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The Macroeconomic Determinants Of Commodity Prices
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Book Synopsis The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices by : Mr.Eduardo Borensztein
Download or read book The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices written by Mr.Eduardo Borensztein and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1994-01-01 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The “traditional structural approach” to the determination of real commodity prices has relied exclusively on demand factors as the fundamentals that explain the behavior of commodity prices. This framework, however, has been unable to explain the marked and sustained weakness in commodity prices during the 1980s and 1990s. This paper extends that framework in two important directions: First, it incorporates commodity supply in the analysis, capturing the impact on prices of the sharp increase in commodity exports of developing countries during the debt crisis of the 1980s. Second, we take a broader view of “world” demand that extends beyond the industrial countries and includes output developments in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union (FSU). The empirical results support these extensions, as both the fit of the model improves substantially and, more importantly, its ability to forecast increases markedly.
Book Synopsis The macroeconomic determinants of commodity prices by : Fondo Monetario Internacional
Download or read book The macroeconomic determinants of commodity prices written by Fondo Monetario Internacional and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Primary Commodity Prices and Macroeconomic Variables by : Theodosios B. Palaskas
Download or read book Primary Commodity Prices and Macroeconomic Variables written by Theodosios B. Palaskas and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1989 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Comovement in Commodity Prices by : Mr.Ron Alquist
Download or read book The Comovement in Commodity Prices written by Mr.Ron Alquist and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-06-05 with total page 63 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We present a simple macroeconomic model with a continuum of primary commodities used in the production of the final good, such that the real prices of commodities have a factor structure. One factor captures the combined contribution of all aggregate shocks which have no direct effects on commodity markets other than through general equilibrium effects on output, while other factors represent direct commodity shocks. Thus, the factor structure provides a decomposition of underlying structural shocks. The theory also provides guidance on how empirical factors can be rotated to identify the structural factors. We apply factor analysis and the identification conditions implied by the model to a cross-section of real non-energy commodity prices. The theoretical restrictions implied by the model are consistent with the data and thus yield a structural interpretation of the common factors in commodity prices. The analysis suggests that commodity-related shocks have generally played a limited role in global business cycle fluctuations.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Determinants of World Agricultural Commodity Prices by : Motoichiro Kitazawa
Download or read book Macroeconomic Determinants of World Agricultural Commodity Prices written by Motoichiro Kitazawa and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Handbook of Commodity Investing by : Frank J. Fabozzi
Download or read book The Handbook of Commodity Investing written by Frank J. Fabozzi and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-06-02 with total page 986 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Filled with a comprehensive collection of information from experts in the commodity investment industry, this detailed guide shows readers how to successfully incorporate commodities into their portfolios. Created with both the professional and individual investor in mind, The Handbook of Commodity Investments covers a wide range of issues, including the risk and return of commodities, diversification benefits, risk management, macroeconomic determinants of commodity investments, and commodity trading advisors. Starting with the basics of commodity investments and moving to more complex topics, such as performance measurement, asset pricing, and value at risk, The Handbook of Commodity Investments is a reliable resource for anyone who needs to understand this dynamic market.
Book Synopsis Commodity Terms of Trade by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Commodity Terms of Trade written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-09-01 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We compile a historical dataset covering nearly 40 years of booms and busts in the commodity terms of trade of over 150 countries. We discuss the characteristics of these events and their effects on macroeconomic performance and, in particular, compare the most recent commodity-price cycle with its historical precedents.
Book Synopsis The Excess Co-movement of Commodity Prices by : Robert S. Pindyck
Download or read book The Excess Co-movement of Commodity Prices written by Robert S. Pindyck and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper tests and confirms the existence of a puzzling phenomenon - the prices of largely unrelated raw commodities have a persistent tendency to move together. We show that this comovement of prices is well in excess of anything that can be explained by the common effects of past, current, or expected future values of macroeconomic variables such as inflation, industrial production, interest rates, and exchange rates. These results are a rejection of the standard competitive model of commodity price formation with storage.
