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Systematic Risk Debt Maturity And The Term Structure Of Credit Spreads
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Book Synopsis Systematic Risk, Debt Maturity, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads by : Hui Chen
Download or read book Systematic Risk, Debt Maturity, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads written by Hui Chen and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: We build a dynamic capital structure model to study the link between firms' systematic risk exposures and their time-varying debt maturity choices, as well as its implications for the term structure of credit spreads. Compared to short-term debt, long-term debt helps reduce rollover risks, but its illiquidity raises the costs of financing. With both default risk and liquidity costs changing over the business cycle, our calibrated model implies that debt maturity is pro-cyclical, firms with high systematic risk favor longer debt maturity, and that these firms will have more stable maturity structures over the cycle. Moreover, pro-cyclical maturity variation can significantly amplify the impact of aggregate shocks on the term structure of credit spreads, especially for firms with high beta, high leverage, or a lumpy maturity structure. We provide empirical evidence for the model predictions on both debt maturity and credit spreads
Book Synopsis Systematic Risk, Debt Maturity, and the Term Structure of Credit Spread by : Hui Chen
Download or read book Systematic Risk, Debt Maturity, and the Term Structure of Credit Spread written by Hui Chen and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Estimating the systematic component of credit spreads by : Sebastian Wilde
Download or read book Estimating the systematic component of credit spreads written by Sebastian Wilde and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2022-08-31 with total page 79 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Master's Thesis from the year 2022 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: 1,7, University of Hagen (Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaft, Lehrstuhl für Bank- und Finanzwirtschaft), language: English, abstract: Corporate bond credit spreads are much larger than historical default rates, which leads to an unexplained gap between the default premium component and total credit spread. This gap is referred to as the "credit spread puzzle" in the literature and has driven the discussion of the components of credit spreads in the past decades. The size of each component affects the decision of whether to purchase a particular class of bonds; this underlines its importance in risk management, portfolio management, and valuation. The first goal of the thesis is to provide a comprehensive review of the current state of research on how to decompose credit spreads and estimate their parts. Second, in an empirical study, the systematic risk in current EUR-denominated credit spreads is estimated and compared to the results of Elton et al. (2001). Furthermore, I analyze the regime-dependence of credit spreads for different cross-sections, as systematic risk has proven important in crisis periods. Finally, implications for the calculation of debt beta are derived as in business valuations it is possible to use a debt beta if the debt of the valuation object is subject to a systematic risk that leads to a signifcant risk premium demanded by debt providers. I show that the systematic part of the credit spread for observed EUR-denominated bond spreads from 2009 to 2021 can be assumed higher than in the US bond market, is regime-dependent and would have direct implications on the calculation and relevance of a debt beta for business valuations.
Book Synopsis Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads by : Hayne E. Leland
Download or read book Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads written by Hayne E. Leland and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Macro Factors in the Term Structure of Credit Spreads by : Jeffery D. Amato
Download or read book Macro Factors in the Term Structure of Credit Spreads written by Jeffery D. Amato and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We estimate arbitrage-free term structure models of US Treasury yields and spreads on BBB and B rated corporate bonds in a doubly-stochastic intensity-based framework. A novel feature of our analysis is the inclusion of macroeconomic variables -- indicators of real activity, inflation and financial conditions -- as well as latent factors, as drivers of term structure dynamics. Our results point to three key roles played by macro factors in the term structure of spreads: they have a significant impact on the level, and particularly the slope, of the curves; they are largely responsible for variation in the prices of systematic risk; and speculative grade spreads exhibit greater sensitivity to macro shocks than high grade spreads. In addition to estimating risk-neutral default intensities, we provide estimates of physical default intensities using data on Moody's KMV EDFs as a forward--looking proxy for default risk. We find that the real and financial activity indicators, along with filtered estimates of the latent factors from our term structure model, explain a large portion of the variation in EDFs across time. Furthermore, measures of the price of default event risk implied by estimates of physical and risk-neutral intensities indicate that compensation for default event risk is countercyclical, varies widely across the cycle, and is higher on average and more variable for higher-rated bonds.
Book Synopsis The Term Structure of Credit Spreads and the Economic Activity by :
Download or read book The Term Structure of Credit Spreads and the Economic Activity written by and published by . This book was released on with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We estimate arbitrage-free term structure models of US Treasury yields and spreads on BBB and B-rated corporate bonds in a doubly- stochastic intensity-based framework. A novel feature of our analysis is the inclusion of macroeconomic variables - indicators of real activity, inflation and financial conditions - as well as latent factors, as drivers of term structure dynamics. Our results point to three key roles played by macro factors in the term structure of spreads: they have a significant impact on the level, and particularly the slope, of the curves; they are largely responsible for variation in the prices of systematic risk; and speculative grade spreads exhibit greater sensitivity to macro shocks than high grade spreads. In addition to estimating risk-neutral default intensities, we provide estimates of physical default intensities using data on Moody's KMV EDFs"!as a forward-looking proxy for default risk. We find that the real and financial activity indicators, along with filtered estimates of the latent factors from our term structure model, explain a large portion of the variation in EDFs"!across time. Furthermore, measures of the price of default event risk implied by estimates of physical and risk-neutral intensities indicate that compensation for default event risk is countercyclical, varies widely across the cycle, and is higher on average and more variable for higher- rated bonds.
