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Short Range Forecasting Of Stratocumulus
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Book Synopsis Short-range Forecasting of Stratocumulus by : Susan P. Ballard
Download or read book Short-range Forecasting of Stratocumulus written by Susan P. Ballard and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Short-range Forecasting of Stratocumulus by : Susan P. Ballard
Download or read book Short-range Forecasting of Stratocumulus written by Susan P. Ballard and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Mesometeorology and Short-range Forecasting by : N. F. Velʹtishchev
Download or read book Mesometeorology and Short-range Forecasting written by N. F. Velʹtishchev and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Development of Stratocumulus Cloud Modeling in Coastal California for Solar Forecasting by : Elynn Wu
Download or read book Development of Stratocumulus Cloud Modeling in Coastal California for Solar Forecasting written by Elynn Wu and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 138 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Solar energy integration into the power grid requires forecasting of solar power due to the natural variability of solar irradiance, primarily due to clouds. Recently, rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) installations have grown dramatically in California, with a majority of these systems concentrated near the densely-populated coast. A common weather phenomena in coastal California are vast sheets of convective low clouds called Stratocumulus (Sc) clouds. The formation and dissipation of Sc clouds greatly impact solar power production. The challenges surrounding the modeling of Sc clouds come from the complex interplay among the governing physics--namely, surface-driven convection, cloud-top triggered convection, microphysical processes, and entrainment across the inversion layer. This thesis uses tools including satellite images, statistical analysis, and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to predict Sc clouds and generate solar irradiance forecast. First, a novel approach of tracking the evolution of stationary clouds to produce short-term solar forecast using satellite images is presented. The method predicts Sc dissipation time accurately by overcoming the limitation of the frozen cloud assumption in traditional cloud motion vector satellite solar forecasting techniques. Second, an observation-based analog ensemble forecast is investigated to better understand the meteorological variables contributing to Sc cloud lifetime. Intra-day analog ensemble solar forecasts suggest that boundary layer averaged heat, moisture, and height are key to capturing Sc dissipation time. Finally, Sc forecast beyond intra-day is investigated through the use of a numerical weather prediction model--Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF). In WRF, the planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme parameterizes mixing processes in the PBL that impact the heat and moisture profile in the PBL. An eddy-diffusivity/mass-flux (EDMF) framework is adopted to model realistic mixing in the PBL. The framework models the non-convective environment through eddy-diffusivity and the convective area using a mass-flux. Specifically, cloud-top triggered downdrafts are developed and integrated into the mass-flux model. Turbulent downdrafts help mix the heat and moisture in the top part of the PBL and result in better representation of thermodynamic profiles and cloud thickness.
Book Synopsis Advancing Solar Irradiance/marine Layer Stratocumulus Forecasting in California by : Xiaohui Zhong
Download or read book Advancing Solar Irradiance/marine Layer Stratocumulus Forecasting in California written by Xiaohui Zhong and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 127 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In summertime mornings, marine boundary layer (MBL) stratocumulus clouds commonly cover the southern California coast. The formation and dissipation of MBL stratocumulus affect the photovoltaic (PV) power. Increasing rooftop solar PV generation over the coast necessitates accurate solar forecasts to facilitate the reliable and economical integration of solar PV into the electric grid. For forecast horizons of hours to days, numerical weather prediction (NWP) and machine learning techniques are considered as the most accurate methods and widely used. However, the comparisons of NWP irradiance forecasts with ground measurements show that NWP models consistently overestimate the solar irradiance at the surface due to both clear sky biases and cloud modelling issues. As for machine learning techniques, most researchers either deliberately ignore meteorological conditions (for endogenous forecast models) or lack meteorological expertise to select meteorological input variables that go beyond classical weather station measurements such as air temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity. In this study, several methods are proposed to improve both NWP and machine learning forecast accuracy. Firstly, the clear sky irradiance bias in the New Goddard Shortwave (SW) scheme of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) scheme are found to be missing absorption of water vapor continuum. Use of the new parameterization of water vapor including water vapor continuum reduced WRF's clear sky biases. Secondly, we confirmed the positive correlation between temperature inversion base height (IBH) and inland extent of MBL stratocumulus, and postulated that WRF underprediction of cloud cover extent is due to underprediction of IBH. A thermodynamic method was developed to modify the boundary layer temperature and moisture profiles to better represent the boundary layer structure in WRF. Validation against satellite global horizontal irradiance (GHI) demonstrated that the best IBH ensemble improves GHI accuracy by 23% mean absolute error compared to the baseline WRF model and is similar to 24-hour persistence forecasts for coastal marine layer region. The spatial error maps showed deeper inland cloud cover. Thirdly, we focused on selecting appropriate meteorological input variables based on the characteristics of MBL clouds and studied how accurately support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and gradient boosting (GB) machine learning models predict solar radiation. All three models significantly outperform physics-based NWP models and 24-hour persistence in predicting solar radiation, especially during cloudy periods in the morning. The most important meteorological variables are found to be liquid water path, IBH, and thickness between 1000 and 500 mb pressure levels.
