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The Risks From Climate Change To Sovereign Debt In Europe
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Book Synopsis The Risks from Climate Change to Sovereign Debt in Europe by : Stauros Andrea Zenios
Download or read book The Risks from Climate Change to Sovereign Debt in Europe written by Stauros Andrea Zenios and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The exposure of European Union sovereigns to climate risks can be acute, from extreme weather, or chronic, from the productivity effects of gradual temperature increase, increased sea levels and the transition to a low-carbon economy that results in repricing of assets. Climate-related innovations can also spur growth. These risks are priced by investors and can affect sovereign credit ratings. Governments and fiscal stability authorities have an interest in the sovereign-debt implications of climate change being transparent. To this end, we look at the exposure of EU sovereigns to climate risks, study international best practices, and describe the transmission channels from climate change to public finance. European union institutions and national fiscal authorities should mainstream climate risk analysis in public finance. Stress testing of debt dynamic requires a link between regional climate scenarios and country debt dynamics. We argue for the adoption of an architecture of narrative climate scenarios, to guide national policymaking. Narrative Scenarios can be generated using integrated assessment models. As an illustration, we apply two prominent models to generate rough bounds on the extent of the risk for Italian debt from climate change. This raises issues about the models used. Coordination by EU institutions to develop regional scenarios will ensure acceptability, raise ambitions in dealing with climate risks and encourage the fiscal authorities to think of solutions. A network for climate-proofing public finance will bring together EU and member-state institutions. We also recommend budgeting for climate expenditures and contingent liabilities, and using risk-sharing instruments, with disclosure of the risks to public finance from climate change.
Book Synopsis Risks from Climate Change to Sovereign Debt in Europe by :
Download or read book Risks from Climate Change to Sovereign Debt in Europe written by and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis This Changes Everything: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Bonds by : Mr.Serhan Cevik
Download or read book This Changes Everything: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Bonds written by Mr.Serhan Cevik and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-06-05 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change is already a systemic risk to the global economy. While there is a large body of literature documenting potential economic consequences, there is scarce research on the link between climate change and sovereign risk. This paper therefore investigates the impact of climate change vulnerability and resilience on sovereign bond yields and spreads in 98 advanced and developing countries over the period 1995–2017. We find that the vulnerability and resilience to climate change have a significant impact on the cost government borrowing, after controlling for conventional determinants of sovereign risk. That is, countries that are more resilient to climate change have lower bond yields and spreads relative to countries with greater vulnerability to risks associated with climate change. Furthermore, partitioning the sample into country groups reveals that the magnitude and statistical significance of these effects are much greater in developing countries with weaker capacity to adapt to and mitigate the consequences of climate change.
Download or read book Sovereign Debt written by S. Ali Abbas and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2019-10-21 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The last time global sovereign debt reached the level seen today was at the end of the Second World War, and this shaped a generation of economic policymaking. International institutions were transformed, country policies were often draconian and distortive, and many crises ensued. By the early 1970s, when debt fell back to pre-war levels, the world was radically different. It is likely that changes of a similar magnitude -for better and for worse - will play out over coming decades. Sovereign Debt: A Guide for Economists and Practitioners is an attempt to build some structure around the issues of sovereign debt to help guide economists, practitioners and policymakers through this complicated, but not intractable, subject. Sovereign Debt brings together some of the world's leading researchers and specialists in sovereign debt to cover a range of sub-disciplines within this vast topic. It explores debt management with debt sustainability; debt reduction policies with crisis prevention policies; and the history with the conjuncture. It is a foundation text for all those interested in sovereign debt, with a particular focus real world examples and issues.
