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Author : Jakub Mućk
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (138 download)
Download or read book Supply Chains Shocks and Inflation in Europe written by Jakub Mućk and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Viral V. Acharya
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (14 download)
Download or read book How Do Supply Shocks to Inflation Generalize? Evidence from the Pandemic Era in Europe written by Viral V. Acharya and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Vizhdan Boranova
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1616356898
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (163 download)
Download or read book Cars in Europe: Supply Chains and Spillovers During COVID-19 Times written by Vizhdan Boranova and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-01-14 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cars in Europe: Supply Chains and Spillovers during COVID-19 Times
Author : Selim Elekdag
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484355180
Total Pages : 30 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)
Download or read book Trade Linkages, Balance Sheets, and Spillovers written by Selim Elekdag and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-10-14 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Germany and the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia (the CE4) have been in a process of deepening economic integration which has lead to the development of a dynamic supply chain within Europe—the Germany-Central European Supply Chain (GCESC). Model-based simulations suggest two key policy implications: First, as a reflection of strengthening trade linkages, German fiscal spillovers to the CE4 and more broadly to the rest of the euro area, have increased over time, but are still relatively small. This is explained by the supply chain nature of trade integration: final demand in Germany is not necessarily the main determinant of CE4 exports to Germany. Second, increased trade openness in both Germany and the CE4 implies a greater exposure of the GCESC to global shocks. However, owing to its strong fundamentals—including sound balance sheets and its safe haven status— Germany plays the role of a regional anchor of stability by better absorbing shocks from other trading partners instead of amplifying their transmission across the GCESC.
Author : Raju Huidrom
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498319017
Total Pages : 76 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)
Download or read book Trade Tensions, Global Value Chains, and Spillovers written by Raju Huidrom and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-06-12 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Europe is deeply integrated into global value chains and recent trade tensions raise the question of how European economies would be affected by the introduction of tariffs or other trade barriers. This paper estimates the impact of trade shocks and growth spillovers using value added measures to better gauge the associated costs across European countries.
Author : Julian Di Giovanni
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (133 download)
Download or read book Global Supply Chain Pressures, International Trade, and Inflation written by Julian Di Giovanni and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "We study the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on the Euro Area inflation in comparison to other countries such as the United States over the two year period 2020-21. Our model-based calibration exercises deliver four key results: 1) Compositional effects – the switch from services to goods consumption – are amplified through global input-output linkages, affecting both trade and inflation. 2) International trade did not respond to changes in GDP as strongly as it did during the 2008-09 crisis despite strong demand for goods. These lower trade elasticities in part reflect supply chain bottlenecks. 3) Inflation can be higher under sector-specific labor shortages relative to a scenario with no such supply shocks. 4) Foreign shocks and global supply chain bottlenecks played an outsized role relative to domestic aggregate demand shocks in explaining Euro Area inflation over 2020-21. These four results imply that policies aimed at stimulating aggregate demand would not have produced as high an inflation as the one observed in the data without the negative sectoral supply shocks."--Abstract.
Author : Mahir Binici
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)
Download or read book Here Comes the Change: The Role of Global and Domestic Factors in Post-Pandemic Inflation in Europe written by Mahir Binici and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-12-09 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global inflation has surged to 7.5 percent in August 2022, from an average of 2.1 percent in the decade preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, threatening to become an entrenched phenomenon. This paper disentangles the confluence of contributing factors to the post-pandemic rise in consumer price inflation, using monthly data and a battery of econometric methodologies covering a panel of 30 European countries over the period 2002-2022. We find that while global factors continue to shape inflation dynamics throughout Europe, country-specific factors, including monetary and fiscal policy responses to the crisis, have also gained greater prominence in determining consumer price inflation during the pandemic period. Coupled with increasing persistence in inflation, these structural shifts call for significant and an extended period of monetary tightening and fiscal realignment.
