Read Books Online and Download eBooks, EPub, PDF, Mobi, Kindle, Text Full Free.
Stochastic Loss Reserving With Dependence
Download Stochastic Loss Reserving With Dependence full books in PDF, epub, and Kindle. Read online Stochastic Loss Reserving With Dependence ebook anywhere anytime directly on your device. Fast Download speed and no annoying ads. We cannot guarantee that every ebooks is available!
Book Synopsis Stochastic Loss Reserving with Dependence by : Benjamin Avanzi
Download or read book Stochastic Loss Reserving with Dependence written by Benjamin Avanzi and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stochastic loss reserving with dependence has received increased attention in the last decade. A number of parametric multivariate approaches have been developed to capture dependence between lines of business within an insurer's portfolio. Motivated by the richness of the Tweedie family of distributions, we propose a multivariate Tweedie approach to capture cell-wise dependence in loss reserving. This approach provides a transparent introduction of dependence through a common shock structure. In addition, it also has a number of ideal properties, including marginal flexibility, transparency, and tractability including moments that can be obtained in closed form. Theoretical results are illustrated using a simulated data set and a real data set from a property-casualty insurer in the US.
Book Synopsis Stochastic Loss Reserving Using Generalized Linear Models by : Greg Taylor
Download or read book Stochastic Loss Reserving Using Generalized Linear Models written by Greg Taylor and published by . This book was released on 2016-05-04 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this monograph, authors Greg Taylor and Gráinne McGuire discuss generalized linear models (GLM) for loss reserving, beginning with strong emphasis on the chain ladder. The chain ladder is formulated in a GLM context, as is the statistical distribution of the loss reserve. This structure is then used to test the need for departure from the chain ladder model and to consider natural extensions of the chain ladder model that lend themselves to the GLM framework.
Book Synopsis Multivariate Stochastic Loss Reserving with Common Shock Approaches by : Phuong Anh Vu
Download or read book Multivariate Stochastic Loss Reserving with Common Shock Approaches written by Phuong Anh Vu and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Outstanding claims liability is usually one of the largest liabilities on the balance sheet of a general insurer. Therefore, it is critical for insurers to accurately estimate their outstanding claims. Furthermore, a general insurer typically operates in multiple business lines whose risks are not perfectly dependent. This results in ``diversification benefits", the consideration of which is crucial due to their effects on the aggregate reserves and capital. It is then essential to consider the dependence across business lines in the estimation of outstanding claims. The goal of this thesis is to develop new approaches to assess outstanding claims for portfolios of dependent lines. We explore the common shock technique for model developments, a very popular dependence modelling technique with distinctive strengths, such as explicit dependence structure, ease of interpretation, and parsimonious construction of correlation matrices. We also aim to enhance the practicality of our approaches by incorporating realistic and desirable model features. Motivated by the richness of the Tweedie distribution family which covers Poisson distributions, gamma distributions and many more, we introduce a common shock Tweedie framework with dependence across business lines. Desirable properties of this framework are studied, including its marginal flexibility, tractable moments, and ability to handle masses at 0. To overcome the complex distributional structure of the Tweedie framework, we formulate a Bayesian approach for model estimation and perform a real data illustration. Remarks on practical features of the framework are drawn. Loss reserving data possesses an unbalanced nature, that is, claims from different positions within and between loss triangles can vary widely as more claims typically develop in early development periods. We account for this feature explicitly in common shock models with a parsimonious common shock adjustment. Theoretical and real data illustrations are performed using the multivariate Tweedie framework. Finally, in the last part of this thesis, we develop a dynamic framework with evolutionary factors to account for claims development patterns that change over time. Calendar year dependence is introduced using common shocks. We also formulate an estimation approach that is tailored to the structure of loss reserving data and perform a real data illustration.