Book Synopsis Managing Climate Risk in the U.S. Financial System by : Leonardo Martinez-Diaz
Download or read book Managing Climate Risk in the U.S. Financial System written by Leonardo Martinez-Diaz and published by U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission . This book was released on 2020-09-09 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This publication serves as a roadmap for exploring and managing climate risk in the U.S. financial system. It is the first major climate publication by a U.S. financial regulator. The central message is that U.S. financial regulators must recognize that climate change poses serious emerging risks to the U.S. financial system, and they should move urgently and decisively to measure, understand, and address these risks. Achieving this goal calls for strengthening regulators’ capabilities, expertise, and data and tools to better monitor, analyze, and quantify climate risks. It calls for working closely with the private sector to ensure that financial institutions and market participants do the same. And it calls for policy and regulatory choices that are flexible, open-ended, and adaptable to new information about climate change and its risks, based on close and iterative dialogue with the private sector. At the same time, the financial community should not simply be reactive—it should provide solutions. Regulators should recognize that the financial system can itself be a catalyst for investments that accelerate economic resilience and the transition to a net-zero emissions economy. Financial innovations, in the form of new financial products, services, and technologies, can help the U.S. economy better manage climate risk and help channel more capital into technologies essential for the transition. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5247742
Book Synopsis Tracking Global Demand for Advanced Economy Sovereign Debt by : Mr.Serkan Arslanalp
Download or read book Tracking Global Demand for Advanced Economy Sovereign Debt written by Mr.Serkan Arslanalp and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-12-03 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent events have shown that sovereigns, just like banks, can be subject to runs, highlighting the importance of the investor base for their liabilities. This paper proposes a methodology for compiling internationally comparable estimates of investor holdings of sovereign debt. Based on this methodology, it introduces a dataset for 24 major advanced economies that can be used to track US$42 trillion of sovereign debt holdings on a quarterly basis over 2004-11. While recent outflows from euro periphery countries have received wide attention, most sovereign borrowers have continued to increase reliance on foreign investors. This may have helped reduce borrowing costs, but it can imply higher refinancing risks going forward. Meanwhile, advanced economy banks’ exposure to their own government debt has begun to increase across the board after the global financial crisis, strengthening sovereign-bank linkages. In light of these risks, the paper proposes a framework—sovereign funding shock scenarios (FSS)—to conduct forward-looking analysis to assess sovereigns’ vulnerability to sudden investor outflows, which can be used along with standard debt sustainability analyses (DSA). It also introduces two risk indices—investor base risk index (IRI) and foreign investor position index (FIPI)—to assess sovereigns’ vulnerability to shifts in investor behavior.
Book Synopsis An Apocalypse Foretold: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Defaults by : Mr.Serhan Cevik
Download or read book An Apocalypse Foretold: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Defaults written by Mr.Serhan Cevik and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2020-11-08 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change poses an existential threat to the global economy. While there is a growing body of literature on the economic consequences of climate change, research on the link between climate change and sovereign default risk is nonexistent. We aim to fill this gap in the literature by estimating the impact of climate change vulnerability and resilience on the probability of sovereign debt default. Using a sample of 116 countries over the period 1995–2017, we find that climate change vulnerability and resilience have significant effects on the probability of sovereign debt default, especially among low-income countries. That is, countries with greater vulnerability to climate change face a higher likelihood of debt default compared to more climate resilient countries. These findings remain robust to a battery of sensitivity checks, including alternative measures of sovereign debt default, model specifications, and estimation methodologies.