Book Synopsis The Term Structure of Credit Spreads and Credit Default Swaps - An Empirical Investigation by : Stefan Trück
Download or read book The Term Structure of Credit Spreads and Credit Default Swaps - An Empirical Investigation written by Stefan Trück and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate the term structure of credit spreads and credit default swaps for different rating categories. It is well-known quite that for issuers with lower credit quality higher spreads can be observed in the market and vice versa. However, empirical results on spreads for bonds with the same rating but different maturities are rather controversial. We provide empirical results on the term structure of credit spreads based on a large sample of Eurobonds and domestic bonds from EWU-countries. Further we investigate maturity effects on credit default swaps and compare the results to those of corporate bonds. We find that for both instruments a positive relationship between maturity and spreads could be observed for investment grade debt. For speculative grade debt the results are rather ambiguous. We also find that spreads for the same rating class and same maturity exhibit very high variation.
Book Synopsis Credit Spreads, Debt Maturity and Assets Other Than Those Included in Book Value by : Peter D. Easton
Download or read book Credit Spreads, Debt Maturity and Assets Other Than Those Included in Book Value written by Peter D. Easton and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Arora et al. (2014) provide evidence that the lack of precision in measurement of financial (i.e., level 1, 2, or 3) assets on the balance sheet of financial institutions appears to have affected short-term credit spreads more than long-term credit spreads during the global financial crisis (2007 to 2009). We extend their analysis by investigating the association between all firm assets not recorded on the balance sheet (unrecorded assets) and perceived default risks. We provide evidence that unrecorded assets are negatively associated with long-term credit default swap spreads (i.e., lower perceived default risk in the long-term) and positively associated with short-term credit default swap spreads (i.e., higher perceived default risk in the short-term). We attribute our findings to asset measurement issues and show that a stronger information environment may mitigate these issues for short-term default risk. Our evidence suggests that the relation between unrecorded assets and perceived default risk is context specific.
Book Synopsis Voluntary Debt Reduction by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Voluntary Debt Reduction written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1988-11-07 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides empirical evidence on the determinants of long-term growth performance in a sample of 55 developing countries grouped by income levels. The evidence indicates that a model incorporating the savings rate, export performance, expenditures on human capital development, the growth of population, and the real interest rate on external debt, explains the growth performance of these countries remarkably well. The model also suggests policies that would lead to higher long-run rates of growth.
Book Synopsis The COVID-19 Impact on Corporate Leverage and Financial Fragility by : Sharjil M. Haque
Download or read book The COVID-19 Impact on Corporate Leverage and Financial Fragility written by Sharjil M. Haque and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-11-05 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the impact of the COVID-19 recession on capital structure of publicly listed U.S. firms. Our estimates suggest leverage (Net Debt/Asset) decreased by 5.3 percentage points from the pre-shock mean of 19.6 percent, while debt maturity increased moderately. This de-leveraging effect is stronger for firms exposed to significant rollover risk, while firms whose businesses were most vulnerable to social distancing did not reduce leverage. We rationalize our evidence through a structural model of firm value that shows lower expected growth rate and higher volatility of cash flows following COVID-19 reduced optimal levels of corporate leverage. Model-implied optimal leverage indicates firms which did not de-lever became over-leveraged. We find default probability deteriorates most in large, over-leveraged firms and those that were stressed pre-COVID. Additional stress tests predict value of these firms will be less than one standard deviation away from default if cash flows decline by 20 percent.
Book Synopsis A Primer on Managing Sovereign Debt-Portfolio Risks by : Thordur Jonasson
Download or read book A Primer on Managing Sovereign Debt-Portfolio Risks written by Thordur Jonasson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-04-06 with total page 133 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides an overview of sovereign debt portfolio risks and discusses various liability management operations (LMOs) and instruments used by public debt managers to mitigate these risks. Debt management strategies analyzed in the context of helping reach debt portfolio targets and attain desired portfolio structures. Also, the paper outlines how LMOs could be integrated into a debt management strategy and serve as policy tools to reduce potential debt portfolio vulnerabilities. Further, the paper presents operational issues faced by debt managers, including the need to develop a risk management framework, interactions of debt management with fiscal policy, monetary policy, and financial stability, as well as efficient government bond markets.
