Terms Of Trade And The Current Account Under Uncertainty

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Macroeconomics for Professionals

Author : Leslie Lipschitz
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1108568467
Total Pages : 312 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (85 download)

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Book Synopsis Macroeconomics for Professionals by : Leslie Lipschitz

Download or read book Macroeconomics for Professionals written by Leslie Lipschitz and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019-01-23 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding macroeconomic developments and policies in the twenty-first century is daunting: policy-makers face the combined challenges of supporting economic activity and employment, keeping inflation low and risks of financial crises at bay, and navigating the ever-tighter linkages of globalization. Many professionals face demands to evaluate the implications of developments and policies for their business, financial, or public policy decisions. Macroeconomics for Professionals provides a concise, rigorous, yet intuitive framework for assessing a country's macroeconomic outlook and policies. Drawing on years of experience at the International Monetary Fund, Leslie Lipschitz and Susan Schadler have created an operating manual for professional applied economists and all those required to evaluate economic analysis.

The Global Trade Slowdown

Author : Cristina Constantinescu
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498399134
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis The Global Trade Slowdown by : Cristina Constantinescu

Download or read book The Global Trade Slowdown written by Cristina Constantinescu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-01-21 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis. These results suggest that trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but also because of a structural change in the trade-GDP relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that the explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing composition of trade and GDP.

The Response of the Current Account to Terms of Trade Shocks

Author : Christopher J. Kent
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451856369
Total Pages : 50 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis The Response of the Current Account to Terms of Trade Shocks by : Christopher J. Kent

Download or read book The Response of the Current Account to Terms of Trade Shocks written by Christopher J. Kent and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-07-01 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is the relationship between the current account balance and the terms of trade affected by the persistence of terms of trade shocks? In intertemporal models of the current account that incorporate a consumption-smoothing and an investment response to shocks, the effect of the terms of trade on external balances is predicted to be dependent on the duration of terms of trade shocks. Using a median-unbiased estimator, an unbiased model-selection rule, and terms of trade data for 128 countries over the period 1960-99 we identify two groups of countries-those that typically experience temporary terms of trade shocks and those that typically experience permanent terms of trade shocks. The results from panel-data regressions of the two groups of countries support the theoretical predictions of the intertemporal approach to the current account. We find that the greater (lesser) the persistence of the terms of trade shock, the more (less) the investment effect dominates the consumption-smoothing effect on saving, so that the current account balance moves in the opposite (same) direction as that of the shock.

The External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology

Author : Mr.Steven Phillips
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484346785
Total Pages : 68 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis The External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology by : Mr.Steven Phillips

Download or read book The External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology written by Mr.Steven Phillips and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-01-13 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology has been developed by the IMF’s Research Department as a successor to the CGER methodology for assessing current accounts and exchange rates in a multilaterally consistent manner. Compared to other approaches, EBA emphasizes distinguishing between the positive empirical analysis and the normative assessment of current accounts and exchange rates, and highlights the roles of policies and policy distortions. This paper provides a comprehensive description and discussion of the 2013 version (“2.0”) of the EBA methodology, including areas for its further development.

Economic Growth in Latin America

Author : Mr.Jose De Gregorio
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451959753
Total Pages : 57 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (519 download)

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Book Synopsis Economic Growth in Latin America by : Mr.Jose De Gregorio

Download or read book Economic Growth in Latin America written by Mr.Jose De Gregorio and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-07-01 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies growth determinants in 12 Latin American countries during the period 1950-85. In a simple growth accounting framework, the share of labor in income is found to be lower in the sample group than in developed countries, while factor productivity growth accounts for a larger proportion of growth in the fastest growing countries in the sample. Using panel data, macroeconomic stability is found to play, in addition to investment (physical and human), a crucial role in growth. To a lesser extent, growth is negatively correlated with government consumption and political instability. The terms of trade appear to have no significant effect on growth.

International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards

Author :
Publisher : Lulu.com
ISBN 13 : 9291316695
Total Pages : 294 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (913 download)

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Book Synopsis International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards by :

Download or read book International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards written by and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2004 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

A Handbook of International Trade in Services

Author : Aaditya Mattoo
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 019923521X
Total Pages : 675 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (992 download)

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Book Synopsis A Handbook of International Trade in Services by : Aaditya Mattoo

Download or read book A Handbook of International Trade in Services written by Aaditya Mattoo and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2008 with total page 675 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This title provides a comprehensive introduction to the key issues in trade and liberalization of services. Providing a useful overview of the players involved, the barriers to trade, and case studies in a number of service industries, this is ideal for policymakers and students interested in trade.

Balance of Payments Textbook

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1557755701
Total Pages : 159 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (577 download)

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Book Synopsis Balance of Payments Textbook by : International Monetary Fund

Download or read book Balance of Payments Textbook written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1996-04-15 with total page 159 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Balance of Payments Textbook, like the Balance of Payments Compilation Guide, is a companion document to the fifth edition of the Balance of Payments Manual. The Textbook provides illustrative examples and applications of concepts, definitions, classifications, and conventions contained in the Manual and affords compilers with opportunities for enhancing their understanding of the relevant parts of the Manual. The Textbook is one of the main reference materials for training courses in balance of payments methodology.

A Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis

Author : Marc Bacchetta
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9789287038128
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (381 download)

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Book Synopsis A Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis by : Marc Bacchetta

Download or read book A Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis written by Marc Bacchetta and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Trade flows and trade policies need to be properly quantified to describe, compare, or follow the evolution of policies between sectors or countries or over time. This is essential to ensure that policy choices are made with an appropriate knowledge of the real conditions. This practical guide introduces the main techniques of trade and trade policy data analysis. It shows how to develop the main indexes used to analyze trade flows, tariff structures, and non-tariff measures. It presents the databases needed to construct these indexes as well as the challenges faced in collecting and processing these data, such as measurement errors or aggregation bias. Written by experts with practical experience in the field, A Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis has been developed to contribute to enhance developing countries' capacity to analyze and implement trade policy. It offers a hands-on introduction on how to estimate the distributional effects of trade policies on welfare, in particular on inequality and poverty. The guide is aimed at government experts engaged in trade negotiations, as well as students and researchers involved in trade-related study or research. An accompanying DVD contains data sets and program command files required for the exercises. Copublished by the WTO and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

Trade Credit and Bank Credit

Author : Inessa Love
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Trade Credit and Bank Credit by : Inessa Love

Download or read book Trade Credit and Bank Credit written by Inessa Love and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The authors study the effect of financial crises on trade credit in a sample of 890 firms in six emerging economies. They find that although provision of trade credit increases right after the crisis, it consequently collapses in the following months and years. The authors observe that firms with weaker financial position (for example, high pre-crisis level of short-term debt and low cash stocks and cash flows) are more likely to reduce trade credit provided to their customers. This suggests that the decline in aggregate credit provision is driven by the reduction in the supply of trade credit, which follows the bank credit crunch. The results are consistent with the "redistribution view" of trade credit provision, in which bank credit is redistributed by way of trade credit by the firms with stronger financial position to the firms with weaker financial stand "--World Bank web site.

The Collapse of Global Trade, Murky Protectionism, and the Crisis

Author : Richard E. Baldwin
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781907142239
Total Pages : 112 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (422 download)

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Book Synopsis The Collapse of Global Trade, Murky Protectionism, and the Crisis by : Richard E. Baldwin

Download or read book The Collapse of Global Trade, Murky Protectionism, and the Crisis written by Richard E. Baldwin and published by . This book was released on 2011-03 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global financial crisis of 2008/9 is the Great Depression of the 21st century. For many though, the similarities stop at the Wall Street Crash as the current generation of policymakers have acted quickly to avoid the mistakes of the past. Yet the global crisis has made room for mistakes all of its own. While governments have apparently kept to their word on refraining from protectionist measures in the style of 1930s tariffs, there has been a disturbing rise in "murky protectionism." Seemingly benign, these crisis-linked policies are twisted to favour domestic firms, workers and investors. This book, first published as an eBook on VoxEU.org in March 2009, brings together leading trade policy practitioners and experts - including Australian Trade Minister Simon Crean and former Mexican President Ernesto Zedillo. Initially its aim was to advise policymakers heading in to the G20 meeting in London, but since the threat of murky protectionism persists, so too do their warnings.

The Great Trade Collapse: Causes, Consequences and Prospects

Author : Richard E. Baldwin
Publisher : CEPR
ISBN 13 : 1907142061
Total Pages : 246 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (71 download)

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Book Synopsis The Great Trade Collapse: Causes, Consequences and Prospects by : Richard E. Baldwin

Download or read book The Great Trade Collapse: Causes, Consequences and Prospects written by Richard E. Baldwin and published by CEPR. This book was released on 2009 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

G7 Current Account Imbalances

Author : Richard H. Clarida
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226107280
Total Pages : 518 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (261 download)

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Book Synopsis G7 Current Account Imbalances by : Richard H. Clarida

Download or read book G7 Current Account Imbalances written by Richard H. Clarida and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 518 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The current account deficit of the United States is more than six percent of its gross domestic product—an all-time high. And the rest of the world, including other G7 countries such as Japan and Germany, must collectively run current account surpluses to finance this deficit. How long can such unevenness between imports and exports be sustained, and what form might their eventual reconciliation take? Putting forth scenarios ranging from a gradual correction to a crash landing for the dollar, G7 Current Account Imbalances brings together economists from around the globe to consider the origins, status, and future of those disparities. An esteemed group of collaborators here examines the role of the bursting of the dot-com bubble, the history of previous episodes of current account adjustments, and the possibility of the Euro surpassing the dollar as the leading international reserve currency. Though there are areas of broad agreement—that the imbalances will ultimately decline and that currency revaluations will be part of the solution—many areas of contention remain regarding both the dangers of imbalances and the possible forms of adjustment. This volume will be of tremendous value to economists, politicians, and business leaders alike as they look to the future of the G7 economies.

