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Author : Giancarlo Corsetti
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.X/5 (4 download)
Download or read book Some Contagion, Some Interdependence written by Giancarlo Corsetti and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Kristin J. Forbes
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)
Download or read book No Contagion, Only Interdependence written by Kristin J. Forbes and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Heteroscedasticity biases tests for contagion based on correlation coefficients. When contagion is defined as a significant increase in market co-movement after a shock to one country, previous work suggests contagion occurred during recent crises. This paper shows that correlation coefficients are conditional on market volatility. Under certain assumptions, it is possible to adjust for this bias. Using this adjustment, there was virtually no increase in unconditional correlation coefficients (i.e., no contagion) during the 1997 Asian crisis, 1994 Mexican devaluation, and 1987 U.S. market crash. There is a high level of market co-movement in all periods, however, which we call interdependence.
Author : Matteo Ciccarelli
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)
Download or read book Measuring Contagion and Interdependence with a Bayesian Time-Varying Coefficient Model written by Matteo Ciccarelli and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We use a Bayesian time-varying coefficient model to measure contagion and interdependence, and we apply it to the Chilean FX market during the 2001 Argentine crisis. The proposed framework works in the joint presence of heteroskedasticity and omitted variables, without knowledge of the crisis timing prior to the empirical analysis. It can distinguish between contagion and interdependence, as well as between unusually strong or weak market comovements. In a natural experiment based on our application, we find that the proposed framework works well in practice. In the application, we find evidence of some contagion from Argentina and some interdependence with Brazil.
Author : Roberto Rigobón
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (962 download)
Download or read book Contagion, Spillover and Interdependence written by Roberto Rigobón and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Stefanie Kleimeier
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 27 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)
Download or read book Contagion Versus Interdependence written by Stefanie Kleimeier and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a framework based on correlation analysis to test for contagion during the episode of financial turmoil surrounding the Asian crisis. In particular, we calculate conditional and unconditional correlation coefficients for 15 countries. We advocate the use of synchronous instead of synchronized data to correctly measure stock market comovements. Considering the two different phases of the Asian crisis, reveals that synchronized data lead to an over-identification of contagion for the early Thailand crisis phase but an under-identification of contagion during the late Hong Kong crisis phase. When using synchronous data, we find little evidence of a significant change in the transmission mechanisms from Thailand to any of the other country in our sample as most financial shocks are thus transmitted through non-crisis-contingent channels. Contrary to the Thailand finding, we find evidence of contagion from the Hong Kong stock market to most of the other stock markets in our sample. This is in contrast with the findings of Forbes and Rigobon (2002) and suggests that most shocks are transmitted through crisis-contingent channels. Overall, our findings should caution researchers and practitioners alike when drawing conclusions based on synchronized data.
Author : Clifford A. Ball
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 27 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)
Download or read book Contagion in the Presence of Stochastic Interdependence written by Clifford A. Ball and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Contagion represents a significant change in cross-market linkages precipitated by a crisis and is properly measured only after taking into account the interdependence or extant linkages prevailing between markets. Since it is well known that stock return volatilities and correlations are stochastic in the absence of a crisis, interdependence between markets should reflect the time varying nature of these covariances. We measure contagion in the presence of stochastic interdependence using data on stock indices from South East Asian countries around the July 1997 crisis. Since stock return covariances are observed with error, this suggests casting our model in a state space framework which is estimated using a multivariate Kalman filter. In the presence of stochastic interdependence, we find reliable evidence of contagion between Thailand and Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines but not between Thailand and Hong Kong or Singapore.
Author : Lieven Baele
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 35 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)
Download or read book Time-Varying Integration, Interdependence and Contagion written by Lieven Baele and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bekaert, Harvey, and Ng (2005a) define contagion as quot;correlation over and above what one would expect from economic fundamentalsquot;. Based on a two-factor asset pricing specification to model fundamentally-driven linkages between markets, they define contagion as correlation among the model residuals, and develop a corresponding test procedure. In this paper, we investigate to what extent conclusions from this contagion test depend upon the specification of the time-varying factor exposures. We develop a two-factor model with global and regional market shocks as factors. We make the global and regional market exposures conditional upon both a latent regime variable and two structural instruments, and find that, for a set of 14 European countries, this model outperforms more restricted versions. The structurally-driven increase in global (regional) market exposures and correlations suggest that market integration has increased substantially over the last three decades. Using our optimal model, we do not find evidence that further integration has come at the cost of contagion. We do find evidence for contagion, however, when more restricted versions of the factor specifications are used. We conclude that the specification of the global and regional market exposures is an important issue in any test for contagion.
