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The Confidence Effects Of Fiscal Consolidations
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Book Synopsis The Confidence Effects of Fiscal Consolidations by : Roel M. W. J. Beetsma
Download or read book The Confidence Effects of Fiscal Consolidations written by Roel M. W. J. Beetsma and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We explore how fiscal consolidations affect private sector confidence, a possible channel for the fiscal transmission that has received particular attention recently as a result of governments embarking on austerity trajectories in the aftermath of the crisis. Panel regressions based on the action-based datasets of De Vries et al. (2011) and Alesina et al. (2014) show that consolidations, and in particular their unanticipated components affect confidence negatively. The effects are stronger for revenue-based measures and when institutional arrangements, such as fiscal rules, are weak. To obtain a more accurate picture of how consolidations affect confidence, we construct a monthly dataset of consolidation announcements based on the aforementioned datasets, so that we can study the confidence effects in real time using an event study. Consumer confidence falls around announcements of consolidation measures, an effect driven by revenue-based measures. Moreover, the effects are most relevant for European countries with weak institutional arrangements, as measured by the tightness of fiscal rules or budgetary transparency. The effects on producer confidence are generally similar, but weaker than for consumer confidence. Long-term interest rates, as a measure of confidence in the sovereign, tend to fall around spending-based consolidation announcements that take place in slump periods. Overall, if confidence is a concern and consolidation is unavoidable, spending-based measures seem preferable. Slump periods are not necessarily bad moments for such measures, while strengthening institutional arrangements may help in mitigating adverse confidence effects.
Book Synopsis The Rewards of Fiscal Consolidation: Sovereign Spreads and Confidence Effects by : Mr.Antonio David
Download or read book The Rewards of Fiscal Consolidation: Sovereign Spreads and Confidence Effects written by Mr.Antonio David and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-07-02 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the effects of fiscal consolidation announcements on sovereign spreads in a panel of 21 emerging market economies during 2000-18. We construct a novel dataset using a global news database to identify the precise announcement date of fiscal consolidation actions. Our results show that sovereign spreads decline significantly following news that austerity measures have been approved by the legislature (congress or parliament), in periods of high sovereign spreads or in countries under an IMF program. In addition, consolidation announcements are less contractionary when sovereign spreads decline, with the reduction in output being half of the counterfactual case in which spreads do not respond to announcements. These results constitute direct evidence that confidence effects, in the form of lower sovereign spreads, are an important transmission channel of fiscal shocks. We also find that the role of confidence effects increases with the level of spreads such that countries with high spread levels stand to benefit the most from putting in place credible austerity packages.
Book Synopsis The Impact of Fiscal Consolidations on Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa by : Francisco Arizala
Download or read book The Impact of Fiscal Consolidations on Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa written by Francisco Arizala and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-12-15 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the output effects of changes in public expenditure and revenue in sub-Saharan African countries during 1990–2016. Fiscal multipliers in sub-Saharan Africa are somewhat smaller than those in advanced and emerging economies. The effect of changes in fiscal policy on output depends on the composition: cutting public investment has a larger effect on output than cutting public consumption or raising revenue. Episodes of fiscal consolidation have short- and medium-term output effects, but here, too, composition matters: fiscal consolidations based on reducing public investment have the largest effect on output, while fiscal consolidations based on revenue mobilization are less harmful than those based on public investment cuts. These findings suggest that the negative impact on growth can be mitigated through the design of fiscal adjustment and the accompanying policy environment.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Rate and Base Changes: Evidence from Fiscal Consolidations by : Ms.Era Dabla-Norris
Download or read book Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Rate and Base Changes: Evidence from Fiscal Consolidations written by Ms.Era Dabla-Norris and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-10-01 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of tax changes during fiscal consolidations. We build a new narrative dataset of tax changes during fiscal consolidation years, containing detailed information on the expected revenue impact, motivation, and announcement and implementation dates of nearly 2,500 tax measures across 10 OECD countries. We analyze the macroeconomic impact of tax changes, distinguishing between tax rate and tax base changes, and further separating between changes in personal income, corporate income, and value added tax. Our results suggest that base broadening during fiscal consolidations leads to smaller output and employment declines compared to rate hikes, even when distinguishing between tax types.
