The Art Of Causal Conjecture

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The Art of Causal Conjecture

Author : Glenn Shafer
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262193689
Total Pages : 554 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (936 download)

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Book Synopsis The Art of Causal Conjecture by : Glenn Shafer

Download or read book The Art of Causal Conjecture written by Glenn Shafer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1996 with total page 554 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In The Art of Causal Conjecture, Glenn Shafer lays out a new mathematical and philosophical foundation for probability and uses it to explain concepts of causality used in statistics, artificial intelligence, and philosophy. The various disciplines that use causal reasoning differ in the relative weight they put on security and precision of knowledge as opposed to timeliness of action. The natural and social sciences seek high levels of certainty in the identification of causes and high levels of precision in the measurement of their effects. The practical sciences -- medicine, business, engineering, and artificial intelligence -- must act on causal conjectures based on more limited knowledge. Shafer's understanding of causality contributes to both of these uses of causal reasoning. His language for causal explanation can guide statistical investigation in the natural and social sciences, and it can also be used to formulate assumptions of causal uniformity needed for decision making in the practical sciences. Causal ideas permeate the use of probability and statistics in all branches of industry, commerce, government, and science. The Art of Causal Conjecture shows that causal ideas can be equally important in theory. It does not challenge the maxim that causation cannot be proven from statistics alone, but by bringing causal ideas into the foundations of probability, it allows causal conjectures to be more clearly quantified, debated, and confronted by statistical evidence.

Causal Models and Intelligent Data Management

Author : Alex Gammerman
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642586481
Total Pages : 193 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (425 download)

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Book Synopsis Causal Models and Intelligent Data Management by : Alex Gammerman

Download or read book Causal Models and Intelligent Data Management written by Alex Gammerman and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 193 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The need to electronically store, manipulate and analyze large-scale, high-dimensional data sets requires new computational methods. This book presents new intelligent data management methods and tools, including new results from the field of inference. Leading experts also map out future directions of intelligent data analysis. This book will be a valuable reference for researchers exploring the interdisciplinary area between statistics and computer science as well as for professionals applying advanced data analysis methods in industry.

Bayesian Nets and Causality: Philosophical and Computational Foundations

Author : Jon Williamson
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 019853079X
Total Pages : 250 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (985 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Nets and Causality: Philosophical and Computational Foundations by : Jon Williamson

Download or read book Bayesian Nets and Causality: Philosophical and Computational Foundations written by Jon Williamson and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2005 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian nets are used in artificial intelligence as a calculus for causal reasoning, enabling machines to make predictions perform diagnoses, take decisions and even to discover causal relationships. This book brings together how to automate reasoning in artificial intelligence, and the nature of causality and probability in philosophy.

Causal Learning

Author :
Publisher : Academic Press
ISBN 13 : 9780080863856
Total Pages : 442 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (638 download)

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Book Synopsis Causal Learning by :

Download or read book Causal Learning written by and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 1996-09-26 with total page 442 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Psychology of Learning and Motivation publishes empirical and theoretical contributions in cognitive and experimental psychology, ranging from classical and instrumental conditions to complex learning and problem solving. This guest-edited special volume is devoted to current research and discussion on associative versus cognitive accounts of learning. Written by major investigators in the field, topics include all aspects of causal learning in an open forum in which different approaches are brought together. Up-to-date review of the literature Discusses recent controversies Presents major advances in understanding causal learning Synthesizes contrasting approaches Includes important empirical contributions Written by leading researchers in the field

Actual Causality

Author : Joseph Y. Halpern
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262537133
Total Pages : 240 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (625 download)

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Book Synopsis Actual Causality by : Joseph Y. Halpern

Download or read book Actual Causality written by Joseph Y. Halpern and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-02-19 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A new approach for defining causality and such related notions as degree of responsibility, degrees of blame, and causal explanation. Causality plays a central role in the way people structure the world; we constantly seek causal explanations for our observations. But what does it even mean that an event C “actually caused” event E? The problem of defining actual causation goes beyond mere philosophical speculation. For example, in many legal arguments, it is precisely what needs to be established in order to determine responsibility. The philosophy literature has been struggling with the problem of defining causality since Hume. In this book, Joseph Halpern explores actual causality, and such related notions as degree of responsibility, degree of blame, and causal explanation. The goal is to arrive at a definition of causality that matches our natural language usage and is helpful, for example, to a jury deciding a legal case, a programmer looking for the line of code that cause some software to fail, or an economist trying to determine whether austerity caused a subsequent depression. Halpern applies and expands an approach to causality that he and Judea Pearl developed, based on structural equations. He carefully formulates a definition of causality, and building on this, defines degree of responsibility, degree of blame, and causal explanation. He concludes by discussing how these ideas can be applied to such practical problems as accountability and program verification. Technical details are generally confined to the final section of each chapter and can be skipped by non-mathematical readers.