Book Synopsis Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis by : Mr.Andreas A. Jobst
Download or read book Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis written by Mr.Andreas A. Jobst and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-02-27 with total page 93 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent global financial crisis has forced a re-examination of risk transmission in the financial sector and how it affects financial stability. Current macroprudential policy and surveillance (MPS) efforts are aimed establishing a regulatory framework that helps mitigate the risk from systemic linkages with a view towards enhancing the resilience of the financial sector. This paper presents a forward-looking framework ("Systemic CCA") to measure systemic solvency risk based on market-implied expected losses of financial institutions with practical applications for the financial sector risk management and the system-wide capital assessment in top-down stress testing. The suggested approach uses advanced contingent claims analysis (CCA) to generate aggregate estimates of the joint default risk of multiple institutions as a conditional tail expectation using multivariate extreme value theory (EVT). In addition, the framework also helps quantify the individual contributions to systemic risk and contingent liabilities of the financial sector during times of stress.
Book Synopsis International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards by :
Download or read book International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards written by and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2004 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Measuring Systemic Risk-Adjusted Liquidity (SRL) by : Andreas Jobst
Download or read book Measuring Systemic Risk-Adjusted Liquidity (SRL) written by Andreas Jobst and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Little progress has been made so far in addressing—in a comprehensive way—the externalities caused by impact of the interconnectedness within institutions and markets on funding and market liquidity risk within financial systems. The Systemic Risk-adjusted Liquidity (SRL) model combines option pricing with market information and balance sheet data to generate a probabilistic measure of the frequency and severity of multiple entities experiencing a joint liquidity event. It links a firm’s maturity mismatch between assets and liabilities impacting the stability of its funding with those characteristics of other firms, subject to individual changes in risk profiles and common changes in market conditions. This approach can then be used (i) to quantify an individual institution’s time-varying contribution to system-wide liquidity shortfalls and (ii) to price liquidity risk within a macroprudential framework that, if used to motivate a capital charge or insurance premia, provides incentives for liquidity managers to internalize the systemic risk of their decisions. The model can also accommodate a stress testing approach for institution-specific and/or general funding shocks that generate estimates of systemic liquidity risk (and associated charges) under adverse scenarios.
Book Synopsis The Fundamental Determinants of Credit Default Risk for European Large Complex Financial Institutions by : Jiri Podpiera
Download or read book The Fundamental Determinants of Credit Default Risk for European Large Complex Financial Institutions written by Jiri Podpiera and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-06-01 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper attempts to identify the fundamental variables that drive the credit default swaps during the initial phase of distress in selected European Large Complex Financial Institutions (LCFIs). It uses yearly data over 2004 - 08 for 29 European LCFIs. The results from a dynamic panel data estimator show that LCFIs’ business models, earnings potential, and economic uncertainty (represented by market expectations about the future risks of a particular LCFI and market views on prospects for economic growth) are among the most significant determinants of credit risk. The findings of the paper are broadly consistent with those of the literature on bank failure, where the determinants of the latter include the entire CAMELS structure - that is, Capital Adequacy, Asset Quality, Management Quality, Earnings Potential, Liquidity, and Sensitivity to Market Risk. By establishing a link between the financial and market fundamentals of LCFIs and their CDS spreads, the paper offers a potential tool for fundamentals-based vulnerability and early warning system for LCFIs.
Book Synopsis Structured Finance by : Stefano Caselli
Download or read book Structured Finance written by Stefano Caselli and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-10-09 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book, now in its second edition, provides an in-depth overview of all segments of the structured finance business, with particular reference to market trends, deal characteristics and deal structuring. The goal is to assist readers in gaining a clear understanding of the common features of structured finance transactions. The process of deal structuring for each type of transaction is carefully analyzed, with extensively updated chapters on asset securitization, project finance, structured leasing transactions and leveraged acquisitions. In the new edition, particular attention is paid to novel areas of intervention, such as public–private partnerships and non-performing loans in the resolution of bank restructuring. Although the subject of much criticism, structured finance, when used properly, offers an effective solution to the credit crunch that many European countries are suffering and is also a way to revive a single capital market for debt instruments. Readers will find this book to be an illuminating guide to the business and to the best market practices in organizing transactions. It will be of value for BSc and MSc finance students, professionals and consultants alike.
Book Synopsis Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy by : Carl Chiarella
Download or read book Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy written by Carl Chiarella and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-06-02 with total page 513 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This important new book from a group of Keynesian, but nonetheless technically-oriented economists explores one of the dominant paradigms in financial economics: the ‘intertemporal general equilibrium approach’.
