The Forecasting Ability Of Correlations Implied In Foreign Exchange Options

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The Forecasting Ability of Correlations Implied in Foreign Exchange Options

Author : José Campa
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 48 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis The Forecasting Ability of Correlations Implied in Foreign Exchange Options by : José Campa

Download or read book The Forecasting Ability of Correlations Implied in Foreign Exchange Options written by José Campa and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper evaluates the forecasting accuracy of correlation derived from implied volatilities in dollar-mark, dollar-yen, and mark-yen options from January 1989 to May 1995. As a forecast of realized correlation between the dollar-mark and dollar-yen, implied correlation is compared against three alternative forecasts based on time series data: historical correlation, RiskMetrics' exponentially weighted moving average correlation, and correlation estimated using a bivariate GARCH (1,1) model. At the one-month and three-month forecast horizons, we find that implied correlation outperforms, often significantly, these alternative forecasts. In combinations, implied correlation always incrementally improves the performance of other forecasts, but not the converse; in certain cases historically based forecasts contribute no incremental information to implied forecasts. The superiority of the implied correlation forecast holds even when forecast errors are weighted by realized variances, reflecting correlation's contribution to the dollar variance of a multicurrency portfolio.

Principles of Forecasting

Author : J.S. Armstrong
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9780792374015
Total Pages : 880 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (74 download)

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Book Synopsis Principles of Forecasting by : J.S. Armstrong

Download or read book Principles of Forecasting written by J.S. Armstrong and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2001 with total page 880 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook summarises knowledge from experts and empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. Includes a comprehensive forecasting dictionary.

Market Expectations and Option Prices

Author : Martin Mandler
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642574289
Total Pages : 227 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (425 download)

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Book Synopsis Market Expectations and Option Prices by : Martin Mandler

Download or read book Market Expectations and Option Prices written by Martin Mandler and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a slightly revised version of my doctoral dissertation which has been accepted by the Department of Economics and Business Administration of the Justus-Liebig-Universitat Giessen in July 2002. I am indebted to my advisor Prof. Dr. Volbert Alexander for encouraging and supporting my research. I am also grateful to the second member of the doctoral committee, Prof. Dr. Horst Rinne. Special thanks go to Dr. Ralf Ahrens for providing part of the data and to my colleague Carsten Lang, who spent much time reading the complete first draft. Wetzlar, January 2003 Martin Mandler Contents 1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Part I Theoretical Foundations 2 Arbitrage Pricing and Risk-Neutral Probabilities........ .. 7 2.1 Arbitrage Pricing in the Black/Scholes-Merton Model... . . .. . 7 2.2 The Equivalent Martingale Measure and Risk-Neutral Valuation ............................................... 11 2.3 Extracting Risk-Neutral Probabilities from Option Prices. . . .. 13 2.4 Summary............................................... 15 Appendix 2A: The Valuation Function in the Black/Scholes-Merton Model .................................................. 16 Appendix 2B: Some Further Details on the Replication Strategy ... 21 3 Survey of the Related Literature .......................... 23 3.1 The Information Content of Forward and Futures Prices. . . .. . 24 3.2 The Information Content of Implied Volatilities ............. 25 3.2.1 Implied Volatilities and the Risk-Neutral Probability Density .......................................... 27 3.2.2 The Term Structure of Implied Volatilities. . . . . . . .. . . 29 . 3.2.3 The Forecasting Information in Implied Volatilities. . .. 30 3.2.4 Implied Correlations as Forecasts of Future Correlations 43 VIII Contents 3.3 The Skewness Premium ..... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . 45 . . . . . . .

Financial Risk Management

Author : Allan M. Malz
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118022912
Total Pages : 752 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (18 download)

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Book Synopsis Financial Risk Management by : Allan M. Malz

Download or read book Financial Risk Management written by Allan M. Malz and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-09-13 with total page 752 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial risk has become a focus of financial and nonfinancial firms, individuals, and policy makers. But the study of risk remains a relatively new discipline in finance and continues to be refined. The financial market crisis that began in 2007 has highlighted the challenges of managing financial risk. Now, in Financial Risk Management, author Allan Malz addresses the essential issues surrounding this discipline, sharing his extensive career experiences as a risk researcher, risk manager, and central banker. The book includes standard risk measurement models as well as alternative models that address options, structured credit risks, and the real-world complexities or risk modeling, and provides the institutional and historical background on financial innovation, liquidity, leverage, and financial crises that is crucial to practitioners and students of finance for understanding the world today. Financial Risk Management is equally suitable for firm risk managers, economists, and policy makers seeking grounding in the subject. This timely guide skillfully surveys the landscape of financial risk and the financial developments of recent decades that culminated in the crisis. The book provides a comprehensive overview of the different types of financial risk we face, as well as the techniques used to measure and manage them. Topics covered include: Market risk, from Value-at-Risk (VaR) to risk models for options Credit risk, from portfolio credit risk to structured credit products Model risk and validation Risk capital and stress testing Liquidity risk, leverage, systemic risk, and the forms they take Financial crises, historical and current, their causes and characteristics Financial regulation and its evolution in the wake of the global crisis And much more Combining the more model-oriented approach of risk management-as it has evolved over the past two decades-with an economist's approach to the same issues, Financial Risk Management is the essential guide to the subject for today's complex world.