Book Synopsis A Statistical Aid to Forecasting Fall Stratocumulus in a Northerly Flow by : G. D. Moody
Download or read book A Statistical Aid to Forecasting Fall Stratocumulus in a Northerly Flow written by G. D. Moody and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 4 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Parameterization of Cumulus Convection by :
Download or read book The Parameterization of Cumulus Convection written by and published by . This book was released on 1978* with total page 199 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Short- and Medium-Range Numerical Weather Prediction by : Matsuno, T.
Download or read book Short- and Medium-Range Numerical Weather Prediction written by Matsuno, T. and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 870 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Stratocumulus-Topped Boundary Layers Over Coastal Land by : Mohamed Sherif Ghonima
Download or read book Stratocumulus-Topped Boundary Layers Over Coastal Land written by Mohamed Sherif Ghonima and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 130 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stratocumulus is the most common cloud type and has a strong impact on global climate. Over coastal lands, which are frequently well populated, these clouds have a strong impact on surface temperature and radiation through reflection of incoming solar radiation. The cloud behavior is determined both by small-scale processes such as turbulent mixing between two-phase, two-component, fluids at the cloud top and large-scale circulation such as anticyclones and their climatological occurrence. Due to the large range of spatial scales associated with stratocumulus clouds, global climate models (GCM) and numerical weather prediction models (NWP) parameterize the physical processes occurring in the stratocumulus-topped boundary layer (STBL). However, these models are unable to simulate the clouds accurately. For instance, in the North American Model stratocumulus clouds over the California coast in the summer dissipate earlier than observed via satellite. In this thesis, we first employ high-resolution Large Eddy Simulations (LES) and Mixed Layer Models (MLM) to study mechanisms regulating the timing of the break up. We find that over coastal lands, as the cloud thins during day, turbulence generated by surface fluxes becomes larger than turbulence generated by longwave cooling across the cloud layer. To capture this shift in turbulence generation in the MLM, we extend an existing entrainment parameterization to account for both sources. We find that cloud lifetime depends on a combination of surface moisture content, cloud-top entrainment flux, and large-scale horizontal advection by sea breeze. Next, we evaluate three different planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in simulating the STBL by benchmarking them against high-resolution LES. We find that the schemes do not take into account the turbulence generated by longwave cooling across the cloud layer and therefore underestimate the mixing of warm-dry tropospheric into the STBL at the cloud top. Thus, we propose a correction to the eddy diffusivity coefficient by adding a term that accounts for turbulence generated throughout the cloud layer as well as at the surface due to buoyancy flux. The modified scheme is then able to simulate the cloud physics similar to that of the LES. The modeling tools developed in this thesis have improved the understanding of and the ability to forecast stratocumulus-topped boundary layers.
Book Synopsis Renewable Energy Forecasting by : Georges Kariniotakis
Download or read book Renewable Energy Forecasting written by Georges Kariniotakis and published by Woodhead Publishing. This book was released on 2017-09-29 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Renewable Energy Forecasting: From Models to Applications provides an overview of the state-of-the-art of renewable energy forecasting technology and its applications. After an introduction to the principles of meteorology and renewable energy generation, groups of chapters address forecasting models, very short-term forecasting, forecasting of extremes, and longer term forecasting. The final part of the book focuses on important applications of forecasting for power system management and in energy markets. Due to shrinking fossil fuel reserves and concerns about climate change, renewable energy holds an increasing share of the energy mix. Solar, wind, wave, and hydro energy are dependent on highly variable weather conditions, so their increased penetration will lead to strong fluctuations in the power injected into the electricity grid, which needs to be managed. Reliable, high quality forecasts of renewable power generation are therefore essential for the smooth integration of large amounts of solar, wind, wave, and hydropower into the grid as well as for the profitability and effectiveness of such renewable energy projects. Offers comprehensive coverage of wind, solar, wave, and hydropower forecasting in one convenient volume Addresses a topic that is growing in importance, given the increasing penetration of renewable energy in many countries Reviews state-of-the-science techniques for renewable energy forecasting Contains chapters on operational applications
Book Synopsis Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports by :
Download or read book Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports written by and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 456 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Lists citations with abstracts for aerospace related reports obtained from world wide sources and announces documents that have recently been entered into the NASA Scientific and Technical Information Database.