Book Synopsis Stochastic Claims Reserving Methods in Insurance by : Mario V. Wüthrich
Download or read book Stochastic Claims Reserving Methods in Insurance written by Mario V. Wüthrich and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-04-30 with total page 438 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Claims reserving is central to the insurance industry. Insurance liabilities depend on a number of different risk factors which need to be predicted accurately. This prediction of risk factors and outstanding loss liabilities is the core for pricing insurance products, determining the profitability of an insurance company and for considering the financial strength (solvency) of the company. Following several high-profile company insolvencies, regulatory requirements have moved towards a risk-adjusted basis which has lead to the Solvency II developments. The key focus in the new regime is that financial companies need to analyze adverse developments in their portfolios. Reserving actuaries now have to not only estimate reserves for the outstanding loss liabilities but also to quantify possible shortfalls in these reserves that may lead to potential losses. Such an analysis requires stochastic modeling of loss liability cash flows and it can only be done within a stochastic framework. Therefore stochastic loss liability modeling and quantifying prediction uncertainties has become standard under the new legal framework for the financial industry. This book covers all the mathematical theory and practical guidance needed in order to adhere to these stochastic techniques. Starting with the basic mathematical methods, working right through to the latest developments relevant for practical applications; readers will find out how to estimate total claims reserves while at the same time predicting errors and uncertainty are quantified. Accompanying datasets demonstrate all the techniques, which are easily implemented in a spreadsheet. A practical and essential guide, this book is a must-read in the light of the new solvency requirements for the whole insurance industry.
Book Synopsis On Unbalanced Data and Common Shock Models in Stochastic Loss Reserving by : Benjamin Avanzi
Download or read book On Unbalanced Data and Common Shock Models in Stochastic Loss Reserving written by Benjamin Avanzi and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introducing common shocks is a popular dependence modelling approach, with some recent applications in loss reserving. The main advantage of this approach is the ability to capture structural dependence coming from known relationships. In addition, it helps with the parsimonious construction of correlation matrices of large dimensions. However, complications arise in the presence of "unbalanced data", that is, when (expected) magnitude of observations over a single triangle, or between triangles, can vary substantially. Specifically, if a single common shock is applied to all of these cells, it can contribute insignificantly to the larger values and/or swamp the smaller ones, unless careful adjustments are made. This problem is further complicated in applications involving negative claim amounts. In this paper, we address this problem in the loss reserving context and illustrate it using a common shock Tweedie model. We show that the solution not only provides a much better balance of the common shock proportions relative to the unbalanced data, but it is also parsimonious. Finally, the common shock Tweedie model also provides distributional tractability.
Book Synopsis Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance by : Marco Corazza
Download or read book Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance written by Marco Corazza and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-08-06 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The interaction between mathematicians and statisticians has been shown to be an effective approach for dealing with actuarial, insurance and financial problems, both from an academic perspective and from an operative one. The collection of original papers presented in this volume pursues precisely this purpose. It covers a wide variety of subjects in actuarial, insurance and finance fields, all treated in the light of the successful cooperation between the above two quantitative approaches. The papers published in this volume present theoretical and methodological contributions and their applications to real contexts. With respect to the theoretical and methodological contributions, some of the considered areas of investigation are: actuarial models; alternative testing approaches; behavioral finance; clustering techniques; coherent and non-coherent risk measures; credit scoring approaches; data envelopment analysis; dynamic stochastic programming; financial contagion models; financial ratios; intelligent financial trading systems; mixture normality approaches; Monte Carlo-based methods; multicriteria methods; nonlinear parameter estimation techniques; nonlinear threshold models; particle swarm optimization; performance measures; portfolio optimization; pricing methods for structured and non-structured derivatives; risk management; skewed distribution analysis; solvency analysis; stochastic actuarial valuation methods; variable selection models; time series analysis tools. As regards the applications, they are related to real problems associated, among the others, to: banks; collateralized fund obligations; credit portfolios; defined benefit pension plans; double-indexed pension annuities; efficient-market hypothesis; exchange markets; financial time series; firms; hedge funds; non-life insurance companies; returns distributions; socially responsible mutual funds; unit-linked contracts. This book is aimed at academics, Ph.D. students, practitioners, professionals and researchers. But it will also be of interest to readers with some quantitative background knowledge.
