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The Impact Of Oil Prices On The Banking System In The Gcc
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Book Synopsis The Impact of Oil Prices on the Banking System in the GCC by : Padamja Khandelwal
Download or read book The Impact of Oil Prices on the Banking System in the GCC written by Padamja Khandelwal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-06 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the links between global oil price movements and macroeconomic and financial developments in the GCC. Using a range of multivariate panel approaches, including a panel vector autoregression approach, it finds strong empirical evidence of feedback loops between oil price movements, bank balance sheets, and asset prices. Empirical evidence also suggests that bank capital and provisioning have behaved countercyclically through the cycle.
Book Synopsis The Impact of Oil Prices on the Banking System in the GCC by : Padamja Khandelwal
Download or read book The Impact of Oil Prices on the Banking System in the GCC written by Padamja Khandelwal and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The GCC Banking Sector by : Abdullah Al-Hassan
Download or read book The GCC Banking Sector written by Abdullah Al-Hassan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-04-01 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we analyze the evolution of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) banking sectors in the six member countries including ownership, concentration, cross-border linkages, balance sheet exposures and risks, recent trends in credit growth, and financial soundness. We identify risks to the banking sector's financial stability in the context of the current global crisis and their mitigating factors.
Book Synopsis Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries and Challenges Ahead. by : Ms.May Y Khamis
Download or read book Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries and Challenges Ahead. written by Ms.May Y Khamis and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-03-12 with total page 79 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper focuses on impact of the global financial crisis on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries and challenges ahead. The oil price boom led to large fiscal and external balance surpluses in the GCC countries. However, it also generated domestic imbalances that began to unravel with the onset of the global credit squeeze. As the global deleveraging process took hold, and oil prices and production fell, the GCC’s external and fiscal surpluses declined markedly, stock and real estate markets plunged, credit default swap spreads on sovereign debt widened, and external funding for the financial and corporate sectors tightened. In order to offset the shocks brought on by the crisis, governments—buttressed by strong international reserve positions—maintained high levels of spending and introduced exceptional financial measures, including capital and liquidity injections. The immediate priority is to complete the clean-up of bank balance sheets and the restructuring of the nonbanking sector in some countries. Clear communication by the authorities would help implementation, ease investor uncertainty, and reduce speculation and market volatility.
Book Synopsis The Impact of Oil Prices on the Banking System in the GCC by : Padamja Khandelwal
Download or read book The Impact of Oil Prices on the Banking System in the GCC written by Padamja Khandelwal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-08-05 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the links between global oil price movements and macroeconomic and financial developments in the GCC. Using a range of multivariate panel approaches, including a panel vector autoregression approach, it finds strong empirical evidence of feedback loops between oil price movements, bank balance sheets, and asset prices. Empirical evidence also suggests that bank capital and provisioning have behaved countercyclically through the cycle.
Book Synopsis Oil Prices and Bank Profitability by : Tigran Poghosyan
Download or read book Oil Prices and Bank Profitability written by Tigran Poghosyan and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the relationship between oil price shocks and bank profitability. Using data on 145 banks in 11 oil-exporting MENA countries for 1994-2008, we test hypotheses of direct and indirect effects of oil price shocks on bank profitability. Our results indicate that oil price shocks have indirect effect on bank profitability, channeled through country-specific macroeconomic and institutional variables, while the direct effect is insignificant. Investment banks appear to be the most affected ones compared to Islamic and commercial banks. Our findings highlight systemic implications of oil price shocks on bank performance and underscore their importance for macroprudential regulation purposes in MENA countries.