Data Mining: Foundations and Practice

Author : Tsau Young Lin
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3540784888
Total Pages : 562 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (47 download)

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Book Synopsis Data Mining: Foundations and Practice by : Tsau Young Lin

Download or read book Data Mining: Foundations and Practice written by Tsau Young Lin and published by Springer. This book was released on 2008-08-17 with total page 562 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The IEEE ICDM 2004 workshop on the Foundation of Data Mining and the IEEE ICDM 2005 workshop on the Foundation of Semantic Oriented Data and Web Mining focused on topics ranging from the foundations of data mining to new data mining paradigms. The workshops brought together both data mining researchers and practitioners to discuss these two topics while seeking solutions to long standing data mining problems and stimul- ing new data mining research directions. We feel that the papers presented at these workshops may encourage the study of data mining as a scienti?c ?eld and spark new communications and collaborations between researchers and practitioners. Toexpressthevisionsforgedintheworkshopstoawiderangeofdatam- ing researchers and practitioners and foster active participation in the study of foundations of data mining, we edited this volume by involving extended and updated versions of selected papers presented at those workshops as well as some other relevant contributions. The content of this book includes st- ies of foundations of data mining from theoretical, practical, algorithmical, and managerial perspectives. The following is a brief summary of the papers contained in this book.

Causal Models

Author : Steven Sloman
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0199884749
Total Pages : 224 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (998 download)

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Book Synopsis Causal Models by : Steven Sloman

Download or read book Causal Models written by Steven Sloman and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2005-07-28 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Human beings are active agents who can think. To understand how thought serves action requires understanding how people conceive of the relation between cause and effect, between action and outcome. In cognitive terms, how do people construct and reason with the causal models we use to represent our world? A revolution is occurring in how statisticians, philosophers, and computer scientists answer this question. Those fields have ushered in new insights about causal models by thinking about how to represent causal structure mathematically, in a framework that uses graphs and probability theory to develop what are called causal Bayesian networks. The framework starts with the idea that the purpose of causal structure is to understand and predict the effects of intervention. How does intervening on one thing affect other things? This is not a question merely about probability (or logic), but about action. The framework offers a new understanding of mind: Thought is about the effects of intervention and cognition is thus intimately tied to actions that take place either in the actual physical world or in imagination, in counterfactual worlds. The book offers a conceptual introduction to the key mathematical ideas, presenting them in a non-technical way, focusing on the intuitions rather than the theorems. It tries to show why the ideas are important to understanding how people explain things and why thinking not only about the world as it is but the world as it could be is so central to human action. The book reviews the role of causality, causal models, and intervention in the basic human cognitive functions: decision making, reasoning, judgment, categorization, inductive inference, language, and learning. In short, the book offers a discussion about how people think, talk, learn, and explain things in causal terms, in terms of action and manipulation.

Causality

Author : Judea Pearl
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 052189560X
Total Pages : 487 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (218 download)

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Book Synopsis Causality by : Judea Pearl

Download or read book Causality written by Judea Pearl and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-09-14 with total page 487 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Causality offers the first comprehensive coverage of causal analysis in many sciences, including recent advances using graphical methods. Pearl presents a unified account of the probabilistic, manipulative, counterfactual and structural approaches to causation, and devises simple mathematical tools for analyzing the relationships between causal connections, statistical associations, actions and observations. The book will open the way for including causal analysis in the standard curriculum of statistics, artificial intelligence ...

