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Testing Wage And Price Phillips Curves For The United States
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Book Synopsis The Wage Curve by : David G. Blanchflower
Download or read book The Wage Curve written by David G. Blanchflower and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1994 with total page 504 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Wage Curve casts doubt on some of the most important ideas in macroeconomics, labor economics, and regional economics. According to macroeconomic orthodoxy, there is a relationship between unemployment and the rate of change of wages. According to orthodoxy in labor economics and regional economics an area's wage is positively related to the amount of joblessness in the area. The Wage Curve suggests that both these beliefs are incorrect. Blanchflower and Oswald argue that the stable relationship is a downward-sloping convex curve linking local unemployment and the level of pay. Their study, one of the most intensive in the history of social science, is based on random samples that provide computerized information on nearly four million people from sixteen countries. Throughout, the authors systematically present evidence and possible explanations for their empirical law of economics.
Book Synopsis Inflation Expectations by : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Book Synopsis Unemployment, Hysteresis, and the Natural Rate Hypothesis by : Rod Cross
Download or read book Unemployment, Hysteresis, and the Natural Rate Hypothesis written by Rod Cross and published by Wiley-Blackwell. This book was released on 1988 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Studies in Business-cycle Theory by : Robert E. Lucas
Download or read book Studies in Business-cycle Theory written by Robert E. Lucas and published by MIT Press (MA). This book was released on 1983 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An academic colleague has called Lucas "the dominant figure in Americanmacroeconomics." And another refers to this group of 14 essays, nearly all of which were firstpublished during the 1970s, as the most influential contribution to macroeconomics in thatdecade.
Book Synopsis A Phillips Curve with Anchored Expectations and Short-Term Unemployment by : Laurence M. Ball
Download or read book A Phillips Curve with Anchored Expectations and Short-Term Unemployment written by Laurence M. Ball and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-02-25 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the recent behavior of core inflation in the United States. We specify a simple Phillips curve based on the assumptions that inflation expectations are fully anchored at the Federal Reserve’s target, and that labor-market slack is captured by the level of shortterm unemployment. This equation explains inflation behavior since 2000, including the failure of high total unemployment since 2008 to reduce inflation greatly. The fit of our equation is especially good when we measure core inflation with the Cleveland Fed’s series on weighted median inflation. We also propose a more general Phillips curve in which core inflation depends on short-term unemployment and on expected inflation as measured by the Survey of Professional Forecasters. This specification fits U.S. inflation since 1985, including both the anchored-expectations period of the 2000s and the preceding period when expectations were determined by past levels of inflation.
Book Synopsis Monetary Macrodynamics by : Toichiro Asada
Download or read book Monetary Macrodynamics written by Toichiro Asada and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012-11-12 with total page 449 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book investigates the interaction of effective goods demand with the wage-price spiral, and the impact of monetary policy on financial and the real markets from a Keynesian perspective. Endogenous business fluctuations are studied in the context of long-run distributive cycles in an advanced, rigorously formulated and quantitative setup. The material is developed by way of self-contained chapters on three levels of generality, an advanced textbook level, a research-oriented applied level and on a third level that shows how the interaction of real with financial markets has to be modelled from a truly integrative Keynesian perspective. Monetary Macrodynamics shows that the balanced growth path of a capitalist economy is unlikely to be attracting and that the cumulative forces that surround it are controlled in the large by changes in the behavioural factors that drive the wage-price spiral and the financial markets. Such behavioural changes can in fact be observed in actual economies in the interaction of demand-driven business fluctuations with supply-driven wage and price dynamics as they originate from the conflict over income distribution between capital and labour. The book is a detailed critique of US mainstream macroeconomics and uses rigorous dynamic macro-models of a descriptive and applicable nature. It will be of particular relevance to postgraduate students and researchers interested in disequilibrium processes, real wage feedback channels, financial markets and portfolio choice, financial accelerator mechanisms and monetary policy.
Book Synopsis Seven Schools of Macroeconomic Thought by : Edmund S. Phelps
Download or read book Seven Schools of Macroeconomic Thought written by Edmund S. Phelps and published by Clarendon Press. This book was released on 1990-05-17 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers an excellent survey of various macroeconomic topics which feature prominently in the research agenda and have inspired both theoretical and policy debate. The book presents an authoritative and comprehensive summary and original critique of modern macroeconomic approaches by a scholar whose own contribution to the field is considerable. In each of his seven chapters, the author reviews one school of economic thought. These are: the Keynesian school of macroeconomics; the monetarist school; the New Classical school; the New-Keynesian school; supply side macroeconomics, and `non-monetary' models of macroeconomics - the real business cycle theory and the `structuralist school' which views changes in unemployment as the outcome of shifts in the structural characteristics of the economy. The book is the text of the first series of Ryde Lectures, established by Lund University in Sweden.
