Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9789289468602
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (686 download)
Book Synopsis The Extent of Seasonal/business Cycle Interactions in European Industrial Production by :
Download or read book The Extent of Seasonal/business Cycle Interactions in European Industrial Production written by and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent literature has uncovered evidence that the seasonal pattern in industrial production changes over the business cycle, with seasonality typically being less pronounced in periods of high growth than in the low growth (or recession) business cycle phase. Matas Mir and Osborn (2003a) examine this effect using monthly data for various OECD countries, finding that the change in the seasonal pattern is typically concentrated in the summer months. The present paper extends this analysis in a specifically European context, by presenting measures of the extent of seasonal/business cycle interactions for industrial production series from the countries of the European Union. The analysis is undertaken using a nonlinear threshold model that allows the overall mean and seasonal characteristics to change with the regime. The extent of seasonality in each regime is represented as the average absolute deviation of the steady-state growth in each month from the overall steady-state mean growth in that regime. Seasonal/business cycle interaction is then measured in two ways, namely as the difference and the ratio of the regime-dependent seasonality. All these measures are computed over all months, and also separately for the summer and non-summer months. The results reinforce previous findings of reduced seasonality in higher growth periods, with the seasonal pattern sometimes being moderated by 20 percent or more (both over the year and in the summer months).