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The Reliability Of Canadian Output Gap Estimates
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Author :Jean-Philippe Cayen Publisher :Frankfurt am Main : Deutsche Bundesbank ISBN 13 :9783865580184 Total Pages :56 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (81 download)
Book Synopsis The Reliability of Canadian Output Gap Estimates by : Jean-Philippe Cayen
Download or read book The Reliability of Canadian Output Gap Estimates written by Jean-Philippe Cayen and published by Frankfurt am Main : Deutsche Bundesbank. This book was released on 2004 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time by : Athanasios Orphanides
Download or read book The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time written by Athanasios Orphanides and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Measurement of the Output Gap by : Pierre St.-Amant
Download or read book Measurement of the Output Gap written by Pierre St.-Amant and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses some methodologies for estimating potential output and the output gap that have recently been studied at the Bank of Canada. The assumptions and econometric techniques used by the different methodologies are discussed in turn, and applications to Canadian data are presented. The first group of methods considered are those that simply use some implicit or explicit assumptions about the dynamics of real output to identify the output gap, including the Hodrick and Prescott filter for identifying the cyclical component of output. The second group consists of approaches that combine their assumptions with information from assumed or structural relationships between the output gap and other economic variables. The third class of methods uses multivariate rather than univariate dynamic relationships, often in combination with structural relationships from economic theory, to estimate output gap as a particular transitory component of real output.
Book Synopsis The (un)reliability of Real-time Output Gap Estimates with Revised Data by : Onur Ince
Download or read book The (un)reliability of Real-time Output Gap Estimates with Revised Data written by Onur Ince and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Dismiss the Gap? written by Lise Pichette and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time? by : Mr.Jiaqian Chen
Download or read book Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time? written by Mr.Jiaqian Chen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-07 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than the usual filtering techniques. It also produces smaller out-of-sample forecast errors for inflation. At the same time, however, our results suggest caution in basing policy decisions on output gap estimates.
Book Synopsis A Simple Multivariate Filter for Estimating Potential Output by : Patrick Blagrave
Download or read book A Simple Multivariate Filter for Estimating Potential Output written by Patrick Blagrave and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-04-07 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Estimates of potential output are an important ingredient of structured forecasting and policy analysis. Using information on consensus forecasts, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Benes and others (2010). Although the estimates in real time are more robust relative to those of naïve statistical filters, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates. The paper presents estimates for 16 countries and provides an example of how the filtered estimates at the end of the sample period can be improved with additional information.
Book Synopsis Estimates of Canada's Potential GDP and Output Gap by : Russell A. Barnett
Download or read book Estimates of Canada's Potential GDP and Output Gap written by Russell A. Barnett and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 10 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Document de Travail written by and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy by : Ali Alichi
Download or read book Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy written by Ali Alichi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-06 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Estimates of potential output and the neutral short-term interest rate play important roles in policy making. However, such estimates are associated with significant uncertainty and subject to significant revisions. This paper extends the structural multivariate filter methodology by adding a monetary policy block, which allows estimating the neutral rate of interest for the U.S. economy. The addition of the monetary policy block further improves the reliability of the structural multivariate filter.
Book Synopsis Output Gaps in Real Time by : David Gruen
Download or read book Output Gaps in Real Time written by David Gruen and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The output gap is of central interest to policymakers. Being unobservable, however, its estimation is prone to error, particularly in real time. Errors result from revisions to the data and unavoidable end-point problems associated with the econometric techniques used to estimate it. This is the first study of the seriousness of these problems for Australia. Over a 28-year period, we obtain real-time output-gap estimates which are unbiased and highly correlated with final estimates derived with the latest data and the benefit of hindsight. We conclude that reasonably reliable output gap estimates can be obtained in real time.
Book Synopsis What Can Earnings Calls Tell Us about the Output Gap and Inflation in Canada? by : Marc-André Gosselin
Download or read book What Can Earnings Calls Tell Us about the Output Gap and Inflation in Canada? written by Marc-André Gosselin and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We construct new indicators of the imbalance between demand and supply for the Canadian economy by using natural language processing techniques to analyze earnings calls of publicly listed firms. The results show that the text-based indicators are highly correlated with official inflation data and estimates of the output gap and improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts. This suggests that these indicators could help central banks foresee inflationary pressures in the economy. Our examination of other topics in earnings calls, such as supply chain disruptions and capacity constraints, points to the potential benefits of using textual data to quickly draw insights on a range of relevant topics. We conclude that text-based measures of economic slack should be included in central banks' monitoring and forecasting toolkits.
