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Author : Robert M. Eisinger
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521017008
Total Pages : 232 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (17 download)
Download or read book The Evolution of Presidential Polling written by Robert M. Eisinger and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2003-01-20 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sample Text
Author : Robert S. Erikson
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226922162
Total Pages : 221 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (269 download)
Download or read book The Timeline of Presidential Elections written by Robert S. Erikson and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2012-08-24 with total page 221 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In presidential elections, do voters cast their ballots for the candidates whose platform and positions best match their own? Or is the race for president of the United States come down largely to who runs the most effective campaign? It’s a question those who study elections have been considering for years with no clear resolution. In The Timeline of Presidential Elections, Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien reveal for the first time how both factors come into play. Erikson and Wlezien have amassed data from close to two thousand national polls covering every presidential election from 1952 to 2008, allowing them to see how outcomes take shape over the course of an election year. Polls from the beginning of the year, they show, have virtually no predictive power. By mid-April, when the candidates have been identified and matched in pollsters’ trial heats, preferences have come into focus—and predicted the winner in eleven of the fifteen elections. But a similar process of forming favorites takes place in the last six months, during which voters’ intentions change only gradually, with particular events—including presidential debates—rarely resulting in dramatic change. Ultimately, Erikson and Wlezien show that it is through campaigns that voters are made aware of—or not made aware of—fundamental factors like candidates’ policy positions that determine which ticket will get their votes. In other words, fundamentals matter, but only because of campaigns. Timely and compelling, this book will force us to rethink our assumptions about presidential elections.
Author : W. Joseph Campbell
Publisher : Univ of California Press
ISBN 13 : 0520397827
Total Pages : 366 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (23 download)
Download or read book Lost in a Gallup written by W. Joseph Campbell and published by Univ of California Press. This book was released on 2024-02-20 with total page 366 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This update of a lively, first-of-its-kind study of polling misfires and fiascoes in U.S. presidential campaigns takes up pollsters’ failure over the decades to offer accurate assessments of the most important of American elections. Lost in a Gallup tells the story of polling flops and failures in presidential elections since 1936. Polls do go bad, as outcomes in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2004, and 2000 all remind us. This updated edition includes a new chapter and conclusion that address the 2020 polling surprise and considers whether polls will get it right in 2024. As author W. Joseph Campbell discusses, polling misfires in presidential elections are not all alike. Pollsters have anticipated tight elections when landslides have occurred. They have pointed to the wrong winner in closer elections. Misleading state polls have thrown off expected national outcomes. Polling failure also can lead to media error. Journalists covering presidential races invariably take their lead from polls. When polls go bad, media narratives can be off-target as well. Lost in a Gallup encourages readers to treat election polls with healthy skepticism, recognizing that they could be wrong.
Author : Mark Pack
Publisher : Reaktion Books
ISBN 13 : 1789145678
Total Pages : 353 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (891 download)
Download or read book Polling UnPacked written by Mark Pack and published by Reaktion Books. This book was released on 2022-06-03 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From a political-polling expert, an eye-opening—and hilarious—look at the origins of polls and how they have been used and abused ever since. Opinion polls dominate media coverage of politics, especially elections. But how do the polls work? How do we tell the good from the bad? And in light of recent polling disasters, can we trust them at all? Polling UnPacked gives us the full story, from the first rudimentary polls in the nineteenth century, through attempts by politicians to ban polling in the twentieth century, to the very latest techniques and controversies from the last few years. Equal parts enlightening and hilarious, the book requires no prior knowledge of polling or statistics to understand. But even hardened pollsters will find much to enjoy, from how polling has been used to help plan military invasions to why an exhausted interviewer was accidentally instrumental in inventing exit polls. Written by a former political pollster and the creator of Britain’s foremost polling-intention database, Polling UnPacked reveals which opinion polls to trust, which to ignore, and which, frankly, to laugh at. It will change the way we see political coverage forever.
Author : W Joseph Campbell
Publisher : Univ of California Press
ISBN 13 : 0520397789
Total Pages : 365 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (23 download)
Download or read book Lost in a Gallup written by W Joseph Campbell and published by Univ of California Press. This book was released on 2024-02-20 with total page 365 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This update of a lively, first-of-its-kind study of polling misfires and fiascoes in U.S. presidential campaigns takes up pollsters' failure over the decades to offer accurate assessments of the most important of American elections. Lost in a Gallup tells the story of polling flops and failures in presidential elections since 1936. Polls do go bad, as outcomes in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2004, and 2000 all remind us. This updated edition includes a new chapter and conclusion that address the 2020 polling surprise and considers whether polls will get it right in 2024. As author W. Joseph Campbell discusses, polling misfires in presidential elections are not all alike. Pollsters have anticipated tight elections when landslides have occurred. They have pointed to the wrong winner in closer elections. Misleading state polls have thrown off expected national outcomes. Polling failure also can lead to media error. Journalists covering presidential races invariably take their lead from polls. When polls go bad, media narratives can be off-target as well. Lost in a Gallup encourages readers to treat election polls with healthy skepticism, recognizing that they could be wrong.
