The Information Content Of Implied Skewness And Kurtosis Changes Prior To Earnings Announcements For Stock And Option Returns

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The Information Content of Implied Skewness and Kurtosis Changes Prior to Earnings Announcements for Stock and Option Returns

Author : Dean Diavatopoulos
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 36 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis The Information Content of Implied Skewness and Kurtosis Changes Prior to Earnings Announcements for Stock and Option Returns by : Dean Diavatopoulos

Download or read book The Information Content of Implied Skewness and Kurtosis Changes Prior to Earnings Announcements for Stock and Option Returns written by Dean Diavatopoulos and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We explore whether changes in stock return skewness and kurtosis, as implied in option prices preceding earnings announcements, provide information about subsequent stock and option returns through the announcement. We demonstrate that the change in skewness and kurtosis can be related to changing jump risk premiums, where jump risk can be associated with the uncertainty around the direction and size of the stock price response to the earnings announcement. As such, implied skewness (kurtosis) should capture the direction (magnitude) of a stock jump if option prices change as a result of changing jump risk size and intensity. Examining changes in implied skewness and kurtosis preceding over 74,000 earnings announcements for over 4700 firms, we find that both moments have strong predictive power for future stock returns, even after controlling for implied volatility. Additionally, changes in both moments predict call returns, while put return predictability is primarily linked to skewness. Thus, prior to earnings announcements, option prices contain information about future security returns.

The Oxford Handbook of Quantitative Asset Management

Author : Bernd Scherer
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0199553432
Total Pages : 530 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (995 download)

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Book Synopsis The Oxford Handbook of Quantitative Asset Management by : Bernd Scherer

Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Quantitative Asset Management written by Bernd Scherer and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2012 with total page 530 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores the current state of the art in quantitative investment management across seven key areas. Chapters by academics and practitioners working in leading investment management organizations bring together major theoretical and practical aspects of the field.

Handbook Of Financial Econometrics, Mathematics, Statistics, And Machine Learning (In 4 Volumes)

Author : Cheng Few Lee
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 9811202400
Total Pages : 5053 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (112 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook Of Financial Econometrics, Mathematics, Statistics, And Machine Learning (In 4 Volumes) by : Cheng Few Lee

Download or read book Handbook Of Financial Econometrics, Mathematics, Statistics, And Machine Learning (In 4 Volumes) written by Cheng Few Lee and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2020-07-30 with total page 5053 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This four-volume handbook covers important concepts and tools used in the fields of financial econometrics, mathematics, statistics, and machine learning. Econometric methods have been applied in asset pricing, corporate finance, international finance, options and futures, risk management, and in stress testing for financial institutions. This handbook discusses a variety of econometric methods, including single equation multiple regression, simultaneous equation regression, and panel data analysis, among others. It also covers statistical distributions, such as the binomial and log normal distributions, in light of their applications to portfolio theory and asset management in addition to their use in research regarding options and futures contracts.In both theory and methodology, we need to rely upon mathematics, which includes linear algebra, geometry, differential equations, Stochastic differential equation (Ito calculus), optimization, constrained optimization, and others. These forms of mathematics have been used to derive capital market line, security market line (capital asset pricing model), option pricing model, portfolio analysis, and others.In recent times, an increased importance has been given to computer technology in financial research. Different computer languages and programming techniques are important tools for empirical research in finance. Hence, simulation, machine learning, big data, and financial payments are explored in this handbook.Led by Distinguished Professor Cheng Few Lee from Rutgers University, this multi-volume work integrates theoretical, methodological, and practical issues based on his years of academic and industry experience.

Handbook of Economic Forecasting

Author : Graham Elliott
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0444627413
Total Pages : 1386 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (446 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Economic Forecasting by : Graham Elliott

Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-10-24 with total page 1386 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. - Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications - Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications - Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics

The Information Content of Implied Volatility, Skewness and Kurtosis

Author : Patrick Navatte
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis The Information Content of Implied Volatility, Skewness and Kurtosis by : Patrick Navatte

Download or read book The Information Content of Implied Volatility, Skewness and Kurtosis written by Patrick Navatte and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The implied standard deviation is widely believed to be the best available forecast of the volatility of the returns over the remaining contract life (Jorion 1995). In this paper, we generalize this result to the higher moments of the distribution (Skewness and Kurtosis) based on a Gram-Charlier series expansion of the normal distribution (Corrado and Su 1996) using long term CAC 40 option prices contract, named PXL. First, we find that implied first moments contain a substantial amount of information for realized future moments of CAC 40 returns although this amount is decreasing with respect to the moment's order. Second, we find that different shapes of the volatility smile are consistent with different distributions of the underlying returns. Based on these results, we also observe that including other implied moments significantly improve the out-of-sample pricing performance of the Black-Scholes (1973) model.

