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Shocks Crises And False Alarms
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Book Synopsis Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms by : Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak
Download or read book Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms written by Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and published by Harvard Business Press. This book was released on 2024-07-09 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An essential new guide to navigating macroeconomic risk. The shocks and crises of recent years—pandemic, recession, inflation, war—have forced executives and investors to recognize that the macroeconomy is now a risk to be actively managed. Yet unreliable forecasting, pervasive doomsaying, and whipsawing data severely hamper the task of decoding the landscape. Are disruptions transient and ephemeral—or permanent and structural? False alarms are costly traps, but so are true structural changes that go undetected. How can leaders avoid these macro traps to make better tactical and strategic decisions? In this perspective-shifting book, BCG Chief Economist Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Senior Economist Paul Swartz provide a fresh and accessible way to assess macroeconomic risk. Casting doubt on conventional model-based thinking, they demonstrate a more powerful approach to building sound macroeconomic judgment. Using incisive analysis built upon frameworks, historical context, and structural narratives—what they call "economic eclecticism"—the book empowers readers with the durable skills to assess continuously evolving risks in the real economy, the financial system, and the geopolitical arena. Moreover, the authors' more nuanced approach reveals that the all-too-common narratives of economic collapse and decline are often false alarms themselves, while the fundamental strengths of our current "era of tightness" become visible. With rational optimism rather than gloom, Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms speaks to the key financial and macroeconomic controversies that define our times—and provides a compass for navigating the global economy. Rather than relying on blinking dashboards or flashy headlines, leaders can and should judge macroeconomic risks for themselves.
Book Synopsis Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries by : Ms.Era Dabla-Norris
Download or read book Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries written by Ms.Era Dabla-Norris and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-11-02 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of a growth crisis in the event of large external shocks in low-income countries. Multivariate regression analysis and a univariate signaling approach are used to map information from a parsimonious set of underlying policy, structural, and institutional indicators into a composite vulnerability index. The results show that vulnerabilities to a growth crisis in low-income countries declined significantly from their peaks in the early 1990s, but have risen in recent years as fiscal policy buffers were expended in the wake of the global financial crisis.
Book Synopsis A Modern Guide to Financial Shocks and Crises by : Ferri, Giovanni
Download or read book A Modern Guide to Financial Shocks and Crises written by Ferri, Giovanni and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2021-12-14 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Offering a comprehensive guide to financial shocks and crises, this book explores their increasing occurrence in current market economies, as well as their power to wrench the macroeconomy. The book discusses three critical questions: what causes financial shocks; which channels may exacerbate their impact; and what policies could help avoid them or limit their negative effect on the economy and society at large.
Book Synopsis Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks by : Ms.Stefania Fabrizio
Download or read book Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks written by Ms.Stefania Fabrizio and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-06-20 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As part of its work to help low-income countries manage volatility, the IMF has developed an analytical framework for assessing vulnerabilities and emerging risks that arise from changes in the external environment. This paper draws on the results of the first vulnerability exercise for low-income countries conducted by the IMF staff using this new framework. It focuses on the risks of a downturn in global growth and of further global commodity price shocks and discusses related policy challenges. Chapters review recent macroeconomic developments, including the spike in global commodity prices in early 2012; assess current risks and vulnerabilities, including how a sharp downturn in global growth and further commodity price shocks would affect low-income countries; and discuss policy challenges in the face of these risks and vulnerabilities.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498338453 Total Pages :63 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks - Vulnerabilities and Policy Challenges for Low-Income Countries by : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Download or read book Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks - Vulnerabilities and Policy Challenges for Low-Income Countries written by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-09-21 with total page 63 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As part of its work to help low-income countries (LICs) manage volatility, the IMF has recently developed an analytical framework to assess vulnerabilities and emerging risks that arise from changes in the external environment (see IMF, 2011a). This report draws on the results of the first Vulnerability Exercise for LICs (VE-LIC) conducted by IMF staff using this new framework. The report focuses on the risks of a downturn in global growth and of further global commodity price shocks, and discusses related policy challenges. The report is organized as follows: Chapter I reviews recent macroeconomic developments, including the spike in global commodity prices earlier this year. Chapter II assesses current risks and vulnerabilities, including how a sharp downturn in global growth and further commodity price shocks would affect LICs. Chapter III discusses policy challenges in the face of these risks and vulnerabilities.