Book Synopsis Oil Prices and GCC Stock Markets: New Evidence from Smooth Transition Models by : Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh
Download or read book Oil Prices and GCC Stock Markets: New Evidence from Smooth Transition Models written by Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-05-09 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Our paper examines the effect of oil price changes on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets using nonlinear smooth transition regression (STR) models. Contrary to conventional wisdom, our empirical results reveal that GCC stock markets do not have similar sensitivities to oil price changes. We document the presence of stock market returns’ asymmetric reactions in some GCC countries, but not for others. In Kuwait’s case, negative oil price changes exert larger impacts on stock returns than positive oil price changes. When considering the asymmetry with respect to the magnitude of oil price variation, we find that Oman’s and Qatar’s stock markets are more sensitive to large oil price changes than to small ones. Our results highlight the importance of economic stabilization and reform policies that can potentially reduce the sensitivity of stock returns to oil price changes, especially with regard to the existence of asymmetric behavior.
Book Synopsis Gulf Cooperation Council by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Gulf Cooperation Council written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-12-14 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global economic activity is gaining momentum. Global growth is forecast at 3.6 percent this year, and 3.7 percent in 2018, compared to 3.2 percent in 2016. Risks around this forecast are broadly balanced in the near term, but are skewed to the downside over the medium term. The more positive global growth environment should support somewhat stronger oil demand. With inflation in advanced countries remaining subdued, monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative. GCC countries are continuing to adjust to lower oil prices. Substantial fiscal consolidation has taken place in most countries, mainly focused on expenditure reduction. This is necessary, but it has weakened non-oil growth. With the pace of fiscal consolidation set to slow, non-oil growth is expected to increase to 2.6 percent this year, from 1.8 percent last year. However, because of lower oil output, overall real GDP growth is projected to slow to 0.5 percent in 2017 from 2.2 percent in 2016. Growth prospects in the medium-term remain subdued amid relatively low oil prices and geopolitical risks. Policymakers have made a strong start in adjusting fiscal policy. While the needed pace of fiscal adjustment varies across countries depending on the fiscal space available, in general countries should continue to focus on recurrent expenditure rationalization, further energy price reforms, increased non-oil revenues, and improved efficiency of capital spending. Fiscal consolidation should be accompanied by a further improvement in fiscal frameworks and institutions. The direction of fiscal policy in the GCC is broadly consistent with these recommendations. Policies should continue to be geared toward managing evolving liquidity situations in the banking system and supporting the private sector’s access to funding. While countries have made progress in enhancing their financial policy frameworks, strengthening liquidity forecasting and developing liquidity management instruments will help banks adjust to a tighter liquidity environment. Banks generally remain profitable, well capitalized, and liquid, but with growth expected to remain relatively weak, the monitoring of financial sector vulnerabilities should continue to be enhanced. Diversification and private sector development will be needed to offset lower government spending and ensure stronger, sustainable, and inclusive growth. This will require stepped-up reforms to improve the business climate and reduce the role of the public sector in the economy through privatization and PPPs. Reforms are needed to increase the incentives for nationals to work in the private sector and for private sector firms to hire them. Increasing female participation in the labor market and employment would benefit productivity and growth across the region. Where fiscal space is available, fiscal policy can be used to support the structural reforms needed to boost private sector growth and employment.
Book Synopsis Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects by : Mr.Raphael A. Espinoza
Download or read book Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects written by Mr.Raphael A. Espinoza and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-10-01 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: According to a dynamic panel estimated over 1995 - 2008 on around 80 banks in the GCC region, the NPL ratio worsens as economic growth becomes lower and interest rates and risk aversion increase. Our model implies that the cumulative effect of macroeconomic shocks over a three year horizon is indeed large. Firm-specific factors related to risk-taking and efficiency are also related to future NPLs. The paper finally investigates the feedback effect of increasing NPLs on growth using a VAR model. According to the panel VAR, there could be a strong, albeit short-lived feedback effect from losses in banks’ balance sheets on economic activity, with a semi-elasticity of around 0.4.
