Author : Dominick Bartelme
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 78 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)
Book Synopsis Specialization, Market Access and Real Income by : Dominick Bartelme
Download or read book Specialization, Market Access and Real Income written by Dominick Bartelme and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-03-08 with total page 78 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates the impact of external demand shocks on real income. We utilize a first order approximation to a wide class of small open economy models that feature sector-level gravity in trade flows, which allows us to measure foreign shocks and characterize their welfare impact in terms of reducedform elasticities. We use machine learning techniques to group 4-digit manufacturing sectors into a smaller number of clusters, and show that the cluster-level elasticities of income with respect to foreign shocks can be estimated using high-dimensional statistical techniques. Foreign demand shocks in complex intermediate and capital goods have large positive impacts on real income, whereas impacts in other sectors are negligible. We showthat the estimates imply that countries that specialize in these sectors enjoy greater gains from increased openness, and that (small) export subsidies to these sectors are welfare-improving. Finally, a calibrated multisector production and trade model with input-output linkages and external economies of scale can match the empirical estimates.