Book Synopsis Managing Volatility - A Vulnerability Exercise for Low-Income Countries by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Managing Volatility - A Vulnerability Exercise for Low-Income Countries written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-10-03 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper, introduces the analytical framework for a Vulnerability Exercise for Low-Income Countries (VE-LIC). The envisaged exercise will strive to identify vulnerabilities and emerging risks that arise from changes in the external environment in a consistent manner across countries and across time. The objective is to strengthen the staff’s capacity to spot vulnerabilities and flag potential pressure points in LICs arising from external triggers before they materialize.
Book Synopsis A Model to Assess the Probabilities of Growth, Fiscal, and Financial Crises by : Mr.Suman S Basu
Download or read book A Model to Assess the Probabilities of Growth, Fiscal, and Financial Crises written by Mr.Suman S Basu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-12-14 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper summarizes a suite of early warning models to assess the probabilities of growth, fiscal, and financial crises in advanced economies and emerging markets. We estimate separate signal-extraction models for each type of crisis and sample of countries, and we use our results to generate “histories of vulnerabilities” for countries, regions, and the world. For the global financial crisis, our models report that vulnerabilities in advanced economies were rooted in the bursting of leveraged bubbles, while vulnerabilities in emerging markets stemmed from lengthy booms in credit and asset prices combined with growing weaknesses in the corporate and external sectors.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1513568329 Total Pages :124 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (135 download)
Book Synopsis Review of The Debt Sustainability Framework For Market Access Countries by : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Download or read book Review of The Debt Sustainability Framework For Market Access Countries written by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-02-03 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A careful review has revealed significant scope to modernize and better align the MAC DSA with its objectives and the IMF’s lending framework. This note proposes replacing the current framework with a new methodology based on risk assessments at three different horizons. Extensive testing has shown that the proposed framework has much better predictive accuracy than the current one. In addition to predicting sovereign stress, the framework can be used to derive statements about debt stabilization under current policies and about debt sustainability.
Book Synopsis Arms and Influence by : Thomas C. Schelling
Download or read book Arms and Influence written by Thomas C. Schelling and published by Yale University Press. This book was released on 2020-03-17 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “This is a brilliant and hardheaded book. It will frighten those who prefer not to dwell on the unthinkable and infuriate those who have taken refuge in stereotypes and moral attitudinizing.”—Gordon A. Craig, New York Times Book Review Originally published more than fifty years ago, this landmark book explores the ways in which military capabilities—real or imagined—are used, skillfully or clumsily, as bargaining power. Anne-Marie Slaughter’s new introduction to the work shows how Schelling’s framework—conceived of in a time of superpowers and mutually assured destruction—still applies to our multipolar world, where wars are fought as much online as on the ground.
Author :Management Association, Information Resources Publisher :IGI Global ISBN 13 :1522539336 Total Pages :482 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (225 download)
Book Synopsis Risk and Contingency Management: Breakthroughs in Research and Practice by : Management Association, Information Resources
Download or read book Risk and Contingency Management: Breakthroughs in Research and Practice written by Management Association, Information Resources and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2017-12-01 with total page 482 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In business, mistakes and errors will inevitably occur. As such, organizations must be constantly alert and ready to meet challenges head-on. Risk and Contingency Management: Breakthroughs in Research and Practice is a comprehensive reference source for the latest scholarly material on trends and techniques for the prediction and evaluation of financial risks and how to diminish their effect. Highlighting a range of pertinent topics such as project management, risk auditing and reporting, and resource management, this multi-volume book is ideally designed for researchers, academics, professionals, managers, students, and practitioners interested in risk and contingency management.
Book Synopsis Predicting Fiscal Crises by : Ms.Svetlana Cerovic
Download or read book Predicting Fiscal Crises written by Ms.Svetlana Cerovic and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-08-03 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper identifies leading indicators of fiscal crises based on a large sample of countries at different stages of development over 1970-2015. Our results are robust to different methodologies and sample periods. Previous literature on early warning sistems (EWS) for fiscal crises is scarce and based on small samples of advanced and emerging markets, raising doubts about the robustness of the results. Using a larger sample, our analysis shows that both nonfiscal (external and internal imbalances) and fiscal variables help predict crises among advanced and emerging economies. Our models performed well in out-of-sample forecasting and in predicting the most recent crises, a weakness of EWS in general. We also build EWS for low income countries, which had been overlooked in the literature.
