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Temporary Vs Permanent Shocks
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Book Synopsis Temporary vs. Permanent Shocks by : Alexander S. Gorbenko
Download or read book Temporary vs. Permanent Shocks written by Alexander S. Gorbenko and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 67 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate corporate financial policies in the presence of both temporary and permanent shocks to firms' cash flows. In our framework firms can experience negative cash flows, the changes in and levels of cash flows are imperfectly correlated with firm value, and earnings volatility is different from asset volatility. These results are consistent with empirical stylized facts and are opposite to the implications of existing dynamic capital structure models which allow only for permanent shocks to cash flows. Our results show that temporary shocks increase the importance of financial flexibility and may provide an intuitively simple and realistic explanation of empirically observed financial conservatism and low leverage phenomena. The theoretical framework developed in this paper is general enough to be used in various corporate finance applications.
Book Synopsis Impacts of Permanent and Temporary Shocks on Optimal Length of Moving Average to Forecast a Time Series by : Yoonsuk Lee
Download or read book Impacts of Permanent and Temporary Shocks on Optimal Length of Moving Average to Forecast a Time Series written by Yoonsuk Lee and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 123 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Corporate Espionage, Geopolitics, and Diplomacy Issues in International Business by : Christiansen, Bryan
Download or read book Corporate Espionage, Geopolitics, and Diplomacy Issues in International Business written by Christiansen, Bryan and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2016-10-31 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As global business competition continues to accelerate, it is imperative that managers and executives examine all facets of an organization so that it remains successful. Often dynamics such as espionage, diplomacy, and geopolitical atmosphere have a great impact on daily operations of an organization; however, these areas are often overlooked. Corporate Espionage, Geopolitics, and Diplomacy Issues in International Business highlights strategic planning and operations tactics in the areas of human resource management and security. Featuring the impact of espionage, geopolitics, and diplomacy, this book is an insightful reference for business and government executives, scholars, graduate and undergraduate students, and practitioners .
Book Synopsis Identifying Permanent and Temporary Shocks in Government Spending Using Economic Policy Uncertainty by : Carlos D. Ramirez
Download or read book Identifying Permanent and Temporary Shocks in Government Spending Using Economic Policy Uncertainty written by Carlos D. Ramirez and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper decomposes government spending into its temporary and permanent components using Baker's et. al. economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in a bivariate SVAR setting with long-run constraints, a la Blanchard and Quah (1989). To illustrate the applicability of the bivariate moving average (BMAR) setting, I embed government spending and EPU in Campbell and Shiller (1987)'s present value model. I find that government spending responds approximately equally to both temporary and permanent shocks. However, temporary shocks are observed to increase uncertainty while permanent shocks decrease it. To illustrate the applicability of the decomposition exercise, I also investigate how it affects the magnitude of fiscal policy multipliers, finding that fiscal multipliers out of permanent shocks are large and longlasting (averaging 2), while those out of temporary shocks are either statistically zero or even negative at medium to long horizons.
Author :Jean-Olivier Hairault Publisher :Springer Science & Business Media ISBN 13 :1461561736 Total Pages :355 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (615 download)
Book Synopsis Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Stability by : Jean-Olivier Hairault
Download or read book Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Stability written by Jean-Olivier Hairault and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 355 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Setting the issue "Most economists consider the marked increase in automatic stabilizers a highly favorable development with respect to maintenance of economic stability". Besides the rare privilege of having being signed by both Milton Friedman and Paul Samuelson (Depres,Friedman, Hart, Samuelson, and Wallace [1950]), among others, this sentence expressed as soon as 1950 the consensus view on the stabilizing effect of fiscal rules governing tax revenue and public expendi tures and transfers. This positive ex ante assessment will have been confirmed ex post as part of the explanation for post war stabilization (Burns [1960], de Long and Summers [1986], Moore and Zarnovitz [1986]). However, it becomes disputed in both its positive and normative aspects. Many institutional changes since the eighties point at curbing back the transfer mechanisms underlying automatic stabilizers, and legal restraints on deficits such as the US balanced budget amendment or the European Maastricht criteria would involve serious risks for the future of stabilizers. Under such rules "the government would become, almost inevitally, a destabilizer rather than a stabilizer" said Joseph Stiglitz, quoted by the New York Times (April 1995)). "Built-in stabilizers are automatic fiscal adjustments that reduce the national income multiplier and thus cushion the effects of changes in autonomous spend ing on the level of income" (Pechman [1987]). Early analyses of the automatic fiscal stabilizers include the contributions of A. G. Hart [1945], R. Musgrave and M. Miller (1948) and E. C. Brown (1955).