International Capital Flows

Author : Martin Feldstein
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226241807
Total Pages : 500 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (262 download)

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Book Synopsis International Capital Flows by : Martin Feldstein

Download or read book International Capital Flows written by Martin Feldstein and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-12-01 with total page 500 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent changes in technology, along with the opening up of many regions previously closed to investment, have led to explosive growth in the international movement of capital. Flows from foreign direct investment and debt and equity financing can bring countries substantial gains by augmenting local savings and by improving technology and incentives. Investing companies acquire market access, lower cost inputs, and opportunities for profitable introductions of production methods in the countries where they invest. But, as was underscored recently by the economic and financial crises in several Asian countries, capital flows can also bring risks. Although there is no simple explanation of the currency crisis in Asia, it is clear that fixed exchange rates and chronic deficits increased the likelihood of a breakdown. Similarly, during the 1970s, the United States and other industrial countries loaned OPEC surpluses to borrowers in Latin America. But when the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates to control soaring inflation, the result was a widespread debt moratorium in Latin America as many countries throughout the region struggled to pay the high interest on their foreign loans. International Capital Flows contains recent work by eminent scholars and practitioners on the experience of capital flows to Latin America, Asia, and eastern Europe. These papers discuss the role of banks, equity markets, and foreign direct investment in international capital flows, and the risks that investors and others face with these transactions. By focusing on capital flows' productivity and determinants, and the policy issues they raise, this collection is a valuable resource for economists, policymakers, and financial market participants.

Policy Uncertainty in Japan

Author : Ms.Elif C Arbatli
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484302362
Total Pages : 48 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Policy Uncertainty in Japan by : Ms.Elif C Arbatli

Download or read book Policy Uncertainty in Japan written by Ms.Elif C Arbatli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-05-30 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop new economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices for Japan from January 1987 onwards building on the approach of Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016). Each index reflects the frequency of newspaper articles that contain certain terms pertaining to the economy, policy matters and uncertainty. Our overall EPU index co-varies positively with implied volatilities for Japanese equities, exchange rates and interest rates and with a survey-based measure of political uncertainty. The EPU index rises around contested national elections and major leadership transitions in Japan, during the Asian Financial Crisis and in reaction to the Lehman Brothers failure, U.S. debt downgrade in 2011, Brexit referendum, and Japan’s recent decision to defer a consumption tax hike. Our uncertainty indices for fiscal, monetary, trade and exchange rate policy co-vary positively but also display distinct dynamics. VAR models imply that upward EPU innovations foreshadow deteriorations in Japan’s macroeconomic performance, as reflected by impulse response functions for investment, employment and output. Our study adds to evidence that credible policy plans and strong policy frameworks can favorably influence macroeconomic performance by, in part, reducing policy uncertainty.

China's Changing Trade and the Implications for the CLMV

Author : Mr.Koshy Mathai
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475531710
Total Pages : 84 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis China's Changing Trade and the Implications for the CLMV by : Mr.Koshy Mathai

Download or read book China's Changing Trade and the Implications for the CLMV written by Mr.Koshy Mathai and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-01 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China’s trade patterns are evolving. While it started in light manufacturing and the assembly of more sophisticated products as part of global supply chains, China is now moving up the value chain, “onshoring” the production of higher-value-added upstream products and moving into more sophisticated downstream products as well. At the same time, with its wages rising, it has started to exit some lower-end, more labor-intensive sectors. These changes are taking place in the broader context of China’s rebalancing—away from exports and toward domestic demand, and within the latter, away from investment and toward consumption—and as a consequence, demand for some commodity imports is slowing, while consumption imports are slowly rising. The evolution of Chinese trade, investment, and consumption patterns offers opportunities and challenges to low-wage, low-income countries, including China’s neighbors in the Mekong region. Cambodia, Lao P.D.R., Myanmar, and Vietnam (the CLMV) are all open economies that are highly integrated with China. Rebalancing in China may mean less of a role for commodity exports from the region, but at the same time, the CLMV’s low labor costs suggest that manufacturing assembly for export could take off as China becomes less competitive, and as China itself demands more consumption items. Labor costs, however, are only part of the story. The CLMV will need to strengthen their infrastructure, education, governance, and trade regimes, and also run sound macro policies in order to capitalize fully on the opportunities presented by China’s transformation. With such policy efforts, the CLMV could see their trade and integration with global supply chains grow dramatically in the coming years.

Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment

Author : Robert S. Pindyck
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 58 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment by : Robert S. Pindyck

Download or read book Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment written by Robert S. Pindyck and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1989 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Irreversible investment is especially sensitive to such risk factors as volatile exchange rates and uncertainty about tariff structures and future cash flows. If the goal of macroeconomic policy is to stimulate investment, stability and credibility may be more important than tax incentives or interest rates.