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The Comovements Between Real Activity And Prices At Different Business Cycle Frequencies
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Book Synopsis The Comovements Between Real Activity and Prices at Different Business Cycle Frequencies by : Wouter J. Den Haan
Download or read book The Comovements Between Real Activity and Prices at Different Business Cycle Frequencies written by Wouter J. Den Haan and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, I present two different methods that can be used to obtain a concise set of descriptive results about the comovement of variables. The statistics are easy to interpret and capture important information about the dynamics in the system that would be lost if one focused only on the unconditional correlation coefficient of detrended data. The methods do not require assumptions about the order of integration. That is, the methods can be used for stationary as well as integrated processes. They do not require the types of assumptions needed for VAR decompositions either. Both methods give similar results. In the postwar period, the comovement between output and prices is positive in the During the same period, the comovement between hours and real wages is negative in the that a model in which demand shocks dominate in the short run and supply shocks dominate in the long run can explain the empirical results, while standard sticky-price models with only demand shocks cannot.
Book Synopsis The Comovements Between Real Activity and Prices in the G7 by : Wouter J. Den Haan
Download or read book The Comovements Between Real Activity and Prices in the G7 written by Wouter J. Den Haan and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we study the short-run and long-run comovement between prices and real activity in the G7 countries during the postwar period using VAR forecast errors and frequency domain filters. We find that there are several patterns of the correlation coefficients that are the same in all countries. In particular, the correlation at the 'long-run' horizon is virtually always negative and the correlation at the 'short-run' horizon is typically substantially higher. Although there is evidence of positive 'short-run' correlations for some countries it is not very robust to the choice of the price and output variables. In addition, we propose a more efficient method to calculate the covariances of VAR forecast errors and - in contrast to claims made in the literature - we show that band-pass filters isolate the desired set of frequencies not only when the series are stationary but also when they are first or second-order integrated processes.
Book Synopsis Commodity Modeling and Pricing by : Peter V. Schaeffer
Download or read book Commodity Modeling and Pricing written by Peter V. Schaeffer and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-12-03 with total page 442 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodity Modeling and Pricing provides extensions and applications of state-of-the-art methods for analyzing resource commodity behavior. Drawing from the seminal work of Professor Walter Labys on the development of econometric methods for forecasting commodity prices, this collection of essays features expert contributors ranging from practitioners in private industry, public sector, and nongovernmental organizations to scholars in higher education–all of whom were Labys's former students or collaborators. Filled with in-depth insights and expert advice, Commodity Modeling and Pricing contains the information you need to excel in this demanding environment.
Book Synopsis Commodity Prices and Markets by : Takatoshi Ito
Download or read book Commodity Prices and Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2011-03 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.
Book Synopsis The Comovement in Commodity Prices by : Mr.Ron Alquist
Download or read book The Comovement in Commodity Prices written by Mr.Ron Alquist and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-06-05 with total page 63 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We present a simple macroeconomic model with a continuum of primary commodities used in the production of the final good, such that the real prices of commodities have a factor structure. One factor captures the combined contribution of all aggregate shocks which have no direct effects on commodity markets other than through general equilibrium effects on output, while other factors represent direct commodity shocks. Thus, the factor structure provides a decomposition of underlying structural shocks. The theory also provides guidance on how empirical factors can be rotated to identify the structural factors. We apply factor analysis and the identification conditions implied by the model to a cross-section of real non-energy commodity prices. The theoretical restrictions implied by the model are consistent with the data and thus yield a structural interpretation of the common factors in commodity prices. The analysis suggests that commodity-related shocks have generally played a limited role in global business cycle fluctuations.
Book Synopsis Short and Long-run Integration by : Graciela Laura Kaminsky
Download or read book Short and Long-run Integration written by Graciela Laura Kaminsky and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2001 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Do controls on capital flows persistently isolate domestic markets from international markets? Or is the insulation they provide just ephemeral?
Book Synopsis The Causes of Business Cycles and the Cyclicality of Real Wages by : Charles A. Fleishman
Download or read book The Causes of Business Cycles and the Cyclicality of Real Wages written by Charles A. Fleishman and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Business Cycles by : Francis X. Diebold
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Francis X. Diebold and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2020-10-06 with total page 438 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the most sophisticated and up-to-date econometric analysis of business cycles now available. Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch have long been acknowledged as leading experts on business cycles. And here they present a highly integrative collection of their most important essays on the subject, along with a detailed introduction that draws together the book's principal themes and findings. Diebold and Rudebusch use the latest quantitative methods to address five principal questions about the measurement, modeling, and forecasting of business cycles. They ask whether business cycles have become more moderate in the postwar period, concluding that recessions have, in fact, been shorter and shallower. They consider whether economic expansions and contractions tend to die of "old age." Contrary to popular wisdom, they find little evidence that expansions become more fragile the longer they last, although they do find that contractions are increasingly likely to end as they age. The authors discuss the defining characteristics of business cycles, focusing on how economic variables move together and on the timing of the slow alternation between expansions and contractions. They explore the difficulties of distinguishing between long-term trends in the economy and cyclical fluctuations. And they examine how business cycles can be forecast, looking in particular at how to predict turning points in cycles, rather than merely the level of future economic activity. They show here that the index of leading economic indicators is a poor predictor of future economic activity, and consider what we can learn from other indicators, such as financial variables. Throughout, the authors make use of a variety of advanced econometric techniques, including nonparametric analysis, fractional integration, and regime-switching models. Business Cycles is crucial reading for policymakers, bankers, and business executives.