Book Synopsis A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap [electronic Resource] by : Bank of Canada
Download or read book A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap [electronic Resource] written by Bank of Canada and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe? by : Mr.Alvar Kangur
Download or read book How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe? written by Mr.Alvar Kangur and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-09-20 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the properties of the IMF-WEO estimates of real-time output gaps for countries in the euro area as well as the determinants of their revisions over 1994-2017. The analysis shows that staff typically saw economies as operating below their potential. In real time, output gaps tend to have large and negative averages that are largely revised away in later vintages. Most of the mis-measurement in real time can be explained by the difficulty in predicting recessions and by overestimation of the economy’s potential capacity. We also find, in line with earlier literature, that real-time output gaps are not useful for predicting inflation. In addition, countries where slack (and potential growth) is overestimated to a larger extent primary fiscal balances tend to be lower and public debt ratios are higher and increase faster than projected. Previous research suggests that national authorities’ real-time output gaps suffer from a similar bias. To the extent these estimates play a role in calibrating fiscal policy, over-optimism about long-term growth could contribute to excessive deficits and debt buildup.
Book Synopsis Structural Balance Targeting and Output Gap Uncertainty by : Eugen Tereanu
Download or read book Structural Balance Targeting and Output Gap Uncertainty written by Eugen Tereanu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-06-13 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Potential output estimation plays a crucial role in conducting fiscal policy based on structural balances. Difficulties in estimating potential output could lead to an erroneous policy stance with a consequent impact on growth. This paper analyzes historical data on revisions of actual and potential growth in the European Union and the implication of these revisions for the measurement of fiscal effort using the cyclically-adjusted primary balance (CAPB). It finds that revisions in output gap estimates were large, at almost 11⁄2 percent of potential GDP on average. Revisions in potential GDP also contributed significantly to revisions in the estimated CAPB, especially during the crisis years. Given these findings and historical correlations, it proposes an indicative rule of thumb for reducing errors in the measurement of fiscal effort by factoring in that about 30 percent of revisions in actual growth capture changes in potential growth. In other words, the standard advice of “letting automatic stabilizers operate fully” in response to a positive/negative growth shocks likely implies a strengthening/weakening of the structural position.
Book Synopsis An Alternative Estimate of Canadian Potential Output by : Lise Pichette
Download or read book An Alternative Estimate of Canadian Potential Output written by Lise Pichette and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 13 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "In this paper, we extend the state-space methodology proposed by Blagrave et al. (2015) and decompose Canadian potential output into trend labour productivity and trend labour input. As in Blagrave et al. (2015), we include output growth and inflation expectations from consensus forecasts to help refine our estimates. Our alternative model, which we call the multivariate state-space framework (MSSF), adds to the Bank's existing set of tools for estimating potential output and the output gap in Canada. We find that while the MSSF shares similar dynamics to the main approaches used by the Bank, it also indicates that the economy experienced greater excess supply in both the 1990 and 2008 recessions than the Bank's other tools would suggest. Finally, the MSSF estimates that the Canadian economy has been operating close to capacity since the end of 2017"--Abstract.
Book Synopsis What Is in Your Output Gap? Unified Framework & Decomposition into Observables by : Michal Andrle
Download or read book What Is in Your Output Gap? Unified Framework & Decomposition into Observables written by Michal Andrle and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-05-10 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses several popular methods to estimate the ‘output gap’. It provides a unified, natural concept for the analysis, and demonstrates how to decompose the output gap into contributions of observed data on output, inflation, unemployment, and other variables. A simple bar-chart of contributing factors, in the case of multi-variable methods, sharpens the intuition behind the estimates and ultimately shows ‘what is in your output gap.’ The paper demonstrates how to interpret effects of data revisions and new data releases for output gap estimates (news effects) and how to obtain more insight into real-time properties of estimators.
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