Sectoral Shocks And Spillovers An Application To Covid 19

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Sectoral Shocks and Spillovers: An Application to COVID-19

Author : Mr. Sonali Das
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513587390
Total Pages : 26 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Sectoral Shocks and Spillovers: An Application to COVID-19 by : Mr. Sonali Das

Download or read book Sectoral Shocks and Spillovers: An Application to COVID-19 written by Mr. Sonali Das and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-07-30 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the role of sectoral spillovers in propagating sectoral shocks in the broader economy, both in the past and during the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, we study how shocks that occur within a sector itself and spillovers from shocks to other sectors affect sectoral activity, for a large sample of countries from 1995 to 2014. We find that both supply and demand shocks—measured as changes in, respectively, productivity and government purchases at the sector level—have large spillover effects on sector-level gross value added and on a sector’s share of the economy. We then use these historical estimates, together with the network structure of global production, to quantify the spillovers from the economic shock associated with the pandemic. We find spillover effects to be sizeable, making up a significant fraction of the overall decline in activity in 2020.Our results have implications for the design of policies with a sectoral dimension.

Real Sectoral Spillovers: A Dynamic Factor Analysis of the Great Recession

Author : MissNan Li
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484354583
Total Pages : 52 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Real Sectoral Spillovers: A Dynamic Factor Analysis of the Great Recession by : MissNan Li

Download or read book Real Sectoral Spillovers: A Dynamic Factor Analysis of the Great Recession written by MissNan Li and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-05-09 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies changes in the transmission of common versus sectoral idiosyncratic shocks across different U.S. nonfarm business sectors during the Great Recession, and evaluates the cross-sectoral spillovers. Shocks are identified by dynamic factor methods. We find that the Great Recession is largely a time of heightened impact of common shocks— which accounts for 3/4 of aggregate volatility—and large spillovers of negative financerelated shocks. Moreover, in contrast with the earlier literature that failed to find a significant role of sectoral shocks (propagated through the input-output linkages across sectors) in driving variability in aggregate industry output, this study allows spillovers of shocks to operate through other mechanisms intertemporally. We find that prior to the recession the majority of aggregate fluctuations is explained by sector-specific shocks.

COVID-19 and Emerging Markets

Author : Cem Çakmaklı
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (117 download)

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Book Synopsis COVID-19 and Emerging Markets by : Cem Çakmaklı

Download or read book COVID-19 and Emerging Markets written by Cem Çakmaklı and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: We quantify the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 for a small open economy by calibrating a SIR-multi-sector-macro model to Turkey. Sectoral supply shocks are based on the proximity requirements in each sector and the ability to work from home. Physical proximity determines the supply shock through its effect on infection rates. Sectoral demand shocks incorporate domestic and foreign demand, both of which adjust with infection rates. We calibrate demand shocks during COVID-19 using real-time credit card purchase data. Our results show that the optimal policy, which yields the lowest economic cost and saves the maximum number of lives, can be achieved under a full lockdown of 39 days. Economic costs are much larger for an open economy as the shocks are amplified through the international production network. A decline in foreign demand leads to losses in domestic sectors through international input-output linkages, accounting for a third of the total output loss. In addition, the reduction in capital flows deprives the network from its trade financing needs, where sectors with larger external finance needs experience larger losses. The policy options are limited given sparse fiscal resources to fight the pandemic domestically, while serving the external debt. We present historical evidence from 2001 crisis of Turkey, when fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies were employed altogether to deal with a triple crisis of balance of payments, banking, and sovereign debt

After-Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Prospects for Medium-Term Economic Damage

Author : Mr. Philip Barrett
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513587900
Total Pages : 23 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis After-Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Prospects for Medium-Term Economic Damage by : Mr. Philip Barrett

Download or read book After-Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Prospects for Medium-Term Economic Damage written by Mr. Philip Barrett and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-07-30 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a severe global recession with differential impacts within and across countries. This paper examines the possible persistent effects (scarring) of the pandemic on the economy and the channels through which they may occur. History suggests that deep recessions often leave long-lived scars, particularly to productivity. Importantly, financial instabilities—typically associated with worse scarring—have been largely avoided in the current crisis so far. While medium-term output losses are anticipated to be lower than after the global financial crisis, they are still expected to be substantial. The degree of expected scarring varies across countries, depending on the structure of economies and the size of the policy response. Emerging market and developing economies are expected to suffer more scarring than advanced economies.