Causal Analysis in Biomedicine and Epidemiology

Author : Mikel Aickin
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1482275775
Total Pages : 237 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (822 download)

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Book Synopsis Causal Analysis in Biomedicine and Epidemiology by : Mikel Aickin

Download or read book Causal Analysis in Biomedicine and Epidemiology written by Mikel Aickin and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2001-11-09 with total page 237 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Provides current models, tools, and examples for the formulation and evaluation of scientific hypotheses in causal terms. Introduces a new method of model parametritization. Illustrates structural equations and graphical elements for complex causal systems."

Causality from the Point of View of Statistics

Author : Jose A. Ferreira
Publisher : Wipf and Stock Publishers
ISBN 13 : 1666777080
Total Pages : 211 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (667 download)

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Book Synopsis Causality from the Point of View of Statistics by : Jose A. Ferreira

Download or read book Causality from the Point of View of Statistics written by Jose A. Ferreira and published by Wipf and Stock Publishers. This book was released on 2023-08-21 with total page 211 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most are familiar with the adage “correlation does not imply causation.” Since much of science is concerned with problems of causality and statistics is so widely used in research, one may wonder whether statistics possesses the tools to study such problems and contribute to their resolution. These were the questions posed over thirty years ago by Pearl, Robins, Rubin, Shafer, etc. when they set out to incorporate notions of causality into statistics theory and develop methods for estimating causal relationships. Since then, the schools of “statistical causality” they founded have produced interesting results and methods that help us think about causality and are potentially useful in real-life problems. Yet, despite its appeal, statistical causality is still disregarded by many “mainstream” statisticians, and its methods are not widely known. In part this is explained by the unorthodox and apparently disparate character of the various schools, in particular by the distinct languages they developed and that are not readily accessible. Thus, even some advanced researchers seemed startled by things like Rubin’s “counterfactuals” that in one guise or another appear in all theories but that seem potentially incompatible with Kolmogorov’s formalism, the very foundation of statistics. It turns out that statistical causality is firmly rooted in Kolmogorov’s axiomatization of probability as the elements required by it are essentially those proposed a century ago by Steinhaus, and, perhaps surprisingly, that statistics has always engaged with causality. The present book makes this plain, providing a basis for statistical causality that subsumes and reconciles the theories of all other schools and that to a mainstream statistician will appear entirely familiar and natural.

Bias and Causation

Author : Herbert I. Weisberg
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118058208
Total Pages : 268 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (18 download)

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Book Synopsis Bias and Causation by : Herbert I. Weisberg

Download or read book Bias and Causation written by Herbert I. Weisberg and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-01-06 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A one-of-a-kind resource on identifying and dealing with bias in statistical research on causal effects Do cell phones cause cancer? Can a new curriculum increase student achievement? Determining what the real causes of such problems are, and how powerful their effects may be, are central issues in research across various fields of study. Some researchers are highly skeptical of drawing causal conclusions except in tightly controlled randomized experiments, while others discount the threats posed by different sources of bias, even in less rigorous observational studies. Bias and Causation presents a complete treatment of the subject, organizing and clarifying the diverse types of biases into a conceptual framework. The book treats various sources of bias in comparative studies—both randomized and observational—and offers guidance on how they should be addressed by researchers. Utilizing a relatively simple mathematical approach, the author develops a theory of bias that outlines the essential nature of the problem and identifies the various sources of bias that are encountered in modern research. The book begins with an introduction to the study of causal inference and the related concepts and terminology. Next, an overview is provided of the methodological issues at the core of the difficulties posed by bias. Subsequent chapters explain the concepts of selection bias, confounding, intermediate causal factors, and information bias along with the distortion of a causal effect that can result when the exposure and/or the outcome is measured with error. The book concludes with a new classification of twenty general sources of bias and practical advice on how mathematical modeling and expert judgment can be combined to achieve the most credible causal conclusions. Throughout the book, examples from the fields of medicine, public policy, and education are incorporated into the presentation of various topics. In addition, six detailed case studies illustrate concrete examples of the significance of biases in everyday research. Requiring only a basic understanding of statistics and probability theory, Bias and Causation is an excellent supplement for courses on research methods and applied statistics at the upper-undergraduate and graduate level. It is also a valuable reference for practicing researchers and methodologists in various fields of study who work with statistical data. This book was selected as the 2011 Ziegel Prize Winner in Technometrics for the best book reviewed by the journal. It is also the winner of the 2010 PROSE Award for Mathematics from The American Publishers Awards for Professional and Scholarly Excellence

