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The Chilean Output Gap
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Book Synopsis The Chilean Output Gap by : Leandro Medina
Download or read book The Chilean Output Gap written by Leandro Medina and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-01-01 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates the potential output (and the output gap) in Chile using several different methodologies. After a structural brake in 1998, the average growth rate of potential output in Chile declined from over 7 percent to 3-4 percent in the aggregate economy, but to less than 2 percent in the natural resource sector. The contributions to aggregate potential output growth of the natural resource sector and the non-natural resource sector are estimated, finding that the contribution to growth of the natural resource sector is non-linear-increasing during the 1990s, declining during the 2000s, and turning negative in the mid-2000s-despite the monotonic decrease in the share of natural resource output in aggregate output.
Book Synopsis Estimating Gaps and Trends for the Chilean Economy by : Gabriela Contreras M.
Download or read book Estimating Gaps and Trends for the Chilean Economy written by Gabriela Contreras M. and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Copper and the Chilean Economy, 1960–98 by : Mr.Antonio Spilimbergo
Download or read book Copper and the Chilean Economy, 1960–98 written by Mr.Antonio Spilimbergo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-04-01 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper concludes that world copper prices play an important role in short-term fluctuations and probably influence long-term growth of the Chilean economy. While many mechanisms may be at work, investment seems to play a major role. In a copper price boom, the higher copper price and associated capital inflows create upward pressure on the real exchange rate. The appreciation of the Chilean peso during the first part of the copper cycle contributes to lower inflation, which could partly explain why real wages grow more rapidly in this part of the cycle.
Book Synopsis Outside the Band by : Mrs.Esther Perez Ruiz
Download or read book Outside the Band written by Mrs.Esther Perez Ruiz and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-07 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines inflation dynamics in Chile during the last peso depreciation episode 2013-15. The evidence is for substantial pass-through effects to inflation, given the large and persistent depreciation movement. Widespread indexation practices in non-traded goods markets are found to amplify the inflation response to the depreciation, while the role of wage indexation is less relevant to the inflation dynamics. Overall, inflation would have remained within the central bank’s target band absent the peso depreciation. The analysis also shows that tightening monetary policy in response to a depreciation shock can be costly in terms of output: the response of activity to rates is found to be strong, while the transmission from activity to inflation is found to be weak. Simulations under uncertainty about the extent of the pass-through also suggest that monetary policy can play a countercyclical role in the face of depreciation shocks at a moderate inflationary cost, as long as inflation expectations remain anchored.
Book Synopsis Potential Output Growth in Emerging Market Countries by : Mr.Jorge Roldos
Download or read book Potential Output Growth in Emerging Market Countries written by Mr.Jorge Roldos and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-09-01 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates potential output and the sources of growth in Chile during 1970-96. Actual output is cointegrated with the quality-adjusted measures of capital and labor, and constant returns to scale cannot be rejected. The estimates of potential output show a positive output gap in the years when the Chilean economy was deemed to be overheated. In 1986-90, the quality-adjusted labor variable explains close to 60 percent of the growth rate of GDP, while during 1991-95 capital formation plays a dominant role. The contribution of TFP growth in Chile is relatively small, but, based on a comparison with European and East Asian experiences, it is expected to increase in the medium term.
Book Synopsis Chile by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Chile written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-09-29 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Chile’s economy has withstood successfully two consecutive large negative shocks—the global financial crisis and the February 2010 earthquake. The financial system has weathered the crisis well and the cyclical deterioration of credit quality has been moderate. Large-scale private and public reconstruction spending should continue to boost growth. The authorities’ intentions to enhance the supervision of the financial sector, including the planned move toward consolidated supervision of financial conglomerates, are encouraged. The prudential framework is strengthened by adopting a functional approach to regulation and supervision.
Book Synopsis How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe? by : Mr.Alvar Kangur
Download or read book How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe? written by Mr.Alvar Kangur and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-09-20 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the properties of the IMF-WEO estimates of real-time output gaps for countries in the euro area as well as the determinants of their revisions over 1994-2017. The analysis shows that staff typically saw economies as operating below their potential. In real time, output gaps tend to have large and negative averages that are largely revised away in later vintages. Most of the mis-measurement in real time can be explained by the difficulty in predicting recessions and by overestimation of the economy’s potential capacity. We also find, in line with earlier literature, that real-time output gaps are not useful for predicting inflation. In addition, countries where slack (and potential growth) is overestimated to a larger extent primary fiscal balances tend to be lower and public debt ratios are higher and increase faster than projected. Previous research suggests that national authorities’ real-time output gaps suffer from a similar bias. To the extent these estimates play a role in calibrating fiscal policy, over-optimism about long-term growth could contribute to excessive deficits and debt buildup.