Book Synopsis Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession by : Laurence M. Ball
Download or read book Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession written by Laurence M. Ball and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-06-01 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines inflation dynamics in the United States since 1960, with a particular focus on the Great Recession. A puzzle emerges when Phillips curves estimated over 1960-2007 are ussed to predice inflation over 2008-2010: inflation should have fallen by more than it did. We resolve this puzzle with two modifications of the Phillips curve, both suggested by theories of costly price adjustment: we measure core inflation with the median CPI inflation rate, and we allow the slope of the Phillips curve to change with the level and vairance of inflation. We then examine the hypothesis of anchored inflation expectations. We find that expectations have been fully "shock-anchored" since the 1980s, while "level anchoring" has been gradual and partial, but significant. It is not clear whether expectations are sufficiently anchored to prevent deflation over the next few years. Finally, we show that the Great Recession provides fresh evidence against the New Keynesian Phillips curve with rational expectations.
Book Synopsis Reconstructing Keynesian Macroeconomics Volume 1 by : Carl Chiarella
Download or read book Reconstructing Keynesian Macroeconomics Volume 1 written by Carl Chiarella and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012-03-29 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book represents the first of three volumes offering a complete reinterpretation and restructuring of Keynesian macroeconomics and a detailed investigation of the disequilibrium adjustment processes characterizing the financial, the goods and the labour markets and their interaction. It questions in a radical way the evolution of Keynesian macroeconomics after World War II and focuses on the limitations of the traditional Keynesian approach until it fell apart in the early 1970s, as well as the inadequacy of the new consensus in macroeconomics that emerged from the Monetarist critique of Keynesianism. Professors Chiarella, Flaschel and Semmler investigate basic methodological issues, the pitfalls of the Rational Expectations School, important feedback channels in the tradition of Tobin’s work, and theories of the wage-price spiral and the evidences for them. The book uses primarily partial approaches, the integration of which will be the subject of subsequent volumes. With its focus on Keynesian propagation mechanisms, the research in this book provides a unique alternative to the black-box shock-absorber approaches that dominate modern macroeconomics. Reconstructing Keynesian Macroeconomics should be of interest to students and researchers who want to look at alternatives to the mainstream macrodynamics that emerged from the Monetarist critique of Keynesianism.
Book Synopsis Quantitative and Empirical Analysis of Nonlinear Dynamic Macromodels by : Carl Chiarella
Download or read book Quantitative and Empirical Analysis of Nonlinear Dynamic Macromodels written by Carl Chiarella and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2006-05-30 with total page 563 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book represents an ongoing research agenda the aim of which is to contribute to the Keynesian paradigm in macroeconomics. It examines the Dynamic General Equilibrium (DGE) model, the assumption of intertemporal optimizing behavior of economic agents, competitive markets and price mediated market clearing through flexible wages and prices.
Book Synopsis Aspects of Modern Monetary and Macroeconomic Policies by : P. Arestis
Download or read book Aspects of Modern Monetary and Macroeconomic Policies written by P. Arestis and published by Springer. This book was released on 2007-06-07 with total page 290 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Within the New Consensus Macroeconomics, monetary policy is upgraded while fiscal policy is downgraded. This new monetary policy has been the main instrument of policy under the guise of inflation targeting, an approach pursued by a number of central banks worldwide. This book raises problems relating to this new monetary and macroeconomic policy.