Rational Machines and Artificial Intelligence

Author : Tshilidzi Marwala
Publisher : Academic Press
ISBN 13 : 0128209445
Total Pages : 272 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (282 download)

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Book Synopsis Rational Machines and Artificial Intelligence by : Tshilidzi Marwala

Download or read book Rational Machines and Artificial Intelligence written by Tshilidzi Marwala and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2021-03-31 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Intelligent machines are populating our social, economic and political spaces. These intelligent machines are powered by Artificial Intelligence technologies such as deep learning. They are used in decision making. One element of decision making is the issue of rationality. Regulations such as the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) require that decisions that are made by these intelligent machines are explainable. Rational Machines and Artificial Intelligence proposes that explainable decisions are good but the explanation must be rational to prevent these decisions from being challenged. Noted author Tshilidzi Marwala studies the concept of machine rationality and compares this to the rationality bounds prescribed by Nobel Laureate Herbert Simon and rationality bounds derived from the work of Nobel Laureates Richard Thaler and Daniel Kahneman. Rational Machines and Artificial Intelligence describes why machine rationality is flexibly bounded due to advances in technology. This effectively means that optimally designed machines are more rational than human beings. Readers will also learn whether machine rationality can be quantified and identify how this can be achieved. Furthermore, the author discusses whether machine rationality is subjective. Finally, the author examines whether a population of intelligent machines collectively make more rational decisions than individual machines. Examples in biomedical engineering, social sciences and the financial sectors are used to illustrate these concepts. Provides an introduction to the key questions and challenges surrounding Rational Machines, including, When do we rely on decisions made by intelligent machines? What do decisions made by intelligent machines mean? Are these decisions rational or fair? Can we quantify these decisions? and Is rationality subjective? Introduces for the first time the concept of rational opportunity costs and the concept of flexibly bounded rationality as a rationality of intelligent machines and the implications of these issues on the reliability of machine decisions Includes coverage of Rational Counterfactuals, group versus individual rationality, and rational markets Discusses the application of Moore’s Law and advancements in Artificial Intelligence, as well as developments in the area of data acquisition and analysis technologies and how they affect the boundaries of intelligent machine rationality

Handbook Of Machine Learning - Volume 1: Foundation Of Artificial Intelligence

Author : Tshilidzi Marwala
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 9813271248
Total Pages : 329 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (132 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook Of Machine Learning - Volume 1: Foundation Of Artificial Intelligence by : Tshilidzi Marwala

Download or read book Handbook Of Machine Learning - Volume 1: Foundation Of Artificial Intelligence written by Tshilidzi Marwala and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2018-10-22 with total page 329 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a comprehensive book on the theories of artificial intelligence with an emphasis on their applications. It combines fuzzy logic and neural networks, as well as hidden Markov models and genetic algorithm, describes advancements and applications of these machine learning techniques and describes the problem of causality. This book should serves as a useful reference for practitioners in artificial intelligence.

Economic Modeling Using Artificial Intelligence Methods

Author : Tshilidzi Marwala
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1447150104
Total Pages : 271 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (471 download)

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Book Synopsis Economic Modeling Using Artificial Intelligence Methods by : Tshilidzi Marwala

Download or read book Economic Modeling Using Artificial Intelligence Methods written by Tshilidzi Marwala and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-04-02 with total page 271 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic Modeling Using Artificial Intelligence Methods examines the application of artificial intelligence methods to model economic data. Traditionally, economic modeling has been modeled in the linear domain where the principles of superposition are valid. The application of artificial intelligence for economic modeling allows for a flexible multi-order non-linear modeling. In addition, game theory has largely been applied in economic modeling. However, the inherent limitation of game theory when dealing with many player games encourages the use of multi-agent systems for modeling economic phenomena. The artificial intelligence techniques used to model economic data include: multi-layer perceptron neural networks radial basis functions support vector machines rough sets genetic algorithm particle swarm optimization simulated annealing multi-agent system incremental learning fuzzy networks Signal processing techniques are explored to analyze economic data, and these techniques are the time domain methods, time-frequency domain methods and fractals dimension approaches. Interesting economic problems such as causality versus correlation, simulating the stock market, modeling and controling inflation, option pricing, modeling economic growth as well as portfolio optimization are examined. The relationship between economic dependency and interstate conflict is explored, and knowledge on how economics is useful to foster peace – and vice versa – is investigated. Economic Modeling Using Artificial Intelligence Methods deals with the issue of causality in the non-linear domain and applies the automatic relevance determination, the evidence framework, Bayesian approach and Granger causality to understand causality and correlation. Economic Modeling Using Artificial Intelligence Methods makes an important contribution to the area of econometrics, and is a valuable source of reference for graduate students, researchers and financial practitioners.

