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Author : Kenneth William Smith
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 274 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (89 download)
Download or read book Social Security in Periods of Demographic Uncertainty written by Kenneth William Smith and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Muhammad Rahman
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 48 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)
Download or read book Demographic Uncertainty and Welfare in a Life-Cycle Model Under Alternative Public Pension Systems written by Muhammad Rahman and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, I analyze consumption, aggregate savings, output and welfare implications of five different social security arrangements whenever there is demographic uncertainty. Following Bohn (2002), I analyze the effect of an uncertain population growth in an extended version of a modified Life-cycle model developed by Gertler (1999). Population growth dampens savings and output under all arrangements. Pay-as-you-go-Defined Benefit system appears to fare better than all other alternatives, falling short of the private annuity market with no pension system. But social security in general increases social welfare, with Fully Funded systems faring the best. Thus there appears to be a clear trade-off between growth and social welfare. The social security system also reduces the volatility of the economy.
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (246 download)
Download or read book Social Security and Demographic Uncertainty written by and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the U.S. population ages, the growing retiree-worker ratio increases the burden of public retirement systems. Is it efficient to maintain a defined benefit social security system? Should PAYGO benefits be reduced and private retirement savings be encouraged? The paper examines these questions in a neoclassical growth model with overlapping generations and demographic uncertainty. In case of shocks to the birth rate, I find that a defined-benefits social security system is more efficient ex-ante than a defined-contribution or privatized system. This is because small cohorts generally enjoy favorable wage and interest rate movements. They are in the labor force when the capital- labor ratio is high and they earn capital income when the capital-labor ratio is low. A defined benefit system helps to offset the effect of these factor price movements by imposing higher taxes on small cohorts. Neither defined-benefits nor its main alternative are fully efficient, however, because they all fail to adjust current retiree benefits in response to anticipated future demographic changes. In case of changes in life-expectancy, the efficient policy response depends on the predictability of deaths at the individual level and on the availability of annuities. Reduced benefits can be efficient if annuities markets are missing and the mortality change is such that accidental bequests decline, but not otherwise
Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309261961
Total Pages : 230 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (92 download)
Download or read book Aging and the Macroeconomy written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-01-10 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The United States is in the midst of a major demographic shift. In the coming decades, people aged 65 and over will make up an increasingly large percentage of the population: The ratio of people aged 65+ to people aged 20-64 will rise by 80%. This shift is happening for two reasons: people are living longer, and many couples are choosing to have fewer children and to have those children somewhat later in life. The resulting demographic shift will present the nation with economic challenges, both to absorb the costs and to leverage the benefits of an aging population. Aging and the Macroeconomy: Long-Term Implications of an Older Population presents the fundamental factors driving the aging of the U.S. population, as well as its societal implications and likely long-term macroeconomic effects in a global context. The report finds that, while population aging does not pose an insurmountable challenge to the nation, it is imperative that sensible policies are implemented soon to allow companies and households to respond. It offers four practical approaches for preparing resources to support the future consumption of households and for adapting to the new economic landscape.
Author : Christoph Borgmann
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9783540222682
Total Pages : 202 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (226 download)
Download or read book Social Security, Demographics, and Risk written by Christoph Borgmann and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2005 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume addresses the most important issues of the ongoing discussion on designing social security. It provides fundamental results for pay-as-you-go social security, covers the issues of social security during demographic transition and examines the inclusion of risk aspects into the analysis of social security. An empirical case study of Germany yields the surprising result that de facto the German public pension scheme already comprises an implicit demographic factor. This book allows a subtle understanding of how interacting risks are treated within different pension systems and thereby provides a basis for the development of innovative ways of risk sharing.
Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309069904
Total Pages : 369 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (9 download)
Download or read book Beyond Six Billion written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2000-10-11 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail. How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections. The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries. The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations.