Book Synopsis Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries by : Mr.Rabah Arezki
Download or read book Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-10-24 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the years following the global financial crisis, many low-income countries experienced rapid recovery and strong economic growth. However, many are now facing enormous difficulties because of rapidly rising food and fuel prices, with the threat of millions of people being pushed into poverty around the globe. The risk of continued food price volatility is a systemic challenge, and a failure in one country has been shown to have a profound impact on entire regions. This volume addresses the challenges of commodity price volatility for low-income countries and explores some macroeconomic policy options for responding to commodity price shocks. The book then looks at inclusive growth policies to address inequality in commodity-exporting countries, particularly natural resource rich countries. Perspectives from the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, emerging Asia, and Mexico are presented and, finally, the role of the international donor community is examined. This volume is a must read for policymakers everywhere, from those in advanced, donor countries to those in countries with the poorest and most vulnerable populations.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Aspects of Commodity Price Dynamics by : Md Rafayet Alam
Download or read book Macroeconomic Aspects of Commodity Price Dynamics written by Md Rafayet Alam and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fluctuation in commodity prices is a significant and timely issue to be studied. My first chapter examines the impact of monetary policy and other macroeconomic shocks on the dynamics of agricultural commodity prices. The major contributions of this study are twofold. First, unlike other studies that use indexes, this study analyzes the commodities individually, affording the inclusion of commodity-specific fundamentals such as the level of inventory – an important determinant of commodity price – in a structural VAR framework. Second, it exploits a rich dataset of agricultural commodity prices which includes commodities that are usually overlooked in the literature, and extracts a common factor using the dynamic factor model to understand the extent of co-movement of the prices and to gauge the extent to which macroeconomic shocks drive the ‘co-movement’ in a factor-augmented VAR (FAVAR) framework. The findings show that monetary policy, global economic conditions and the US dollar exchange rates play an important role in the dynamics of agricultural commodity prices. My second chapter examines the role played by Wal-Mart in price convergence among US cities. Despite the fact that market structure is an important determinant of price convergence and that US retail architecture has been changed over the past two decades by the expansion of big box stores and supercenters, the role played by such rapidly-expanding ‘big-box’ chain-stores like Wal-Mart in price convergence is completely over-looked in the literature. The possible symmetry in costs and mark-up among Wal-Mart stores, and their influence over the city level prices motivate us to test if their presence helps price convergence among US cities. After controlling for distance, local costs such as wage and rent, and city and time specific fixed effects this study finds that prices are significantly closer in two cities if they have Wal-Mart than if none or only one of them has Wal-Mart. Though the results are mostly robust to the analysis using disaggregate price data and sub-samples, they are more pronounced for grocery items than non-grocery items, within high income cities than low income cities. Moreover, our regional analysis uncovers the regional variations in the effect of Wal-Mart on price convergence, and Wal-Mart’s more prominent role in inter-region rather than intra-region price convergence. Since the presence of Wal-Mart accelerates the rate of price convergence and thus reduces the potential for misallocation of resources, our results suggest that the existence of a positive welfare impact of Wal-Mart cannot be overruled. My third chapter uses county level data to see the effect of Wal-Mart on local economic activities and revenue in Florida. The OLS estimation shows that the presence of Wal-Mart significantly increases total retail sales and decreases sales tax rate, but have no significant effect on total taxable retail sales and total revenue from sales tax. The instrumental variable (IV) estimation shows that presence of Wal-Mart significantly decreases sales tax rate but has no significant effect on total retail sales, total taxable retail sales and total revenue from sales tax. Thus, according to our analysis, Wal-Mart does not necessarily increase local economic activities and tax revenue. However, interestingly, Wal-Mart is found to play an important role in decreasing local sales-tax rate.
Book Synopsis The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Commodity Prices by : Lin Gao
Download or read book The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Commodity Prices written by Lin Gao and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodity prices are subject to macroeconomic influences both in the long run and short run. A detailed theoretical explanation of their properties in affecting commodity prices is provided at the beginning. By focusing on the general commodity price series CRB index and its metals subindex in the empirical analysis, we find that commodity prices and other macroeconomic factors such as industrial production, oil price, and exchange rates are driven by one common trend, i.e. they are cointegrated. With the aid of a Structural VAR model, we detect contradictory results of real interest rates to the theory and confirm the role of effective exchange rates in impacting commodity prices. At the same time, new findings regarding the roles of these variables after 2000 come to light, which correspond to our assumption that commodity prices are more closely related to macroeconomic variables in the price volatile times.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Influences and the Variability of the Commodity Futures Basis by : Warren Bernard Bailey
Download or read book Macroeconomic Influences and the Variability of the Commodity Futures Basis written by Warren Bernard Bailey and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility and Its Macroeconomic Determinants by :
Download or read book Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility and Its Macroeconomic Determinants written by and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Commodity Prices and Markets by : Takatoshi Ito
Download or read book Commodity Prices and Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2011-03 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.