Author : Rob Quail
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118016521
Total Pages : 570 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (18 download)
Download or read book Financial Contagion written by Rob Quail and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-02-09 with total page 570 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Financial Contagion: The Viral Threat to the Wealth of Nations covers a lot of territory. It is, of course, terribly important to analyze case histories to discover potential triggers, mechanisms of transmission, and viable ways to contain the damage of financial contagion. The problem is, as these articles amply demonstrate, that there’s always a new virus or a mutation of a former one lurking in some corner of the financial world. We don’t know what it is or where it is. And, even if we had some inkling, there’s almost never enough time to develop a financial flu shot." --SeekingAlpha.com The latest insights on financial contagion and how both nations and investors can effectively deal with it. The domino-style structure in which the financial system exists is a perilous one. Although historically, the financial system has been able to deal with major shocks, the fact remains that our financial system is not as secure as it should be. Recent years have brought about too many examples of contagion and systemic risk. That is why Financial Contagion is such an important read. In it, the serious concerns that revolve around our fragile economic system are investigated, researched, and explained. Throughout the book, Kolb offers valuable insights on this dilemma as he compiles the history of financial contagion, highlights the latest research on systemic failure and interrelated markets, and analyzes the risks and consequences we face moving forward. Examines the importance of careful regulation and what must be done to stabilize the global financial system Includes contributed chapters from both academics and experienced professionals, offering a variety of perspectives and a rich interplay of ideas Details how close we are to witnessing a financial contagion that could devastate the world economy We have been harshly reminded of how fragile our economic ecosystem is. With Financial Contagion, you'll hold a better understanding of what needs to be done to strengthen our system and safeguard our financial future.
Author : Mardi Dungey
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780199842605
Total Pages : 228 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (426 download)
Download or read book Transmission of Financial Crises and Contagion: written by Mardi Dungey and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2011-01-07 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial crises often transmit across geographical borders and different asset classes. Modeling these interactions is empirically challenging, and many of the proposed methods give different results when applied to the same data sets. In this book the authors set out their work on a general framework for modeling the transmission of financial crises using latent factor models. They show how their framework encompasses a number of other empirical contagion models and why the results between the models differ. The book builds a framework which begins from considering contagion in the bond markets during 1997-1998 across a number of countries, and culminates in a model which encompasses multiple assets across multiple countries through over a decade of crisis events from East Asia in 1997-1998 to the sub prime crisis during 2008. Program code to support implementation of similar models is available.
Author : Kristin Forbes
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 54 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book No Contagion, Only Interdependence written by Kristin Forbes and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines stock market co-movements. It begins with a discussion of several conceptual issues involved in measuring these movements and how to test for contagion. Standard tests examine if cross-market correlation in stock market returns increase during a period of crisis. The measure of cross-market correlations central to this standard analysis, however, is biased. The unadjusted correlation coefficient is conditional on market movements over the time period under consideration, so that during a period of turmoil when stock market volatility increases, standard estimates of cross-market correlations will be biased upward. It is straightforward to adjust the correlation coefficient to correct for this bias. The remainder of the paper applies these concepts to test for stock market contagion during the 1997 East Asian crises, the 1994 Mexican peso collapse, and the 1987 U.S. stock market crash. In each of these cases, tests based on the unadjusted correlation coefficients find evidence of contagion in several countries, while tests based on the adjusted coefficients find virtually no contagion. This suggests that high market co-movements during these periods were a continuation of strong cross-market linkages. In other words, during these three crises there was no contagion, only interdependence.
Author : Cira Perna
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 8847023424
Total Pages : 402 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (47 download)
Download or read book Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance written by Cira Perna and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-03-08 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book develops the capabilities arising from the cooperation between mathematicians and statisticians working in insurance and finance fields. It gathers some of the papers presented at the conference MAF2010, held in Ravello (Amalfi coast), and successively, after a reviewing process, worked out to this aim.