Book Synopsis The European Sovereign Debt Crisis and Its Impacts on Financial Markets by : Go Tamakoshi
Download or read book The European Sovereign Debt Crisis and Its Impacts on Financial Markets written by Go Tamakoshi and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The global financial crisis saw many Eurozone countries bearing excessive public debt. This led the government bond yields of some peripheral countries to rise sharply, resulting in the outbreak of the European sovereign debt crisis. The debt crisis is characterized by its immediate spread from Greece, the country of origin, to its neighboring countries and the connection between the Eurozone banking sector and the public sector debt. Addressing these interesting features, this book sheds light on the impacts of the crisis on various financial markets in Europe. This book is among the first to conduct a thorough empirical analysis of the European sovereign debt crisis. It analyzes, using advanced econometric methodologies, why the crisis escalated so prominently, having significant impacts on a wide range of financial markets, not just limited to government bond markets. The book also allows one to understand the consequences and the overall impact of such a debt crisis, enabling investors and policymakers to formulate diversification strategies, and create suitable regulatory frameworks. "--
Book Synopsis Accounting for Climate Policies in Europe's Sovereign Debt Market by : Marta Domínguez-Jiménez
Download or read book Accounting for Climate Policies in Europe's Sovereign Debt Market written by Marta Domínguez-Jiménez and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: International debt investors increasingly demand assets that are aligned with environmental, social and governance objectives. Sovereign debt is being belatedly swept up in this change. This huge asset class represents a uniquely long-term claim and funds a wide range of public expenditure, both brown and green. Public capital expenditures will be a central part of the roughly €3 trillion investment budget needed to pay for the European Green Deal. European Union countries have so far met investor appetite for climate-aligned assets through sovereign green bonds, the issuance of which has rapidly grown since 2017. The EU itself will also issue green bonds in large volumes. However, because of some inherent flaws in such instruments and as their still-weak frameworks, these bonds are unlikely to meet the environmental criteria demanded by investors, and will complicate established principles in sovereign debt management. Much more comprehensive information is needed on the climate related aspects of the public budgets of EU countries. Greater transparency in this respect would support stability and improve the functioning of capital markets, given that sovereign debt plays a pivotal role in all investor portfolios and also in regulatory and monetary policy. Adoption by sovereign issuers of green budgeting principles, based on a common taxonomy of sustainable activities, would enhance transparency. It could also be driven by investors who, under new EU rules, must disclose the climate-related aspects of all financial instruments offered in the capital market.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic and Financial Policies for Climate Change Mitigation: A Review of the Literature by : Signe Krogstrup
Download or read book Macroeconomic and Financial Policies for Climate Change Mitigation: A Review of the Literature written by Signe Krogstrup and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-09-04 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change is one of the greatest challenges of this century. Mitigation requires a large-scale transition to a low-carbon economy. This paper provides an overview of the rapidly growing literature on the role of macroeconomic and financial policy tools in enabling this transition. The literature provides a menu of policy tools for mitigation. A key conclusion is that fiscal tools are first in line and central, but can and may need to be complemented by financial and monetary policy instruments. Some tools and policies raise unanswered questions about policy tool assignment and mandates, which we describe. The literature is scarce, however, on the most effective policy mix and the role of mitigation tools and goals in the overall policy framework.
Book Synopsis From Climate Change to Cyber-attacks: Incipient Financial-stability Risks for the Euro Area by : Zsolt M. Darvas
Download or read book From Climate Change to Cyber-attacks: Incipient Financial-stability Risks for the Euro Area written by Zsolt M. Darvas and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The European Central Bank's November 2019 Financial Stability Review highlighted the risks to growth in an environment of global uncertainty. It also discusses sovereign-debt concerns in case interest rates increase, and risks arising from household and corporate debt. It assesses the risks from a possible overvaluation of asset prices, and evaluates risks within the banking and non-banking system, and climate risks. On the whole, the ECB report is comprehensive and covers the main risks to euro-area financial stability. However, some issues deserve more attention. First, the assessment of risks in the housing market should be more nuanced. Current housing markets relative to those pre-crisis seem to be far less driven by mortgage credit, and the size of the construction sector has not increased. This is possibly good news for financial stability because a house price correction would transmit less into mortgage defaults and corrections to economic activity. Second, there should be greater emphasis on changes in market expectations of interest rates, which can have substantial effects on asset prices. This could be particularly relevant if interest rate changes are not driven by real-economy developments. Third, the financial system relies on a safe asset as a reference. We show that the supply of safe sovereign assets in the euro area has fallen dramatically, driven by deteriorating sovereign credit ratings and reduced supplies of bonds from the safest countries. More safe assets would support financial stability. Fourth, though climate risks to financial stability must be taken seriously, risk weights on green assets should not be reduced since they still contain normal financial stability risks. Instead, risk weights for brown assets should be increased. Fifth, the ECB does not consider cybersecurity and hybrid threats in its assessment. These threats are significant risks for financial institutions and at the more systemic level. Policies to address financial-stability concerns include macroprudential measures. In this respect, we discover discrepancies between EU countries: countries with the same levels of house-price overvaluation have adopted very different macroprudential measures. Some countries might thus have done too much, while others have done too little. When it comes to preventing the next recession or reducing its impact, we argue that EU policymakers need to be better prepared to use discretionary fiscal policy earlier and more forcefully, in particular because the ability of monetary authorities to react to the next cyclical downturn is very limited.
