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The Measurement Of Subjective Probability
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Book Synopsis The Measurement of Subjective Probability by : Edward J. R. Elliott
Download or read book The Measurement of Subjective Probability written by Edward J. R. Elliott and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2024-05-02 with total page 105 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Beliefs come in degrees, and we often represent those degrees with numbers. We might say, for example, that we are 90% confident in the truth of some scientific hypothesis, or only 30% confident in the success of some risky endeavour. But what do these numbers mean? What, in other words, is the underlying psychological reality to which the numbers correspond? And what constitutes a meaningful difference between numerically distinct representations of belief? In this Element, we discuss the main approaches to the measurement of belief. These fall into two broad categories-epistemic and decision-theoretic-with divergent foundations in the theory of measurement. Epistemic approaches explain the measurement of belief by appeal to relations between belief states themselves, whereas decision-theoretic approaches appeal to relations between beliefs and desires in the production of choice and preferences.
Book Synopsis Measurement of Subjective Probability Distributions by : Masanao Toda
Download or read book Measurement of Subjective Probability Distributions written by Masanao Toda and published by . This book was released on 1963 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Five experimental one-person games are derived which promise both valid and efficient measure ment of discrete and continuous subjective proba bility distributions. All of these games possess the characteristic that it is to the disadvantage of the decision maker to respond in a manner in consistent with his actual expectations. The measurement procedures are efficient and rapid. It appears that some of the procedures could be used to measure continuously changing subjective probabilities. (Author).
Book Synopsis Studies in Subjective Probability by : Henry Ely Kyburg
Download or read book Studies in Subjective Probability written by Henry Ely Kyburg and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Truth and probability; Foresight: its logical laws, its subjective sources; The bases of probability; Subjective probability as the measure of a non-measurable set; The elicitation of personal probabilities; Probability: beware of falsifications; Probable knowledge.
Book Synopsis The Subjective Probability Structure of Concepts and the Measurement of Meaning by : Jia-Jeou Peng
Download or read book The Subjective Probability Structure of Concepts and the Measurement of Meaning written by Jia-Jeou Peng and published by . This book was released on 1967 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Measurement of Subjective Probability Distribution by : Masanao Toda
Download or read book Measurement of Subjective Probability Distribution written by Masanao Toda and published by . This book was released on 1963 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Probability and Bayesian Modeling by : Jim Albert
Download or read book Probability and Bayesian Modeling written by Jim Albert and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-12-06 with total page 511 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Probability and Bayesian Modeling is an introduction to probability and Bayesian thinking for undergraduate students with a calculus background. The first part of the book provides a broad view of probability including foundations, conditional probability, discrete and continuous distributions, and joint distributions. Statistical inference is presented completely from a Bayesian perspective. The text introduces inference and prediction for a single proportion and a single mean from Normal sampling. After fundamentals of Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms are introduced, Bayesian inference is described for hierarchical and regression models including logistic regression. The book presents several case studies motivated by some historical Bayesian studies and the authors’ research. This text reflects modern Bayesian statistical practice. Simulation is introduced in all the probability chapters and extensively used in the Bayesian material to simulate from the posterior and predictive distributions. One chapter describes the basic tenets of Metropolis and Gibbs sampling algorithms; however several chapters introduce the fundamentals of Bayesian inference for conjugate priors to deepen understanding. Strategies for constructing prior distributions are described in situations when one has substantial prior information and for cases where one has weak prior knowledge. One chapter introduces hierarchical Bayesian modeling as a practical way of combining data from different groups. There is an extensive discussion of Bayesian regression models including the construction of informative priors, inference about functions of the parameters of interest, prediction, and model selection. The text uses JAGS (Just Another Gibbs Sampler) as a general-purpose computational method for simulating from posterior distributions for a variety of Bayesian models. An R package ProbBayes is available containing all of the book datasets and special functions for illustrating concepts from the book. A complete solutions manual is available for instructors who adopt the book in the Additional Resources section.
Download or read book Probability written by Anthony O Hagan and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-01 with total page 303 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is an elementary and practical introduction to probability theory. It differs from other introductory texts in two important respects. First, the per sonal (or subjective) view of probability is adopted throughout. Second, emphasis is placed on how values are assigned to probabilities in practice, i.e. the measurement of probabilities. The personal approach to probability is in many ways more natural than other current formulations, and can also provide a broader view of the subject. It thus has a unifying effect. It has also assumed great importance recently because of the growth of Bayesian Statistics. Personal probability is essential for modern Bayesian methods, and it can be difficult for students who have learnt a different view of probability to adapt to Bayesian thinking. This book has been produced in response to that difficulty, to present a thorough introduction to probability from scratch, and entirely in the personal framework.
Book Synopsis Subjective Probability: the Only Kind Possible by : Paolo Manca
Download or read book Subjective Probability: the Only Kind Possible written by Paolo Manca and published by goWare. This book was released on 2017-07-06 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the context of a non-deterministic view of the world, probability is a number which reflects the degree of confidence someone has that a given statement or event is true, based on the information they have. Probability and probability calculus, on the other hand, are essential tools for those who wish to recognise uncertainty and manage it responsibly. This presentation of subjective probability (the only one possible) will enable even those who are not experts to acquire the correct knowledge of an instrument which is essential and necessary for dealing with the world around us. The text takes only one hour to read, but it will help you to avoid many mistakes and enable you to understand the origin of those you might have made in the past. The reader will also be able to appreciate many funny examples and paradoxes such as this one: statistics tell us that 20% of motorway car accidents are caused by drivers with high blood alcohol levels. It can then be derived that 80% of accidents are caused by sober drivers. Therefore, we should supply alcohol to those who drive on motorways!