Understanding Market, Credit, and Operational Risk

Author : Linda Allen
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 140514226X
Total Pages : 312 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (51 download)

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Book Synopsis Understanding Market, Credit, and Operational Risk by : Linda Allen

Download or read book Understanding Market, Credit, and Operational Risk written by Linda Allen and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-02-04 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A step-by-step, real world guide to the use of Value at Risk (VaR) models, this text applies the VaR approach to the measurement of market risk, credit risk and operational risk. The book describes and critiques proprietary models, illustrating them with practical examples drawn from actual case studies. Explaining the logic behind the economics and statistics, this technically sophisticated yet intuitive text should be an essential resource for all readers operating in a world of risk. Applies the Value at Risk approach to market, credit, and operational risk measurement. Illustrates models with real-world case studies. Features coverage of BIS bank capital requirements.

Volatility and Correlation

Author : Riccardo Rebonato
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470091401
Total Pages : 864 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Volatility and Correlation by : Riccardo Rebonato

Download or read book Volatility and Correlation written by Riccardo Rebonato and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-07-08 with total page 864 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Volatility and Correlation 2nd edition: The Perfect Hedger and the Fox, Rebonato looks at derivatives pricing from the angle of volatility and correlation. With both practical and theoretical applications, this is a thorough update of the highly successful Volatility & Correlation – with over 80% new or fully reworked material and is a must have both for practitioners and for students. The new and updated material includes a critical examination of the ‘perfect-replication’ approach to derivatives pricing, with special attention given to exotic options; a thorough analysis of the role of quadratic variation in derivatives pricing and hedging; a discussion of the informational efficiency of markets in commonly-used calibration and hedging practices. Treatment of new models including Variance Gamma, displaced diffusion, stochastic volatility for interest-rate smiles and equity/FX options. The book is split into four parts. Part I deals with a Black world without smiles, sets out the author’s ‘philosophical’ approach and covers deterministic volatility. Part II looks at smiles in equity and FX worlds. It begins with a review of relevant empirical information about smiles, and provides coverage of local-stochastic-volatility, general-stochastic-volatility, jump-diffusion and Variance-Gamma processes. Part II concludes with an important chapter that discusses if and to what extent one can dispense with an explicit specification of a model, and can directly prescribe the dynamics of the smile surface. Part III focusses on interest rates when the volatility is deterministic. Part IV extends this setting in order to account for smiles in a financially motivated and computationally tractable manner. In this final part the author deals with CEV processes, with diffusive stochastic volatility and with Markov-chain processes. Praise for the First Edition: “In this book, Dr Rebonato brings his penetrating eye to bear on option pricing and hedging.... The book is a must-read for those who already know the basics of options and are looking for an edge in applying the more sophisticated approaches that have recently been developed.” —Professor Ian Cooper, London Business School “Volatility and correlation are at the very core of all option pricing and hedging. In this book, Riccardo Rebonato presents the subject in his characteristically elegant and simple fashion...A rare combination of intellectual insight and practical common sense.” —Anthony Neuberger, London Business School

Evaluating Forecasts of Correlation Using Option Pricing

Author : Michael S. Gibson
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 60 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis Evaluating Forecasts of Correlation Using Option Pricing by : Michael S. Gibson

Download or read book Evaluating Forecasts of Correlation Using Option Pricing written by Michael S. Gibson and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Is Implied Correlation Worth Calculating?

Author : Christian Walter
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 54 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis Is Implied Correlation Worth Calculating? by : Christian Walter

Download or read book Is Implied Correlation Worth Calculating? written by Christian Walter and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Journal of Derivatives

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 292 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis The Journal of Derivatives by :

Download or read book The Journal of Derivatives written by and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Financial Trading and Investing

Author : John L. Teall
Publisher : Academic Press
ISBN 13 : 0323984452
Total Pages : 572 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (239 download)

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Book Synopsis Financial Trading and Investing by : John L. Teall

