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Supply And Demand In Disaggregated Keynesian Economies With An Application To The Covid 19 Crisis
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Book Synopsis Supply and Demand in Disaggregated Keynesian Economies with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis by : David Rezza Baqaee
Download or read book Supply and Demand in Disaggregated Keynesian Economies with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis written by David Rezza Baqaee and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the effects of supply and demand shocks in a general disaggregated model with multiple sectors, factors, and input-output linkages, as well as downward nominal wage rigidities and a zero lower bound constraint. In response to shocks, some sectors become tight and operate at full capacity while others become slack and under-utilize the resources available to them. We use the model to understand how the Covid-19 crisis, an omnibus of various supply and demand shocks, affects output, unemployment, and inflation. Throughout the analysis, we focus on the role of the production network and of the elasticities of substitution. We establish that under some conditions, the details of the production network can be summarized by simple sufficient statistics. We use these sufficient statistics to conduct global comparative statics, and illustrate the intuition for our results using a nonlinear AS-AD representation of the model. Negative sectoral supply shocks and shocks to the sectoral composition of demand are necessarily stagflationary, whereas negative aggregate demand shocks are deflationary. The effects of the former are stronger and the effects of the latter are weaker with stronger complementarities in production and in consumption. These shocks interact and are amplified or mitigated through nonlinearities. We quantify our results using disaggregated data from the U.S.
Book Synopsis Keynesian Production Networks and the Covid-19 Crisis by : David Baqaee
Download or read book Keynesian Production Networks and the Covid-19 Crisis written by David Baqaee and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Covid-19 crisis is an unusual and seemingly all-encompassing economic shock. On the one hand, it was unquestionably a negative demand shock that, for fixed prices and incomes, reduced household spending. On the other hand, it was also unquestionably a negative supply shock that reduced firms' ability to maintain production at pre-pandemic prices and quantities. These negative shocks affected different industries differently: whereas some producers easily switched to remote-work and maintained both employment and production, industries that required face-to-face contact were forced to reduce production capacity and employment. We consider a stripped-down version of the model presented in Baqaee and Farhi (2020). Despite its simplicity, the model nevertheless allows for an arbitrary input-output network, complementarities in both consumption and production, incomplete markets, downward nominal wage rigidity, and a zero-lower bound. In this sense, it contains many of the ingredients typically considered to be important for understanding the economic fallout from Covid-19. Nevertheless, despite allowing for these realistic ingredients, this model has a stark property: factor income shares at the initial equilibrium are global sufficient statistics for the input-output network. This article clarifies clarifies what ingredients must be added to a model if the production network is to play an important role in the propagation of shocks.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19 by : Veronica Guerrieri
Download or read book Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19 written by Veronica Guerrieri and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We present a theory of Keynesian supply shocks: supply shocks that trigger changes in aggregate demand larger than the shocks themselves. We argue that the economic shocks associated to the COVID-19 epidemic--shutdowns, layoffs, and firm exits--may have this feature. In one-sector economies supply shocks are never Keynesian. We show that this is a general result that extend to economies with incomplete markets and liquidity constrained consumers. In economies with multiple sectors Keynesian supply shocks are possible, under some conditions. A 50% shock that hits all sectors is not the same as a 100% shock that hits half the economy. Incomplete markets make the conditions for Keynesian supply shocks more likely to be met. Firm exit and job destruction can amplify the initial effect, aggravating the recession. We discuss the effects of various policies. Standard fiscal stimulus can be less effective than usual because the fact that some sectors are shut down mutes the Keynesian multiplier feedback. Monetary policy, as long as it is unimpeded by the zero lower bound, can have magnified effects, by preventing firm exits. Turning to optimal policy, closing down contact-intensive sectors and providing full insurance payments to affected workers can achieve the first-best allocation, despite the lower per-dollar potency of fiscal policy.