Book Synopsis The Economic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation with Debt Feedback by : Mr.Marcello M. Estevão
Download or read book The Economic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation with Debt Feedback written by Mr.Marcello M. Estevão and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-05-31 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The past several years of recession and slow recovery have raised much interest on the effect of fiscal stimulus on economic activity, even as high public debts in many countries would call for fiscal consolidation. To evaluate the delicate balance between stimulus and consolidation requires measuring the size of fiscal multipliers, which often depends on having quarterly data so that exogenous fiscal policy shocks can be identified. We estimate fiscal multipliers using a novel methodology for identifying fiscal shocks within a structural vector autoregressive approach using annual data while controling for debt feedback effects. The estimation focuses on regions with scarce quarterly data (mostly low-income countries), and uses results for advanced economies, emerging market countries, and other broad groupings for which alternative estimates are available to validate the methodology. Differently from advanced and emerging market economies, fiscal consolidation in low-income countries has only a small temporary negative effect on growth while raising medium-term output. Shifting the composition of public spending toward capital expenditure further supports long-run growth.
Book Synopsis The (Subjective) Well-Being Cost of Fiscal Policy Shocks by : Kodjovi M. Eklou
Download or read book The (Subjective) Well-Being Cost of Fiscal Policy Shocks written by Kodjovi M. Eklou and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-01-17 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Do discretionary spending cuts and tax increases hurt social well-being? To answer this question, we combine subjective well-being data covering over half a million of individuals across 13 European countries, with macroeconomic data on fiscal consolidations. We find that fiscal consolidations reduce individual well-being in the short run, especially when they are based on spending cuts. In addition, we show that accompanying monetary and exchange rate policies (disinflation, depreciations and the liberalization of capital flows) mitigate the well-being cost of fiscal consolidations. Finally, we investigate the well-being consequences of the two well-knowns expansionary fiscal consolidations episodes taking place in the 80s (in Denmark and Ireland). We find that even expansionary fiscal consolidations can have well-being costs. Our results may therefore shed some light on why some governments may choose to consolidate through taxes even at the cost of economic growth. Indeed, if spending cuts are to generate a large well-being loss, they can trigger an opposition and protest against a fiscal consolidation plan and hence making it politically costly.
Book Synopsis Trimming the Sails by : István Benczes
Download or read book Trimming the Sails written by István Benczes and published by Central European University Press. This book was released on 2008-01-10 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book provides a clear, multidisciplinary and systematic analysis of the relatively new concept of the so-called expansionary fiscal consolidations. This concept suggests that fiscal adjustment should not be in trade-off with economic growth if certain conditions are met. But why do only a few countries and only at certain times experience the expansionary effects, while others not at all? The necessary institutional conditions and circumstances have been totally neglected in the literature, or analyzed only partially at best.
Book Synopsis The Output Effects of Fiscal Consolidations by : Alberto F. Alesina
Download or read book The Output Effects of Fiscal Consolidations written by Alberto F. Alesina and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Governments and Promised Fiscal Consolidations by : Mr.Sanjeev Gupta
Download or read book Governments and Promised Fiscal Consolidations written by Mr.Sanjeev Gupta and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-03-03 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyses the causes and consequences of fiscal consolidation promise gaps, defined as the distance between planned fiscal adjustments and actual consolidations. Using 74 consolidation episodes derived from the narrative approach in 17 advanced economies during 1978 – 2015, the paper shows that promise gaps were sizeable (about 0.3 percent of GDP per year, or 1.1 percent of GDP during an average fiscal adjustment episode). Both economic and political factors explain the gaps: for example, greater electoral proximity, stronger political cohesion and higher accountability were all associated with smaller promise gaps. Finally, governments which delivered on their fiscal consolidation plans were rewarded by financial markets and not penalized by voters.
Book Synopsis Medium-Term Fiscal Multipliers during Protracted Recessions by : Mr.Salvatore Dell'Erba
Download or read book Medium-Term Fiscal Multipliers during Protracted Recessions written by Mr.Salvatore Dell'Erba and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-05 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper examines the consequences of fiscal consolidation in times of persistently low growth and high unemployment by estimating medium-term fiscal multipliers during protracted recessions (PR) in a sample of 17 OECD countries. Based on Jorda’s (2005) local projection methodology, we find that cumulative fiscal multipliers related to output, employment and unemployment at five-year horizons are significantly above one during PR episodes. These results suggest that medium-term fiscal consolidation plans to reduce public debt burdens should proceed gradually if economic activity remains below trend for a prolonged period.