Download or read book Financial Trading and Investing written by John L. Teall and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2022-07-09 with total page 572 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Trading and Investing, Third Edition provides a useful introduction to trading and market microstructure for advanced undergraduate as well as master's students. Without demanding a background in econometrics, the book explores alternative markets and highlights recent regulatory developments, implementations, institutions and debates. The text offers explanations of controversial trading tactics (and blunders) such as high-frequency trading, dark liquidity pools, fat fingers, insider trading and flash orders, emphasizing links between the history of financial regulation and events in financial markets. It includes coverage of valuation and hedging techniques, particularly with respect to fixed income and derivative securities. The text adds a chapter on financial utilities and institutions that provide support services to traders and updates regulatory matters. Combining theory and application, this book provides a practical beginner's introduction to today's investment tools and markets with a special emphasis on trading. - Concentrates on trading, trading institutions, markets and the institutions that facilitate and regulate trading activities - Introduces foundational topics relating to trading and securities markets, including auctions, market microstructure, the roles of information and inventories, behavioral finance, market efficiency, risk, arbitrage, trading technology, trading regulation and ECNs - Covers market and technology advances and innovations, such as execution algo trading, Designated Market Makers (DMMs), Supplemental Liquidity Providers (SLPs), and the Super Display Book system (SDBK) - Includes improved pedagogical supplements, including end-of-chapter questions with detailed solutions at the end of the text, and useful appendices - Student resources available online: https://www.elsevier.com/books-and-journals/book-companion/9780323909556 - Instructor resources available for request by qualified professors: https://educate.elsevier.com/9780323909556

Implied Exchange Rate Distributions

Author : José Campa
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 64 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis Implied Exchange Rate Distributions by : José Campa

Download or read book Implied Exchange Rate Distributions written by José Campa and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper uses a rich new data set of option prices on the dollar-mark, dollar-yen, and key EMS cross-rates to extract the entire risk-neutral probability density function (pdf) over horizons of one and three months. We compare three alternative smoothing methods--cubic splines, an implied binomial tree (trimmed and untrimmed), and a mixture of lognormals--for transforming option data into the pdf. Despite their methodological ifferences, the three approaches lead to a similar pdf distinct from the lognormal benchmark, and usually characterized by skewness and leptokurtosis. We then document a striking positive correlation between skewness in these pdfs and the spot rate. The stronger a currency the more expectations are skewed towards a further appreciation of that currency. We interpret this finding as a rejection that these exchange rates evolve as a martingale, or that they follow a credible target zone, explicit or implicit. Instead, this this positive correlation is consistent with target zones with endogenous realignment risk. We discuss two interpretations of our results on skewness: when a currency is stronger, the actual probability of further large appreciation is higher, or because of risk, such states are valued more highly.

Review

Author : Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 502 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis Review by : Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Download or read book Review written by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 502 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Working Paper Series

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 560 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (54 download)

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Book Synopsis Working Paper Series by :

Download or read book Working Paper Series written by and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 560 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Pitfalls in Tests for Changes in Correlations

Author : Brian H. Boyer
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 28 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis Pitfalls in Tests for Changes in Correlations by : Brian H. Boyer

Download or read book Pitfalls in Tests for Changes in Correlations written by Brian H. Boyer and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Journal of International Money and Finance

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 1182 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (66 download)

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Book Synopsis Journal of International Money and Finance by :

Download or read book Journal of International Money and Finance written by and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 1182 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Earlier place of publication varies.

The Effect of Managed Care on Health Care Providers

Author : Laurence C. Baker
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 60 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis The Effect of Managed Care on Health Care Providers by : Laurence C. Baker

Download or read book The Effect of Managed Care on Health Care Providers written by Laurence C. Baker and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate the effect of managed care on the health care system, focusing on the effects managed care could have on the number and types of health care providers and their efficiency. By influencing providers, managed care may change the structure and performance of the entire health care system in ways that influence care provided to all patients. We begin by discussing the mechanisms by which managed care influences health care providers, concentrating on shifts in market demand and increases in the amount of attention paid to price in provider choices. We develop a theoretical framework that illustrates these effects. We then empirically examine the relationship between managed care activity and mammography providers. We find evidence that increases in HMO activity are associated with changes in the number of providers, the volume of services produced by each provider, and the prices they charge. This evidence is consistent with the view that HMOs can have broad effects on health care providers.

New Evidence on the Money's Worth of Individual Annuities

Author : Olivia S. Mitchell
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 60 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis New Evidence on the Money's Worth of Individual Annuities by : Olivia S. Mitchell

Download or read book New Evidence on the Money's Worth of Individual Annuities written by Olivia S. Mitchell and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents new information on the expected present discounted value of payouts on individual life annuities. The annuity we examine is the single premium immediate life annuity, an insurance product that pays out a nominal level sum as long as the covered person lives, in exchange for an initial lump-sum premium. This annuity offers protection against the risk of someone outliving his saving, given uncertainty about longevity. For reasonable estimates of behavioral parameters, we calculate that individual annuities are currently priced so that retirees without bequest motives should find these policies of substantial value in configuring their portfolios to smooth retirement consumption. We also find that the expected present discounted value of payouts, relative to the initial cost of the annuity, has increased over the last decade. These findings bear on the policy debate regarding the role of individual choice and self-reliance in retirement planning.