Download or read book Working Paper Series written by and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 632 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Business Cycles Since 1820 by : Trevor J. O. Dick
Download or read book Business Cycles Since 1820 written by Trevor J. O. Dick and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 1998 with total page 326 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Evaluates historical evidence, presents new empirical results, and suggests that the explanation of business cycle phenomena may in part depend on how historical data is interpreted. Some studies focus on the Great Depression of the 1930s, early and late 19th-century America, the UK before 1914, interwar Germany and Japan, Canada and the US during the Gold Standard era, and other events in economic history. Others illustrate employing both macro and micro data to investigate such topics as the Phillips curve and labor markets. The nine essays were developed from presentations at an economic history conference in Milan, Italy in September 1994. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR
Download or read book Three Cycles written by Alain N. Kabundi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-10-01 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the characteristics and comovement of cycles in house prices, credit, real activity and interest rates in advanced economies during the past 25 years, using a dynamic generalized factor model. House price cycles generally lead credit and business cycles over the long term, while in the short to medium term the relationship varies across countries. Interest rates tend to lag other cycles at all time horizons. While global factors are important, the U.S. business cycle, house price cycle and interest rate cycle generally lead the respective cycles in other countries over all time horizons, while the U.S. credit cycle leads mainly over the long term.
Book Synopsis Modeling and Forecasting Primary Commodity Prices by : Walter C. Labys
Download or read book Modeling and Forecasting Primary Commodity Prices written by Walter C. Labys and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2017-03-02 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent economic growth in China and other Asian countries has led to increased commodity demand which has caused price rises and accompanying price fluctuations not only for crude oil but also for the many other raw materials. Such trends mean that world commodity markets are once again under intense scrutiny. This book provides new insights into the modeling and forecasting of primary commodity prices by featuring comprehensive applications of the most recent methods of statistical time series analysis. The latter utilize econometric methods concerned with structural breaks, unobserved components, chaotic discovery, long memory, heteroskedasticity, wavelet estimation and fractional integration. Relevant tests employed include neural networks, correlation dimensions, Lyapunov exponents, fractional integration and rescaled range. The price forecasting involves structural time series trend plus cycle and cyclical trend models. Practical applications focus on the price behaviour of more than twenty international commodity markets.
Book Synopsis Building the Financial Foundations of the Euro by : Max Watson
Download or read book Building the Financial Foundations of the Euro written by Max Watson and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 807 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First Published in 2008. With contributions from a range of leading experts in this rapidly changing field, the book will be of particular value to economists, national and international institutes, banks and other financial institutions and the academic world. For ease of reference, the text is supported with charts and table, and there is a complete index.
Book Synopsis The American Business Cycle by : Robert J. Gordon
Download or read book The American Business Cycle written by Robert J. Gordon and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 882 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades the American economy has experienced the worst peace-time inflation in its history and the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression. These circumstances have prompted renewed interest in the concept of business cycles, which Joseph Schumpeter suggested are "like the beat of the heart, of the essence of the organism that displays them." In The American Business Cycle, some of the most prominent macroeconomics in the United States focuses on the questions, To what extent are business cycles propelled by external shocks? How have post-1946 cycles differed from earlier cycles? And, what are the major factors that contribute to business cycles? They extend their investigation in some areas as far back as 1875 to afford a deeper understanding of both economic history and the most recent economic fluctuations. Seven papers address specific aspects of economic activity: consumption, investment, inventory change, fiscal policy, monetary behavior, open economy, and the labor market. Five papers focus on aggregate economic activity. In a number of cases, the papers present findings that challenge widely accepted models and assumptions. In addition to its substantive findings, The American Business Cycle includes an appendix containing both the first published history of the NBER business-cycle dating chronology and many previously unpublished historical data series.
Book Synopsis Convergence or Divergence in Europe? by : Olivier de Bandt
Download or read book Convergence or Divergence in Europe? written by Olivier de Bandt and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-09-28 with total page 379 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Against the background of the introduction of the Euro in 1999, France, Germany and Italy have recently experienced higher divergence in terms of GDP growth. Based on a set of original papers produced by a team of economists from the three main National Central Banks of the Euro area this book analyses the latest developments in three important European economies in a broad perspective, using modern econometric techniques.
Book Synopsis The Evolving Role of Asia In Global Finance by : Yin-Wong Cheung
Download or read book The Evolving Role of Asia In Global Finance written by Yin-Wong Cheung and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2011-03-10 with total page 447 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The process of Asia's rise to a position of eminence in global finance has accelerated in the wake of the international financial crisis. This volume intends to explore and understand the dynamics created by this process of transition.