Book Synopsis Determinants of Volatile Commodity Prices by : Vijay Kumar Varadi
Download or read book Determinants of Volatile Commodity Prices written by Vijay Kumar Varadi and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent hikes and fluctuations in global commodity prices in 2007-11 have raised many issues. The present analysis is an attempted advancement to identify appropriate associations to volatile commodity prices by advancing existing analysis of S&P GSCI commodity spot price index is used as a proxy for global commodity prices for the period June-1996 to June-2011 monthly time series. In this paper, we have made an attempt to identify more determine factors for recent hike and fluctuations in global commodity prices, including, monetary policies, macro economic factors, financialization in commodity markets and impact of various other commodity prices. Empirical evidence is that there is a negative relationship existing with monetary policy, mixed evidence with macro economic indicators and positive impact of financialization of commodity markets. And various commodities such as crude oil and non-energy commodities are having significant effect on volatile commodity prices.
Book Synopsis Unemployment and Primary Commodity Prices by : Annalisa Cristini
Download or read book Unemployment and Primary Commodity Prices written by Annalisa Cristini and published by Palgrave Macmillan. This book was released on 1999 with total page 182 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The book discusses the links between primary commodity prices and the OECD rate of unemployment. A descriptive account of the main facts and a VAR analysis help define the essential features of the macroeconomic model which constitutes the core of the book. The model simultaneously determines the industrialized countries' economic activity, primary commodity prices, the world real interest rate and LDC external debt: thereby it comprehensively accounts both for the impact of primary prices on the OECD economy as well as for the feedback running from the primary commodity and other global markets, to the OECD economy. Dynamic simulations of oil price shocks elucidate the propagation mechanism of the system and the specific contribution played by each factor in transmitting the shock. Finally the model throws further light, both from the theoretical and empirical point of view, on issues like hysteresis in the rate of unemployment, the NAIRU and the low frequency evolution of some relevant world wide macro-economic variables."--BOOK JACKET.Title Summary field provided by Blackwell North America, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Book Synopsis Methods to Analyse Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility by : Isabelle Piot-Lepetit
Download or read book Methods to Analyse Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility written by Isabelle Piot-Lepetit and published by Springer. This book was released on 2011-06-09 with total page 231 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines the issue of price volatility in agricultural commodities markets and how this phenomenon has evolved in recent years. The factors underlying the price spike of 2007-08 appear to be global and macroeconomic in nature, including the rapid growth in demand by developing countries, the international financial crisis, and exchange rate movements. Some of these factors are new, appearing as influences on price volatility only in the last decade. Although volatility has always been a feature of agricultural commodity markets, the evidence suggests that volatility has increased in certain commodity markets. A growing problem is that agricultural price shocks and volatility disrupt agricultural markets, economic incentives and incomes. With increased globalization and integration of financial and energy markets with agricultural commodity markets, the relationships between markets are expanding and becoming more complex. When a crisis such as a regional drought, food safety scare or a financial crisis hits a particular market, policy-makers often do not know the extent to which it will impact on other markets and affect producer, consumer and trader decisions. Including contributions from experts at the World Bank, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the USDA, and the European Commission, the research developed throughout the chapters of this book is based on current methodologies that can be used to analyze price volatility and provide directions for understanding this volatility and the development of new agricultural policies. The book highlights the challenges facing policy makers in dealing with the changing nature of agricultural commodities markets, and offers recommendations for anticipating price movements and managing their consequences. It will be a practical guide for both present and future policy-makers in deciding on potential price-stabilizing interventions, and will also serve as a useful resource for researchers and students in agricultural economics.