Book Synopsis A Statistical-Dynamical Model for Forecasting Cold Air Stratocumulus Over the Yellow Sea by : H. L Massie (Jr)
Download or read book A Statistical-Dynamical Model for Forecasting Cold Air Stratocumulus Over the Yellow Sea written by H. L Massie (Jr) and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Satellite pictures from NOAA-6 are used in satiscally analyzing cloud amounts from November 1981 through February 1982. Cloud amount (N), defined as the amount of stratocumulus cloud field within the gridded area, is related to stability and relative humidity in the boundary layer. Stability is given by the boundary layer stability parameter, a quantity based on 850 mb height and temperature and the sea surface temperature. The statistical analysis yields regression equations which are used in a stepwise fashion to predict N. These are combined with a Lagrangian model to complete the statistical-dynamical model. The Lagrangian model simulations the modification of continental polar air to maritime polar air. Predictors for the empirical equations are obtained from the numerical simulation. Key variables, such as the 850 mb temperature and relative humidity, were found to agree well with observations. The sensitivity of the simulation to simplifying assumptions is investigated. The model is sensitive to variations in the range of vertical velocity and entrainment rate.
Book Synopsis Short Term Forecasting of Cloud and Precipitation Along Communication Paths by : Alan R. Bohne
Download or read book Short Term Forecasting of Cloud and Precipitation Along Communication Paths written by Alan R. Bohne and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis A Summary of Stratus and Stratocumulus and the Use of the 500 Mb Flow as a Forecasting Technique by : M. L. Dupilka
Download or read book A Summary of Stratus and Stratocumulus and the Use of the 500 Mb Flow as a Forecasting Technique written by M. L. Dupilka and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Publisher : ISBN 13 :1472960181 Total Pages : pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (729 download)
Book Synopsis Physical Modeling of Stratocumulus Cloud Mixing Processes in Numerical Weather Prediction Models by : Handa Yang
Download or read book Physical Modeling of Stratocumulus Cloud Mixing Processes in Numerical Weather Prediction Models written by Handa Yang and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 130 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stratocumulus (Sc) clouds are vast sheets of convective clouds which are responsible for the colloquial "May Gray" and "June Gloom" in southern California. The most prevalent cloud type by area, Sc possess strong reflective properties which result in a net cooling effect on the Earth's radiative balance. Accurate prediction of the spatial coverage and lifetime of Sc reduces uncertainty in global climate response due to the associated cloud feedback effect and facilitates the integration of solar power into the electrical grid through predictions of solar energy production. The modeling of Sc in global climate (GCM) and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models requires parameterization of physics governing Sc which consist of a complex interplay between cloud top- and surface-driven convection, radiative forcings, microphysical processes, and small-scale mixing across a stratified interface. The difficulty in characterizing these processes is compounded by the coarse resolution at which GCMs and NWPs operate. This thesis focuses on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) NWP model and its ability to predict Sc. First, different initialization techniques are compared to characterize the effect of initial cloud cover. Even when augmented with satellite-derived cloud cover, WRF predicts overly thick clouds over ocean and early dissipation times over land. Second, the WRF planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme, which is responsible for mixing processes in the PBL is investigated in a single-column model. A thick cloud bias was discovered to result from a cold and moist bias. Modifications were made to two PBL schemes to better account for deep mixing due to downdrafts and entrainment mixing at cloud top, leading to more accurate cloud thickness and lifetimes. Finally, a radiatively-driven downdraft mass flux model was developed in order to account for deep mixing in WRF through an eddy diffusivity-mass flux framework using large-eddy simulation, observational data, and turbulence theory. Many WRF PBL schemes neglect downdraft mixing, but turbulent downdrafts help couple the cloud layer with surface moisture and distribute the warm and dry air mixed in from aloft. These processes aid in sustaining the cloud, preventing the early dissipation bias frequently observed in weather predictions.
Book Synopsis Parameterization Schemes by : David J. Stensrud
Download or read book Parameterization Schemes written by David J. Stensrud and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-12-03 with total page 594 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Numerical weather prediction models play an increasingly important role in meteorology, both in short- and medium-range forecasting and global climate change studies. The most important components of any numerical weather prediction model are the subgrid-scale parameterization schemes, and the analysis and understanding of these schemes is a key aspect of numerical weather prediction. This book provides in-depth explorations of the most commonly used types of parameterization schemes that influence both short-range weather forecasts and global climate models. Several parameterizations are summarised and compared, followed by a discussion of their limitations. Review questions at the end of each chapter enable readers to monitor their understanding of the topics covered, and solutions are available to instructors at www.cambridge.org/9780521865401. This will be an essential reference for academic researchers, meteorologists, weather forecasters, and graduate students interested in numerical weather prediction and its use in weather forecasting.