The Role Of Distortions And Market Imperfections In Real Exchange Rate Determination

Author : Ying Zhang
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (1 download)

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Download or read book Economic Transitions in China and Japan written by Ying Zhang and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: [Truncated] This dissertation aims to offer insights into the path of China's and Japan's recent economic transitions and the implications for their real exchange rates. The literature on the determination of real exchange rates is reviewed in the first substantive chapter, confirming that, in the short run, it is dominated by cross-border financial capital flows and their associated influence on domestic aggregate demand. Economic fundamentals play key roles in both the short and long runs, though they are most influential in the long run. Indeed, shocks to technology, demographic structure, consumer preferences, the fiscal balance, the money supply, and to distortions such as trade barriers and imperfect competition can all affect real exchange rates. An analytical model describing short-run determinants is developed to codify these effects. The second substantive chapter examines China's exchange rate puzzle. International pressure to revalue China's currency stems in part from the expectation that rapid economic growth should be associated with an underlying real exchange rate appreciation. This hinges on the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis. A dynamic general equilibrium model is adopted to simulate the economy and show that, during the period of 1994-2003, trade reforms and a rising national saving rate were offsetting forces in the presence of elastic labour supply. This is followed by an examination of the possible determinants of the striking transition to real appreciation thereafter, noting mounting evidence that an improved rural terms of trade tightened China's labour market, slowed rural to urban migration and raised domestic unit costs. The third substantive chapter revisits Japan's economic stagnation and is focussed on the keys to its impending recovery. The many claimed sources of Japan's stagnation are reviewed, with particular attention to the extraordinary gyrations in Japan's real exchange rate between the late 1980s and the mid-1990s. These played an important role in the economic performance of the time. A smooth real depreciation is shown to be part of the recipe for recovery, the potential sources of which are analysed using a multi-region global dynamic general equilibrium model. Both demand and supply side determinants of the real exchange rate are considered and it is suggested that a further sudden and substantial real appreciation should be avoided. Moreover, it is shown that improvements in Japan's services sector productivity would bring about the needed smooth real depreciation and that this would play a key role in promoting the recovery.