Static And Dynamic Modelling Of Credit Default Risk

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Static and Dynamic Modelling of Credit Default Risk

Author : Louis-Étienne Salmon-Bélisle
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 111 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (96 download)

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Book Synopsis Static and Dynamic Modelling of Credit Default Risk by : Louis-Étienne Salmon-Bélisle

Download or read book Static and Dynamic Modelling of Credit Default Risk written by Louis-Étienne Salmon-Bélisle and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 111 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Credit risk modelling can take many different approaches. Each method has its strengths and weaknesses and studying a variety of them can help find new ways of performing credit risk analysis. We present here three different models, each classified either as static or dynamic, and structural or reduced-form. The static structural model from Lucas et al. (2000) helps us derive a moment behaviour theorem within the dynamic structural setting of Bush et al. (2011). For comparison, we also present the dynamic reduced-form model of Giesecke et al. (2012). A calibration exercise of the dynamic structural model is implemented and we study its performance through changing financial environment. This highlights the horse race between simplicity and efficiency of a model that still needs to be adequately addressed, as the results from the calibration show the difficulty of capturing the key financial environment's aspects.

A Bottom-Up Dynamic Model of Portfolio Credit Risk

Author : Tomasz R. Bielecki
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 20 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis A Bottom-Up Dynamic Model of Portfolio Credit Risk by : Tomasz R. Bielecki

Download or read book A Bottom-Up Dynamic Model of Portfolio Credit Risk written by Tomasz R. Bielecki and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we prove that the conditional dependence structure of default times in the Markov model of "A Bottom-Up Dynamic Model of Portfolio Credit Risk. Part I: Markov Copula Perspective" belongs to the class of Marshall-Olkin copulas. This allows us to derive a factor representation in terms of "common-shocks", the latter being able to trigger simultaneous defaults in some prespecified groups of obligors. This representation depends on the current default state of the credit portfolio so that fast convolution pricing schemes can be exploited for pricing and hedging credit portfolio derivatives. As emphasized in "A Bottom-Up Dynamic Model of Portfolio Credit Risk: Part I: Markov Copula Perspective," the innovative breakthrough of this dynamic bottom-up model is a suitable decoupling property between the dependence structure and the default marginals as in "Dynamic Modeling of Dependence in Finance via Copulae Between Stochastic Processes" (like in static copula models but here in a full-flesh dynamic "Markov copula" model). Given the fast deterministic pricing schemes of the present paper, the model can then be jointly calibrated to single-name and portfolio data in two steps, as opposed to a global joint optimization procedures involving all the model parameters at the same time which would be untractable numerically. We illustrate this numerically by results of calibration against market data from CDO tranches as well as individual CDS spreads. We also discuss hedging sensitivities computed in the models thus calibrated.

Introduction to Credit Risk Modeling

Author : Christian Bluhm
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1584889934
Total Pages : 386 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (848 download)

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Book Synopsis Introduction to Credit Risk Modeling by : Christian Bluhm

Download or read book Introduction to Credit Risk Modeling written by Christian Bluhm and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-04-19 with total page 386 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Contains Nearly 100 Pages of New MaterialThe recent financial crisis has shown that credit risk in particular and finance in general remain important fields for the application of mathematical concepts to real-life situations. While continuing to focus on common mathematical approaches to model credit portfolios, Introduction to Credit Risk Modelin

Credit Risk: Modeling, Valuation and Hedging

Author : Tomasz R. Bielecki
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3662048213
Total Pages : 517 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (62 download)

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Book Synopsis Credit Risk: Modeling, Valuation and Hedging by : Tomasz R. Bielecki

Download or read book Credit Risk: Modeling, Valuation and Hedging written by Tomasz R. Bielecki and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-14 with total page 517 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The motivation for the mathematical modeling studied in this text on developments in credit risk research is the bridging of the gap between mathematical theory of credit risk and the financial practice. Mathematical developments are covered thoroughly and give the structural and reduced-form approaches to credit risk modeling. Included is a detailed study of various arbitrage-free models of default term structures with several rating grades.