Author : Lalith P. Samarakoon
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 27 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book Stock Market Interdependence, Contagion, and the U.S. Financial Crisis written by Lalith P. Samarakoon and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines transmission of shocks between the U.S. and foreign markets to delineate interdependence from contagion of the U.S. financial crisis by constructing shock models for partially-overlapping and non-overlapping markets. There exists important bi-directional, yet asymmetric, interdependence and contagion in emerging markets, with important regional variations. Interdependence is driven more by U.S. shocks, while contagion is driven more by emerging market shocks. Frontier markets also exhibit interdependence and contagion to U.S. shocks. Except for Latin America, there is no contagion from U.S. to emerging markets. But there is contagion from emerging markets to the U.S.
Author : Pedro L. Valls Pereira
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (11 download)
Download or read book Evaluation of Contagion Or Interdependence in the Financial Crises of Asia and Latin America, Considering the Macroeconomic Fundamentals written by Pedro L. Valls Pereira and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Marcela Eslava
Publisher : Brookings Institution Press
ISBN 13 : 0815737122
Total Pages : 202 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (157 download)
Download or read book Economía: Spring 2019 written by Marcela Eslava and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2019-05-28 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Stephane Goutte
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 981121025X
Total Pages : 355 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (112 download)
Download or read book Risk Factors And Contagion In Commodity Markets And Stocks Markets written by Stephane Goutte and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2020-04-28 with total page 355 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The link between commodities prices and the business cycle, including variables such as real GDP, industrial production, unemployment, inflation, and market uncertainty, has often been debated in the macroeconomic literature. To quantify the impact of commodities on the economy, one can distinguish different modeling approaches. First, commodities can be represented as the pinnacle of cross-sectional financial asset prices. Second, price fluctuations due to seasonal variations, dramatic market changes, political and regulatory decisions, or technological shocks may adversely impact producers who use commodities as input. This latter effect creates the so-called 'commodities risk'. Additionally, commodities price fluctuations may spread to other sectors in the economy, via contagion effects. Besides, stronger investor interest in commodities may create closer integration with conventional asset markets; as a result, the financialization process also enhances the correlation between commodity markets and financial markets.Our objective in this book, Risk Factors and Contagion in Commodity Markets and Stocks Markets, lies in answering the following research questions: What are the interactions between commodities and stock market sentiment? Do some of these markets move together overtime? Did the financialization in energy commodities occur after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis? These questions are essential to understand whether commodities are driven only by their fundamentals, or whether there is also a systemic component influenced by the volatility present within the stock markets.
Author : Stijn Claessens
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1475733143
Total Pages : 461 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (757 download)
Download or read book International Financial Contagion written by Stijn Claessens and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 461 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: No sooner had the Asian crisis broken out in 1997 than the witch-hunt started. With great indignation every Asian economy pointed fingers. They were innocent bystanders. The fundamental reason for the crisis was this or that - most prominently contagion - but also the decline in exports of the new commodities (high-tech goods), the steep rise of the dollar, speculators, etc. The prominent question, of course, is whether contagion could really have been the key factor and, if so, what are the channels and mechanisms through which it operated in such a powerful manner. The question is obvious because until 1997, Asia's economies were generally believed to be immensely successful, stable and well managed. This question is of great importance not only in understanding just what happened, but also in shaping policies. In a world of pure contagion, i.e. when innocent bystanders are caught up and trampled by events not of their making and when consequences go far beyond ordinary international shocks, countries will need to look for better protective policies in the future. In such a world, the international financial system will need to change in order to offer better preventive and reactive policy measures to help avoid, or at least contain, financial crises.
Author : Mr.Giorgio Fazio
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451850328
Total Pages : 22 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)
Download or read book Fatal Attraction written by Mr.Giorgio Fazio and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-04-01 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a new measure of contagion that is good at anticipating future vulnerabilities. Building on previous work, it uses correlations of equity markets across countries to measure contagion, but in a departure from previous practice it measures contagion using the relationship of these correlations with distance. Also in contrast to previous work, our test is good at identifying periods of "positive contagion," in which capital flows to emerging markets in a herd-like manner, largely unrelated to fundamentals. Identifying such periods of "fatal attraction" is important as they provide the essential ingredients for subsequent crises and rapid outflows of capital.