Book Synopsis Some Experiments and Related Theory on the Measurement of Utility and Subjective Probability by : Stanford University. Applied Mathematics and Statistics Laboratory
Download or read book Some Experiments and Related Theory on the Measurement of Utility and Subjective Probability written by Stanford University. Applied Mathematics and Statistics Laboratory and published by . This book was released on 1955 with total page 97 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Subjective Probability by : Richard Jeffrey
Download or read book Subjective Probability written by Richard Jeffrey and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2004-04-12 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sample Text
Book Synopsis Degrees of Belief by : Steven G. Vick
Download or read book Degrees of Belief written by Steven G. Vick and published by ASCE Publications. This book was released on 2002-01-01 with total page 469 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Observing at a risk analysis conference for civil engineers that participants did not share a common language of probability, Vick, a consultant and geotechnic engineer, set out to not only examine why, but to also bridge the gap. He reexamines three elements at the core of engineering the concepts
Book Synopsis Subjective Probability and Statistical Practice by : Leonard Jimmie Savage
Download or read book Subjective Probability and Statistical Practice written by Leonard Jimmie Savage and published by . This book was released on 1959 with total page 102 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis OECD Guidelines on Measuring Subjective Well-being by : OECD
Download or read book OECD Guidelines on Measuring Subjective Well-being written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2013-03-20 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These Guidelines represent the first attempt to provide international recommendations on collecting, publishing, and analysing subjective well-being data.
Book Synopsis Subjective Probability by : George Wright
Download or read book Subjective Probability written by George Wright and published by . This book was released on 1994-11 with total page 608 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This overview of subjective probability ranges from discussion of the philosophy of axiom systems through studies in the psychological laboratory to the real world of business decision-making.
Book Synopsis The Reliability of Subjective Probabilities by : Don N. Kleinmuntz
Download or read book The Reliability of Subjective Probabilities written by Don N. Kleinmuntz and published by Forgotten Books. This book was released on 2018-02-06 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Excerpt from The Reliability of Subjective Probabilities: Obtained Through Decomposition The remainder of the paper is organized as follows: Section 2 describes the decomposition approach. Section 3 describes the psychometric model that is used to evaluate the elicitations. Section 4 utilizes that model to derive results on the relative reliability of decomposition and direct assessment. Section 5 extends those results while relaxing certain restrictive assumptions of the original model. Finally, section 6 discusses the implications of these results for the practice of probability encoding. About the Publisher Forgotten Books publishes hundreds of thousands of rare and classic books. Find more at www.forgottenbooks.com This book is a reproduction of an important historical work. Forgotten Books uses state-of-the-art technology to digitally reconstruct the work, preserving the original format whilst repairing imperfections present in the aged copy. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in our edition. We do, however, repair the vast majority of imperfections successfully; any imperfections that remain are intentionally left to preserve the state of such historical works.
Book Synopsis Advances in Comparative Survey Methods by : Timothy P. Johnson
Download or read book Advances in Comparative Survey Methods written by Timothy P. Johnson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2018-09-21 with total page 907 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Covers the latest methodologies and research on international comparative surveys with contributions from noted experts in the field Advances in Comparative Survey Methodology examines the most recent advances in methodology and operations as well as the technical developments in international survey research. With contributions from a panel of international experts, the text includes information on the use of Big Data in concert with survey data, collecting biomarkers, the human subject regulatory environment, innovations in data collection methodology and sampling techniques, use of paradata across the survey lifecycle, metadata standards for dissemination, and new analytical techniques. This important resource: Contains contributions from key experts in their respective fields of study from around the globe Highlights innovative approaches in resource poor settings, and innovative approaches to combining survey and other data Includes material that is organized within the total survey error framework Presents extensive and up-to-date references throughout the book Written for students and academic survey researchers and market researchers engaged in comparative projects, this text represents a unique collaboration that features the latest methodologies and research on global comparative surveys.
Book Synopsis Operational Subjective Statistical Methods by : Frank Lad
Download or read book Operational Subjective Statistical Methods written by Frank Lad and published by Wiley-Interscience. This book was released on 1996-09-27 with total page 516 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The mathematical implications of personal beliefs and values in science and commerce Amid a worldwide resurgence of interest in subjectivist statistical method, this book offers a fresh look at the role of personal judgments in statistical analysis. Frank Lad demonstrates how philosophical attention to meaning provides a sensible assessment of the prospects and procedures of empirical inferential learning. Operational Subjective Statistical Methods offers a systematic investigation of Bruno de Finetti's theory of probability and logic of uncertainty, which recognizes probability as the measure of personal uncertainty at the heart of its mathematical presentation. It identifies de Finetti's "fundamental theorem of coherent provision" as the unifying structure of probabilistic logic, and highlights the judgment of exchangeability rather than causal independence as the key probabilistic component of statistical inference. Broad in scope, yet firmly grounded in mathematical detail, this text/reference Invites readers to address the subjective personalist meaning of probability as motivating the mathematical construction Contains numerous examples and problems, including computing problems using Matlab, assuming no background in Matlab Explains how to use the material in three distinct sequential courses in math and statistics, as well as in courses at the graduate level in applied fields Provides an introductory basis for understanding more complex structures of statistical analysis Complete with fifty illustrations, Operational Subjective Statistical Methods makes an intriguing discipline accessible to professionals, students, and the interested general reader. It contains a wealth of teaching and research material, and offers profound insight into the relationship between philosophy, faith, and scientific method.