Book Synopsis On the Problematic of Reserving and Stochastic Loss Models by : Cristina Parlogea Bucurescu
Download or read book On the Problematic of Reserving and Stochastic Loss Models written by Cristina Parlogea Bucurescu and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Stochastic Loss Reserving with Emphasis on the Bornhuetter-Ferguson Method by : Annina Saluz
Download or read book Stochastic Loss Reserving with Emphasis on the Bornhuetter-Ferguson Method written by Annina Saluz and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Loss Reserving written by Greg Taylor and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper reviews the development of loss reserving models over the past, classifying them according to an elementary taxonomy. The taxonomic components include (1) the algebraic structure of the model, (2) the form of its parameter estimation, (3) whether or not it is explicitly stochastic, and (4) whether or not its parameters evolve over time. Particular attention is given to one of the higher species of model, involving complex structure, optimal estimation, and evolutionary parameters. A generalisation of the Kalman filter is considered as a basis of adaptive loss reserving in this case. Real life numerical examples are provided.Some implications of this type of data analysis for loss reserving are discussed, with particular reference to the form of data set used. The use of triangular arrays is questioned, and alternatives examined. Again, real life numerical examples are provided.
Book Synopsis Handbook on Loss Reserving by : Michael Radtke
Download or read book Handbook on Loss Reserving written by Michael Radtke and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-10-26 with total page 317 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook presents the basic aspects of actuarial loss reserving. Besides the traditional methods, it also includes a description of more recent ones and a discussion of certain problems occurring in actuarial practice, like inflation, scarce data, large claims, slow loss development, the use of market statistics, the need for simulation techniques and the task of calculating best estimates and ranges of future losses. In property and casualty insurance the provisions for payment obligations from losses that have occurred but have not yet been settled usually constitute the largest item on the liabilities side of an insurer's balance sheet. For this reason, the determination and evaluation of these loss reserves is of considerable economic importance for every property and casualty insurer. Actuarial students, academics as well as practicing actuaries will benefit from this overview of the most important actuarial methods of loss reserving by developing an understanding of the underlying stochastic models and how to practically solve some problems which may occur in actuarial practice.
Download or read book Claim Models written by Greg Taylor and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2020-04-15 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This collection of articles addresses the most modern forms of loss reserving methodology: granular models and machine learning models. New methodologies come with questions about their applicability. These questions are discussed in one article, which focuses on the relative merits of granular and machine learning models. Others illustrate applications with real-world data. The examples include neural networks, which, though well known in some disciplines, have previously been limited in the actuarial literature. This volume expands on that literature, with specific attention to their application to loss reserving. For example, one of the articles introduces the application of neural networks of the gated recurrent unit form to the actuarial literature, whereas another uses a penalized neural network. Neural networks are not the only form of machine learning, and two other papers outline applications of gradient boosting and regression trees respectively. Both articles construct loss reserves at the individual claim level so that these models resemble granular models. One of these articles provides a practical application of the model to claim watching, the action of monitoring claim development and anticipating major features. Such watching can be used as an early warning system or for other administrative purposes. Overall, this volume is an extremely useful addition to the libraries of those working at the loss reserving frontier.
Book Synopsis Risk, Ruin and Survival by : Ricardas Zitikis
Download or read book Risk, Ruin and Survival written by Ricardas Zitikis and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2020-04-02 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Developing techniques for assessing various risks and calculating probabilities of ruin and survival are exciting topics for mathematically-inclined academics. For practicing actuaries and financial engineers, the resulting insights have provided enormous opportunities but also created serious challenges to overcome, thus facilitating closer cooperation between industries and academic institutions. In this book, several renown researchers with extensive interdisciplinary research experiences share their thoughts that, in one way or another, contribute to the betterment of practice and theory of decision making under uncertainty. Behavioral, cultural, mathematical, and statistical aspects of risk assessment and modelling have been explored, and have been often illustrated using real and simulated data. Topics range from financial and insurance risks to security-type risks, from one-dimensional to multi- and even infinite-dimensional risks. The articles in the book were written with a broad audience in mind and should provide enjoyable reading for those with university level degrees and/or those who have studied for accreditation by various actuarial and financial societies.