Book Synopsis Nonlinear Production Networks with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis by : David Baqaee
Download or read book Nonlinear Production Networks with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis written by David Baqaee and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the effects of negative supply shocks and shocks to the composition of final demand on aggregate output in a disaggregated neoclassical model with multiple sectors, factors, and input-output linkages. We show how nonlinearities associated with complementarities in consumption and production amplify the effect of negative supply shocks by creating supply bottlenecks and disrupting supply chain networks. These nonlinearities are particularly potent when the shocks are more heterogeneous as the worst-affected sectors drag down the other sectors. Nonlinearities are strengthened when changes in preferences lead households to tilt the composition of their demand towards the crippled sectors directly and indirectly through their supply chains. And nonlinearities are further intensified when factors cannot easily be reallocated across sectors to reinforce weak links. A quantitative investigation suggests that nonlinearities may amplify the impact of the Covid-19 shock by between 10\%-100\%, depending on the horizon of analysis and the exact size of the shocks.
Book Synopsis COVID-19 and Emerging Markets by : Cem Çakmaklı
Download or read book COVID-19 and Emerging Markets written by Cem Çakmaklı and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: We quantify the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 for a small open economy by calibrating a SIR-multi-sector-macro model to Turkey. Sectoral supply shocks are based on the proximity requirements in each sector and the ability to work from home. Physical proximity determines the supply shock through its effect on infection rates. Sectoral demand shocks incorporate domestic and foreign demand, both of which adjust with infection rates. We calibrate demand shocks during COVID-19 using real-time credit card purchase data. Our results show that the optimal policy, which yields the lowest economic cost and saves the maximum number of lives, can be achieved under a full lockdown of 39 days. Economic costs are much larger for an open economy as the shocks are amplified through the international production network. A decline in foreign demand leads to losses in domestic sectors through international input-output linkages, accounting for a third of the total output loss. In addition, the reduction in capital flows deprives the network from its trade financing needs, where sectors with larger external finance needs experience larger losses. The policy options are limited given sparse fiscal resources to fight the pandemic domestically, while serving the external debt. We present historical evidence from 2001 crisis of Turkey, when fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies were employed altogether to deal with a triple crisis of balance of payments, banking, and sovereign debt
Book Synopsis Sectoral Shocks and Spillovers: An Application to COVID-19 by : Mr. Sonali Das
Download or read book Sectoral Shocks and Spillovers: An Application to COVID-19 written by Mr. Sonali Das and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-07-30 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the role of sectoral spillovers in propagating sectoral shocks in the broader economy, both in the past and during the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, we study how shocks that occur within a sector itself and spillovers from shocks to other sectors affect sectoral activity, for a large sample of countries from 1995 to 2014. We find that both supply and demand shocks—measured as changes in, respectively, productivity and government purchases at the sector level—have large spillover effects on sector-level gross value added and on a sector’s share of the economy. We then use these historical estimates, together with the network structure of global production, to quantify the spillovers from the economic shock associated with the pandemic. We find spillover effects to be sizeable, making up a significant fraction of the overall decline in activity in 2020.Our results have implications for the design of policies with a sectoral dimension.
Book Synopsis The Economic and Financial Impacts of the COVID-19 Crisis Around the World by : Allen N. Berger
Download or read book The Economic and Financial Impacts of the COVID-19 Crisis Around the World written by Allen N. Berger and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2023-09-05 with total page 522 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Economic and Financial Impacts of the COVID-19 Crisis Around the World: Expect the Unexpected provides an informed, research-based in-depth understanding of the COVID-19 crisis, its impacts on households, nonfinancial firms, banks, and financial market participants, and the effectiveness of the reactions of governments and policymakers in the United States and around the world. It provides reflections and perspectives on the social costs and benefits of various policies undertaken and a toolkit of preventive measures to deal with crises beyond the COVID-19 crisis. Authors Allen N. Berger, Mustafa U. Karakaplan, and Raluca A. Roman apply their expertise to the research and data on the COVID-19 economic crisis as well as draw on their own rich research experience. They take a holistic approach that compares and contrasts this crisis with other economic and financial crises and assesses economic and financial behavior and government policies in the booms before crises and the aftermaths following them, as well as the crises themselves. They do all this with a keen eye on “Expecting the Unexpected future crises, and policies that might anticipate them and provide better outcomes for society. Serves as a compendium of available research and data on COVID-19, policies in response to the pandemic, and its effects on the real economy, banking sector, and financial markets Contextualizes the COVID-19 economic crisis by comparing it to two other global crises from the past: the Crash of 1929 and the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2009 Helps illustrate how crises that originate in financial markets and in the banking sector differ from each other as well as from the COVID-19 crisis that harmed the real economy first Compares the policies and outcomes of nations to the COVID-19 pandemic and assesses their costs and benefits, with potential implications for prospective future crises