The Drift of Implied Volatilities Before Earnings Announcements

Author : Natalie Benz
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (15 download)

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Book Synopsis The Drift of Implied Volatilities Before Earnings Announcements by : Natalie Benz

Download or read book The Drift of Implied Volatilities Before Earnings Announcements written by Natalie Benz and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This master's thesis provides a comprehensive analysis of the behavior and influences of the S&P stock composition on implied volatility during earnings announcements that cover the period from 1996 to 2015. While prior studies have found that implied volatility increases in the pre-event period before an announcement, this thesis shows that implied volatility increases as soon as the announcement day is included in the lifetime of an option. In a liquid market, where information is processed much faster, the expectation of increased volatility is included in the lifetime of an option earlier and prevents an actual short-term updrift from occurring. Such liquid markets also exhibit some small deviations of implied volatility in the pre-announcement period, with increased uncertainty of the outcome of earnings announcements and divergent analyst forecasts. Cross-section regressions further reveal that relative drifts of implied volatility during earnings announcements are significantly explained not only by macroeconomic factors but also by the number of open contracts and the attention paid by investors and analysts. In a time when the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) level is low and the spread between historical and implied volatility is high, overestimation of future volatility additionally leads to a stronger increase of drift.

Volatility Spread and the Stock Market Response to Earnings Announcements

Author : Qin Lei
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 43 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Volatility Spread and the Stock Market Response to Earnings Announcements by : Qin Lei

Download or read book Volatility Spread and the Stock Market Response to Earnings Announcements written by Qin Lei and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a broad sample of earnings announcements, we find that option call and put implied volatilities become increasingly misaligned as the earnings announcement dates (EAD) get closer. The percentage deviation between call and put implied volatilities increases monotonically in the one-month period leading up to the EAD. In addition, the direction of these deviations is consistent with the announcement returns of such earnings releases. More importantly, by adapting the earnings response coefficient (ERC) framework, we find that pre-earnings option trading actually increases rather than decreases the stock market response to the earnings announcements. In a cross section of earnings announcements, we find stronger stock market reaction from earnings announcements with greater abnormal implied volatility spread immediately before the EAD. By relating option volume to investor attention, we find higher pre-announcement option volume is associated with increased stock market response. Overall, our findings suggest that pre-earnings option trading helps alleviate the stock market under-reaction to earnings announcements and make the stock market response more complete.

The Information Content of Quarterly Earnings Data and the Market's Revision of Risk Predictions Implied in Options Prices

Author : David Chen Ming-Dau
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 146 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (695 download)

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Book Synopsis The Information Content of Quarterly Earnings Data and the Market's Revision of Risk Predictions Implied in Options Prices by : David Chen Ming-Dau

Download or read book The Information Content of Quarterly Earnings Data and the Market's Revision of Risk Predictions Implied in Options Prices written by David Chen Ming-Dau and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 146 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Informational Content of Implied Volatility Around Stock Splits

Author : Brandon Julio
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 53 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis The Informational Content of Implied Volatility Around Stock Splits by : Brandon Julio

Download or read book The Informational Content of Implied Volatility Around Stock Splits written by Brandon Julio and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Previous research has been mixed with respect to whether option implied volatility reflects market expectations about future realized volatility for the underlying asset. This paper uses a previously documented volatility increasing event, the stock split, to investigate the informational content in implied volatility around stock split announcements. We find that the time series profile of implied volatility around stock splits is consistent with the predictions of standard option pricing theory. Option market participants appear to revise their forecasts of future realized volatility permanently upward at the split announcement. In addition, we find that changes in implied volatility at the split announcement provide informative forecasts of changes in realized stock volatility at the ex-date. However, these forecasts are biased and inefficient as other known, firm-specific variables improve the forecasts of changes in realized volatility. The use of intra-daily realized volatility estimates rather than those based on daily observations significantly reduces the bias in predictive regressions.

Implied Volatility Functions

Author : Bernard Dumas
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (258 download)

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Book Synopsis Implied Volatility Functions by : Bernard Dumas

Download or read book Implied Volatility Functions written by Bernard Dumas and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: Black and Scholes (1973) implied volatilities tend to be systematically related to the option's exercise price and time to expiration. Derman and Kani (1994), Dupire (1994), and Rubinstein (1994) attribute this behavior to the fact that the Black-Scholes constant volatility assumption is violated in practice. These authors hypothesize that the volatility of the underlying asset's return is a deterministic function of the asset price and time and develop the deterministic volatility function (DVF) option valuation model, which has the potential of fitting the observed cross-section of option prices exactly. Using a sample of S & P 500 index options during the period June 1988 through December 1993, we evaluate the economic significance of the implied deterministic volatility function by examining the predictive and hedging performance of the DV option valuation model. We find that its performance is worse than that of an ad hoc Black-Scholes model with variable implied volatilities.