Book Synopsis The Distributional Effects of Fiscal Consolidation by : Laurence M. Ball
Download or read book The Distributional Effects of Fiscal Consolidation written by Laurence M. Ball and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-06-21 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the distributional effects of fiscal consolidation. Using episodes of fiscal consolidation for a sample of 17 OECD countries over the period 1978–2009, we find that fiscal consolidation has typically had significant distributional effects by raising inequality, decreasing wage income shares and increasing long-term unemployment. The evidence also suggests that spending-based adjustments have had, on average, larger distributional effects than tax-based adjustments.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Consolidation: Taking Stock of Success Factors, Impact, and Design by : Vybhavi Balasundharam
Download or read book Fiscal Consolidation: Taking Stock of Success Factors, Impact, and Design written by Vybhavi Balasundharam and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-03-17 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fiscal Consolidation: Taking Stock of Success Factors, Impact, and Design
Book Synopsis The Output Effect of Fiscal Consolidations by : Alberto Alesina
Download or read book The Output Effect of Fiscal Consolidations written by Alberto Alesina and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The present paper argues that the correct experiment to evaluate the effects of a fiscal adjustment is the simulation of fiscal plans rather than of individual fiscal shocks. The simulation of the fiscal plans adopted by 16 OECD countries over a 30-year period supports the hypothesis that the effects of consolidations depend on their design. Fiscal adjustments based upon spending cuts are much less costly, in terms of output losses, than tax-based ones. Fiscal adjustments have especially low output costs when they consist of permanent rather than stop and go. The difference cannot be explained by accompanying policies, including monetary policy, and appears to be mainly due to the different response of business confidence and private investment.
Book Synopsis Distributional Consequences of Fiscal Consolidation and the Role of Fiscal Policy by : Jaejoon Woo
Download or read book Distributional Consequences of Fiscal Consolidation and the Role of Fiscal Policy written by Jaejoon Woo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-09-17 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 2007-09 Great Recession has led to an unprecedented increase in public debt in many countries, triggering substantial fiscal adjustments. What are the distributional consequences of fiscal austerity measures? This is an important policy question. This paper analyzes the effects of fiscal policies on income inequality in a panel of advanced and emerging market economies over the last three decades, complemented by a case study of selected consolidation episodes. The paper shows that fiscal consolidations are likely to raise inequality through various channels including their effects on unemployment. Spending-based consolidations tend to worsen inequality more significantly, relative to tax-based consolidations. The composition of austerity measures also matters: progressive taxation and targeted social benefits and subsidies introduced in the context of a broader decline in spending can help offset some of the adverse distributional impact of consolidation. In addition, fiscal policy can favorably influence long-term trends in both inequality and growth by promoting education and training among low- and middle-income workers.
Book Synopsis The Impact of Fiscal Consolidation and Structural Reformson Growth in Japan by : Pelin Berkmen
Download or read book The Impact of Fiscal Consolidation and Structural Reformson Growth in Japan written by Pelin Berkmen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-01-01 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With Japan’s public debt reaching historical levels, the need for fiscal consolidation and structural reforms have increased. As fiscal consolidation will require a sustained and large adjustment in the fiscal balance, its growth effect is a concern particularly for the short run. This paper uses the IMF’s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model to analyze the growth impact of fiscal consolidation and structural reforms. Although fiscal consolidation has short-term costs, the potential long-term benefits are considerable, and reforms that raise potential growth could support consolidation. Simulations show that the external environment also matters but domestic policies should be the priority.
Book Synopsis Successful Austerity in the United States, Europe and Japan by : Nicoletta Batini
Download or read book Successful Austerity in the United States, Europe and Japan written by Nicoletta Batini and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-07-01 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The output effects of 2009 fiscal expansions have been hotly debated. But the discussion of fiscal multipliers is even more relevant now that several European countries have had to quickly retract their stimulus measures in an effort to regain market confidence. Using regime-switching VARs we estimate the impact of fiscal adjustment on the United States, Europe and Japan allowing for fiscal multipliers to vary across recessions and booms. We also estimate ex ante probabilities of recessions derived in association with different-sized and different types of consolidation shocks (expenditure- versus tax-based). We use these estimates to understand how consolidations should be designed to be most effective in terms of permanently and rapidly reducing a country’s debt-to-GDP ratio. The main finding is that smooth and gradual consolidations are to be preferred to frontloaded or aggressive consolidations, especially for economies in recession facing high risk premia on public debt, because sheltering growth is key to the success of fiscal consolidation in these cases.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis by : Alberto Alesina
Download or read book Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis written by Alberto Alesina and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-06-25 with total page 596 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent recession has brought fiscal policy back to the forefront, with economists and policy makers struggling to reach a consensus on highly political issues like tax rates and government spending. At the heart of the debate are fiscal multipliers, whose size and sensitivity determine the power of such policies to influence economic growth. Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis focuses on the effects of fiscal stimuli and increased government spending, with contributions that consider the measurement of the multiplier effect and its size. In the face of uncertainty over the sustainability of recent economic policies, further contributions to this volume discuss the merits of alternate means of debt reduction through decreased government spending or increased taxes. A final section examines how the short-term political forces driving fiscal policy might be balanced with aspects of the long-term planning governing monetary policy. A direct intervention in timely debates, Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis offers invaluable insights about various responses to the recent financial crisis.
