The Adjustment To Commodity Price Shocks In Chile Colombia And Peru

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The Adjustment to Commodity Price Shocks in Chile, Colombia, and Peru

Author : Mr.Francisco Roch
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484323882
Total Pages : 25 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis The Adjustment to Commodity Price Shocks in Chile, Colombia, and Peru by : Mr.Francisco Roch

Download or read book The Adjustment to Commodity Price Shocks in Chile, Colombia, and Peru written by Mr.Francisco Roch and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-09-29 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a comparative analysis of the macroeconomic adjustment in Chile, Colombia, and Peru to commodity terms-of-trade shocks. The study is done in two steps: (i) an analysis of the impulse responses of key macroeconomic variables to terms-of-trade shocks and (ii) an event study of the adjustment to the recent decline in commodity prices. The experiences of these countries highlight the importance of flexible exchange rates to help with the adjustment to lower commodity prices, and staying vigilant in addressing depreciation pressures on inflation through tightening monetary policies. On the fiscal front, evidence shows that greater fiscal space, like in Chile and Peru, gives more room for accommodating terms-of-trade shocks.

Peru

Author : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN 13 : 9781475582741
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (827 download)

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Book Synopsis Peru by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Download or read book Peru written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2016-07-15 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper presents a comparative analysis of the macroeconomic adjustment in Chile, Colombia, and Peru to commodity terms-of-trade shocks. The study is done in two steps: (1) an analysis of the impulse responses of key macroeconomic variables to terms-of-trade shocks and (2) an event study of the adjustment to the recent decline in commodity prices. The experiences of these countries highlight the importance of flexible exchange rates to help with the adjustment to lower commodity prices, and staying vigilant in addressing depreciation pressures on inflation through tightening monetary policies. On the fiscal front, evidence shows that greater fiscal space, like that of Chile and Peru, gives more room for accommodating terms-of-trade shocks.

Peru

Author : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475582749
Total Pages : 64 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Peru by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Download or read book Peru written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-07-15 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper presents a comparative analysis of the macroeconomic adjustment in Chile, Colombia, and Peru to commodity terms-of-trade shocks. The study is done in two steps: (1) an analysis of the impulse responses of key macroeconomic variables to terms-of-trade shocks and (2) an event study of the adjustment to the recent decline in commodity prices. The experiences of these countries highlight the importance of flexible exchange rates to help with the adjustment to lower commodity prices, and staying vigilant in addressing depreciation pressures on inflation through tightening monetary policies. On the fiscal front, evidence shows that greater fiscal space, like that of Chile and Peru, gives more room for accommodating terms-of-trade shocks.

The Dynamic Effects of Commodity Prices on Fiscal Performance in Latin America

Author : Leandro Medina
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1455202266
Total Pages : 29 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (552 download)

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Book Synopsis The Dynamic Effects of Commodity Prices on Fiscal Performance in Latin America by : Leandro Medina

Download or read book The Dynamic Effects of Commodity Prices on Fiscal Performance in Latin America written by Leandro Medina and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-08-01 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent boom and bust in commodity prices has raised concerns about the impact of volatile commodity prices on Latin American countries’ fiscal positions. Using a novel quarterly data set-which includes unique country-specific commodity price indices and a comprehensive measure of public expenditures-this paper analyzes the dynamic effects of commodity price fluctuations on fiscal revenues and expenditures for eight commodity-exporting Latin American countries. The results indicate that Latin American countries’ fiscal positions react strongly to shocks to commodity prices, yet there are marked differences across countries. Fiscal variables in Venezuela display the highest sensitivity to commodity price shocks, with expenditures reacting significantly more than revenues. At the other end of the spectrum, in Chile expenditure reacts very little to commodity price fluctuations, and the dynamic responses of its fiscal indicators are very similar to those seen in high-income commodity-exporting countries. This distinct behavior across countries may relate to institutional arrangements, which in some cases include the efficient application of fiscal rules amid political commitment and high standards of transparency.

Commodity Prices Shocks and the Balance Sheet Effect in Latin America

Author : Alejandro Torres
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Prices Shocks and the Balance Sheet Effect in Latin America by : Alejandro Torres

Download or read book Commodity Prices Shocks and the Balance Sheet Effect in Latin America written by Alejandro Torres and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Emerging market economies(EMEs), particularly the commodity exporterones,are exposed to world's dynamics through different channels. In this paper,we consider the role of (exogenous) commodity prices shocks in explaining business cycles in EMEs,by proposing a financial transmission mechanism: the balance sheet effect. Our hypothesis is that a negative commodity price shock increases the firm's external debt and the cost of the new debt. In consequence,the aggregate investment decreases amplifying the output contraction.To test it,we estimate a series of VAR models using quarterly data on corporate external debt, nominal exchange rate, EMBI spreads, the local currency value of external debt to nominal GDP ratio and real GDP,covering the period 2000-2017. We do this for Latin America and then, we focus on five particular economies: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. We find that balance sheets do matter and they exacerbate the output's contraction when the commodity price shock is negative. We also find that, turning the financial channel off, the real GDP cumulative response in Latin America is smaller than in the unrestricted model. Finally, we find no evidence on the existence of the balance sheet effect for Chile.