Book Synopsis Global Waves of Debt by : M. Ayhan Kose
Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Book Synopsis Financial Crisis and Sovereign Debt by : Francesco Capriglione
Download or read book Financial Crisis and Sovereign Debt written by Francesco Capriglione and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A key element for underst ...
Book Synopsis The Fiscal Impact of Extreme Weather and Climate Events by :
Download or read book The Fiscal Impact of Extreme Weather and Climate Events written by and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Assessing fiscal risks from climate change is a critical and challenging issue. In this paper, we analyse the fiscal implications of acute physical risks from climate change, as we aim to capture debt sustainability risks associated with extreme weather and climate events. This is done by providing stylised stress tests for selected EU Member States, designed as shocks to public finances and growth. To do so, we rely on a comparative approach. Climate-related aggravating factors to debt sustainability are captured via a global natural disaster database and available forward-looking estimates of economic losses from different climate events, projected under different global warming pathways. Our results highlight that extreme weather and climate events may pose risks to debt sustainability, although remaining manageable across the EU under standard global warming scenarios. Our findings emphasise the relevance of implementing large-scale, rapid, and immediate climate mitigation and adaptation measures to dampen the adverse economic and fiscal impacts of potentially more frequent and intense extreme events, thereby reducing countries' exposure, their vulnerability, and debt sustainability risks.
Book Synopsis Contagion Risks in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis by : Alesia Kalbaska
Download or read book Contagion Risks in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis written by Alesia Kalbaska and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis What is the risk of European sovereign debt defaults? : fiscal space, CDS spreads and market pricing of risk by : Joshua Aizenman
Download or read book What is the risk of European sovereign debt defaults? : fiscal space, CDS spreads and market pricing of risk written by Joshua Aizenman and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We estimate the pricing of sovereign risk for sixty countries based on fiscal space (debt/tax; deficits/tax) and other economic fundamentals over 2005-10. We measure how accurately the model predicts sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads, focusing in particular on the five countries in the South-West Eurozone Periphery (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain). Dynamic panel estimates of the model suggest that fiscal space and other macroeconomic factors are statistically significant and economically important determinants of market-based sovereign risk. Although the explanatory power of fiscal space measures drop during the crisis, the TED spread, trade openness, external debt and inflation play a larger role. As expectations of market volatility jumped during the crisis, the weakly concavity of creditors' payoff probably accounts for the emergence of TED spread as a key pricing factor. However, risk-pricing of the South-West Eurozone Periphery countries is not predicted accurately by the model either in-sample or out-of-sample: unpredicted high spreads are evident during global crisis period, especially in 2010 when the sovereign debt crisis swept over the periphery area. We "match" the periphery group with five middle income countries outside Europe that were closest in terms of fiscal space during the European fiscal crisis. We find that Eurozone periphery default risk is priced much higher than the "matched" countries in 2010, even allowing for differences in fundamentals. One interpretation is that the market has mispriced risk in the Eurozone periphery. An alternative interpretation is that the market is pricing not on current fundamentals but future fundamentals, expecting the periphery fiscal space to deteriorate markedly and posing a high risk of debt restructuring. Adjustment challenges of the Eurozone periphery may be perceived as economically and politically more difficult than the matched group of middle income countrie.
Book Synopsis Investing in Climate, Investing in Growth by : OECD
Download or read book Investing in Climate, Investing in Growth written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2017-05-23 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report provides an assessment of how governments can generate inclusive economic growth in the short term, while making progress towards climate goals to secure sustainable long-term growth. It describes the development pathways required to meet the Paris Agreement objectives.
