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Author : Angela Wilkinson
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9789048522101
Total Pages : 168 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (221 download)
Download or read book The Essence of Scenarios written by Angela Wilkinson and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Roland Kupers
Publisher : Amsterdam University Press
ISBN 13 : 9048522099
Total Pages : 170 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (485 download)
Download or read book The essence of scenarios written by Roland Kupers and published by Amsterdam University Press. This book was released on 2015-12-15 with total page 170 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 1965, Royal Dutch Shell started experimenting with a new approach to preparing for the future. This approach, called scenario planning, eschewed forecasting in favor of plausible alternative stories. By using stories, or scenarios, Shell aimed to avoid the false assumption that the future would look much like the presentan assumption that marred most corporate planning at the time. The Essence of Scenarios offers unmatched insight into the companys innovative practice, which still has a huge influence on the way businesses, governments, and other organizations think about and plan for the future. In the course of their research, Angela Wilkinson and Roland Kupers interviewed almost every living veteran of the Shell scenario planning operation, along with many top Shell executives from later periods. Drawing on these interviews, the authors identify several principles that characterize the Shell process and explain how it has survived and thrived for so long. They also enumerate the qualities of successful Shell scenarios, which above all must be plausible stories with logical trajectories. Ultimately, Wilkinson and Kupers demonstrate the value of scenario planning as a sustained practice, rather than as a one-off exercise.
Author : Andrew Krepinevich
Publisher : Bantam
ISBN 13 : 0553905619
Total Pages : 352 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (539 download)
Download or read book 7 Deadly Scenarios written by Andrew Krepinevich and published by Bantam. This book was released on 2009-01-27 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A global pandemic finds millions swarming across the U.S. border. Major American cities are leveled by black-market nukes. China’s growing civil unrest ignites a global showdown. Pakistan’s collapse leads to a hunt for its nuclear weapons. What if the worst that could happen actually happens? How will we respond? Are we prepared? These are the questions that Andrew F. Krepinevich asks—and answers—in this timely and often chilling book. As a military expert and consultant, Krepinevich must think the unthinkable based on the latest intelligence and geopolitical trends—and devise a response in the event our worst nightmares become reality. As riveting as a thriller, 7 Deadly Scenarios reveals the forces—both overt and covert—that are in play; the real ambitions of world powers, terrorist groups, and rogue states; and the actions and counteractions both our enemies and our allies can be expected to take—and what we must do to prepare before it’s too late.
Author : David Holmgren
Publisher : Chelsea Green Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1603582061
Total Pages : 138 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (35 download)
Download or read book Future Scenarios written by David Holmgren and published by Chelsea Green Publishing. This book was released on 2012-04-04 with total page 138 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Future Scenarios, permaculture co-originator and leading sustainability innovator David Holmgren outlines four scenarios that bring to life the likely cultural, political, agricultural, and economic implications of peak oil and climate change, and the generations-long era of “energy descent” that faces us. “Scenario planning,” Holmgren explains, “allows us to use stories about the future as a reference point for imagining how particular strategies and structures might thrive, fail, or be transformed.” Future Scenarios depicts four very different futures. Each is a permutation of mild or destructive climate change, combined with either slow or severe energy declines. Probable futures, explains Holmgren, range from the relatively benign Green Tech scenario to the near catastrophic Lifeboats scenario. As Adam Grubb, founder of the influential Energy Bulletin website, says, “These aren’t two-dimensional nightmarish scenarios designed to scare people into environmental action. They are compellingly fleshed-out visions of quite plausible alternative futures, which delve into energy, politics, agriculture, social, and even spiritual trends. What they do help make clear are the best strategies for preparing for and adapting to these possible futures.” Future Scenarios provides brilliant and balanced consideration of the world’s options and will prove to be one of the most important books of the year.
Author : Thomas J Chermack
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1317279395
Total Pages : 304 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (172 download)
Download or read book Foundations of Scenario Planning written by Thomas J Chermack and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-02-03 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Pierre Wack was head of scenario planning at Royal Dutch / Shell Oil in London for just over ten years. He died in 1997. He was a pioneer of what we know today as scenario planning – an alternative and complement to strategic planning. Scenarios explore a variety of possible futures for examining decisions in organizational planning. Pierre was a unique man with interests in Indian and Japanese cultures and traditions. He travelled extensively and led a unique life that involved long periods of visiting gurus in India and extended sabbaticals in Japan. His experiences with Eastern thought no doubt shaped his ability to evolve the scenario method at Shell, and as a result he was able to lead a team that foresaw the oil crises of the 1970’s and 80’s. This new volume will cover the basic context of his life timeline and attach it to the development of his thinking about scenario planning over the course of his career. After his death, Wack’s materials, papers and documents were collected by Napier Collyns and have recently been made available at the University of Oxford where the Pierre Wack Memorial Library has been established. These documents contain a variety of clues and stories that reveal more about who Pierre Wack was, how he thought and will provide details about scenario planning that have never been seen or published. They also reveal a curious man and include a timeline written by his wife, Eve, which details their relationship over the course of 40 years. Written for management and business historians and researchers, this book will uncover unseen contributions by a scenario planning pioneer shaped by significant events in his personal life that helped him to see the world differently.