Book Synopsis Studies in International Economics and Finance by : Naoyuki Yoshino
Download or read book Studies in International Economics and Finance written by Naoyuki Yoshino and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-03-30 with total page 671 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This festschrift volume presents discussions on contemporary issues in international economics and finance. It is aimed to serve as a reference material for researchers. There are two broad sections of the book -- International Macroeconomics and International Finance. The chapters in the International Macroeconomics section discuss critical topics like aggregate level macro model for India with a new Keynesian perspective, balance of payments, service sector exports, foreign exchange constraints for import demands, foreign direct investment and knowledge spill over, the relationship between forex rate fluctuation and investment, Institutional quality-trade openness-economic growth nexus, currency crises and debt-deficit relationship in the BRICS countries in the backdrop of COVID-19. Apart from these, various analytical issues related to macroeconomic policies are also covered in this section. The topics discussed includes the nature of forex market interventions, the issue of disinvestment and privatization, changing nature of fiscal policy, the inflation-growth nexus, macroeconomic simulation modelling, measuring core inflation, central bank credibility, monetary policy, inflation targeting, Infrastructure, trade, unemployment and inequality nexus. In the International Finance section, topics such as COVID-19 induced financial crisis, commodity futures volatility, stock market connectivity, volatility persistence, determinants of sovereign bond yields, FII and stock market volatility, cryptocurrency price formation, financialization of Indian commodity market, and a Keynesian view of the financial crisis are discussed. Overall, thirty two chapters in the volume discuss cutting edge research in the areas of the two sections. A tour de force... a lucid guide to some of the diverse and complex issues in International Macroeconomics and Finance. This collection of scholarly works is a fitting tribute to respected Prof. Bandi Kamaiah and his enviable academic contributions. - Prof. Y V Reddy, Former Governor, Reserve Bank of India This volume comprising thoughtful essays by our leading scholars on some of important policy issues that India is facing is indeed a rich tribute to Professor Bandi Kamaiah . This book will greatly benefit the academic community as well as our policy makers. - Prof. Vijay Kelkar, Chairman, 13th Finance Commission of India; Chairman, India Development Foundation, Mumbai, India Noted economists from India and abroad gather to apply the rigorous searchlight that Professor Bandi Kamaiah used so effectively in his career. Major current topics in macroeconomics and international finance are effectively explored in the volume. - Prof. Ashima Goyal, Emeritus Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India; and Member, Monetary Policy Committee of Reserve Bank of India This volume of 32 papers in macroeconomics, international economics, and international finance is intended as a tribute to the eminent econometrician , Prof B Kamaiah. Post-graduate students and researchers will find much valuable literature in the volume, which is a fitting tribute to Prof Kamaiah. The editors and authors deserve rich compliments. - Prof. K L Krishna, Former Director, Delhi School of Economics, New Delhi, India I am so happy to hear that Dr. Kamaiah's colleagues and ex-students are bringing out a special volume of articles in his honor. Nothing can be more appropriate. Dr. Kamaiah, being a man of tremendous publications, deserves this tribute. I wish all the luck and success to the new book. - Prof. Kishore Kulkarni, Distinguished Professor of Economics, Metropolitan State University of Denver, USA
Book Synopsis After-Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Prospects for Medium-Term Economic Damage by : Mr. Philip Barrett
Download or read book After-Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Prospects for Medium-Term Economic Damage written by Mr. Philip Barrett and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-07-30 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a severe global recession with differential impacts within and across countries. This paper examines the possible persistent effects (scarring) of the pandemic on the economy and the channels through which they may occur. History suggests that deep recessions often leave long-lived scars, particularly to productivity. Importantly, financial instabilities—typically associated with worse scarring—have been largely avoided in the current crisis so far. While medium-term output losses are anticipated to be lower than after the global financial crisis, they are still expected to be substantial. The degree of expected scarring varies across countries, depending on the structure of economies and the size of the policy response. Emerging market and developing economies are expected to suffer more scarring than advanced economies.