Credit Risk Modeling

Author : David Lando
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400829194
Total Pages : 328 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Credit Risk Modeling by : David Lando

Download or read book Credit Risk Modeling written by David Lando and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2009-12-13 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Credit risk is today one of the most intensely studied topics in quantitative finance. This book provides an introduction and overview for readers who seek an up-to-date reference to the central problems of the field and to the tools currently used to analyze them. The book is aimed at researchers and students in finance, at quantitative analysts in banks and other financial institutions, and at regulators interested in the modeling aspects of credit risk. David Lando considers the two broad approaches to credit risk analysis: that based on classical option pricing models on the one hand, and on a direct modeling of the default probability of issuers on the other. He offers insights that can be drawn from each approach and demonstrates that the distinction between the two approaches is not at all clear-cut. The book strikes a fruitful balance between quickly presenting the basic ideas of the models and offering enough detail so readers can derive and implement the models themselves. The discussion of the models and their limitations and five technical appendixes help readers expand and generalize the models themselves or to understand existing generalizations. The book emphasizes models for pricing as well as statistical techniques for estimating their parameters. Applications include rating-based modeling, modeling of dependent defaults, swap- and corporate-yield curve dynamics, credit default swaps, and collateralized debt obligations.

Credit Risk Modeling using Excel and VBA

Author : Gunter Löeffler
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470660929
Total Pages : 372 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (76 download)

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Book Synopsis Credit Risk Modeling using Excel and VBA by : Gunter Löeffler

Download or read book Credit Risk Modeling using Excel and VBA written by Gunter Löeffler and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-01-31 with total page 372 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is common to blame the inadequacy of credit risk models for the fact that the financial crisis has caught many market participants by surprise. On closer inspection, though, it often appears that market participants failed to understand or to use the models correctly. The recent events therefore do not invalidate traditional credit risk modeling as described in the first edition of the book. A second edition is timely, however, because the first dealt relatively briefly with instruments featuring prominently in the crisis (CDSs and CDOs). In addition to expanding the coverage of these instruments, the book will focus on modeling aspects which were of particular relevance in the financial crisis (e.g. estimation error) and demonstrate the usefulness of credit risk modelling through case studies. This book provides practitioners and students with an intuitive, hands-on introduction to modern credit risk modelling. Every chapter starts with an explanation of the methodology and then the authors take the reader step by step through the implementation of the methods in Excel and VBA. They focus specifically on risk management issues and cover default probability estimation (scoring, structural models, and transition matrices), correlation and portfolio analysis, validation, as well as credit default swaps and structured finance. The book has an accompanying website, https://creditriskmodeling.wordpress.com/, which has been specially updated for this Second Edition and contains slides and exercises for lecturers.

Practical Credit Risk and Capital Modeling, and Validation

Author : Colin Chen
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3031525426
Total Pages : 404 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (315 download)

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Book Synopsis Practical Credit Risk and Capital Modeling, and Validation by : Colin Chen

Download or read book Practical Credit Risk and Capital Modeling, and Validation written by Colin Chen and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on with total page 404 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Credit Risk

Author : Niklas Wagner
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1584889950
Total Pages : 600 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (848 download)

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Book Synopsis Credit Risk by : Niklas Wagner

Download or read book Credit Risk written by Niklas Wagner and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2008-05-28 with total page 600 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Featuring contributions from leading international academics and practitioners, Credit Risk: Models, Derivatives, and Management illustrates how a risk management system can be implemented through an understanding of portfolio credit risks, a set of suitable models, and the derivation of reliable empirical results. Divided into six sectio

Credit Models and the Crisis

Author : Damiano Brigo
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470971436
Total Pages : 212 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (79 download)

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Book Synopsis Credit Models and the Crisis by : Damiano Brigo