Author : Jeffrey R. Brown
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226076504
Total Pages : 473 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (26 download)
Download or read book Social Security Policy in a Changing Environment written by Jeffrey R. Brown and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2009-12-15 with total page 473 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Social Security Policy in a Changing Environment analyzes the changing economic and demographic environment in which social insurance programs that benefit elderly households will operate. It also explores how these ongoing trends will affect future beneficiaries, under both the current social security program and potential reform options. In this volume, an esteemed group of economists probes the challenge posed to Social Security by an aging population. The researchers examine trends in private sector retirement saving and health care costs, as well as the uncertain nature of future demographic, economic, and social trends—including marriage and divorce rates and female participation in the labor force. Recognizing the ambiguity of the environment in which the Social Security system must operate and evolve, this landmark book explores factors that policymakers must consider in designing policies that are resilient enough to survive in an economically and demographically uncertain society.
Author : National Intelligence Council
Publisher : Cosimo Reports
ISBN 13 : 9781646794973
Total Pages : 158 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (949 download)
Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309050855
Total Pages : 424 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (9 download)
Download or read book Demography of Aging written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1994-02-01 with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the United States and the rest of the world face the unprecedented challenge of aging populations, this volume draws together for the first time state-of-the-art work from the emerging field of the demography of aging. The nine chapters, written by experts from a variety of disciplines, highlight data sources and research approaches, results, and proposed strategies on a topic with major policy implications for labor forces, economic well-being, health care, and the need for social and family supports.
Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 030931710X
Total Pages : 243 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (93 download)
Download or read book The Growing Gap in Life Expectancy by Income written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2015-09-17 with total page 243 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. population is aging. Social Security projections suggest that between 2013 and 2050, the population aged 65 and over will almost double, from 45 million to 86 million. One key driver of population aging is ongoing increases in life expectancy. Average U.S. life expectancy was 67 years for males and 73 years for females five decades ago; the averages are now 76 and 81, respectively. It has long been the case that better-educated, higher-income people enjoy longer life expectancies than less-educated, lower-income people. The causes include early life conditions, behavioral factors (such as nutrition, exercise, and smoking behaviors), stress, and access to health care services, all of which can vary across education and income. Our major entitlement programs - Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and Supplemental Security Income - have come to deliver disproportionately larger lifetime benefits to higher-income people because, on average, they are increasingly collecting those benefits over more years than others. This report studies the impact the growing gap in life expectancy has on the present value of lifetime benefits that people with higher or lower earnings will receive from major entitlement programs. The analysis presented in The Growing Gap in Life Expectancy by Income goes beyond an examination of the existing literature by providing the first comprehensive estimates of how lifetime benefits are affected by the changing distribution of life expectancy. The report also explores, from a lifetime benefit perspective, how the growing gap in longevity affects traditional policy analyses of reforms to the nation's leading entitlement programs. This in-depth analysis of the economic impacts of the longevity gap will inform debate and assist decision makers, economists, and researchers.
Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309056330
Total Pages : 64 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (9 download)
Download or read book Improving Data on America's Aging Population written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1996-12-20 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Committee on National Statistics and the Committee on Population, at the request of the NIA, convened a workshop in March 1996 to discuss data on the aging population that address the emerging and important social, economic, and health conditions of the older population. The purposes of the workshop were to identify how the population at older ages in the next few decades will differ from the older population today, to understand the underlying causes of those changes, to anticipate future problems and policy issues, and to suggest future needs for data for research in these areas. The scope of the workshop was broader than that of the 1988 CNSTAT report, including not only data on health and long-term care, but also actuarial, economic, demographic, housing, and epidemiological data needs for informing public policy.
Author : Juha M. Alho
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139470353
Total Pages : 239 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (394 download)
Download or read book Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability written by Juha M. Alho and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2008-03-13 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is widespread acceptance that much of the developed world faces a potential pensions and welfare crisis as a result of declining birth rates and an ageing population. However, there is considerable uncertainty about the specifics of demographic forecasting and this has significant implications for public finances. Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability addresses the economic consequences of uncertainty and, with particular reference to European economies, explores the impact of demographic risks on public finances, including pension systems, health care and old-age care expenditures. Covering a spectrum of theoretical and empirical approaches, different types of computational models are used to demonstrate not only the magnitudes of the uncertainties involved but also how these can be addressed through policy initiatives. The book is divided into four parts covering demographic, measurement, policy and methodological issues. Each part is followed by a discussion essay that draws out key elements and identifies common themes.
Author : Charles Goodhart
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030426572
Total Pages : 260 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (34 download)
Download or read book The Great Demographic Reversal written by Charles Goodhart and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-08-08 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This original and panoramic book proposes that the underlying forces of demography and globalisation will shortly reverse three multi-decade global trends – it will raise inflation and interest rates, but lead to a pullback in inequality. “Whatever the future holds”, the authors argue, “it will be nothing like the past”. Deflationary headwinds over the last three decades have been primarily due to an enormous surge in the world’s available labour supply, owing to very favourable demographic trends and the entry of China and Eastern Europe into the world’s trading system. This book demonstrates how these demographic trends are on the point of reversing sharply, coinciding with a retreat from globalisation. The result? Ageing can be expected to raise inflation and interest rates, bringing a slew of problems for an over-indebted world economy, but is also anticipated to increase the share of labour, so that inequality falls. Covering many social and political factors, as well as those that are more purely macroeconomic, the authors address topics including ageing, dementia, inequality, populism, retirement and debt finance, among others. This book will be of interest and understandable to anyone with an interest on where the world’s economy may be going.
Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309038812
Total Pages : 340 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (9 download)
Download or read book The Aging Population in the Twenty-First Century written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1988-02-01 with total page 340 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is not news that each of us grows old. What is relatively new, however, is that the average age of the American population is increasing. More and better information is required to assess, plan for, and meet the needs of a graying population. The Aging Population in the Twenty-First Century examines social, economic, and demographic changes among the aged, as well as many health-related topics: health promotion and disease prevention; quality of life; health care system financing and use; and the quality of careâ€"especially long-term care. Recommendations for increasing and improving the data availableâ€"as well as for ensuring timely access to themâ€"are also included.
Author : Henry J. Aaron
Publisher : Washington, D.C. : Brookings Institution
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 104 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (97 download)
Download or read book Economic Effects of Social Security written by Henry J. Aaron and published by Washington, D.C. : Brookings Institution. This book was released on 1982 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research report evaluating economic implications of social security in the USA - discusses three competing economic theories on people's economic decision making, namely the life-cycle, multigeneration and short-horizon models, outlines historical trends and the impact of social security on saving, labour supply and long term income distribution. Graphs and references.
Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309474108
Total Pages : 409 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (94 download)
Download or read book Future Directions for the Demography of Aging written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2018-07-21 with total page 409 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Almost 25 years have passed since the Demography of Aging (1994) was published by the National Research Council. Future Directions for the Demography of Aging is, in many ways, the successor to that original volume. The Division of Behavioral and Social Research at the National Institute on Aging (NIA) asked the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to produce an authoritative guide to new directions in demography of aging. The papers published in this report were originally presented and discussed at a public workshop held in Washington, D.C., August 17-18, 2017. The workshop discussion made evident that major new advances had been made in the last two decades, but also that new trends and research directions have emerged that call for innovative conceptual, design, and measurement approaches. The report reviews these recent trends and also discusses future directions for research on a range of topics that are central to current research in the demography of aging. Looking back over the past two decades of demography of aging research shows remarkable advances in our understanding of the health and well-being of the older population. Equally exciting is that this report sets the stage for the next two decades of innovative researchâ€"a period of rapid growth in the older American population.
Author : Peter Taylor-Gooby
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319757830
Total Pages : 317 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (197 download)
Download or read book Attitudes, Aspirations and Welfare written by Peter Taylor-Gooby and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-06-27 with total page 317 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This edited collection uses democratic forums to study what people want from the welfare state in five European countries. The forum method yields new insights into how people frame social issues, their priorities and acceptable solutions. This is the first time democratic forums have been used as a research tool in this field. The contributors’ research show that most people recognize growing inequality, population ageing, paying for health care and pensions, social care and immigration as areas where the welfare state faces real challenges. The most striking findings are the high level of support across all countries for social investment, and the way justifications for this vary between welfare state regimes. The authors also explore key areas such as immigration and intergenerational differences. Attitudes, Aspirations and Welfare will be of interest to students and scholars across a range of disciplines including politics, social policy and sociology, as well as policy-makers.