Book Synopsis Gulf Cooperation Council Banking Performance Analysis - An Exploratory Study by : Dr. S. Gokula Krishnan
Download or read book Gulf Cooperation Council Banking Performance Analysis - An Exploratory Study written by Dr. S. Gokula Krishnan and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 1 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study focuses on the Middle East Region including the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). GCC's main business is the exploration of oil and which contributes maximum government revenue. It is a two-fold analysis of macroeconomic variables assessing the effects on GCC banks' Key Performance Indicators (KPI). The research methodology employed is descriptive, having a detailed analysis of GCC economy and banking system. The analysis exhibited that the current economic decline is plunging oil prices resulting in the drawdown of revenue from oil companies. These had made a skewing impact on the macroeconomic variables such as GDP, currency pegging, stock market indices and etc. The second part of the analysis is the banking KPIs'. The study has revealed that for most MENA oil exporters, the fiscal adjustment is needed to absorb the unprecedented oil price shock.
Book Synopsis An Empirical Investigation of Oil-Macro-Financial Linkages in Saudi Arabia by : Mr.Ken Miyajima
Download or read book An Empirical Investigation of Oil-Macro-Financial Linkages in Saudi Arabia written by Mr.Ken Miyajima and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-02-12 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Oil-macro-financial linkages in Saudi Arabia are analyzed by applying panel econometric frameworks (multivariate and vector autoregression) to maceoeconomic and bank-level balance sheet data for 9 banks spanning 1999–2014. Lower growth of oil prices and non-oil private sector output leads to slower credit and deposit growth and higher nonperforming loan ratios, with feedback loops within bank balance sheets which in turn dampens economic activity. U.S. interest rates are not found to be a key determinant.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 : Total Pages :53 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (2 download)
Book Synopsis Gulf Cooperation Council by : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Download or read book Gulf Cooperation Council written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-11-29 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: GCC policymakers have managed to quickly mitigate the economic impact of the twin COVID-19 and oil price shock. Commodity prices have surged, and the outlook is more positive for GCC countries, with new challenges linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and tighter global financial conditions expected to have a limited impact on GCC economies. While GCC countries have overall benefited from higher, albeit volatile hydrocarbon prices, numerous risks still cloud the outlook—notably a slowdown in the global economy. In this context, the reform momentum established during the low oil price years should be maintained—irrespective of the level of hydrocarbon prices.
Book Synopsis The Impact of Oil Revenues on Arab Gulf Development by : M.S. El Azhary
Download or read book The Impact of Oil Revenues on Arab Gulf Development written by M.S. El Azhary and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2023-05-09 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the price of oil fell in the eighties the pressures on the Arab Gulf States to speed up the diversification of their economies into non-oil sectors increased. This book, first published in 1984, examines this problem and many other issues connected with the impact of oil revenues on development in the Gulf States. It considers changing oil production policies and developments in other sectors of the economy including agriculture, industry and banking. It explores population problems, moves towards Gulf economic coordination and the impact of oil on society, culture and education. This book provides an assessment of just how much the region depends on oil for its economic prosperity and development and some indication of the enormous problems that would face the region should the demand for oil decease still further.
Book Synopsis The Importance of the Relationship between OPEC Oil Prices and Gulf Cooperating Economy Banking Stock Returns by : John L. Simpson
Download or read book The Importance of the Relationship between OPEC Oil Prices and Gulf Cooperating Economy Banking Stock Returns written by John L. Simpson and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Gulf Cooperating Countries (GCC), which include Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, dominate other OPEC cartel countries in oil production. The GCC banking industry is the major component of the GCC stock market. The issue arises as to the strength of the relationship between OPEC oil price returns and GCC banking returns. The OPEC oil market and the GCC stock markets cannot be described as efficient. First order serial correlation exists in level series OPEC prices and in the GCC bank returns index values and in the returns of OPEC oil prices and banking index values. Regression models of unlagged price returns and index returns possess marginal explanatory power with a small positive relationship. A vector autoregressive model on lagged data also indicates this. However, the variables are cointegrated on an optimal one period lag. A vector error correction model indicates a stronger relationship between the variables than originally indicated. It appears that positive one-way causality runs significantly from GCC banking returns to OPEC oil price returns. These relationships are supported by impulse response analysis and variance decomposition. Despite lack of market efficiency, the question needs to be asked as to whether or not increased GCC banking returns partially influence the decisions by the OPEC cartel to restrict production and increase prices. The study should be of interest to regional bankers and economists. The findings reconfirm the interdependence and the importance of the banking industry and the oil industry in the GCC economies. The GCC needs to open stock markets to foreign investment and diversify away from oil dependence.