Book Synopsis Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations by : Mr.Pau Rabanal
Download or read book Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations written by Mr.Pau Rabanal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2004-12-01 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Our answer: Not so well. We reached that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a limited role for aggregate technology shocks, pointing instead to demand factors as the main force behind the strong positive comovement between output and labor input measures.
Book Synopsis Rational Expectations in Macroeconomic Models by : P. Fisher
Download or read book Rational Expectations in Macroeconomic Models written by P. Fisher and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1992-08-31 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is commonly believed that macroeconomic models are not useful for policy analysis because they do not take proper account of agents' expectations. Over the last decade, mainstream macroeconomic models in the UK and elsewhere have taken on board the `Rational Expectations Revolution' by explicitly incorporating expectations of the future. In principle, one can perform the same technical exercises on a forward expectations model as on a conventional model -- and more! Rational Expectations in Macroeconomic Models deals with the numerical methods necessary to carry out policy analysis and forecasting with these models. These methods are often passed on by word of mouth or confined to obscure journals. Rational Expectations in Macroeconomic Models brings them together with applications which are interesting in their own right. There is no comparable textbook in the literature. The specific subjects include: (i) solving for model consistent expectations; (ii) the choice of terminal condition and time horizon; (iii) experimental design: i.e., the effect of temporary vs permanent, anticipated vs. unanticipated shocks; deterministic vs. stochastic, dynamic vs. static simulation; (iv) the role of exchange rate; (v) optimal control and inflation-output tradeoffs. The models used are those of the Liverpool Research Group in Macroeconomics, the London Business School and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
Book Synopsis Hysteresis and Business Cycles by : Ms.Valerie Cerra
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Book Synopsis External Shocks in Classical and Keynesian Economies by : Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel
Download or read book External Shocks in Classical and Keynesian Economies written by Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Learning from SARS by : Institute of Medicine
Download or read book Learning from SARS written by Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2004-04-26 with total page 376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in late 2002 and 2003 challenged the global public health community to confront a novel epidemic that spread rapidly from its origins in southern China until it had reached more than 25 other countries within a matter of months. In addition to the number of patients infected with the SARS virus, the disease had profound economic and political repercussions in many of the affected regions. Recent reports of isolated new SARS cases and a fear that the disease could reemerge and spread have put public health officials on high alert for any indications of possible new outbreaks. This report examines the response to SARS by public health systems in individual countries, the biology of the SARS coronavirus and related coronaviruses in animals, the economic and political fallout of the SARS epidemic, quarantine law and other public health measures that apply to combating infectious diseases, and the role of international organizations and scientific cooperation in halting the spread of SARS. The report provides an illuminating survey of findings from the epidemic, along with an assessment of what might be needed in order to contain any future outbreaks of SARS or other emerging infections.
Book Synopsis Exploring General Equilibrium by : Fischer S. Black
Download or read book Exploring General Equilibrium written by Fischer S. Black and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2010-05-21 with total page 361 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An incisive, unconventional assessment of general equilibrium theory; with a previously unpublished paper. Fischer Black is known for his brilliance as well as his sometimes controversial opinions. Highly respected for his scholarly writings in finance, he now moves into different territory with this incisive, unconventional assessment of general equilibrium theory and what that theory reveals about business cycles, growth, and labor economics. The general equilibrium approach, Black asserts, can be used to explain most of the economy's behavior. It can explain business cycles and growth without using sticky prices, irrationality, economies of scale, or imperfect competition. It can explain the volatility of consumption, output, sales, investment, and inventories with axiomatic utility and constant-returns-to-scale production. It can explain temporary layoffs, job changes with and without intervening unemployment, and the behavior of vacancies. It can explain lower wages in part-time jobs, wages that increase rapidly with time on the job, and the forces that cause migration from poor to rich countries. Although the general equilibrium approach can't be tested in conventional ways, it can be used to generate examples that explain stylized facts—generalized observations from the real world—that have preoccupied macroeconomists for the last decade. Black contrasts his interpretation of these facts with conventional interpretations. Finally, he reviews a substantial body of literature on these topics.
Book Synopsis Aftershocks of Monetary Unification by : Mr.Tamim Bayoumi
Download or read book Aftershocks of Monetary Unification written by Mr.Tamim Bayoumi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-03-13 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Once upon a time, in the 1990s, it was widely agreed that neither Europe nor the United States was an optimum currency area, although moderating this concern was the finding that it was possible to distinguish a regional core and periphery (Bayoumi and Eichengreen, 1993). Revisiting these issues, we find that the United States is remains closer to an optimum currency area than the Euro Area. More intriguingly, the Euro Area shows striking changes in correlations and responses which we interpret as reflecting hysteresis with a financial twist, in which the financial system causes aggregate supply and demand shocks to reinforce each other. An implication is that the Euro Area needs vigorous, coordinated regulation of its banking and financial systems by a single supervisor—that monetary union without banking union will not work.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rates, Capital Flows and Policy by : Rebecca Driver
Download or read book Exchange Rates, Capital Flows and Policy written by Rebecca Driver and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-04-15 with total page 456 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Combining thorough scholarship with illuminating real-world examples, this edited collection provides insights on the causes and consequences of movements in both exchange rates and external assets and has a strong focus on the policy implications of operating in an open economy, particularly the choice of exchange rate and monetary policy, exchange rate intervention and policies on capital mobility.
