Read Books Online and Download eBooks, EPub, PDF, Mobi, Kindle, Text Full Free.
Should One Rely On Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts
Download Should One Rely On Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts full books in PDF, epub, and Kindle. Read online Should One Rely On Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts ebook anywhere anytime directly on your device. Fast Download speed and no annoying ads. We cannot guarantee that every ebooks is available!
Book Synopsis Should One Rely on Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts? An Empirical Analysis of Professional Forecasts for the Eur/Us-$ Rate by : Peter Bofinger
Download or read book Should One Rely on Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts? An Empirical Analysis of Professional Forecasts for the Eur/Us-$ Rate written by Peter Bofinger and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study analyses the characteristics of professional exchange rate forecasts for the E/US-$ rate. The results indicate that the quality of forecasts produced by professional economists is rather poor and incompatible with the rational expectations hypothesis. This dismal result is according to our analysis attributed to the fact that professional forecasts are to a large extend influenced by actual changes in exchange rates. A reasonable explanation for this behaviour can be derived from the behavioural finance literature. According to the anchoring heuristic decision processes are often dominated by available pieces of information even if they are obviously of no relevance.
Book Synopsis Should One Rely on Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts? by : Peter Bofinger
Download or read book Should One Rely on Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts? written by Peter Bofinger and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis On the Reliability of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts by : Robert Schmidt
Download or read book On the Reliability of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts written by Robert Schmidt and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study analyses the characteristics of professional exchange rate forecasts for the Ĩ/US-$ rate. The results indicate that the quality of forecasts produced by professional economists is rather poor and incompatible with the rational expectations hypothesis. This dismal result is according to our analysis attributed to the fact that professional forecasts are to a large extend influenced by actual changes in exchange rates. A reasonable explanation for this behaviour can be derived from the behavioural finance literature. According to the anchoring heuristic decision processes are often dominated by available pieces of information even if they are obviously of no relevance.
Book Synopsis U.S. Dollar Dynamics by : Mr.Ravi Balakrishnan
Download or read book U.S. Dollar Dynamics written by Mr.Ravi Balakrishnan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-08 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate the drivers of dynamics of major U.S. FX bilaterals. We first construct a novel measure of FX risk premiums using Consensus exchange rate forecasts. We then use VAR analysis to show that (i) risk premium shocks play a key role in driving dynamics of the major U.S. FX bilaterals; (ii) longer-term interest differentials also matter, especially for the Canadian $ and the Euro; (iii) oil price shocks play a particularly important role for the Canadian $ (an oil exporter); and (iv) risk appetite shocks (e.g., VIX shocks) generally lead to U.S. dollar appreciation. The importance of risk premium and longer-term interest differential shocks fit well with a simple theoretical model and are supported by recent event studies.
Book Synopsis Foreign Exchange Rates by : Arif Orçun Söylemez
Download or read book Foreign Exchange Rates written by Arif Orçun Söylemez and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2021-02-07 with total page 83 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Predicting foreign exchange rates has presented a long-standing challenge for economists. However, the recent advances in computational techniques, statistical methods, newer datasets on emerging market currencies, etc., offer some hope. While we are still unable to beat a driftless random walk model, there has been serious progress in the field. This book provides an in-depth assessment of the use of novel statistical approaches and machine learning tools in predicting foreign exchange rate movement. First, it offers a historical account of how exchange rate regimes have evolved over time, which is critical to understanding turning points in a historical time series. It then presents an overview of the previous attempts at modeling exchange rates, and how different methods fared during this process. At the core sections of the book, the author examines the time series characteristics of exchange rates and how contemporary statistics and machine learning can be useful in improving predictive power, compared to previous methods used. Exchange rate determination is an active research area, and this book will appeal to graduate-level students of international economics, international finance, open economy macroeconomics, and management. The book is written in a clear, engaging, and straightforward way, and will greatly improve access to this much-needed knowledge in the field.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1990-04-01 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper seeks to advance the discussion of monetary policy strategies in several ways. One involves a comparison of targets for nominal GNP and the price level, with emphasis on specificational robustness and implications for output variability. A second pertains to various “indicator” variables recently suggested by Federal Reserve officials. In this regard, a careful review of the relevant conceptual distinctions--concerning instruments, targets, indicators, etc.--is required. Finally, the proposal that strategy should be conducted so as to place minimal reliance on quantity variables is given attention, in the context of evidence concerning the merits of an interest rate instrument.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Determination by : Michael Rosenberg
Download or read book Exchange Rate Determination written by Michael Rosenberg and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2003-05-19 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Models and Strategies for Exchange Rate ForecastingMichael R. RosenbergGetting an accurate exchange rate is critical for any company doing business in today's global economy. Exchange Rate Determination--written by the number one-ranked foreign exchange team in the world--examines the methods used to accurately and profitably forecast foreign exchange rates. This hands-on guidebook uses extensive charts and tables to examine currency option markets, productivity trends and exchange rates; technical analysis methods to improve currency forecasting accuracy; and more.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Forecasting: Techniques and Applications by : I. Moosa
Download or read book Exchange Rate Forecasting: Techniques and Applications written by I. Moosa and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-02-05 with total page 420 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting exchange rates is a variable that preoccupies economists, businesses and governments, being more critical to more people than any other variable. In Exchange Rate Forecasting the author sets out to provide a concise survey of the techniques of forecasting - bringing together the various forecasting methods and applying them to the exchange rate in a highly accessible and readable manner. Highly practical in approach, the book provides an understanding of the techniques of forecasting with an emphasis on its applications and use in business decision-making, such as hedging, speculation, investment, financing and capital budgeting. In addition, the author also considers recent developments in the field, notably neural networks and chaos, again, with easy-to-understand explanations of these "rocket science" areas. The practical approach to forecasting is also reflected in the number of examples that pepper the text, whilst descriptions of some of the software packages that are used in practice to generate forecasts are also provided.
