The Behavior of Real Interest Rates in Exchange-Rate Based Stabilization Programs

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451849664
Total Pages : 39 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis The Behavior of Real Interest Rates in Exchange-Rate Based Stabilization Programs by : Pierre-Richard Agénor

Download or read book The Behavior of Real Interest Rates in Exchange-Rate Based Stabilization Programs written by Pierre-Richard Agénor and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1994-06-01 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the behavior of real interest rates in exchange-rate based stabilization programs. The analysis is based on a model with imperfect capital mobility and optimizing agents. A permanent reduction in the devaluation rate is first shown to have an ambiguous effect on real interest rates on impact. The analysis is then extended to consider a stabilization program characterized by an initial reduction in the rate of devaluation of the nominal exchange rate, and the announcement of a future increase in income taxes. The impact effect on real interest rates is shown to depend upon the degree of credibility of the announcement. Real interest rates may fall if agents do not believe that taxes will be raised, and rise if the future tax reform is sufficiently credible.

The Behavior of Real Interest Rates in Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization Programs

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)

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Book Synopsis The Behavior of Real Interest Rates in Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization Programs by : Pierre-Richard Agenor

Download or read book The Behavior of Real Interest Rates in Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization Programs written by Pierre-Richard Agenor and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the behavior of real interest rates at the inception of exchange-rate-based stabilization programs. The analysis is based on an optimizing model of a small open economy facing imperfect world capital markets. A reduction in the devaluation rate is shown to have a positive impact on real interest rates. By contrast, a program characterized by an initial reduction in the devaluation rate and a perceived future increase in government spending has an ambiguous effect - which depends in particular on the degree of credibility of the fiscal policy stance.

Credibility and the Dynamics of Stabilization Policy

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451945582
Total Pages : 48 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (519 download)

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Book Synopsis Credibility and the Dynamics of Stabilization Policy by : Mr.Guillermo Calvo

Download or read book Credibility and the Dynamics of Stabilization Policy written by Mr.Guillermo Calvo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1990-11-01 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies price stabilization policy under both predetermined and flexible exchange rates. Under predetermined exchange rates, a non-credible stabilization program results in an initial expansion of output, followed by a later recession. The initial expansion accompanies an appreciating real exchange rate. Under flexible exchange rates, the recession occurs at the beginning of the program. The real exchange rate appreciates sharply on impact but depreciates afterwards. Lack of credibility is more costly under predetermined exchange rates because the real effects are more pronounced.

Exchange Rate Uncertainty in Money-Based Stabilization Programs

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451841876
Total Pages : 19 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Uncertainty in Money-Based Stabilization Programs by : Mr.R. Armando Morales

Download or read book Exchange Rate Uncertainty in Money-Based Stabilization Programs written by Mr.R. Armando Morales and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-01-01 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Complementing the explanation provided by Calvo and Vegh (1994) for money-based stabilization programs, exchange rate uncertainty introduced to a particular version of the portfolio approach with imperfect competition in the banking system leads to a bias toward appreciation that is directly related to the divergence of expectations and that dampens the interaction between portfolio movements and the real exchange rate. Based on Frankel-Froot, uncertainty exists when the fundamental equilibrium real exchange rate is temporarily unknown in a foreign exchange market with two types of agents: ‘parity-guessers,’ who expect a jump to a reference parity level, and ‘money-followers,’ who expect nominal depreciation equal to the monetary rule.

Credit and Exchange Rate-Based Stabilization

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 60 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis Credit and Exchange Rate-Based Stabilization by : May Khamis

Download or read book Credit and Exchange Rate-Based Stabilization written by May Khamis and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1996-05 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the behavior of private sector credit in chronic inflation countries that undergo exchange rate-based inflation stabilizations. It concludes that these programs are characterized by a strong increase in private sector credit, both in absolute terms and as a fraction of real economic activity. Empirical results using data for Mexico, Chile, Argentina, and Israel support a negative statistically significant relationship between credit and inflation for Mexico, Argentina, and Chile, but not for Israel. In addition, for both Chile and Mexico, dummy variables representing periods of inflation stabilization are positive and statistically different from zero indicating a stronger expansion in private sector credit during stabilization. These results could potentially explain the consumption boom that is usually present in the early stages of these programs.