Book Synopsis Estimating Potential Output in Chile by : Patrick Blagrave
Download or read book Estimating Potential Output in Chile written by Patrick Blagrave and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-10-14 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a multivariate filter, we estimate potential growth rates in Chile’s mining and non-mining sectors. Estimates for the mining sector incorporate information on copper prices, whereas estimates for non-mining reflect information on inflation and unemployment rates. To better understand the drivers of potential growth, we decompose estimates into capital, labor (adjusted for human-capital and hours worked), and total-factor productivity using a production-function. Our estimates of potential output in Chile suggest that an important part of the recent growth slowdown has been structural, with potential-output growth slowing to 21⁄2 percent in recent years, although it plausibly could be higher in the medium-term.
Book Synopsis Victims of the Chilean Miracle by : Peter Winn
Download or read book Victims of the Chilean Miracle written by Peter Winn and published by Duke University Press. This book was released on 2004-07-20 with total page 443 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Chile was the first major Latin American nation to carry out a complete neoliberal transformation. Its policies—encouraging foreign investment, privatizing public sector companies and services, lowering trade barriers, reducing the size of the state, and embracing the market as a regulator of both the economy and society—produced an economic boom that some have hailed as a “miracle” to be emulated by other Latin American countries. But how have Chile’s millions of workers, whose hard labor and long hours have made the miracle possible, fared under this program? Through empirically grounded historical case studies, this volume examines the human underside of the Chilean economy over the past three decades, delineating the harsh inequities that persist in spite of growth, low inflation, and some decrease in poverty and unemployment. Implemented in the 1970s at the point of the bayonet and in the shadow of the torture chamber, the neoliberal policies of Augusto Pinochet’s dictatorship reversed many of the gains in wages, benefits, and working conditions that Chile’s workers had won during decades of struggle and triggered a severe economic crisis. Later refined and softened, Pinochet’s neoliberal model began, finally, to promote economic growth in the mid-1980s, and it was maintained by the center-left governments that followed the restoration of democracy in 1990. Yet, despite significant increases in worker productivity, real wages stagnated, the expected restoration of labor rights faltered, and gaps in income distribution continued to widen. To shed light on this history and these ongoing problems, the contributors look at industries long part of the Chilean economy—including textiles and copper—and industries that have expanded more recently—including fishing, forestry, and agriculture. They not only show how neoliberalism has affected Chile’s labor force in general but also how it has damaged the environment and imposed special burdens on women. Painting a sobering picture of the two Chiles—one increasingly rich, the other still mired in poverty—these essays suggest that the Chilean miracle may not be as miraculous as it seems. Contributors. Paul Drake Volker Frank Thomas Klubock Rachel Schurman Joel Stillerman Heidi Tinsman Peter Winn
Book Synopsis Assessing Chile's Pension System: Challenges and Reform Options by : Samuel Pienknagura
Download or read book Assessing Chile's Pension System: Challenges and Reform Options written by Samuel Pienknagura and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-09-10 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Chile’s pension system came under close scrutiny in recent years. This paper takes stock of the adequacy of the system and highlights its challenges. Chile’s defined contribution system was quite influential when introduced, and was taken as an example by other countries. However, it is now delivering low replacement rates relative to OECD peers, as its parameters did not adapt over time to changing demographics and global returns, while informality persists in the labor market. In the absence of reforms, the system’s inability to deliver adequate outcomes for a large share of participants will continue to magnify, as demographic trends and low global interest rates will continue to reduce replacement rates. In addition, recent legislation allowing for pension savings withdrawals to counter the effects from the COVID-19 pandemic, is projected to further reduce replacement rates and increase fiscal costs. A substantial improvement in replacement rates is feasible, via a reform that raises contribution rates and the retirement age, coupled with policies that increases workers’ contribution density.
Book Synopsis General Equilibrium Models for the Chilean Economy by : Rómulo Chumacero Escudero
Download or read book General Equilibrium Models for the Chilean Economy written by Rómulo Chumacero Escudero and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 460 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Has Latin American Inequality Changed Direction? by : Luis Bértola
Download or read book Has Latin American Inequality Changed Direction? written by Luis Bértola and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-01-25 with total page 419 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. This book brings together a range of ideas and theories to arrive at a deeper understanding of inequality in Latin America and its complex realities. To so, it addresses questions such as: What are the origins of inequality in Latin America? How can we create societies that are more equal in terms of income distribution, gender equality and opportunities? How can we remedy the social divide that is making Latin America one of the most unequal regions on earth? What are the roles played by market forces, institutions and ideology in terms of inequality? In this book, a group of global experts gathered by the Institute for the Integration of Latin America and the Caribbean (INTAL), part of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), show readers how various types of inequality, such as economical, educational, racial and gender inequality have been practiced in countries like Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Mexico and many others through the centuries. Presenting new ideas, new evidence, and new methods, the book subsequently analyzes how to move forward with second-generation reforms that lay the foundations for more egalitarian societies. As such, it offers a valuable and insightful guide for development economists, historians and Latin American specialists alike, as well as students, educators, policymakers and all citizens with an interest in development, inequality and the Latin American region.
Book Synopsis Measuring the Potential Output of South Africa by : Nir Klein
Download or read book Measuring the Potential Output of South Africa written by Nir Klein and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-08-25 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides an assessment of the South African potential output for the period 1985-2010 by applying both structural and nonstructural estimation techniques. The analysis suggests that, while potential output growth steadily accelerated in the post-apartheid era to about 3 1/2 percent (1994-2008), it has decelerated considerably following the outbreak of the financial crisis, as was observed in other advanced and emerging economies. While this indicates that, at around -1 1/ 2 percent, the estimated 2010 output gap was lower than previously thought, there is a fair amount of uncertainty regarding its "true" magnitude, reflecting in part the backward looking nature of the estimation methods. The paper concludes that the potential growth is likely to gradually revert to its precrisis pace and the output gap to have closed by early 2012.
Book Synopsis Understanding and Avoiding the Oil Curse in Resource-rich Arab Economies by : Ibrahim Elbadawi
Download or read book Understanding and Avoiding the Oil Curse in Resource-rich Arab Economies written by Ibrahim Elbadawi and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2016-07-14 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For over eighty years the Arab region has derived massive wealth from its natural resources, yet the region's economies remain little diversified, while the oil market is experiencing major structural shifts with the advent of shale gas. Moreover, the resource itself is eventually exhaustible. Under these conditions economic prosperity cannot be sustainable. The critical question is how can the countries of this region escape the 'oil curse'? In this volume, leading economists argue that the curse is not a predestined outcome but a result of weak institutions and bad governance. A variety of analytical perspectives and examination of various international case studies leads to the conclusion that natural resources can only spur economic development when combined with sound political institutions and effective economic governance. This volume, with its unique focus on the Arab region, will be an important reference for researchers and policymakers alike.
Book Synopsis Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets by : Mr.Donal McGettigan
Download or read book Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets written by Mr.Donal McGettigan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-05-03 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In contrast to advanced markets (AMs), procyclical monetary policy has been a problem for emerging markets (EMs), with macroeconomic policies amplifying economic upswings and deepening downturns. The stark difference in policy has not been subject to extensive study and this paper attempts to address the gap. Key findings, using a large sample of EMs over the past 50 years, are: (i) EMs have adopted increasingly countercyclical monetary policy over time, although large differences remain among EMs and policies became more procyclical during the recent crisis. (ii) Inflation targeting and better institutions have been key factors behind the move to countercyclicality. (iii) Only deep financial markets allow EMs with flexible exchange rate regimes turn countercyclical. (iv) More countercyclical policy is associated with far less volatile output. The economically meaningful impact of IT on monetary policy countercyclicality and output variability is another reason in its favor, over and above better inflation outcomes.
Book Synopsis Chile: A Role Model of Export Diversification Policies? by : Mr. Gonzalo Salinas
Download or read book Chile: A Role Model of Export Diversification Policies? written by Mr. Gonzalo Salinas and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-05-27 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Largely because of its vast copper reserves, Chile’s exports are highly concentrated on this low complexity product and this is often cited as a major drawback of its economic policy framework. However, its exogenous copper abundance conceals the country’s success in developing non-mineral and complex exports. This achievement is remarkable considering its remoteness from the large international economic centers, which limits its integration to global value chains. As suggested in this paper, this accomplishment reflects Chile’s strength in policy areas that foster non-mineral exports (including complex exports), making the country a role model in export diversification and complexity policies among emerging market countries.
Book Synopsis Economic Reforms in Chile by : R. Ffrench-Davis
Download or read book Economic Reforms in Chile written by R. Ffrench-Davis and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-12-04 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides an in-depth analysis of neo-liberal and progressive economic reforms and policies implemented in Chile since the Pinochet dictatorship. The core thesis of the book is that there is not just 'one Chilean economic model', but that several have been in force since the coup of 1973.