Download or read book Credit Models and the Crisis written by Damiano Brigo and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-10-28 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent financial crisis has highlighted the need for better valuation models and risk management procedures, better understanding of structured products, and has called into question the actions of many financial institutions. It has become commonplace to blame the inadequacy of credit risk models, claiming that the crisis was due to sophisticated and obscure products being traded, but practitioners have for a long time been aware of the dangers and limitations of credit models. It would seem that a lack of understanding of these models is the root cause of their failures but until now little analysis had been published on the subject and, when published, it had gained very limited attention. Credit Models and the Crisis is a succinct but technical analysis of the key aspects of the credit derivatives modeling problems, tracing the development (and flaws) of new quantitative methods for credit derivatives and CDOs up to and through the credit crisis. Responding to the immediate need for clarity in the market and academic research environments, this book follows the development of credit derivatives and CDOs at a technical level, analyzing the impact, strengths and weaknesses of methods ranging from the introduction of the Gaussian Copula model and the related implied correlations to the introduction of arbitrage-free dynamic loss models capable of calibrating all the tranches for all the maturities at the same time. It also illustrates the implied copula, a method that can consistently account for CDOs with different attachment and detachment points but not for different maturities, and explains why the Gaussian Copula model is still used in its base correlation formulation. The book reports both alarming pre-crisis research and market examples, as well as commentary through history, using data up to the end of 2009, making it an important addition to modern derivatives literature. With banks and regulators struggling to fully analyze at a technical level, many of the flaws in modern financial models, it will be indispensable for quantitative practitioners and academics who want to develop stable and functional models in the future.

Advances in Credit Risk Modeling and Management

Author : Frédéric Vrins
Publisher : MDPI
ISBN 13 : 3039287605
Total Pages : 190 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (392 download)

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Book Synopsis Advances in Credit Risk Modeling and Management by : Frédéric Vrins

Download or read book Advances in Credit Risk Modeling and Management written by Frédéric Vrins and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2020-07-01 with total page 190 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Credit risk remains one of the major risks faced by most financial and credit institutions. It is deeply connected to the real economy due to the systemic nature of some banks, but also because well-managed lending facilities are key for wealth creation and technological innovation. This book is a collection of innovative papers in the field of credit risk management. Besides the probability of default (PD), the major driver of credit risk is the loss given default (LGD). In spite of its central importance, LGD modeling remains largely unexplored in the academic literature. This book proposes three contributions in the field. Ye & Bellotti exploit a large private dataset featuring non-performing loans to design a beta mixture model. Their model can be used to improve recovery rate forecasts and, therefore, to enhance capital requirement mechanisms. François uses instead the price of defaultable instruments to infer the determinants of market-implied recovery rates and finds that macroeconomic and long-term issuer specific factors are the main determinants of market-implied LGDs. Cheng & Cirillo address the problem of modeling the dependency between PD and LGD using an original, urn-based statistical model. Fadina & Schmidt propose an improvement of intensity-based default models by accounting for ambiguity around both the intensity process and the recovery rate. Another topic deserving more attention is trade credit, which consists of the supplier providing credit facilities to his customers. Whereas this is likely to stimulate exchanges in general, it also magnifies credit risk. This is a difficult problem that remains largely unexplored. Kanapickiene & Spicas propose a simple but yet practical model to assess trade credit risk associated with SMEs and microenterprises operating in Lithuania. Another topical area in credit risk is counterparty risk and all other adjustments (such as liquidity and capital adjustments), known as XVA. Chataignier & Crépey propose a genetic algorithm to compress CVA and to obtain affordable incremental figures. Anagnostou & Kandhai introduce a hidden Markov model to simulate exchange rate scenarios for counterparty risk. Eventually, Boursicot et al. analyzes CoCo bonds, and find that they reduce the total cost of debt, which is positive for shareholders. In a nutshell, all the featured papers contribute to shedding light on various aspects of credit risk management that have, so far, largely remained unexplored.

Credit Scoring and Its Applications, Second Edition

Author : Lyn Thomas
Publisher : SIAM
ISBN 13 : 1611974550
Total Pages : 380 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (119 download)

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Book Synopsis Credit Scoring and Its Applications, Second Edition by : Lyn Thomas

Download or read book Credit Scoring and Its Applications, Second Edition written by Lyn Thomas and published by SIAM. This book was released on 2017-08-16 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Credit Scoring and Its Applications?is recognized as the bible of credit scoring. It contains a comprehensive review of the objectives, methods, and practical implementation of credit and behavioral scoring. The authors review principles of the statistical and operations research methods used in building scorecards, as well as the advantages and disadvantages of each approach. The book contains a description of practical problems encountered in building, using, and monitoring scorecards and examines some of the country-specific issues in bankruptcy, equal opportunities, and privacy legislation. It contains a discussion of economic theories of consumers' use of credit, and readers will gain an understanding of what lending institutions seek to achieve by using credit scoring and the changes in their objectives.? New to the second edition are lessons that can be learned for operations research model building from the global financial crisis, current applications of scoring, discussions on the Basel Accords and their requirements for scoring, new methods for scorecard building and new expanded sections on ways of measuring scorecard performance. And survival analysis for credit scoring. Other unique features include methods of monitoring scorecards and deciding when to update them, as well as different applications of scoring, including direct marketing, profit scoring, tax inspection, prisoner release, and payment of fines.?