Exchange Rate-Based Stabilization in Western Europe

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451849699
Total Pages : 30 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis Exchange Rate-Based Stabilization in Western Europe by : Ms.Enrica Detragiache

Download or read book Exchange Rate-Based Stabilization in Western Europe written by Ms.Enrica Detragiache and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-06-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper compares the experience with exchange-rate–based stabilization (ERBS) of four Western European countries with that of high-inflation developing countries. In general, the behavior of key macroeconomic variables—inflation, output, demand, the real exchange rate and the current account—in the four countries examined did not correspond to the pattern observed in developing countries, although some resemblance to this pattern could be found in Italy in 1987–92 and Greece in 1994–96. The experience with ERBS in Western Europe highlights the importance of incomes policy as an ingredient of a successful stabilization program and shows that the adoption of a looser anchor does not necessarily reduce the output cost of disinflation.

Sticky Inflation and the Real Effects of Exchange Rate Based Stabilization

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 40 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis Sticky Inflation and the Real Effects of Exchange Rate Based Stabilization by : Oya Celasun

Download or read book Sticky Inflation and the Real Effects of Exchange Rate Based Stabilization written by Oya Celasun and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-07 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Exchange rate-based inflation stabilization (ERBS) policies are associated with a boom-recession cycle in economic activity and sustained real exchange rate appreciation. A class of models in the literature has explained these empirical regularities with the lack of credibility of the stabilization plans. The lack-of-credibility models typically assume perfectly forward-looking pricing behavior without inflation stickiness and attribute the slow decline in inflation to the consumption boom that occurs due to the perceived temporariness of the ERBS policy. This paper tests the empirical validity of forward-looking pricing behavior in Mexico and Turkey, two countries which have experienced ERBS. It finds that the forward- and backward-looking components of inflation weigh approximately equally in pricing behavior, and therefore, that inflation is partially sticky. The paper then develops the theoretical implications of partial inflation stickiness in a lack of credibility model of ERBS and concludes that the presence of stickiness significantly reduces the persistence of the consumption boom predicted by the model, but helps to explain the recession in the late phase of the stabilization.

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995

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Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262522052
Total Pages : 364 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (22 download)

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Book Synopsis NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995 by : Ben S. Bernanke

Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995 written by Ben S. Bernanke and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1996 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Contents : Wage Inequality and Regional Unemployment Persistence: U.S. vs. Europe, Guiseppe BErtola and Andreas Ichino. Capital Utilization and Returns to Scale, Craig Burnside, Martin Eichenbaum, and Sergio Rebelo. Banks and Derivatives, Gary Gorton and Richard Rosen. Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilizations: Theory and Evidence, Sergio Rebelo and Carlos Vegh. Inflation Indicators and Inflation Policy, Stephen Cecchetti. Recent Central Bank Reforms and the Role of Price Stability as the Sole Objective of Monetary Policy, Carl Walsh. Is Central Bank Independence (and Low Inflation) the Result of Effective Financial Opposition to Inflation?, Adam Posen. The Unending Quest for Monetary Salvation, Stanley Fischer.

Stopping High Inflation

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 74 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis Stopping High Inflation by : Carlos A. Végh Gramont

Download or read book Stopping High Inflation written by Carlos A. Végh Gramont and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-11 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.

Development Macroeconomics

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Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 140086626X
Total Pages : 792 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Development Macroeconomics by : Pierre-Richard Agénor

Download or read book Development Macroeconomics written by Pierre-Richard Agénor and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2015-06-23 with total page 792 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global financial crisis triggered severe shocks for developing countries, whose embrace of greater commercial and financial openness has increased their exposure to external shocks, both real and financial. This new edition of Development Macroeconomics has been fully revised to address the more open and less stable environment in which developing countries operate today. Describing the latest advances in this rapidly changing field, the book features expanded coverage of public debt and the management of capital inflows as well as new material on fiscal discipline, monetary policy regimes, currency, banking and sovereign debt crises, currency unions, and the choice of an exchange-rate regime. A new chapter on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models with financial frictions has been added to reflect how the financial crisis has reshaped our thinking on the role of such frictions in generating and propagating real and financial shocks. The book also discusses the role of macroprudential regulation, both independently and through its interactions with monetary policy, in preserving financial and macroeconomic stability. Now in its fourth edition, Development Macroeconomics remains the definitive textbook on the macroeconomics of developing countries. The most authoritative book on the subject—now fully revised and expanded Features new material on fiscal discipline, monetary policy regimes, currency, banking and sovereign debt crises, and much more Comes with online supplements on informal financial markets, stabilization programs, the solution of DSGE models with financial frictions, and exchange rate crises

Working Paper Summaries (WP/94/1 - WP/94/76)

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451850956
Total Pages : 86 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis Working Paper Summaries (WP/94/1 - WP/94/76) by : International Monetary Fund

Download or read book Working Paper Summaries (WP/94/1 - WP/94/76) written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1994-08-01 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.

Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization under Imperfect Credibility

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451849915
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization under Imperfect Credibility by : Mr.Guillermo Calvo

Download or read book Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization under Imperfect Credibility written by Mr.Guillermo Calvo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-08-01 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes stabilization policy under predetermined exchange rates in a cash-in-advance, staggered-prices model. Under full credibility, a reduction in the rate of devaluation results in an immediate and permanent reduction in the inflation rate, with no effect on output or consumption. In contrast, a non-credible stabilization results in an initial expansion of output, followed by a later recession. The inflation rate of home goods remains above the rate of devaluation throughout the program, thus resulting in a sustained real exchange rate appreciation.

The Business Cycle Associated with Exchange-rate-based Stabilization

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Author :
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 59 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis The Business Cycle Associated with Exchange-rate-based Stabilization by : Miguel Alberto Kiguel

Download or read book The Business Cycle Associated with Exchange-rate-based Stabilization written by Miguel Alberto Kiguel and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1990 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Disinflation programs in chronic inflation countries do not normally follow the usual Phillips curve tradeoff in the medium run. Instead of having a sharp recession in the early stage of stabilization, there often is an initial expansion of output followed by a recession and balance of payments difficulties. This pattern is related to programs that use the exchange rate as an instrument of disinflation.

The Turkish Economy in Crisis

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Author :
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135758670
Total Pages : 220 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (357 download)

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Book Synopsis The Turkish Economy in Crisis by : Ziya Onis

Download or read book The Turkish Economy in Crisis written by Ziya Onis and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2004-08-02 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a set of critical perspectives on the economic crises of 2000 and 2001 focusing on both the origins and consequences of the crises. Attention is drawn to the role of domestic actors as well as key external actors such as the International Monetary Fund in precipitating the twin crises.

Disinflation and the Supply Side

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Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 4060532525
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (65 download)

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Book Synopsis Disinflation and the Supply Side by : Pierre-Richard Agénor

Download or read book Disinflation and the Supply Side written by Pierre-Richard Agénor and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2000 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What role do supply-side factors play in the dynamics of output and absorption in exchange rate-based stabilization programs?

Sticky Inflation and the Real Effects of Exchange Rate Based Stabilization

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451857055
Total Pages : 35 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis Sticky Inflation and the Real Effects of Exchange Rate Based Stabilization by : Oya Celasun

Download or read book Sticky Inflation and the Real Effects of Exchange Rate Based Stabilization written by Oya Celasun and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-07-01 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Exchange rate-based inflation stabilization (ERBS) policies are associated with a boom-recession cycle in economic activity and sustained real exchange rate appreciation. A class of models in the literature has explained these empirical regularities with the lack of credibility of the stabilization plans. The lack-of-credibility models typically assume perfectly forward-looking pricing behavior without inflation stickiness and attribute the slow decline in inflation to the consumption boom that occurs due to the perceived temporariness of the ERBS policy. This paper tests the empirical validity of forward-looking pricing behavior in Mexico and Turkey, two countries which have experienced ERBS. It finds that the forward- and backward-looking components of inflation weigh approximately equally in pricing behavior, and therefore, that inflation is partially sticky. The paper then develops the theoretical implications of partial inflation stickiness in a lack of credibility model of ERBS and concludes that the presence of stickiness significantly reduces the persistence of the consumption boom predicted by the model, but helps to explain the recession in the late phase of the stabilization.

Foreign Exchange Intervention Rules for Central Banks: A Risk-based Framework

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513569406
Total Pages : 33 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Foreign Exchange Intervention Rules for Central Banks: A Risk-based Framework by : Romain Lafarguette

Download or read book Foreign Exchange Intervention Rules for Central Banks: A Risk-based Framework written by Romain Lafarguette and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-02-12 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a rule for foreign exchange interventions (FXI), designed to preserve financial stability in floating exchange rate arrangements. The FXI rule addresses a market failure: the absence of hedging solution for tail exchange rate risk in the market (i.e. high volatility). Market impairment or overshoot of exchange rate between two equilibria could generate high volatility and threaten financial stability due to unhedged exposure to exchange rate risk in the economy. The rule uses the concept of Value at Risk (VaR) to define FXI triggers. While it provides to the market a hedge against tail risk, the rule allows the exchange rate to smoothly adjust to new equilibria. In addition, the rule is budget neutral over the medium term, encourages a prudent risk management in the market, and is more resilient to speculative attacks than other rules, such as fixed-volatility rules. The empirical methodology is backtested on Banco Mexico’s FXIs data between 2008 and 2016.