Book Synopsis Shock Therapy! What Role for Thai Monetary Policy? by : Mr.Harun Alp
Download or read book Shock Therapy! What Role for Thai Monetary Policy? written by Mr.Harun Alp and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-11-08 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Thailand had to endure three major shocks during 2008–2011: the global financial crisis, the Japanese earthquake, and the Thai floods of 2011. Over this period, consistent with its inflation targeting framework, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) let the exchange rate depreciate and cut interest rates (to, for example, a historically low level of 11⁄4 percent by mid-2009). This paper seeks to uncover the role of monetary policy in softening the impact of these shocks. Specifically, it seeks to address the following question: if an inflation targeting framework underpinned by a flexible exchange rate regime had not been in place, how would the economic contractions associated with these shocks have differed? Counterfactual simulations based on an estimated structural model indicate that countercyclical monetary policy and exchange rate flexibility added up to a total of 4 percentage points to real GDP growth during periods when Thailand had to weather these three major shocks.
Book Synopsis Stochastic Trends, Debt Sustainability and Fiscal Policy by : Karim Barhoumi
Download or read book Stochastic Trends, Debt Sustainability and Fiscal Policy written by Karim Barhoumi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-03-10 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study empirically the reaction of fiscal policy to changes in the permanent and transitory components of GDP in a panel of countries. We find evidence that government spending tends to be counter-cyclical conditional on temporary shocks and pro-cyclical conditional on permanent shocks. We also find no evidence that developing countries are systematically different from developed ones in terms of fiscal policy. We present a theory featuring a fiscal reaction function to the output gap and a measure of debt sustainability. The fiscal impulse response to a permanent (temporary) shock to GDP is positive (negative) as the effect on debt sustainability (current output gap) dominates. The results are mostly sensitive to the relative weight of debt sustainability in the fiscal reaction function as well as to the extent of real rigidities in the economy.
Book Synopsis Introduction to Modern Time Series Analysis by : Gebhard Kirchgässner
Download or read book Introduction to Modern Time Series Analysis written by Gebhard Kirchgässner and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-10-09 with total page 326 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents modern developments in time series econometrics that are applied to macroeconomic and financial time series, bridging the gap between methods and realistic applications. It presents the most important approaches to the analysis of time series, which may be stationary or nonstationary. Modelling and forecasting univariate time series is the starting point. For multiple stationary time series, Granger causality tests and vector autogressive models are presented. As the modelling of nonstationary uni- or multivariate time series is most important for real applied work, unit root and cointegration analysis as well as vector error correction models are a central topic. Tools for analysing nonstationary data are then transferred to the panel framework. Modelling the (multivariate) volatility of financial time series with autogressive conditional heteroskedastic models is also treated.
Book Synopsis International Macroeconomics by : Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
Download or read book International Macroeconomics written by Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2022-09-06 with total page 483 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An essential introduction to one of the most timely and important subjects in economics International Macroeconomics presents a rigorous and theoretically elegant treatment of real-world international macroeconomic problems, incorporating the latest economic research while maintaining a microfounded, optimizing, and dynamic general equilibrium approach. This one-of-a-kind textbook introduces a basic model and applies it to fundamental questions in international economics, including the determinants of the current account in small and large economies, processes of adjustment to shocks, the determinants of the real exchange rate, the role of fixed and flexible exchange rates in models with nominal rigidities, and interactions between monetary and fiscal policy. The book confronts theoretical predictions using actual data, highlighting both the power and limits of given theories and encouraging critical thinking. Provides a rigorous and elegant treatment of fundamental questions in international macroeconomics Brings undergraduate and master’s instruction in line with modern economic research Follows a microfounded, optimizing, and dynamic general equilibrium approach Addresses fundamental questions in international economics, such as the role of capital controls in the presence of financial frictions and balance-of-payments crises Uses real-world data to test the predictions of theoretical models Features a wealth of exercises at the end of each chapter that challenge students to hone their theoretical skills and scrutinize the empirical relevance of models Accompanied by a website with lecture slides for every chapter