Dynamic Model of Credit Risk in Relationship Lending

Author : Takashi Shibata
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis Dynamic Model of Credit Risk in Relationship Lending by : Takashi Shibata

Download or read book Dynamic Model of Credit Risk in Relationship Lending written by Takashi Shibata and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The publication develop a dynamic credit risk model for the case that banks compete to collect their loans from a firm falling in danger of bankruptcy. It applies a game-theoretic real options approach to investigate bank's optimal strategies. The model reveals that the bank with the larger loan amount, namely the main bank, provides an additional loan to support the deteriorating firm when the other bank collects its loan. This suggests that there exists rational forbearance lending by the main bank. Comparative statics show that as the liquidation value is lower, the optimal exit timing for the non-main bank comes at an earlier stage of business downturn and the optimal liquidation timing by the main bank is delayed further. As the interest rate of the loan is lower, the optimal exit timing for the non-main bank comes earlier. These analyses are consistent with the forbearance lending and exposure concentration of main banks observed in Japan.--Author's abstract.

Credit Risk

Author : Darrell Duffie
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400829178
Total Pages : 415 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Credit Risk by : Darrell Duffie

Download or read book Credit Risk written by Darrell Duffie and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-01-12 with total page 415 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book, two of America's leading economists provide the first integrated treatment of the conceptual, practical, and empirical foundations for credit risk pricing and risk measurement. Masterfully applying theory to practice, Darrell Duffie and Kenneth Singleton model credit risk for the purpose of measuring portfolio risk and pricing defaultable bonds, credit derivatives, and other securities exposed to credit risk. The methodological rigor, scope, and sophistication of their state-of-the-art account is unparalleled, and its singularly in-depth treatment of pricing and credit derivatives further illuminates a problem that has drawn much attention in an era when financial institutions the world over are revising their credit management strategies. Duffie and Singleton offer critical assessments of alternative approaches to credit-risk modeling, while highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of current practice. Their approach blends in-depth discussions of the conceptual foundations of modeling with extensive analyses of the empirical properties of such credit-related time series as default probabilities, recoveries, ratings transitions, and yield spreads. Both the "structura" and "reduced-form" approaches to pricing defaultable securities are presented, and their comparative fits to historical data are assessed. The authors also provide a comprehensive treatment of the pricing of credit derivatives, including credit swaps, collateralized debt obligations, credit guarantees, lines of credit, and spread options. Not least, they describe certain enhancements to current pricing and management practices that, they argue, will better position financial institutions for future changes in the financial markets. Credit Risk is an indispensable resource for risk managers, traders or regulators dealing with financial products with a significant credit risk component, as well as for academic researchers and students.

Modeling Credit Risk and Pricing Credit Derivatives

Author : Martin P. Wolf
Publisher : Universal-Publishers
ISBN 13 : 1581121458
Total Pages : 142 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (811 download)

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Book Synopsis Modeling Credit Risk and Pricing Credit Derivatives by : Martin P. Wolf

Download or read book Modeling Credit Risk and Pricing Credit Derivatives written by Martin P. Wolf and published by Universal-Publishers. This book was released on 2002-02-17 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The thesis starts with a short description of the credit derivatives' place in the credit risk management. Then it proceeds by outlining the basic forms of credit derivatives, their applications, and their contract elements. A short description of the two common pricing frameworks for credit derivatives, the Firm's Value Models and the Credit Rating Transition Models is given. The major approach reviewed in this thesis is the one of Duffie-Singleton for valuing credit derivatives with term structure models. This framework is also applied in a simulation and examines the importance of the different parameters on the outcome. Also examples for the valuation of Default Digital Swaps and Puts as well as Credit Default Swaps and Puts are given.