Book Synopsis Heterodox Macroeconomics by : Robert A. Blecker
Download or read book Heterodox Macroeconomics written by Robert A. Blecker and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2019 with total page 598 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: p.p1 {margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 10.0px Arial} The last few decades have witnessed an outpouring of literature on macroeconomic models in the broad ‘heterodox’ tradition of Marx, Keynes, Robinson, Kaldor and Kalecki. These models yield an alternative analytical framework in which the big questions of our day – such as how inequality is related to growth or stagnation, and whether long-run growth is stable or unstable – can be fruitfully addressed. Heterodox Macroeconomics provides an accessible, pedagogically oriented treatment of the leading models and approaches in heterodox macroeconomics with clear, step-by-step presentations of core models and their solutions, properties and implications.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomics and the Phillips Curve Myth by : James Forder
Download or read book Macroeconomics and the Phillips Curve Myth written by James Forder and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2014 with total page 321 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book reconsiders the role of the Phillips curve in macroeconomic analysis in the first twenty years following the famous work by A. W. H. Phillips, after whom it is named. It argues that the story conventionally told is entirely misleading. In that story, Phillips made a great breakthrough but his work led to a view that inflationary policy could be used systematically to maintain low unemployment, and that it was only after the work of Milton Friedman and Edmund Phelps about a decade after Phillips' that this view was rejected. On the contrary, a detailed analysis of the literature of the times shows that the idea of a negative relation between wage change and unemployment - supposedly Phillips' discovery - was commonplace in the 1950s, as were the arguments attributed to Friedman and Phelps by the conventional story. And, perhaps most importantly, there is scarcely any sign of the idea of the inflation-unemployment tradeoff promoting inflationary policy, either in the theoretical literature or in actual policymaking. The book demonstrates and identifies a number of main strands of the actual thinking of the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s on the question of the determination of inflation and its relation to other variables. The result is not only a rejection of the Phillips curve story as it has been told, and a reassessment of the understanding of the economists of those years of macroeconomics, but also the construction of an alternative, and historically more authentic account, of the economic theory of those times. A notable outcome is that the economic theory of the time was not nearly so naive as it has been portrayed.
Book Synopsis The Natural Rate of Unemployment by : Rod Cross
Download or read book The Natural Rate of Unemployment written by Rod Cross and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1995-06-22 with total page 404 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For 25 years, theory about the causes of, and possible solutions to, the problem of unemployment has been dominated by Phelps' and Friedman's natural rate of unemployment hypothesis. This postulates that the equilibrium rate of unemployment consistent with steady inflation is determined by structural variables: sustainable reductions in unemployment can be achieved only by measures to change underlying microeconomic structures, such as benefit and pay bargaining systems. Belief in the hypothesis has faltered since the 1980s, the hypothesis being unable to explain the dramatic upward shifts in European unemployment rates. These essays reflect upon the fundamental structures underlying the hypothesis, assess the related evidence, and look forwards, suggesting possible modifications. In contrast to the single rate postulated by the natural rate hypothesis, several of the contributors propose that there are ranges of unemployment rates consistent with steady inflation.
Book Synopsis A History of Macroeconomics from Keynes to Lucas and Beyond by : Michel De Vroey
Download or read book A History of Macroeconomics from Keynes to Lucas and Beyond written by Michel De Vroey and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2016-01-08 with total page 451 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book retraces the history of macroeconomics from Keynes's General Theory to the present. Central to it is the contrast between a Keynesian era and a Lucasian - or dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) - era, each ruled by distinct methodological standards. In the Keynesian era, the book studies the following theories: Keynesian macroeconomics, monetarism, disequilibrium macro (Patinkin, Leijongufvud, and Clower) non-Walrasian equilibrium models, and first-generation new Keynesian models. Three stages are identified in the DSGE era: new classical macro (Lucas), RBC modelling, and second-generation new Keynesian modeling. The book also examines a few selected works aimed at presenting alternatives to Lucasian macro. While not eschewing analytical content, Michel De Vroey focuses on substantive assessments, and the models studied are presented in a pedagogical and vivid yet critical way.
Book Synopsis Topics in Applied Macrodynamic Theory by : Peter Flaschel
Download or read book Topics in Applied Macrodynamic Theory written by Peter Flaschel and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-07-03 with total page 523 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This insightful book presents topics in applied dynamic macrotheory for closed and open economies. The authors give an advanced treatment of macroeconomic topics such as the Phillips curve, forward and backward looking behavior, open economy macrodynamics, structural macroeconometric model building as well as the empirics of Keynesian oriented macro models. The dynamics of open economies in the context of interacting two country models are treated as well.
Book Synopsis The Inflation-Targeting Debate by : Ben S. Bernanke
Download or read book The Inflation-Targeting Debate written by Ben S. Bernanke and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 469 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past fifteen years, a significant number of industrialized and middle-income countries have adopted inflation targeting as a framework for monetary policymaking. As the name suggests, in such inflation-targeting regimes, the central bank is responsible for achieving a publicly announced target for the inflation rate. While the objective of controlling inflation enjoys wide support among both academic experts and policymakers, and while the countries that have followed this model have generally experienced good macroeconomic outcomes, many important questions about inflation targeting remain. In Inflation Targeting, a distinguished group of contributors explores the many underexamined dimensions of inflation targeting—its potential, its successes, and its limitations—from both a theoretical and an empirical standpoint, and for both developed and emerging economies. The volume opens with a discussion of the optimal formulation of inflation-targeting policy and continues with a debate about the desirability of such a model for the United States. The concluding chapters discuss the special problems of inflation targeting in emerging markets, including the Czech Republic, Poland, and Hungary.