Book Synopsis Cars in Europe: Supply Chains and Spillovers During COVID-19 Times by : Vizhdan Boranova
Download or read book Cars in Europe: Supply Chains and Spillovers During COVID-19 Times written by Vizhdan Boranova and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-01-14 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cars in Europe: Supply Chains and Spillovers during COVID-19 Times
Book Synopsis Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Fall 2020 by : Janice Eberly
Download or read book Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Fall 2020 written by Janice Eberly and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2021-06-22 with total page 452 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) provides academic and business economists, government officials, and members of the financial and business communities with timely research on current economic issues.
Book Synopsis Economic Challenges for Europe After the Pandemic by : Luigi Paganetto
Download or read book Economic Challenges for Europe After the Pandemic written by Luigi Paganetto and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-10-05 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on the recovery and new normal in a post-Covid scenario, drawing important lessons from the pandemic and proposing new ideas for sustainable development, endogenous dynamism, and inclusive growth. The book presents different ideas and perspectives about the present and the future, reflecting on four main fields of our economic reality: macroeconomics, governments, technology, and society. It discusses important topics for future economic scenarios, beginning with an estimation of the economic consequences of the absence of an equitable distribution of vaccines. Further topics discussed include the government’s debts sustainability, the probability of an inflation/deflation or of a stagflation scenario, as well as the impact of US and European economic policies on economic growth. The book further investigates the economic costs of the pandemic, which have fallen most heavily on those least able to bear them. It examines governments subsidies, which supported people and firms through wage subsidies, unemployment benefits, and other fiscal measures, and discusses the question of whether more investment in health care, education, and other public services will still be needed. In a time of immense change and global challenges, this book is a must-read for scholars, researchers, and students of economics, as well as policy-makers interested in a better understanding of economic growth, energy, environment, migration, development, digital transformation, and demography.
Book Synopsis The COVID-19 Disruption and the Global Health Challenge by : Vincenzo Atella
Download or read book The COVID-19 Disruption and the Global Health Challenge written by Vincenzo Atella and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2023-11-15 with total page 578 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 Disruption and the Global Health Dilemma provides an historical accounting of the response to the COVID-19 pandemic through the eyes of the largest pubic health system in the United States, one that served the hardest hit neighborhoods in New York City. The book offers a roadmap to guide healthcare systems and their providers in the event of future pandemics. Readers will learn from healthcare providers at the epicenter of the pandemic in New York City about surge staffing and level loading, along with tips from the ED and ICUs on how to respond to an unprecedented influx of inpatients. Provides historical context of the COVID-19 response by NYC Health + Hospitals Covers how to respond to mass influx of patients and sustained crisis over a year+ Presents information on standing up genomic sequencing
Book Synopsis Capitalism at a Crossroads by : Ali Ari
Download or read book Capitalism at a Crossroads written by Ali Ari and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-02-25 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the current capitalist system has been increasingly struggling to respond to the problems and uncertainties in the global economy, this book aims to identify the main economic, social, and ecological problems and discusses solutions for a more inclusive and sustainable economic system. Written by an international selection of contributors, it takes a wider perspective beyond classical orthodox economics. By doing so, this book covers a wide range of topics, such as global warming and climate change, food and energy scarcity, rising inequality and debt issues, health, ecological, economic, and political crises, degrowth, green new deals, solidarity, economy, artificial intelligence, technological change, smart solutions, and smart cities. Discussing these topics, the book presents answers to the question of whether the current capitalist system is viable and provides suggestions for a fair, inclusive, and modern economic system. Taking a comprehensive approach, the book will appeal to students, scholars, and researchers of heterodox and alternative economics.