Data Science and Risk Analytics in Finance and Insurance

Author : Tze Leung Lai
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1351643258
Total Pages : 1098 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (516 download)

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Book Synopsis Data Science and Risk Analytics in Finance and Insurance by : Tze Leung Lai

Download or read book Data Science and Risk Analytics in Finance and Insurance written by Tze Leung Lai and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2024-10-02 with total page 1098 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents statistics and data science methods for risk analytics in quantitative finance and insurance. Part I covers the background, financial models, and data analytical methods for market risk, credit risk, and operational risk in financial instruments, as well as models of risk premium and insolvency in insurance contracts. Part II provides an overview of machine learning (including supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning), Monte Carlo simulation, and sequential analysis techniques for risk analytics. In Part III, the book offers a non-technical introduction to four key areas in financial technology: artificial intelligence, blockchain, cloud computing, and big data analytics. Key Features: Provides a comprehensive and in-depth overview of data science methods for financial and insurance risks. Unravels bandits, Markov decision processes, reinforcement learning, and their interconnections. Promotes sequential surveillance and predictive analytics for abrupt changes in risk factors. Introduces the ABCDs of FinTech: Artificial intelligence, blockchain, cloud computing, and big data analytics. Includes supplements and exercises to facilitate deeper comprehension.

Rating Based Modeling of Credit Risk

Author : Stefan Trueck
Publisher : Academic Press
ISBN 13 : 0080920306
Total Pages : 279 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (89 download)

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Book Synopsis Rating Based Modeling of Credit Risk by : Stefan Trueck

Download or read book Rating Based Modeling of Credit Risk written by Stefan Trueck and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2009-01-15 with total page 279 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the last decade rating-based models have become very popular in credit risk management. These systems use the rating of a company as the decisive variable to evaluate the default risk of a bond or loan. The popularity is due to the straightforwardness of the approach, and to the upcoming new capital accord (Basel II), which allows banks to base their capital requirements on internal as well as external rating systems. Because of this, sophisticated credit risk models are being developed or demanded by banks to assess the risk of their credit portfolio better by recognizing the different underlying sources of risk. As a consequence, not only default probabilities for certain rating categories but also the probabilities of moving from one rating state to another are important issues in such models for risk management and pricing. It is widely accepted that rating migrations and default probabilities show significant variations through time due to macroeconomics conditions or the business cycle. These changes in migration behavior may have a substantial impact on the value-at-risk (VAR) of a credit portfolio or the prices of credit derivatives such as collateralized debt obligations (D+CDOs). In Rating Based Modeling of Credit Risk the authors develop a much more sophisticated analysis of migration behavior. Their contribution of more sophisticated techniques to measure and forecast changes in migration behavior as well as determining adequate estimators for transition matrices is a major contribution to rating based credit modeling. Internal ratings-based systems are widely used in banks to calculate their value-at-risk (VAR) in order to determine their capital requirements for loan and bond portfolios under Basel II One aspect of these ratings systems is credit migrations, addressed in a systematic and comprehensive way for the first time in this book The book is based on in-depth work by Trueck and Rachev

Active Credit Portfolio Management

Author : Jochen Felsenheimer
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 3527501983
Total Pages : 581 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (275 download)

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Book Synopsis Active Credit Portfolio Management by : Jochen Felsenheimer

Download or read book Active Credit Portfolio Management written by Jochen Felsenheimer and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-03-10 with total page 581 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The introduction of the euro in 1999 marked the starting point of the development of a very liquid and heterogeneous EUR credit market, which exceeds EUR 350bn with respect to outstanding corporate bonds. As a result, credit risk trading and credit portfolio management gained significantly in importance. The book shows how to optimize, manage, and hedge liquid credit portfolios, i.e. applying innovative derivative instruments. Against the background of the highly complex structure of credit derivatives, the book points out how to implement portfolio optimization concepts using credit-relevant parameters, and basic Markowitz or more sophisticated modified approaches (e.g., Conditional Value at Risk, Omega optimization) to fulfill the special needs of an active credit portfolio management on a single-name and on a portfolio basis (taking default correlation within a credit risk model framework into account). This includes appropriate strategies to analyze the impact from credit-relevant newsflow (macro- and micro-fundamental news, rating actions, etc.). As credits resemble equity-linked instruments, we also highlight how to implement debt-equity strategies, which are based on a modified Merton approach. The book is obligatory for credit portfolio managers of funds and insurance companies, as well as bank-book managers, credit traders in investment banks, cross-asset players in hedge funds, and risk controllers.