Author : Michael J. Towle
Publisher : Texas A&M University Press
ISBN 13 : 9781585442737
Total Pages : 190 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (427 download)
Download or read book Out of Touch written by Michael J. Towle and published by Texas A&M University Press. This book was released on 2004 with total page 190 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For the three cases observed, growing out of touch did not cause declining public support, but rather declining support led to the phenomenon of growing out of touch." "Relying on extensive use of material from presidential archives, Towle examines how these administrations altered their interpretation of public opinion and how their motivations to consider public opinion changed over their terms. He concludes that the modern presidential need for public support interferes with the ability of administrations to be responsive to public opinion."--Jacket.
Author : Glen Krutz
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781738998470
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (984 download)
Download or read book American Government 3e written by Glen Krutz and published by . This book was released on 2023-05-12 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Black & white print. American Government 3e aligns with the topics and objectives of many government courses. Faculty involved in the project have endeavored to make government workings, issues, debates, and impacts meaningful and memorable to students while maintaining the conceptual coverage and rigor inherent in the subject. With this objective in mind, the content of this textbook has been developed and arranged to provide a logical progression from the fundamental principles of institutional design at the founding, to avenues of political participation, to thorough coverage of the political structures that constitute American government. The book builds upon what students have already learned and emphasizes connections between topics as well as between theory and applications. The goal of each section is to enable students not just to recognize concepts, but to work with them in ways that will be useful in later courses, future careers, and as engaged citizens. In order to help students understand the ways that government, society, and individuals interconnect, the revision includes more examples and details regarding the lived experiences of diverse groups and communities within the United States. The authors and reviewers sought to strike a balance between confronting the negative and harmful elements of American government, history, and current events, while demonstrating progress in overcoming them. In doing so, the approach seeks to provide instructors with ample opportunities to open discussions, extend and update concepts, and drive deeper engagement.
Author : American Historical Association. Historical Service Board
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 52 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)
Download or read book Are Opinion Polls Useful? written by American Historical Association. Historical Service Board and published by . This book was released on 1946 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Fritz J. Scheuren
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470399449
Total Pages : 333 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (73 download)
Download or read book Elections and Exit Polling written by Fritz J. Scheuren and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-06-30 with total page 333 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "An understanding of the relationship between the product and the process in election polling is often lost. This edited volume unites ideas and researchers, with quality playing the central role." —J. Michael Brick, PhD, Director of the Survey Methods Unit, Westat, Inc. Elections and Exit Polling is a truly unique examination of the specialized surveys that are currently used to track and collect data on elections and voter preferences. Employing modern research from the past decade and a series of interviews with famed American pollster Warren Mitofsky (1934-2006), this volume provides a relevant and groundbreaking look at the key statistical techniques and survey methods for measuring voter preferences worldwide. Drawing on the most current studies on pre-election and exit polling, this book outlines improvements that have developed in recent years and the results of their implementation. Coverage begins with an introduction to exit polling and a basic overview of its history, structure, limitations, and applications. Subsequent chapters focus on the use of exit polling in the United States election cycles from 2000–2006 and the problems that were encountered by both pollsters and the everyday voter, such as how to validate official vote count, confidentiality, new voting methods, and continuing data quality concerns. The text goes on to explore the presence of these issues in international politics, with examples and case studies of elections from Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Finally, looking to the upcoming 2008 U.S. presidential election, the discussion concludes with predictions and recommendations on how to gather more accurate and timely polling data. Research papers from over fifty eminent practitioners in the fields of political science and survey methods are presented alongside excerpts from the editors' own interviews with Mitofsky. The editors also incorporate their own reflections throughout and conclude each chapter with a Summary Observations section that highlights notable concepts and trends. The appendix features sample questionnaires from actual exit polling scenarios and an extensive bibliography directs the reader to additional references for further study. Combining wisdom from one of the most notable names in the field along with findings from modern research and insightful recommendations for future practices, Elections and Exit Polling is an excellent supplement for political science and survey research courses at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also a one-of-a-kind reference for pollsters, survey researchers, statisticians, and anyone with a general interest in the methods behind global elections and exit polling.
