Strategic Plan Financial Forecast 1998 9 2003 04

Author : Pao-Hwa Chan
Publisher : Ann Arbor, Mich. : University Microfilms International
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 264 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Download or read book The Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on U.S. Trade Competitiveness written by Pao-Hwa Chan and published by Ann Arbor, Mich. : University Microfilms International. This book was released on 1996 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study applies two different econometric methodologies to investigate the impact of exchange rate changes on the trade prices and quantities using the aggregated and industry level data of the United States, Canada, and Japan in order to compare the similarities and differences in countries as well as industries. The dynamic responses of these trade prices and quantities become very interesting and valuable for the further study of the effect of exchange rate changes, because the most important feature of this study is that the value of the U.S. dollar depreciates in terms of the Japanese yen but at the same time appreciates against the Canadian dollar. The actual impact of exchange rate changes is estimated by combining the main features of the markup specification and the effect of intermediate cost changes. In addition to the explicit recognition of the effects of markups and cost changes, the study includes the feedback effect of the partial adjustment mechanism in three-stage least squares to compare the findings of the vector autoregressions and to develop more reasonable implicit explanations. Moreover, the vector autoregressive technique particularly provides an adapted exploration of the dynamic inter-relationships among the exchange rate changes and trade prices as well as quantities to identify the role of exchange rate changes in output and price determination by analyzing variance decompositions and impulse responses. The results from these two different econometric methodologies present several similar meaningful findings. The findings suggest that the exporters and importers of the United States do not meet a very competitive situation with Canadian traders. By contrast, the findings indicate that the export and import industries of the United States encounter severer competition when they trade to and from Japan. In addition to measuring competitiveness, the results also illustrate that the responses of exchange rate changes between the short-run and the long-run are relatively small in the trade prices of the United States and Japan, suggesting that most price adjustments will be completed immediately, while the adjustments of import prices occur slower than has been expected between the United States and Canada. Furthermore, according to the impact elasticities of trade volume equations, the results suggest that a trade negotiation or a managed exchange rate policy might be an effective way to improve the trade deficits between the United States and Canada, while these policies might cause the trade deficits between the United States and Japan to deteriorate after dollar depreciation.