Technology: Toward Business Sustainability

Author : Bahaaeddin Alareeni
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3031540093
Total Pages : 554 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (315 download)

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Book Synopsis Technology: Toward Business Sustainability by : Bahaaeddin Alareeni

Download or read book Technology: Toward Business Sustainability written by Bahaaeddin Alareeni and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on with total page 554 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Cars in Europe: Supply Chains and Spillovers During COVID-19 Times

Author : Vizhdan Boranova
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1616356898
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (163 download)

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Book Synopsis Cars in Europe: Supply Chains and Spillovers During COVID-19 Times by : Vizhdan Boranova

Download or read book Cars in Europe: Supply Chains and Spillovers During COVID-19 Times written by Vizhdan Boranova and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-01-14 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cars in Europe: Supply Chains and Spillovers during COVID-19 Times

Modern Classification and Data Analysis

Author : Krzysztof Jajuga
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3031101901
Total Pages : 381 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (311 download)

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Book Synopsis Modern Classification and Data Analysis by : Krzysztof Jajuga

Download or read book Modern Classification and Data Analysis written by Krzysztof Jajuga and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-10-16 with total page 381 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents a selection of peer-reviewed papers that address the latest developments in the methodology and applications of data analysis and classification tools to micro- and macroeconomic problems. The contributions were originally presented at the 30th Conference of the Section on Classification and Data Analysis of the Polish Statistical Association, SKAD 2021, held online in Poznań, Poland, September 8–10, 2021. Providing a balance between methodological and empirical studies, and covering a wide range of topics, the book is divided into five parts focusing on methods and applications in finance, economics, social issues and to COVID-19 data. The book is aimed at a wide audience, including researchers at universities and research institutions, PhD students, as well as practitioners, data scientists and employees in public statistical institutions.

COVID-19 and SME Failures

Author : Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 54 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (119 download)

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Book Synopsis COVID-19 and SME Failures by : Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

Download or read book COVID-19 and SME Failures written by Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: We estimate the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on business failures among small and medium size enterprises (SMEs) in seventeen countries using a large representative firm-level database. We use a simple model of firm cost-minimization and measure each firm's liquidity shortfall during and after COVID-19. Our framework allows for a rich combination of sectoral and aggregate supply, productivity, and demand shocks. We estimate a large increase in the failure rate of SMEs under COVID-19 of nearly 9 percentage points, absent government support. Accommodation & Food Services, Arts, Entertainment & Recreation, Education, and Other Services are among the most affected sectors. The jobs at risk due to COVID-19 related SME business failures represent 3.1 percent of private sector employment. Despite the large impact on business failures and employment, we estimate only moderate effects on the financial sector: the share of Non Performing Loans on bank balance sheets would increase by up to 11 percentage points, representing 0.3 percent of banks' assets and resulting in a 0.75 percentage point decline in the common equity Tier-1 capital ratio. We evaluate the cost and effectiveness of various policy interventions. The fiscal cost of an intervention that narrowly targets at risk firms can be modest (0.54% of GDP). However, at a similar level of effectiveness, non-targeted subsidies can be substantially more expensive (1.82% of GDP). Our results have important implications for the severity of the COVID-19 recession, the design of policies, and the speed of the recovery

Slovak Republic: Selected Issues

Author : International Monetary
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513587323
Total Pages : 29 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Slovak Republic: Selected Issues by : International Monetary

Download or read book Slovak Republic: Selected Issues written by International Monetary and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-06-21 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Selected Issues

International Trade Spillovers from Domestic COVID-19 Lockdowns

Author : Mr. Shekhar Aiyar
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 48 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis International Trade Spillovers from Domestic COVID-19 Lockdowns by : Mr. Shekhar Aiyar

Download or read book International Trade Spillovers from Domestic COVID-19 Lockdowns written by Mr. Shekhar Aiyar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-06-17 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While standard demand factors perform well in predicting historical trade patterns, they fail conspicuously in 2020, when pandemic-specific factors played a key role above and beyond demand. Prediction errors from a multilateral import demand model in 2020 vary systematically with the health preparedness of trade partners, suggesting that pandemic-response policies have international spillovers. Bilateral product-level data covering about 95 percent of global goods trade reveals sizable negative international spillovers to trade from supply disruptions due to domestic lockdowns. These international spillovers accounted for up to 60 percent of the observed decline in trade in the early phase of the pandemic, but their effect was shortlived, concentrated among goods produced in key global value chains, and mitigated by the availability of remote working and the size of the fiscal response to the pandemic.

Policy Advice to Asia in the COVID-19 Era

Author : Changyong Rhee
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513566598
Total Pages : 105 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Policy Advice to Asia in the COVID-19 Era by : Changyong Rhee

Download or read book Policy Advice to Asia in the COVID-19 Era written by Changyong Rhee and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-03-05 with total page 105 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Asia-Pacific region was the first to be hit by the COVID-19 pandemic; it put a strain on its people and economies, and policymaking became exceptionally difficult. This departmental paper contains the assessment of the key challenges facing Asia at this critical juncture and policy advice to the region both to address the current challenges and to build the foundations for a more sustainable and inclusive future. The paper focuses on (1) adjusting to the COVID-19 shock, (2) using unconventional policies when policy space is limited, (3) dealing with debt, and (4) helping the vulnerable and greening the recovery. The paper first presents the different ways countries are adjusting to the COVID-19 shock.

