Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model (CCAPM), all have an underlying DSDC. I further show that, while these models imply the relevance of supply, they are inconvenient as a vehicle for the estimation and analysis of the DSDC in the data. For those purposes, I develop an asset pricing framework based on the stochastic discount factor framework, specifically designed with a DSDC at its heart. I end the essay with a discussion of the framework's implications and applications. In the third essay I develop on the Factor-Augmented Vector-Autoregression (FAVAR) literature, proposing a bias-corrected method. As implemented in the literature, the Principal Component Analysis stage of FAVAR introduces a classical-error-in-variable problem which leads to bias. I propose an instrument-based method for bias correction.