Book Synopsis Debt Sustainability in Low-Income Countries by : Yasemin Bal Gunduz
Download or read book Debt Sustainability in Low-Income Countries written by Yasemin Bal Gunduz and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-05-09 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates the determinants of external debt distress in low-income countries (LICs), disentangling the roles of institutions, shocks, and policies. The most prominent factors in raising the risk of debt distress are the weak protection of private property rights, adverse shocks to real non-oil commodity prices, and a high debt burden. Results also suggest that weak economic institutions tend to raise the probability of debt distress through persistently weak economic policies and high vulnerability to external shocks. The model enables a more granular analysis of debt sustainability in LICs and has a higher predictive power compared to the earlier scant literature.
Book Synopsis How to Assess Country Risk by : International Monetary
Download or read book How to Assess Country Risk written by International Monetary and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-05-07 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The IMF’s Vulnerability Exercise (VE) is a cross-country exercise that identifies country-specific near-term macroeconomic risks. As a key element of the Fund’s broader risk architecture, the VE is a bottom-up, multi-sectoral approach to risk assessments for all IMF member countries. The VE modeling toolkit is regularly updated in response to global economic developments and the latest modeling innovations. The new generation of VE models presented here leverages machine-learning algorithms. The models can better capture interactions between different parts of the economy and non-linear relationships that are not well measured in ”normal times.” The performance of machine-learning-based models is evaluated against more conventional models in a horse-race format. The paper also presents direct, transparent methods for communicating model results.
Book Synopsis The Role of Macroeconomic Shocks in Banking Crises by : Jarmo Pesola
Download or read book The Role of Macroeconomic Shocks in Banking Crises written by Jarmo Pesola and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Discipline in the Global Economy? by : Jakob Vestergaard
Download or read book Discipline in the Global Economy? written by Jakob Vestergaard and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-01-13 with total page 517 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Discipline in the Global Economy, Jakob Vestergaard investigates the currently prevailing regulation of international finance, launched in response to the financial crises of the 1990’s. At the core of this approach is a set of standards of ‘best practice’, ranging from banking supervision to corporate governance. Vestergaard argues that although these standards are presented as ‘international’, they comprise a norm for the ‘proper’ organization and regulation of economies which is intimately related to the Anglo-American model of capitalism. With this approach to the regulation of international finance, previous deregulation policies were replaced by a comprehensive system for the global disciplining of economies. This is a remarkable, if not paradoxical, occurrence in what is allegedly the heyday of neoliberalism and ‘free market economy’. Moreover, this mode of international financial regulation has proved ineffective, if not counter-productive, in terms of its objective to enhance the stability and resilience of the international financial system. Only by abandoning ‘laissez-fairy tales’ about liberalism may we begin to understand our present predicament– and open a space for critical thinking on modes of international economic governance that are at the same time more conducive to financial stability and more in line with the ethos of liberalism.
Book Synopsis Natural Disasters and Food Crises in Low-Income Countries by : Mr.Olumuyiwa Adedeji
Download or read book Natural Disasters and Food Crises in Low-Income Countries written by Mr.Olumuyiwa Adedeji and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-03-17 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The exposure of low-income countries to natural disasters has a significant impact on food production and food security. This paper provides a framework for assessing a country’s vulnerability to food crisis in the event of natural disasters. The paper finds that macroeconomic and structural indicators that are crucial for ensuring the resilience of low-income countries to adverse external shocks are equally important for minimizing the occurrence of food crisis in the event of natural disasters.
Book Synopsis Serial Sovereign Defaults and Debt Restructurings by : Mr.Tamon Asonuma
Download or read book Serial Sovereign Defaults and Debt Restructurings written by Mr.Tamon Asonuma and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-03-21 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Emerging countries that have defaulted on their debt repayment obligations in the past are more likely to default again in the future than are non-defaulters even with the same external debt-to-GDP ratio. These countries actually have repeated defaults or restructurings in short periods. This paper explains these stylized facts within a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework by explicitly modeling renegotiations between a defaulting country and its creditors. The quantitative analysis of the model reveals that the equilibrium probability of default for a given debt-to-GDP level is weakly increasing with the number of past defaults. The model also accords with an additional fact: lower recovery rates (high NPV haircuts) are associated with increases in spreads at renegotiation.