Author : Mary E. Stuckey
Publisher : Penn State Press
ISBN 13 : 027107194X
Total Pages : 166 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (71 download)
Download or read book Voting Deliberatively written by Mary E. Stuckey and published by Penn State Press. This book was released on 2015-06-19 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 1932 election of Franklin Delano Roosevelt seemed to hold the promise of Democratic domination for years to come. However, leading up to the 1936 election, persistent economic problems, a controversial domestic agenda, and the perception of a weak foreign policy were chipping away at public support. The president faced unrelenting criticism from both the Left and the Right, and it seemed unlikely that he would cruise to the same clear victory he enjoyed in 1932. But 1936 was yet another landslide win for FDR, which makes it easy to forget just how contested the campaign was. In Voting Deliberatively, Mary Stuckey examines little-discussed components of FDR’s 1936 campaign that aided his victory. She reveals four elements of this reelection campaign that have not received adequate attention: the creation of public opinion, the attention paid to local organizations, the focus on specific kinds of interests, and the public rhetoric that tied it all together. Previous studies of the 1936 presidential election discuss elements such as FDR’s vulnerability before the campaign and the weakness of Republican candidate Alf Landon. But these histories pay little attention to the quantity and quality of information Roosevelt acquired, the importance of organizations such as the Good Neighbor League and the Committee of One, the mobilization of the vote, and the ways in which these organizational strategies fused with Roosevelt’s rhetorical strategies. Stuckey shows how these facets combined in one of the largest victories in Electoral College history and provided a template for future victory.
Author : Syl Sobel
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 54 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)
Download or read book Presidential Elections written by Syl Sobel and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Young readers will find all kinds of interesting facts as they learn who can run for president, who can vote, and what the Electoral College is and how it works.
Author : Allan J. Lichtman
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 246 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (818 download)
Download or read book Predicting the Next President written by Allan J. Lichtman and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2024-07 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the days after Donald Trump’s unexpected victory on election night 2016, The New York Times, CNN, and other leading media outlets reached out to one of the few pundits who had correctly predicted the outcome, Allan J. Lichtman. While many election forecasters base their findings exclusively on public opinion polls, Lichtman looks at the underlying fundamentals that have driven every presidential election since 1860. Using his 13 historical factors or “keys” (four political, seven performance, and two personality), Lichtman had been predicting Trump’s win since September 2016. In the updated 2024 edition, he applies the keys to every presidential election since 1860 and shows readers the current state of the 2024 race. In doing so, he dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. An indispensable resource for political junkies!
Author : Frank Newport
Publisher : Grand Central Publishing
ISBN 13 : 0759511764
Total Pages : 205 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (595 download)
Download or read book Polling Matters written by Frank Newport and published by Grand Central Publishing. This book was released on 2004-07-30 with total page 205 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From The Gallup Organization-the most respected source on the subject-comes a fascinating look at the importance of measuring public opinion in modern society. For years, public-opinion polls have been a valuable tool for gauging the positions of American citizens on a wide variety of topics. Polling applies scientific principles to understanding and anticipating the insights, emotions, and attitudes of society. Now in POLLING MATTERS: Why Leaders Must Listen to the Wisdom of the People, The Gallup Organization reveals: What polls really are and how they are conducted Why the information polls provide is so vitally important to modern society today How this valuable information can be used more effectively and more...
Author : Paul Kleppner
Publisher : Praeger
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 322 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book The Evolution of American Electoral Systems written by Paul Kleppner and published by Praeger. This book was released on 1981-12-23 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 030947647X
Total Pages : 181 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (94 download)
Download or read book Securing the Vote written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2018-09-30 with total page 181 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the 2016 presidential election, America's election infrastructure was targeted by actors sponsored by the Russian government. Securing the Vote: Protecting American Democracy examines the challenges arising out of the 2016 federal election, assesses current technology and standards for voting, and recommends steps that the federal government, state and local governments, election administrators, and vendors of voting technology should take to improve the security of election infrastructure. In doing so, the report provides a vision of voting that is more secure, accessible, reliable, and verifiable.
Author : R. Saltman
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 1403977216
Total Pages : 240 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (39 download)
Download or read book The History and Politics of Voting Technology written by R. Saltman and published by Springer. This book was released on 2006-01-21 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Saltman traces the evolution of voting technology in the USA, from voice to digital, highlighting how the antiquated systems in use today are a legacy of the industrial revolution of the Nineteenth-century and the early computer revolution of the 1950s and analyses the current day situation.
Author : Marc Schulman
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781885881199
Total Pages : 188 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (811 download)
Download or read book A History of American Presidential Elections: From George Washington to Barack Obama written by Marc Schulman and published by . This book was released on 2012-05-01 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: All New Updated to Include the 2012 Election American Presidential Elections: From George Washington to Barack Obama is a comprehensive reference on American elections. The book contains overviews of the issues and events of every election in US history, including charts with popular votes, electoral votes, and states carried. The election summary also includes information on party conventions. the book open with a section explaining how elections take place, why people vote and other issues in elections. Questions such as why certain different religious groups vote for Republicans or Democrats are explored, including a novel theory on Jewish voting. American Presidential Elections is a must for anyone interested in American politics!