Book Synopsis Bias of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts by : Peter Bofinger
Download or read book Bias of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts written by Peter Bofinger and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis A Systematic Comparison of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts with Judgmental Forecasts of Novices - are There Substantial Differences? by : Johannes Leitner
Download or read book A Systematic Comparison of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts with Judgmental Forecasts of Novices - are There Substantial Differences? written by Johannes Leitner and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study at hand deals with the expectations of professional analysts and novices in the context of foreign exchange markets. We analyze the respective forecasting accuracy and our results indicate that there exist substantial differences between professional forecasts and judgmental forecasts of novices. In search of reasonable explanations for the astonishing result, we evaluate the nature of professional and experimental expectations in more detail and find that while professional exchange rate forecasts seem to be biased predictors for the future exchange rates, judgmental forecasts appear to be unbiased. Furthermore, professional forecasters consistently expect a reversal of forgoing exchange rate changes whereas novices expect a continuation of current movements in the short-run and are reversed in the long-run.
Book Synopsis Professional vs Amateur Judgment Accuracy by : J. Frank Yates
Download or read book Professional vs Amateur Judgment Accuracy written by J. Frank Yates and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Highly knowledgeable people often fail to achieve highly accurate judgments, a phenomenon sometimes called the ''processperformance paradox.'' The present research tested for this paradox in foreign exchange (FX) rate forecasting. Forty professional and 57 sophisticated amateur forecasters made one-day and one-week-ahead FX predictions in deterministic and probabilistic formats. Among the conclusions indicated by the results are: (a) professional accuracy usually surpasses amateur accuracy, although many amateurs outperform many professionals; (b) professionals appear to achieve high proficiency via heavy reliance on predictive information (unlike what has been observed before, e.g., for stock prices); (c) forecast format strongly affects judgment accuracy and processes; and (d) apparent overconfidence can transform itself into underconfidence depending on when and how forecasters must articulate their confidence.
Book Synopsis Currency Forecasting by : Michael Roy Rosenberg
Download or read book Currency Forecasting written by Michael Roy Rosenberg and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This text explains the methods and aspects of exchange rate forecasting, including purchasing power, parity, interest rate differentials and technical analysis. Guidelines for reducing risk with forecasting strategies are included, as are techniques for co
Book Synopsis The Impact of Uncertainty on Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts by : Joscha Beckmann
Download or read book The Impact of Uncertainty on Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts written by Joscha Beckmann and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis U.S. Dollar Risk Premiums and Capital Flows by : Ravi Balakrishnan
Download or read book U.S. Dollar Risk Premiums and Capital Flows written by Ravi Balakrishnan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-06 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper sheds light on the attractiveness of U.S. assets by studying dollar risk premiums, calculated using Consensus exchange rate forecasts, and linking them to bilateral capital flows. The paper finds that the presence of negative dollar risk premiums (i.e. expectations of a dollar depreciation net of interest rate effects) amid record capital inflows could suggest that investors may favor U.S. assets for structural reasons. One possible explanation could be that the Asian crisis created a large pool of savings searching for relatively riskless investment opportunities, which were provided by deep, liquid, and innovative U.S. financial markets with robust investor protection. Moreover, the continued attractiveness of U.S. financial markets to European investors suggests that they offer a large array of assets, with different risk/return characteristics, that facilitate the structuring of diversified investment portfolios. Looking forward, this suggests that the allocative efficiency of U.S. financial markets could mitigate risks of a disorderly unwinding of global current account imbalances.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Economics by : Ronald MacDonald
Download or read book Exchange Rate Economics written by Ronald MacDonald and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2005 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ''In summary, the book is valuable as a textbook both at the advanced undergraduate level and at the graduate level. It is also very useful for the economist who wants to be brought up-to-date on theoretical and empirical research on exchange rate behaviour.'' ""Journal of International Economics""
Book Synopsis Biases of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts by : Peter Bofinger
Download or read book Biases of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts written by Peter Bofinger and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Demand Forecasting for Executives and Professionals by : Stephan Kolassa
Download or read book Demand Forecasting for Executives and Professionals written by Stephan Kolassa and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2023-09-29 with total page 269 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book surveys what executives who make decisions based on forecasts and professionals responsible for forecasts should know about forecasting. It discusses how individuals and firms should think about forecasting and guidelines for good practices. It introduces readers to the subject of time series, presents basic and advanced forecasting models, from exponential smoothing across ARIMA to modern Machine Learning methods, and examines human judgment's role in interpreting numbers and identifying forecasting errors and how it should be integrated into organizations. This is a great book to start learning about forecasting if you are new to the area or have some preliminary exposure to forecasting. Whether you are a practitioner, either in a role managing a forecasting team or at operationally involved in demand planning, a software designer, a student or an academic teaching business analytics, operational research, or operations management courses, the book can inspire you to rethink demand forecasting. No prior knowledge of higher mathematics, statistics, operations research, or forecasting is assumed in this book. It is designed to serve as a first introduction to the non-expert who needs to be familiar with the broad outlines of forecasting without specializing in it. This may include a manager overseeing a forecasting group, or a student enrolled in an MBA program, an executive education course, or programs not specialising in analytics. Worked examples accompany the key formulae to show how they can be implemented. Key Features: While there are many books about forecasting technique, very few are published targeting managers. This book fills that gap. It provides the right balance between explaining the importance of demand forecasting and providing enough information to allow a busy manager to read a book and learn something that can be directly used in practice. It provides key takeaways that will help managers to make difference in their companies.