Commodity Prices and the Business Cycle in Latin America

Author : Maximo Camacho
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (139 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Prices and the Business Cycle in Latin America by : Maximo Camacho

Download or read book Commodity Prices and the Business Cycle in Latin America written by Maximo Camacho and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze the dynamic interactions between commodity prices and output growth of the seven greatest exporters Latin American countries: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela. Using a novel definition of Markov-switching impulse response functions, we find that the responses of their respective output growths to commodity price shocks are time dependent, size dependent and sign dependent. Overall, the major evidence of asymmetries in output growth responses occurs when commodity price shocks lead to regime shifts. Accordingly, we consider that the design of optimal counter-cyclical stabilization policies in this region should take into account that the reactions of the economic activity vary considerably across business cycle regimes.

Commodity Cycles, Inequality, and Poverty in Latin America

Author : Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484326091
Total Pages : 123 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Cycles, Inequality, and Poverty in Latin America by : Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan

Download or read book Commodity Cycles, Inequality, and Poverty in Latin America written by Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-04-26 with total page 123 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past decades, inequality has risen not just in advanced economies but also in many emerging market and developing economies, becoming one of the key global policy challenges. And throughout the 20th century, Latin America was associated with some of the world’s highest levels of inequality. Yet something interesting happened in the first decade and a half of the 21st century. Latin America was the only region in the World to have experienced significant declines in inequality in that period. Poverty also fell in Latin America, although this was replicated in other regions, and Latin America started from a relatively low base. Starting around 2014, however, and even before the COVID-19 pandemic hit, poverty and inequality gains had already slowed in Latin America and, in some cases, gone into reverse. And the COVID-19 shock, which is still playing out, is likely to dramatically worsen short-term poverty and inequality dynamics. Against this background, this departmental paper investigates the link between commodity prices, and poverty and inequality developments in Latin America.

Commodity Prices and the Business Cycle in Latin America

Author : Máximo Camacho
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (828 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Prices and the Business Cycle in Latin America by : Máximo Camacho

Download or read book Commodity Prices and the Business Cycle in Latin America written by Máximo Camacho and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation

Author : Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1616356154
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (163 download)

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Book Synopsis The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation by : Mr. Kangni R Kpodar

Download or read book The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation written by Mr. Kangni R Kpodar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-11-12 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.

Trinidad and Tobago

Author : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484378199
Total Pages : 23 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Trinidad and Tobago by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Download or read book Trinidad and Tobago written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-09-25 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper focuses on the impact of adjusting to commodity shocks in Trinidad and Tobago. With commodity resources being nonrenewable, developing a long-term strategy can help avoid unsustainable policies and ensure greater intergenerational equity. Recent country experiences highlight the benefits of precautionary buffers in smoothing fiscal adjustment process. Prudent and countercyclical fiscal policy implementation, structural reforms, and economic diversification can help contain the impact of commodity price booms and busts. Strong fiscal institutions are needed to help achieve and sustain the fiscal adjustment. Different adjustment strategies may be feasible depending on the needed size of the adjustment and country-specific circumstances. Trinidad and Tobago have faced several years of weak or negative growth on the back of terms-of-trade and energy supply shocks. A well-designed fiscal framework that considers potential uncertainties associated with commodity cycles can help improve fiscal management. Countercyclical policy implementation would help smooth the impact of commodity-induced sharp fluctuations in the economy.

Peru

Author : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498368662
Total Pages : 64 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis Peru by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Regional Economic Outlook, April 2017, Western Hemisphere Department

Author : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475575394
Total Pages : 155 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Regional Economic Outlook, April 2017, Western Hemisphere Department by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Download or read book Regional Economic Outlook, April 2017, Western Hemisphere Department written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-05-19 with total page 155 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With the global economy gaining some momentum, economies of Latin America and the Caribbean are recovering from a recession at the regional level in 2016. This gradual improvement can be understood as tale of two adjustments, external and fiscal, that are ongoing in response to earlier shocks. But headwinds from commodity terms-of-trade shocks and country-specific domestic factors are fading, paving the way for real GDP to grow by about 1 percent in 2017. Regional activity is expected to pick up further momentum in 2018, but at a slower pace than previously anticipated, while medium-term growth is projected to remain modest at about 2.6 percent. The outlook is shaped by key shifts in the global economic and policy landscape—where slow growth, low productivity, and high income inequality are creating pressure for a shift toward inward- looking policies in some advanced economies. Domestic fundamentals and developments, however, will continue to play a significant role in determining growth for the region. At the same time, risks to the outlook have widened in a setting of higher global uncertainty. In this challenging external context, countries should aim for completing fiscal and external adjustments to preserve or rebuild policy buffers. Charting a course toward higher, sustainable, and more equitable growth will also require strengthening structural reforms. Specifically, closing infrastructure gaps, improving the business environment, governance, and education outcomes, and encouraging female labor participation are necessary to boost medium-term growth and foster income convergence. Chapters in this report examine the ongoing external adjustment to terms-of-trade shifts, drivers of capital flows to the region, the role of the investor base, and macroeconomic impact of migration and remittances.

Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Western Hemisphere Department

Author : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484354672
Total Pages : 134 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Western Hemisphere Department by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Download or read book Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Western Hemisphere Department written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-05-11 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The world economy and global trade are experiencing a broad-based cyclical upswing. Since October 2017, global growth outcomes and the outlook for 2018–19 have improved across all regions, reinforced by the expected positive near-term spillovers from tax policy changes in the United States. Accommodative global financial conditions, despite some tightening and market volatility in early February 2018, have been providing support to economic recovery. Higher commodity prices are contributing to an improved outlook for commodity exporters. The US and Canadian economies posted solid gains in 2017 and are expected to grow above potential in the near term. Despite the improved near-term outlook, however, medium-term prospects are tilted downwards. Growth prospects for advanced economies are subdued and many emerging market and developing economies are projected to grow in per capita terms more slowly than advanced economies, raising concerns about income convergence. While risks appear broadly balanced in the near term, they skew to the downside over the medium term, including a possible sharp tightening of financial conditions, waning popular support for global economic integration, growing trade tensions and risks of a shift toward protectionist policies, and geopolitical strains.

IMF Research Bulletin, Fall 2017

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484327233
Total Pages : 15 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis IMF Research Bulletin, Fall 2017 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Download or read book IMF Research Bulletin, Fall 2017 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-11-09 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Fall 2017 IMF Research Bulletin includes a Q&A article covering "Seven Questions on the Globalization of Farmland" by Christian Bogmans. The first research summary, by Manmohan Singh and Haobing Wang is "Central Bank Balance Sheet Policies: Some Policy Implications." The second research summary is "Leaning Against the Windy Bank Lending" by Giovanni Melina and Stefania Villa. A listing of new IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes is featured, as well as new titles from IMF Publications. Information on IMF Economic Review is also included.

Colombia

Author : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484361431
Total Pages : 78 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Colombia by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Download or read book Colombia written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-05-20 with total page 78 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses key issues related to the Colombian economy. Despite adverse global circumstances, Colombia’s successful policies and inclusive growth agenda continued in 2015. Colombia’s strong policy framework helped ensure an orderly adjustment to the deteriorated external conditions. Although the medium-term outlook is favorable, it is surrounded by downside risks. The main near-term risks stem from Colombia’s still significant near-term external financing needs and potential capital inflow reversals, the result of volatile global financial conditions. On the upside, bringing the peace process to fruition could further improve business confidence and capital inflows, reinforcing the recovery that will follow the necessary adjustment process.

World Economic Outlook, April 2012

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475507038
Total Pages : 299 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, April 2012 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Download or read book World Economic Outlook, April 2012 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-04-17 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The April 2012 issue of the World Economic Outlook assesses the prospects for the global economy, which has gradually strengthened after a major setback during 2011. The threat of a sharp global slowdown eased with improved activity in the United States and better policies in the euro area. Weak recovery will likely resume in the major advanced economies, and activity will remain relatively solid in most emerging and developing economies. However, recent improvements are very fragile. Policymakers must calibrate policies to support growth in the near term and must implement fundamental changes to achieve healthy growth in the medium term. Chapter 3 examines how policies directed at real estate markets can accelerate the improvement of household balance sheets and thus support otherwise anemic consumption. Chapter 4 examines how swings in commodity prices affect commodity-exporting economies, many of which have experienced a decade of good growth. With commodity prices unlikely to continue growing at the recent elevated pace, however, these economies may have to adapt their fiscal and other policies to lower potential output growth in the future.

Commodity Terms of Trade

Author : Bertrand Gruss
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484393856
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Terms of Trade by : Bertrand Gruss

Download or read book Commodity Terms of Trade written by Bertrand Gruss and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-01-24 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a comprehensive database of country-specific commodity price indices for 182 economies covering the period 1962-2018. For each country, the change in the international price of up to 45 individual commodities is weighted using commodity-level trade data. The database includes a commodity terms-of-trade index—which proxies the windfall gains and losses of income associated with changes in world prices—as well as additional country-specific series, including commodity export and import price indices. We provide indices that are constructed using, alternatively, fixed weights (based on average trade flows over several decades) and time-varying weights (which can account for time variation in the mix of commodities traded and the overall importance of commodities in economic activity). The paper also discusses the dynamics of commodity terms of trade across country groups and their influence on key macroeconomic aggregates.