Options Markets

Author : John C. Cox
Publisher : Prentice Hall
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 518 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Options Markets by : John C. Cox

Download or read book Options Markets written by John C. Cox and published by Prentice Hall. This book was released on 1985 with total page 518 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Includes the first published detailed description of option exchange operations, the first published treatment using only elementary mathematics and the first step-by-step procedure for implementing the Black-Scholes formula in actual trading.

Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis

Author : Mr.Andreas A. Jobst
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475557531
Total Pages : 93 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis by : Mr.Andreas A. Jobst

Download or read book Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis written by Mr.Andreas A. Jobst and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-02-27 with total page 93 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent global financial crisis has forced a re-examination of risk transmission in the financial sector and how it affects financial stability. Current macroprudential policy and surveillance (MPS) efforts are aimed establishing a regulatory framework that helps mitigate the risk from systemic linkages with a view towards enhancing the resilience of the financial sector. This paper presents a forward-looking framework ("Systemic CCA") to measure systemic solvency risk based on market-implied expected losses of financial institutions with practical applications for the financial sector risk management and the system-wide capital assessment in top-down stress testing. The suggested approach uses advanced contingent claims analysis (CCA) to generate aggregate estimates of the joint default risk of multiple institutions as a conditional tail expectation using multivariate extreme value theory (EVT). In addition, the framework also helps quantify the individual contributions to systemic risk and contingent liabilities of the financial sector during times of stress.

Applied Corporate Finance

Author : Aswath Damodaran
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118808932
Total Pages : 663 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (188 download)

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Book Synopsis Applied Corporate Finance by : Aswath Damodaran

Download or read book Applied Corporate Finance written by Aswath Damodaran and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-10-27 with total page 663 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Aswath Damodaran, distinguished author, Professor of Finance, and David Margolis, Teaching Fellow at the NYU Stern School of Business, has delivered the newest edition of Applied Corporate Finance. This readable text provides the practical advice students and practitioners need rather than a sole concentration on debate theory, assumptions, or models. Like no other text of its kind, Applied Corporate Finance, 4th Edition applies corporate finance to real companies. It now contains six real-world core companies to study and follow. Business decisions are classified for students into three groups: investment, financing, and dividend decisions.

Volatility and Correlation

Author : Riccardo Rebonato
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470091401
Total Pages : 864 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Volatility and Correlation by : Riccardo Rebonato

Download or read book Volatility and Correlation written by Riccardo Rebonato and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-07-08 with total page 864 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Volatility and Correlation 2nd edition: The Perfect Hedger and the Fox, Rebonato looks at derivatives pricing from the angle of volatility and correlation. With both practical and theoretical applications, this is a thorough update of the highly successful Volatility & Correlation – with over 80% new or fully reworked material and is a must have both for practitioners and for students. The new and updated material includes a critical examination of the ‘perfect-replication’ approach to derivatives pricing, with special attention given to exotic options; a thorough analysis of the role of quadratic variation in derivatives pricing and hedging; a discussion of the informational efficiency of markets in commonly-used calibration and hedging practices. Treatment of new models including Variance Gamma, displaced diffusion, stochastic volatility for interest-rate smiles and equity/FX options. The book is split into four parts. Part I deals with a Black world without smiles, sets out the author’s ‘philosophical’ approach and covers deterministic volatility. Part II looks at smiles in equity and FX worlds. It begins with a review of relevant empirical information about smiles, and provides coverage of local-stochastic-volatility, general-stochastic-volatility, jump-diffusion and Variance-Gamma processes. Part II concludes with an important chapter that discusses if and to what extent one can dispense with an explicit specification of a model, and can directly prescribe the dynamics of the smile surface. Part III focusses on interest rates when the volatility is deterministic. Part IV extends this setting in order to account for smiles in a financially motivated and computationally tractable manner. In this final part the author deals with CEV processes, with diffusive stochastic volatility and with Markov-chain processes. Praise for the First Edition: “In this book, Dr Rebonato brings his penetrating eye to bear on option pricing and hedging.... The book is a must-read for those who already know the basics of options and are looking for an edge in applying the more sophisticated approaches that have recently been developed.” —Professor Ian Cooper, London Business School “Volatility and correlation are at the very core of all option pricing and hedging. In this book, Riccardo Rebonato presents the subject in his characteristically elegant and simple fashion...A rare combination of intellectual insight and practical common sense.” —Anthony Neuberger, London Business School