The Dynamics of Judicial Proof

Author : Marilyn MacCrimmon
Publisher : Physica
ISBN 13 : 3790817929
Total Pages : 491 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (98 download)

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Book Synopsis The Dynamics of Judicial Proof by : Marilyn MacCrimmon

Download or read book The Dynamics of Judicial Proof written by Marilyn MacCrimmon and published by Physica. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 491 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fact finding in judicial proceedings is a dynamic process. This collection of papers considers whether computational methods or other formal logical methods developed in disciplines such as artificial intelligence, decision theory, and probability theory can facilitate the study and management of dynamic evidentiary and inferential processes in litigation. The papers gathered here have several epicenters, including (i) the dynamics of judicial proof, (ii) the relationship between artificial intelligence or formal analysis and "common sense," (iii) the logic of factual inference, including (a) the relationship between causality and inference and (b) the relationship between language and factual inference, (iv) the logic of discovery, including the role of abduction and serendipity in the process of investigation and proof of factual matters, and (v) the relationship between decision and inference.

Latent Variable Modeling and Applications to Causality

Author : Maia Berkane
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 146121842X
Total Pages : 285 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (612 download)

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Book Synopsis Latent Variable Modeling and Applications to Causality by : Maia Berkane

Download or read book Latent Variable Modeling and Applications to Causality written by Maia Berkane and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 285 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume gathers refereed papers presented at the 1994 UCLA conference on "La tent Variable Modeling and Application to Causality. " The meeting was organized by the UCLA Interdivisional Program in Statistics with the purpose of bringing together a group of people who have done recent advanced work in this field. The papers in this volume are representative of a wide variety of disciplines in which the use of latent variable models is rapidly growing. The volume is divided into two broad sections. The first section covers Path Models and Causal Reasoning and the papers are innovations from contributors in disciplines not traditionally associated with behavioural sciences, (e. g. computer science with Judea Pearl and public health with James Robins). Also in this section are contri butions by Rod McDonald and Michael Sobel who have a more traditional approach to causal inference, generating from problems in behavioural sciences. The second section encompasses new approaches to questions of model selection with emphasis on factor analysis and time varying systems. Amemiya uses nonlinear factor analysis which has a higher order of complexity associated with the identifiability condi tions. Muthen studies longitudinal hierarchichal models with latent variables and treats the time vector as a variable rather than a level of hierarchy. Deleeuw extends exploratory factor analysis models by including time as a variable and allowing for discrete and ordi nal latent variables. Arminger looks at autoregressive structures and Bock treats factor analysis models for categorical data.

Causation, Prediction, and Search

Author : Peter Spirtes
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262527928
Total Pages : 569 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (625 download)

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Book Synopsis Causation, Prediction, and Search by : Peter Spirtes

Download or read book Causation, Prediction, and Search written by Peter Spirtes and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2001-01-29 with total page 569 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors address the assumptions and methods that allow us to turn observations into causal knowledge, and use even incomplete causal knowledge in planning and prediction to influence and control our environment. What assumptions and methods allow us to turn observations into causal knowledge, and how can even incomplete causal knowledge be used in planning and prediction to influence and control our environment? In this book Peter Spirtes, Clark Glymour, and Richard Scheines address these questions using the formalism of Bayes networks, with results that have been applied in diverse areas of research in the social, behavioral, and physical sciences. The authors show that although experimental and observational study designs may not always permit the same inferences, they are subject to uniform principles. They axiomatize the connection between causal structure and probabilistic independence, explore several varieties of causal indistinguishability, formulate a theory of manipulation, and develop asymptotically reliable procedures for searching over equivalence classes of causal models, including models of categorical data and structural equation models with and without latent variables. The authors show that the relationship between causality and probability can also help to clarify such diverse topics in statistics as the comparative power of experimentation versus observation, Simpson's paradox, errors in regression models, retrospective versus prospective sampling, and variable selection. The second edition contains a new introduction and an extensive survey of advances and applications that have appeared since the first edition was published in 1993.