Book Synopsis Economic Diversification in the GCC by : Mr.Tim Callen
Download or read book Economic Diversification in the GCC written by Mr.Tim Callen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-23 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: The economies of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are heavily reliant on oil. Greater economic diversification would reduce their exposure to volatility and uncertainty in the global oil market, help create jobs in the private sector, increase productivity and sustainable growth, and help create the non-oil economy that will be needed in the future when oil revenues start to dwindle. The GCC countries have followed many of the standard policies that are usually thought to promote more diversified economies, including reforms to improve the business climate, the development of domestic infrastructure, financial deepening, and improvements in education. Nevertheless, success to date has been limited. This paper argues that increased diversification will require realigning incentives for firms and workers in the economies—fixing these incentives is the “missing link” in the GCC countries’ diversification strategies. At present, producing non-tradables is less risky and more profitable for firms as they can benefit from the easy availability of low-wage foreign labor and the rapid growth in government spending, while the continued availability of high-paying and secure public sector jobs discourages nationals from pursuing entrepreneurship and private sector employment. Measures to begin to address these incentive issues could include limiting and reorienting government spending, strengthening private sector competition, providing guarantees and financial support for those firms engaged in export activity, and implementing labor market reforms to make nationals more competitive for private sector employment.
Book Synopsis The Importance of the Relationship Between OPEC Oil Prices and Gulf Cooperating Country Banking Stock Returns by : John Simpson
Download or read book The Importance of the Relationship Between OPEC Oil Prices and Gulf Cooperating Country Banking Stock Returns written by John Simpson and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent research indicates that Gulf Cooperating Countries (GCC) group including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are significant as a component of the OPEC cartel. The GCC stock markets are primarily driven by the GCC banking industry. The issue arises as to the strength of the relationship between OPEC oil price returns and GCC banking stock returns.
Book Synopsis Oil Price Movements and Equity Returns Evidence from the GCC Countries by : Fathi M. Mohalhal
Download or read book Oil Price Movements and Equity Returns Evidence from the GCC Countries written by Fathi M. Mohalhal and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 174 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study examines to what extent how oil movements differently affect equity returns in general and sectoral levels of the GCC countries stock markets. Modeling the equity returns volatility requires using GARCH-type models. These models help to explore the pronounced differences of the conditional variance structures across sectors and markets. Chapter 1 compares the effects of changes in oil price return and its volatility on equity returns and volatility across sectors. The findings of this chapter show that despite the GCC states dependency on oil revenues, equity market performance at the sectoral level do not exactly associate with oil movements. Our results, in particular, show that the GCC stock markets do not always move hand-in-hand with oil market movements. In chapter 2, we explore the relationship within a specific sector, i.e. Banks sector in Saudi Arabia Stock market. We examine if oil price changes affect Islamic banks differently than conventional ones. The findings show a decrease in degree of co-movement between these two types of banking system and oil market, meaning that they are less integrated. Although the Islamic banks kept a higher degree of co-movement with oil, limitations of Shari'ah restrictions on Islamic banks have little impact on the relationship between oil and those banks. Chapter 3 examines whether the level of corruption influences how oil changes affect the GCC stock markets. The findings of chapter 3 show that dissimilar levels of corruption between GCC countries have inconsiderable differences on the oil return effects on the GCC stock markets. Oil returns affect both low and high level of corruption groups. The oil return innovation affects the equity volatility for Saudi Arabia and Kuwait more than other four GCC countries.