Book Synopsis An Introduction to Stochastic Modeling by : Howard M. Taylor
Download or read book An Introduction to Stochastic Modeling written by Howard M. Taylor and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2014-05-10 with total page 410 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An Introduction to Stochastic Modeling provides information pertinent to the standard concepts and methods of stochastic modeling. This book presents the rich diversity of applications of stochastic processes in the sciences. Organized into nine chapters, this book begins with an overview of diverse types of stochastic models, which predicts a set of possible outcomes weighed by their likelihoods or probabilities. This text then provides exercises in the applications of simple stochastic analysis to appropriate problems. Other chapters consider the study of general functions of independent, identically distributed, nonnegative random variables representing the successive intervals between renewals. This book discusses as well the numerous examples of Markov branching processes that arise naturally in various scientific disciplines. The final chapter deals with queueing models, which aid the design process by predicting system performance. This book is a valuable resource for students of engineering and management science. Engineers will also find this book useful.
Book Synopsis Stochastic Loss Reserving Using Bayesian MCMC Models by : Glenn Meyers
Download or read book Stochastic Loss Reserving Using Bayesian MCMC Models written by Glenn Meyers and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The emergence of Bayesian Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) models has provided actuaries with an unprecedented flexibility in stochastic model development. Another recent development has been the posting of a database on the CAS website that consists of hundreds of loss development triangles with outcomes. This monograph begins by first testing the performance of the Mack model on incurred data, and the Bootstrap Overdispersed Poisson model on paid data. It then will identify features of some Bayesian MCMC models that improve the performance over the above models. The features examined include 1) recognizing correlation between accident years; (2) introducing a skewed distribution defined over the entire real line to deal with negative incremental paid data; (3) allowing for a payment year trend on paid data; and (4) allowing for a change in the claim settlement rate. While the specific conclusions of this monograph pertain only to the data in the CAS Loss Reserve Database, the breadth of this study suggests that the currently popular models might similarly understate the range of outcomes for other loss triangles. This monograph then suggests features of models that actuaries might consider implementing in their stochastic loss reserve models to improve their estimates of the expected range of outcomes"--front cover verso.
Book Synopsis Claims Reserving in General Insurance by : David Hindley
Download or read book Claims Reserving in General Insurance written by David Hindley and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-10-26 with total page 513 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a single comprehensive reference source covering the key material on this subject, and describing both theoretical and practical aspects.
Book Synopsis Actuarial Theory for Dependent Risks by : Michel Denuit
Download or read book Actuarial Theory for Dependent Risks written by Michel Denuit and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-05-01 with total page 458 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The increasing complexity of insurance and reinsurance products has seen a growing interest amongst actuaries in the modelling of dependent risks. For efficient risk management, actuaries need to be able to answer fundamental questions such as: Is the correlation structure dangerous? And, if yes, to what extent? Therefore tools to quantify, compare, and model the strength of dependence between different risks are vital. Combining coverage of stochastic order and risk measure theories with the basics of risk management and stochastic dependence, this book provides an essential guide to managing modern financial risk. * Describes how to model risks in incomplete markets, emphasising insurance risks. * Explains how to measure and compare the danger of risks, model their interactions, and measure the strength of their association. * Examines the type of dependence induced by GLM-based credibility models, the bounds on functions of dependent risks, and probabilistic distances between actuarial models. * Detailed presentation of risk measures, stochastic orderings, copula models, dependence concepts and dependence orderings. * Includes numerous exercises allowing a cementing of the concepts by all levels of readers. * Solutions to tasks as well as further examples and exercises can be found on a supporting website. An invaluable reference for both academics and practitioners alike, Actuarial Theory for Dependent Risks will appeal to all those eager to master the up-to-date modelling tools for dependent risks. The inclusion of exercises and practical examples makes the book suitable for advanced courses on risk management in incomplete markets. Traders looking for practical advice on insurance markets will also find much of interest.
Download or read book Stochastic Orders written by Moshe Shaked and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-04-03 with total page 482 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This reference text presents comprehensive coverage of the various notions of stochastic orderings, their closure properties, and their applications. Some of these orderings are routinely used in many applications in economics, finance, insurance, management science, operations research, statistics, and various other fields. And the value of the other notions of stochastic orderings needs further exploration. This book is an ideal reference for those interested in decision making under uncertainty and interested in the analysis of complex stochastic systems. It is suitable as a text for advanced graduate course on stochastic ordering and applications.