Author : Mr. Serhan Cevik
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 31 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)
Download or read book This Is Going to Hurt: Weather Anomalies, Supply Chain Pressures and Inflation written by Mr. Serhan Cevik and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-04-05 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As climate change accelerates, the frequency and severity of extreme weather events are expected to worsen and have greater adverse consequences for ecosystems, physical infrastructure, and economic activity across the world. This paper investigates how weather anomalies affect global supply chains and inflation dynamics. Using monthly data for six large and well-diversified economies (China, the Euro area, Japan, Korea, the United Kingdom, and the United States) over the period 1997-2021, we implement a structural vector autoregressive model and document that weather anomalies could disrupt supply chains and subsequently lead to inflationary pressures. Our results—based on high-frequency data and robust to alternative estimation methodologies—show that these effects vary across countries, depending on the severity of weather shocks and vulnerability to supply chain disruptions. The impact of weather shocks on supply chains and inflation dynamics is likely to become more pronounced with accelerating climate change that can have non-linear effects. These findings have important policy implications. Central bankers should consider the impact of weather anomalies on supply chains and inflation dynamics to prevent entrenching second-round effects and de-anchoring of inflation expectations. More directly, however, governments can invest more for climate change adaptation to strengthen critical infrastructure and thereby minimize supply chain disruptions.
Author : Oya Celasun
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 51 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)
Download or read book Supply Bottlenecks: Where, Why, How Much, and What Next? written by Oya Celasun and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-02-17 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Supply constraints hurt the economic recovery and boosted inflation in 2021. We find that in the euro area, manufacturing output and GDP would have been about 6 and 2 percent higher, respectively, and half of the rise in manufacturing producer price inflation would not have occurred in the absence of supply bottlenecks. Globally, shutdowns can explain up to 40 percent of the supply shocks. Sectors that are more reliant on differentiated inputs—such as autos—are harder hit. Late last year industry experts expected supply shortages for autos to largely dissipate by mid-2022 and broader bottlenecks by end-2022, but given the Omicron wave, disruptions will last for longer, possibly into 2023. With supply constraints adding to price pressures, the challenge for policymakers is to support recovery without allowing high inflation to become entrenched.
Author : Lina Bukeviciute
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 50 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)
Download or read book The Functioning of the Food Supply Chain and Its Effect on Food Prices in the European Union written by Lina Bukeviciute and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The sharp fluctuations in food price inflation at a time of great uncertainty about the economic outlook have raised questions about the functioning of the European food supply chain. While the observed changes in food prices in EU Member States can be linked to developments in the global demand and supply for agricultural commodities, inefficiencies in the functioning of the food supply chain, in terms of competition and regulation, may have played an important role as well. In particular, an analysis of the transmission mechanisms linking agricultural commodity prices with producer and consumer prices shows that the shock caused by the upsurge in agricultural commodities and energy prices in the second half of 2007 and the first half of 2008 was absorbed differently across EU Member States. Crosscountry differences in the regulatory framework appear to have contributed to this fragmentation of the European Single Market. Moreover, there are indications of differences in the conditions of competition across Member States. Finally, consolidation is taking place throughout the food supply chain. While such consolidation can lead to efficiency gains, it may also worsen the conditions of competition to the detriment of consumers and businesses. Keywords: Food, regulation, market structure, competition, pricing. -- (provided by publisher).
Author : Lili Yan Ing
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1351061526
Total Pages : 442 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (51 download)
Download or read book World Trade Evolution written by Lili Yan Ing and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-10-08 with total page 442 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book provides theoretical and empirical evidence on how world trade evolves, how trade affects resource allocation, how trade competition affects productivity, how China shock affects world trade and how trade affects large and small countries. It is a useful reference which focuses on new approaches to international trade by looking into country-specific as well as firm-product level-specific cases.
Author : Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1616356154
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (163 download)
Download or read book The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation written by Mr. Kangni R Kpodar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-11-12 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.
Author : David Finck
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9789523234291
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (342 download)
Download or read book The Macroeconomic Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions written by David Finck and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Highly interconnected global supply chains make countries vulnerable to sup ply chain disruptions. This paper estimates the macroeconomic effects of global supply chain shocks for the euro area. Our empirical model combines busi ness cycle variables with data from international container trade. Using a novel identification scheme, we augment conventional sign restrictions on the impulse responses by narrative information about three episodes: the Tohoku earthquake ̄ in 2011, the Suez Canal obstruction in 2021, and the Shanghai backlog in 2022. We show that a global supply chain shock causes a drop in euro area real economic activity and a strong increase in consumer prices. Over a horizon of one year, the global supply chain shock explains about 30% of inflation dynamics. We also use regional data on supply chain pressure to isolate shocks originating in China. Our results show that supply chain disruptions originating in China are an important driver for unexpected movements in industrial production, while disruptions originating outside China are an especially important driver for the dynamics of consumer prices.