Author : Adam Kahane
Publisher : Berrett-Koehler Publishers
ISBN 13 : 1609944909
Total Pages : 150 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (99 download)
Download or read book Transformative Scenario Planning written by Adam Kahane and published by Berrett-Koehler Publishers. This book was released on 2012-10-15 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Transformative scenario planning is a way that people can work together with others to transform themselves and their relationships with one another and their systems. In this simple and practical book, Kahane explains this methodology and how to use it.
Author : Pierre Wack
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 17 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (275 download)
Download or read book Scenarios written by Pierre Wack and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Gill Ringland
Publisher : Wiley
ISBN 13 : 9780470843833
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (438 download)
Download or read book Scenarios in Public Policy written by Gill Ringland and published by Wiley. This book was released on 2002-05-22 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The history of scenario planning is rich and varied. Throughout the ages people have tried to make decisions today by studying the possibilities of tomorrow. When that tomorrow was more predictable and less fraught with uncertainty, those possibilities had a good chance of being the right ones. Now, however, the only given constant in a world of complexity is change itself. In an environment where information technology is driving an information revolution, and where the rules can be rewritten with breathtaking speed, planning can seem more based on luck than foresight. There are methods for coping with unpredictability. The Scenario planning techniques described in this book will help to think about uncertainty in a structured way. Based on Gill Ringland's previous book Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future, this updated and expanded version focuses specifically on scenarios in public policy. The use of scenarios to create a framework for a shared vision of the future, by promoting discussion and building consensus outside a business environment, is examined. Ringland also looks at the similarities between organizations which have used scenarios successfully - such as the importance of communication via storyline and image. Scenarios in Public Policy and its companion, Scenario Planning in Business are both practical paperback books that each expand on specific areas of Scenario Planning. They will appeal to managers looking to learn about and apply a particular aspect of scenario planning. Reviews of Gill Ringland's prevoius work: "Nobody can ignore the future. This book is a must-read for any manager aspiring to put scenarios into practice." Arie de Geus, Former Director of Shell International Petroleum and author of 'The Living Company' "(Gill Ringland) offers us a mechanism by which to bring structure to information technology and other forms of complexity, offering us the vital ability to understand the dynamics of change." Oliver Sparrow, Chatham House Forum
Author : Bill Sharpe
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 9780470723098
Total Pages : 434 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (23 download)
Download or read book Scenarios for Success written by Bill Sharpe and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-07-31 with total page 434 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Properly researched and intelligently deployed, scenario planning is today’s most powerful tool for understanding and preparing for an uncertain future. Yet it remains a niche approach, poorly understood by leaders at large. To bring it into the strategy mainstream, leaders need advice on how to turn concepts (scenarios) into actions (strategy). Scenarios for Success delivers a unique and coherent account of the state of the scenario planning art. It is aimed particularly at those trying to implement its findings. Striking a balance between theory and practice, the contributors show how and why the core techniques of scenario thinking have endured and are still valuable, while bringing new tools and processes that keep scenario planning in touch with modern realities.
Author : Kees van der Heijden
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119995523
Total Pages : 347 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (199 download)
Download or read book Scenarios written by Kees van der Heijden and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-03-10 with total page 347 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Scenario planning allows companies to move away from linear thinking and better understand external change. Eight years (and 30,000 copies) after publication Scenarios is still acknowledged as the definitive work in the field. Now, Kees van der Heijden brings his bestseller up to date, following up on his original case studies and adding significant new material. The Second Edition changes focus slightly by providing more in-depth analysis and application of the concept of the 'strategic conversation'. While maintaining the underlying rigour of the first edition, van der Heijden revisits the text to make it far more practical and accessible, and in doing so gives you the tools you need to set out and negotiate a successful future course for your organization in the face of significant uncertainty.