Monitoring Demand and Supply in Asia: An Industry Level Approach

Author : Chris Redl
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 49 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Monitoring Demand and Supply in Asia: An Industry Level Approach by : Chris Redl

Download or read book Monitoring Demand and Supply in Asia: An Industry Level Approach written by Chris Redl and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-10-17 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a decomposition of GDP and its deflator into demand and supply driven components for 12 Asian countries, the US and Europe, following the forecast error-based methodology of Shapiro (2022). We extend that methodology by (1) considering a wide range of statistical forecasting models, using the optimal model for each country and (2) provide a measure idiosyncratic demand and supply movements. The latter provides, for example, a distinction between aggregate demand driven inflation and, inflation driven by large shocks in only a small number of sectors. We find that lockdowns in 2020 are explained by a mix of demand and supply shocks in Asia, but that idiosyncratic demand shocks played a significant role in some countries. Supply factors played an important role in the post-COVID recovery, primarily in 2021, with demand factors becoming more important in 2022. The mix of shocks during the sharp increase in inflation in 2021-22 differs by country, with large and advanced economies generally experiencing more supply shocks (China, Australia, Korea), while emerging markets saw significant demand pressures pushing up prices (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand). We illustrate the usefulness of the industry level shocks in two applications. Firstly, we consider whether industry supply shocks have created demand-like movements in aggregate prices and quantities, so-called Keynesian supply shocks. We find evidence for this mechanism in a minority of countries in our Asia sample, as well for Europe and the USA, but that these results are driven by the COVID-19 event. Secondly, we use the granularity of the industry shocks to construct country-level GDP shocks, driven by idiosyncratic movements at the industry level, to study cross country growth spillovers for the three large economic units in our sample: China, Europe and the US.

Tourism in the Post-Pandemic World

Author : Ms.Manuela Goretti
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513561901
Total Pages : 115 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Tourism in the Post-Pandemic World by : Ms.Manuela Goretti

Download or read book Tourism in the Post-Pandemic World written by Ms.Manuela Goretti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-02-19 with total page 115 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This departmental paper analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism in the Asia Pacific region, Latin America, and Caribbean countries. Many tourism dependent economies in these regions, including small states in the Pacific and the Caribbean, entered the pandemic with limited fiscal space, inadequate external buffers, and foreign exchange revenues extremely concentrated in tourism. The empirical analysis leverages on an augmented gravity model to draw lessons from past epidemics and finds that the impact of infectious diseases on tourism flows is much greater in developing countries than in advanced economies.

New Challenges for the Eurozone Governance

Author : José Caetano
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030623726
Total Pages : 321 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (36 download)

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Book Synopsis New Challenges for the Eurozone Governance by : José Caetano

Download or read book New Challenges for the Eurozone Governance written by José Caetano and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-02-22 with total page 321 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book adopts a comprehensive approach, combining the views of economists and political scientists, to assess the threats of maintaining the non-collaborative stance that prevailed in the response to past crises, and to explore new solutions to the present emergency. The coronavirus pandemic represents a serious test for the continued existence of the European Monetary Union. It has worsened pre-existing divisions among its members and highlighted the urgent need to address institutional and governance problems that were already apparent in the aftermath of the financial crisis and sovereign debt crisis, but have now gained in relevance following the more widespread impact of the disease across the European Union. This book discusses concrete strategies to overcome the current challenges, focusing on the need to build an effective economic and monetary union. It also reflects on ways of pursuing conformity with discipline and coordination rules while also adopting a more collaborative stance that has so far been absent in the Eurozone and has consistently undermined the political and social dimensions of the common currency project.

South Africa: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Financial System Stability Assessment

Author : International Monetary
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 64 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis South Africa: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Financial System Stability Assessment by : International Monetary

Download or read book South Africa: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Financial System Stability Assessment written by International Monetary and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-02-11 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The economy recovered strongly in 2021, following an unprecedented real output contraction in 2020. However, the outlook remains precarious amidst projected future low growth, high unemployment and adverse debt dynamics, and the recovery pace is unlikely to be sustained. Ample buffers allowed the financial system to handle the COVID-19 shock relatively well, but domestic and external downside risks remain substantial—with potential implications for asset quality, profitability, and solvency.

World Economic Outlook, October 2020

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN 13 : 9781513556055
Total Pages : 203 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (56 download)

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Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, October 2020 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Download or read book World Economic Outlook, October 2020 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2020-10-13 with total page 203 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy is climbing out from the depths to which it had plummeted during the Great Lockdown in April. But with the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to spread, many countries have slowed reopening and some are reinstating partial lockdowns to protect susceptible populations. While recovery in China has been faster than expected, the global economy’s long ascent back to pre-pandemic levels of activity remains prone to setbacks.

International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2021

Author : International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513568817
Total Pages : 74 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2021 by : International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department

Download or read book International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2021 written by International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-04 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A recovery is underway, but the economic fallout from the global pandemic could be with us for years to come. With the crisis exacerbating prepandemic vulnerabilities, country prospects are diverging. Nearly half of emerging market and developing economies and some middle-income countries are now at risk of falling further behind, undoing much of the progress made toward achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals.