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Should We Be Surprised By The Unreliability Of Real Time Output Gap Estimates Density Estimates For The Eurozone
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Book Synopsis Should We be Surprised by the Unreliability of Real-time Output Gap Estimates? Density Estimates for the Eurozone by : James Mitchell
Download or read book Should We be Surprised by the Unreliability of Real-time Output Gap Estimates? Density Estimates for the Eurozone written by James Mitchell and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Reliability of Real Time Estimates of the Euro Area Output Gap by :
Download or read book The Reliability of Real Time Estimates of the Euro Area Output Gap written by and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides evidence on the reliability of euro area real-time output gap estimates, including those provided by the IMF, OECD and EC and a set of model based measures. A genuine real-time data set is used, including vintages of several sets of euro area output gap estimates available from 1999 to 2006. It turns out that real-time estimates of the output gap are characterised by a high degree of uncertainty, much higher than that resulting from model and estimation uncertainty only. In particular, the evidence indicates that both the magnitude and the sign of the real-time estimates of the euro area output gap are very uncertain. The uncertainty is mostly due to parameter instability, while data revisions seem to play a minor role. To benchmark our results, we repeat the analysis for the US over the same sample. It turns out that US real time estimates are much more correlated with final estimates than for the euro area, data revisions play a larger role, but overall the unreliability in real time of the US output gap measures detected in earlier studies is confirmed in the more recent period.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Policy Making in the European Union by : Martin Larch
Download or read book Fiscal Policy Making in the European Union written by Martin Larch and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 219 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ""Fiscal policy making in the European Union is a national prerogative that is carried out and co-ordinated within the remits of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). The SGP Member States have agreed upon a rules-based framework which, abstracting from operational details, aims to ensure long-term sustainability of public finances while allowing for short-term fiscal stabilization. The success of the EU fiscal framework depends to a large extent on the effectiveness and accuracy of the tool-kit of indicators and methods used at the EU level to monitor and assess the fiscal performance of the Member States vis-a-vis the requirements of the SGP. The contributions to this volume examine key aspects of the measurement of fiscal policy making in the context of the EU fiscal surveillance framework. They highlight strengths and weaknesses of current assessment practice, including innovations implied by the 2005 revision of the SGP." "--Jacket.
Book Synopsis Behavioural Macroeconomics by : Paul De Grauwe
Download or read book Behavioural Macroeconomics written by Paul De Grauwe and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2019-10-25 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modern macroeconomics has been based on the paradigm of the rational individual capable of understanding the complexity of the world. This has created a very shallow theory of the business cycle in which nothing happens in the macroeconomy unless shocks occur from outside. Behavioural Macroeconomics: Theory and Policy uses a different paradigm. It assumes that individual agents experience cognitive limitations preventing them from having rational expectations. Instead these individuals use simple rules of behaviour. Behavioural Macroeconomics introduces rationality by allowing individuals to learn from their mistakes and to switch to the rules that perform better. It introduces the idea of endogenously generated "animals spirits" that drive the business cycle and are in turn influenced by it, and applies this model to shed new light on a number of important issues. It analyses the role of fiscal policy in stabilizing the economy while maintaining debt sustainability; expands the model to include a banking sector and show how banks amplify the booms and busts; and explains how animal spirits help to synchronize the business cycles across countries. The model set out in Behavioural Macroeconomics leads to very different policy implications from the mainstream macroeconomic model. It shows how policymakers have a responsibility to stabilize an otherwise unstable system.
Book Synopsis Real time estimates of the euro area output gap : reliability and forecasting performance by : Massimiliano Marcellino
Download or read book Real time estimates of the euro area output gap : reliability and forecasting performance written by Massimiliano Marcellino and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Testing the EU Fiscal Surveillance by : Sven Langedijk
Download or read book Testing the EU Fiscal Surveillance written by Sven Langedijk and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Output Gap Uncertainty and Real-Time Monetary Policy by : Francesco Grigoli
Download or read book Output Gap Uncertainty and Real-Time Monetary Policy written by Francesco Grigoli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-01-23 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Output gap estimates are subject to a wide range of uncertainty owing to data revisions and the difficulty in distinguishing between cycle and trend in real time. This is important given the central role in monetary policy of assessments of economic activity relative to capacity. We show that country desks tend to overestimate economic slack, especially during recessions, and that uncertainty in initial output gap estimates persists several years. Only a small share of output gap revisions is predictable ex ante based on characteristics like output dynamics, data quality, and policy frameworks. We also show that for a group of Latin American inflation targeters the prescriptions from typical monetary policy rules are subject to large changes due to output gap revisions. These revisions explain a sizable proportion of the deviation of inflation from target, suggesting this information is not accounted for in real-time policy decisions.
Download or read book Opportunity for All written by and published by The Stationery Office. This book was released on 2004 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Estimation and Use of the Potential GDP for Monetary Policy for the SEACEN Countries by : Vincent Lim
Download or read book Estimation and Use of the Potential GDP for Monetary Policy for the SEACEN Countries written by Vincent Lim and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The forecasting performance of real time estimates of the euro area output gap by : Massimiliano Marcellino
Download or read book The forecasting performance of real time estimates of the euro area output gap written by Massimiliano Marcellino and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Reality of Real Time Estimates of the Euro Area Output Gap by : Massimiliano Marcellino
Download or read book The Reality of Real Time Estimates of the Euro Area Output Gap written by Massimiliano Marcellino and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis An Exploration of Real-time Revisions of Output Gap Estimates Across European Countries by : Pablo Hernández de Cos
Download or read book An Exploration of Real-time Revisions of Output Gap Estimates Across European Countries written by Pablo Hernández de Cos and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time? by : Mr.Jiaqian Chen
Download or read book Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time? written by Mr.Jiaqian Chen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-07 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than the usual filtering techniques. It also produces smaller out-of-sample forecast errors for inflation. At the same time, however, our results suggest caution in basing policy decisions on output gap estimates.
Book Synopsis The Information Content of Real-time Output Gap Estimates by : Gerhard Rünstler
Download or read book The Information Content of Real-time Output Gap Estimates written by Gerhard Rünstler and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis An Assessment of the Relative Quality of the Output Gap Estimates Produced by the EU's Production Function Methodology by :
Download or read book An Assessment of the Relative Quality of the Output Gap Estimates Produced by the EU's Production Function Methodology written by and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 98 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time by : Athanasios Orphanides
Download or read book The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time written by Athanasios Orphanides and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "A stable predictive relationship between inflation and the output gap, often referred to as a Phillips curve, provides the basis for countercyclical monetary policy in many models. In this paper, we evaluate the usefulness of alternative univariate and multivariate estimates of the output gap for predicting inflation. Many of the ex post output gap measures we examine appear to be quite useful for predicting inflation. However, forecasts using real-time estimates of the same measures do not perform nearly as well. The relative usefulness of real-time output gap estimates diminishes further when compared to simple bivariate forecasting models which use past inflation and output growth. Forecast performance also appears to be unstable over time, with models often performing differently over periods of high and low inflation. These results call into question the practical usefulness of the output gap concept for forecasting inflation"--Abstract.
Book Synopsis Trend-cycle decomposition of output and Euro area inflation forecasts : a real-time approach based on model combination by : Pierre Guérin
Download or read book Trend-cycle decomposition of output and Euro area inflation forecasts : a real-time approach based on model combination written by Pierre Guérin and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