Author : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135179778
Total Pages : 402 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (351 download)
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Author : Timothy J. Kehoe
Publisher : U of Minnesota Press
ISBN 13 : 1452965846
Total Pages : 643 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (529 download)
Download or read book A Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America, 1960–2017 written by Timothy J. Kehoe and published by U of Minnesota Press. This book was released on 2022-01-11 with total page 643 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A major, new, and comprehensive look at six decades of macroeconomic policies across the region What went wrong with the economic development of Latin America over the past half-century? Along with periods of poor economic performance, the region’s countries have been plagued by a wide variety of economic crises. This major new work brings together dozens of leading economists to explore the economic performance of the ten largest countries in South America and of Mexico. Together they advance the fundamental hypothesis that, despite different manifestations, these crises all have been the result of poorly designed or poorly implemented fiscal and monetary policies. Each country is treated in its own section of the book, with a lead chapter presenting a comprehensive database of the country’s fiscal, monetary, and economic data from 1960 to 2017. The chapters are drawn from one-day academic conferences—hosted in all but one case, in the focus country—with participants including noted economists and former leading policy makers. Cowritten with Nobel Prize winner Thomas J. Sargent, the editors’ introduction provides a conceptual framework for analyzing fiscal and monetary policy in countries around the world, particularly those less developed. A final chapter draws conclusions and suggests directions for further research. A vital resource for advanced undergraduate and graduate students of economics and for economic researchers and policy makers, A Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America, 1960–2017 goes further than any book in stressing both the singularities and the similarities of the economic histories of Latin America’s largest countries. Contributors: Mark Aguiar, Princeton U; Fernando Alvarez, U of Chicago; Manuel Amador, U of Minnesota; Joao Ayres, Inter-American Development Bank; Saki Bigio, UCLA; Luigi Bocola, Stanford U; Francisco J. Buera, Washington U, St. Louis; Guillermo Calvo, Columbia U; Rodrigo Caputo, U of Santiago; Roberto Chang, Rutgers U; Carlos Javier Charotti, Central Bank of Paraguay; Simón Cueva, TNK Economics; Julián P. Díaz, Loyola U Chicago; Sebastian Edwards, UCLA; Carlos Esquivel, Rutgers U; Eduardo Fernández Arias, Peking U; Carlos Fernández Valdovinos (former Central Bank of Paraguay); Arturo José Galindo, Banco de la República, Colombia; Márcio Garcia, PUC-Rio; Felipe González Soley, U of Southampton; Diogo Guillen, PUC-Rio; Lars Peter Hansen, U of Chicago; Patrick Kehoe, Stanford U; Carlos Gustavo Machicado Salas, Bolivian Catholic U; Joaquín Marandino, U Torcuato Di Tella; Alberto Martin, U Pompeu Fabra; Cesar Martinelli, George Mason U; Felipe Meza, Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México; Pablo Andrés Neumeyer, U Torcuato Di Tella; Gabriel Oddone, U de la República; Daniel Osorio, Banco de la República; José Peres Cajías, U of Barcelona; David Perez-Reyna, U de los Andes; Fabrizio Perri, Minneapolis Fed; Andrew Powell, Inter-American Development Bank; Diego Restuccia, U of Toronto; Diego Saravia, U de los Andes; Thomas J. Sargent, New York U; José A. Scheinkman, Columbia U; Teresa Ter-Minassian (formerly IMF); Marco Vega, Pontificia U Católica del Perú; Carlos Végh, Johns Hopkins U; François R. Velde, Chicago Fed; Alejandro Werner, IMF.
Author : Jongrim Ha
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464813760
Total Pages : 513 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)
Download or read book Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies written by Jongrim Ha and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-02-24 with total page 513 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.
Author : Mr.Christian H Ebeke
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484324803
Total Pages : 33 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)
Download or read book The Granular Origins of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Europe written by Mr.Christian H Ebeke and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-11-07 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the microeconomic origins of aggregate economic fluctuations in Europe. It examines the relevance of idiosyncratic shocks at the top 100 large firms (the granular shocks) in explaining aggregate macroeconomic fluctuations. The paper also assesses the strength of spillovers from large firms onto SMEs. Using firm-level data covering over 14 million firms and eight european countries (Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal and Spain), we find that: (i) 40 percent of the variance in GDP in the sample can be explained by idiosyncratic shocks at large firms; (ii) positive granular shocks at large firms spill over to domestic SMEs’ output, especially if SMEs’ balance sheets are healthy and if SMEs belong to the services and manufacturing sectors.