Book Synopsis NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2022 by : Martin Eichenbaum
Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2022 written by Martin Eichenbaum and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2023-05-15 with total page 478 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Authoritative takes on the most current and pressing issues in macroeconomics today. The NBER Macroeconomics Annual provides a forum for leading economists to participate in important debates in macroeconomics and to report on major developments in macroeconomic analysis and policy. The NBER Macroeconomics Annual brings together leading scholars to discuss five research papers on central issues in contemporary macroeconomics. First, Andrea Eisfeldt, Antonio Falato, and Mindy Xiaolan document the rise of a new class of worker that receives part of its labor income as equity-based compensation, its role in the recent decline in the labor share of income, and implications for the returns to skilled labor and the implied capital-skill complementarity. Next, Michael Bauer and Eric Swanson focus on monetary policy shocks and argue the correlation between estimated monetary surprises and previously available information can be explained by uncertainty about the parameters of the monetary policy rule. Using new data and methods they find effects of monetary policy on macroeconomic variables that are much larger than previously estimated. Job Boerma and Loukas Karabarbounis provide a framework for quantitatively exploring the gap in wealth between White and Black Americans over the past 150 years and examine the effectiveness of reparations as a tool for closing this gap. Guido Menzio considers workers who do not have rational expectations, and whose “stubborn” beliefs change the response of wages to technology shocks, resulting in sticky wages. He finds that the larger the fraction of workers with stubborn beliefs, the more volatile unemployment is. Finally, Rishabh Aggarwal, Adrien Auclert, Matthew Rognlie, and Ludwig Straub investigate the growth—particularly in the United States—of private savings, current account deficits, and fiscal deficits after 2020. They argue that fiscal deficits lead to large and persistent increases in private savings and current account deficits.
Book Synopsis Covid-19 and lockdown policies: A structural simulation model of a bottom-up recession in four countries by : Robinson, Sherman
Download or read book Covid-19 and lockdown policies: A structural simulation model of a bottom-up recession in four countries written by Robinson, Sherman and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-04-19 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper considers different approaches to modelling the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic/lockdown shocks. We review different modelling strategies and argue that, given the nature of the bottom-up recession caused by the pandemic/lockdowns, simulation models of the shocks should be based on a social accounting matrix (SAM) that includes both disaggregated sectoral data and the national accounts in a unified framework. SAM-based models have been widely used to analyze the impact of natural disasters, which are comparable to pandemic/lockdown shocks. The pandemic/lockdown shocks occurred rapidly, in weeks or months, not gradually over a year or more. In such a short period, adjustments through smooth changes in wages, prices and production methods are not plausible. Rather, initial adjustments occur through changes in quantities, altering demand and supply of commodities and employment in affected sectors. In this environment, we use a linear SAM-multiplier model that specifies a fixed-coefficient production technology, linear demand system, fixed savings rates, and fixed prices. There are three different kinds of sectoral shocks that are included in the model: (1) changes in demand due to household lockdown, (2) changes in supply due to industry lockdown, and (3) changes in demand due to induced macro shocks. At the detailed industry level, data are provided for all three shocks and the model imposes the largest of the three. We applied the model on a monthly time step for the period March to June 2020 for four countries: US, UK, Mexico, and South Africa. The models closely replicate observed macro results (GDP and employment) for the period. The results provide detailed structural information on the evolution of the different economies month-by-month and provide a framework for forward-looking scenario analysis. We also use the SAM-multiplier model to estimate the macro stimulus impacts of policies to support affected households. The model focuses attention on the structural features of the economy that define the multiplier process (who gets the additional income and what do they do with it) and provides a more nuanced analysis of the stimulus impact of income support programs than can be done with aggregated macro models.
Book Synopsis Using Macroeconomic Frameworks to Analyze the Impact of COVID-19 by : Mr. Ales Bulir
Download or read book Using Macroeconomic Frameworks to Analyze the Impact of COVID-19 written by Mr. Ales Bulir and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-04 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This technical note and manual (TNM) addresses the following issues: • Evaluating the full implications from the policies adopted to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy requires a well-developed macroeconomic framework. This note illustrates how such frameworks were used to analyze Colombia and Cambodia's shock impact at the beginning of the pandemic. • The use of macroeconomic frameworks is not to infer general policy conclusions from abstract models or empirical analysis but to help policymakers think through and articulate coherent forecasts, scenarios, and policy responses. • The two country cases illustrate how to construct a baseline scenario consistent with a COVID-19 shock within structural macroeconomic models. The scenario is built gradually to incorporate the available information, the pandemic's full effects, and the policy responses. • The results demonstrate the value of combining close attention to the data, near-term forecasting, and model-based analyses to support coherent policies.