Author : Thomas J. Chermack
Publisher : Berrett-Koehler Publishers
ISBN 13 : 1523092904
Total Pages : 287 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (23 download)
Download or read book Using Scenarios written by Thomas J. Chermack and published by Berrett-Koehler Publishers. This book was released on 2022-02-01 with total page 287 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first book to offer detailed guidance on how scenarios can be used to help organizations make their toughest decisions in a world of ever-escalating crisis and opportunity. To reap the full benefits of scenarios, you have to be able to apply them in the real world. This groundbreaking book goes beyond the theoretical to clearly explain different ways scenarios can be used in business decision-making—from strategic planning and financial modeling to crisis response. Connecting scenarios to strategy and action can have many benefits, including the ability to react quickly, anticipate major changes in the environment, and identify major opportunities. Thomas Chermack, a top expert on scenario planning, offers seven specific ways organizations can use scenarios and provides a wide variety of examples, along with proven processes, exercises, and workshops that have been used successfully in organizations across industries and countries for more than fifteen years.
Author : Mats Lindgren
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 0230233589
Total Pages : 204 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (32 download)
Download or read book Scenario Planning - Revised and Updated written by Mats Lindgren and published by Springer. This book was released on 2009-03-31 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent research in the field of business strategy has shown that strategic flexibility can be achieved through a scenario planning perspective for long-term competition and performance. The authors have drawn upon examples and case studies to develop a new model for scenario planning that is closely integrated with strategy and innovation.
Author : James A. Ogilvy
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780195146110
Total Pages : 278 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (461 download)
Download or read book Creating Better Futures written by James A. Ogilvy and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2002-04-11 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Presents a vision of how the world is changing, and how it can be changed for the better. Argues that self-defined communities, rather than individuals or governments, have become the primary agents for social change. Shows how to apply scenario planning to create better communities: better health, better education, better lives.
Author :
Publisher : Strategic Studies Institute
ISBN 13 : 158487452X
Total Pages : 211 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (848 download)
Download or read book Project on National Security Reform written by and published by Strategic Studies Institute. This book was released on 2010 with total page 211 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Project on National Security Reform submitted its 2-year study of the national security system, Forging a New Shield, to the President, President-elect, and Congress on November 26, 2008. Before the Project finalized the report's recommendations, its Vision Working Group tested the findings against a diverse set of scenarios to determine if the recommendations were robust and effective. This volume documents the scenario-testing process used by the Vision Working Group and includes the actual pre-reform and post-reform scenarios and details many other scenario techniques used in the overall study. Results revealed that each of the five major findings improved the performance of the current national security system, but, on the whole, the findings concluded that the national security system was at risk of failure and needed serious reform. The work of the Vision Working Group has led to the formulation of an additional recommendation: The country must establish a mechanism to infuse greater foresight into the Executive Branch, and in particular the national security system. This proposed mechanism, named the Center for Strategic Analysis and Assessment, would exist and operate within the Executive Office of the President. This volume details the proposed architecture and operation of the Center.
Author : Richard Whittington
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0192573802
Total Pages : 336 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (925 download)
Download or read book Opening Strategy written by Richard Whittington and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2019-03-21 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Strategy is becoming more 'open' - more transparent and more inclusive. Opening Strategy tells the story of how corporate strategists and strategy consultants have worked since the middle of the last century to open up the strategy process. First strategic planning, then strategic management, and now 'open strategy' have all brought more people into the strategy process and provided more strategic information, for the benefit of both business and society at large. Informed by interviews with corporate strategists and consultants at leading firms such as General Electric and McKinsey & Co, and drawing on the historical archives of strategy's pioneers, this book provides vivid insights into the trials and tribulations of practice change in the strategy profession. Above all, it stresses the hard work of the little recognized and sometimes eccentric individuals who have been leaders in practice change. By building on a wide range of illustrations, covering both successes and failures, the book draws out general lessons for practice innovation in strategy. Those studying the topic will be able to set standard strategy techniques in historical and social context and develop new areas for investigation, while practising executives and consultants should gain a sense of how to innovate in strategy - and how not to.
Author : Gill Ringland
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 506 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)
Download or read book Scenario Planning written by Gill Ringland and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-03-16 with total page 506 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This text provides a straightforward account of scenario planning making this important area accessible to business decision makers, as well as corporate planners.
Author : Burkhard Schwenker
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3658028750
Total Pages : 219 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (58 download)
Download or read book Scenario-based Strategic Planning written by Burkhard Schwenker and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-05 with total page 219 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a world characterized by increasing complexity and volatility, managers must be able to flexibly adapt their strategies to changing environmental conditions. Traditional strategic management frameworks often fail in this context. Therefore, we present "scenario-based strategic planning" as a framework for strategic management in an uncertain world. Previous approaches to scenario planning were complex and focused on the long term, but the approach developed by Roland Berger and the Center for Strategy and Scenario Planning at HHL Leipzig Graduate School of Management is different. By designing appropriate tools and integrating scenario planning into strategic planning, we have made our approach less complex and easier for firms to apply. We illustrate the approach with examples from different industries.