Probabilistic and Causal Inference

Author : Hector Geffner
Publisher : Morgan & Claypool
ISBN 13 : 1450395899
Total Pages : 946 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (53 download)

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Book Synopsis Probabilistic and Causal Inference by : Hector Geffner

Download or read book Probabilistic and Causal Inference written by Hector Geffner and published by Morgan & Claypool. This book was released on 2022-03-10 with total page 946 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Professor Judea Pearl won the 2011 Turing Award “for fundamental contributions to artificial intelligence through the development of a calculus for probabilistic and causal reasoning.” This book contains the original articles that led to the award, as well as other seminal works, divided into four parts: heuristic search, probabilistic reasoning, causality, first period (1988–2001), and causality, recent period (2002–2020). Each of these parts starts with an introduction written by Judea Pearl. The volume also contains original, contributed articles by leading researchers that analyze, extend, or assess the influence of Pearl’s work in different fields: from AI, Machine Learning, and Statistics to Cognitive Science, Philosophy, and the Social Sciences. The first part of the volume includes a biography, a transcript of his Turing Award Lecture, two interviews, and a selected bibliography annotated by him.

Causation, Coherence and Concepts

Author : W. Spohn
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1402054742
Total Pages : 385 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Causation, Coherence and Concepts by : W. Spohn

Download or read book Causation, Coherence and Concepts written by W. Spohn and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-11-14 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this collection I present 16 of my, I feel, more substantial papers on theoretical philosophy, 12 as originally published, one co-authored with Ulrike Haas-Spohn (Chapter14), one (Chapter 15) that was a brief conference commentary, but is in fact a suitable appendix to Chapter 14, one as a translation of a German paper (Chapter 12), and one newly written for this volume (Chapter 16), which, however, is only my recent attempt to properly and completely express an argument I had given in two earlier papers. I gratefully acknowledge permission of reprint from the relevant publishers at the beginning of each paper. In disciplinary terms the papers cover epistemology, general philosophy of science, philosophy of language, and philosophy of mind. The section titles Belief, Causation, Laws, Coherence, and Concepts and the paper titles give a more adequate impression of the topics dealt with. The papers are tightly connected. I feel they might be even read as unfolding a program, though this program was never fully clear in my mind and still isn’t. In the Introduction I attempt to describe what this program might be, thus drawing a reconstructed red thread, or rather two red threads, through all the papers. This will serve, at the same time, as an overview over the papers collected.

A Guided Tour of Artificial Intelligence Research

Author : Pierre Marquis
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030061647
Total Pages : 808 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (3 download)

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Book Synopsis A Guided Tour of Artificial Intelligence Research by : Pierre Marquis

Download or read book A Guided Tour of Artificial Intelligence Research written by Pierre Marquis and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-05-08 with total page 808 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of this book is to provide an overview of AI research, ranging from basic work to interfaces and applications, with as much emphasis on results as on current issues. It is aimed at an audience of master students and Ph.D. students, and can be of interest as well for researchers and engineers who want to know more about AI. The book is split into three volumes: - the first volume brings together twenty-three chapters dealing with the foundations of knowledge representation and the formalization of reasoning and learning (Volume 1. Knowledge representation, reasoning and learning) - the second volume offers a view of AI, in fourteen chapters, from the side of the algorithms (Volume 2. AI Algorithms) - the third volume, composed of sixteen chapters, describes the main interfaces and applications of AI (Volume 3. Interfaces and applications of AI). Implementing reasoning or decision making processes requires an appropriate representation of the pieces of information to be exploited. This first volume starts with a historical chapter sketching the slow emergence of building blocks of AI along centuries. Then the volume provides an organized overview of different logical, numerical, or graphical representation formalisms able to handle incomplete information, rules having exceptions, probabilistic and possibilistic uncertainty (and beyond), as well as taxonomies, time, space, preferences, norms, causality, and even trust and emotions among agents. Different types of reasoning, beyond classical deduction, are surveyed including nonmonotonic reasoning, belief revision, updating, information fusion, reasoning based on similarity (case-based, interpolative, or analogical), as well as reasoning about actions, reasoning about ontologies (description logics), argumentation, and negotiation or persuasion between agents. Three chapters deal with decision making, be it multiple criteria, collective, or under uncertainty. Two chapters cover statistical computational learning and reinforcement learning (other machine learning topics are covered in Volume 2). Chapters on diagnosis and supervision, validation and explanation, and knowledge base acquisition complete the volume.