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Download or read book Robust Forecasting with Exponential and Holt-Winters Smoothing written by and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Rob J Hyndman
Publisher : OTexts
ISBN 13 : 0987507117
Total Pages : 380 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (875 download)
Download or read book Forecasting: principles and practice written by Rob J Hyndman and published by OTexts. This book was released on 2018-05-08 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Author : Ruben Crevits
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 25 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book Forecasting Using Robust Exponential Smoothing with Damped Trend and Seasonal Components written by Ruben Crevits and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We provide a framework for robust exponential smoothing. For a class of exponential smoothing variants, we present a robust alternative. The class includes models with a damped trend and/or seasonal components. We provide robust forecasting equations, robust starting values, robust smoothing parameter estimation and a robust information criterion. The method is implemented in the R package robets, allowing for automatic forecasting. We compare the standard non-robust version with the robust alternative in a simulation study. Finally, the methodology is tested on data.
Author : Yuriy Kharin
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3319008404
Total Pages : 369 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (19 download)
Download or read book Robustness in Statistical Forecasting written by Yuriy Kharin and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-09-04 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers solutions to such topical problems as developing mathematical models and descriptions of typical distortions in applied forecasting problems; evaluating robustness for traditional forecasting procedures under distortionism and more.
Author : Rob Hyndman
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3540719180
Total Pages : 362 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (47 download)
Download or read book Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing written by Rob Hyndman and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-06-19 with total page 362 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Exponential smoothing methods have been around since the 1950s, and are still the most popular forecasting methods used in business and industry. However, a modeling framework incorporating stochastic models, likelihood calculation, prediction intervals and procedures for model selection, was not developed until recently. This book brings together all of the important new results on the state space framework for exponential smoothing. It will be of interest to people wanting to apply the methods in their own area of interest as well as for researchers wanting to take the ideas in new directions. Part 1 provides an introduction to exponential smoothing and the underlying models. The essential details are given in Part 2, which also provide links to the most important papers in the literature. More advanced topics are covered in Part 3, including the mathematical properties of the models and extensions of the models for specific problems. Applications to particular domains are discussed in Part 4.
Author : Ricardo A. Maronna
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119214688
Total Pages : 466 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (192 download)
Download or read book Robust Statistics written by Ricardo A. Maronna and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2019-01-04 with total page 466 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A new edition of this popular text on robust statistics, thoroughly updated to include new and improved methods and focus on implementation of methodology using the increasingly popular open-source software R. Classical statistics fail to cope well with outliers associated with deviations from standard distributions. Robust statistical methods take into account these deviations when estimating the parameters of parametric models, thus increasing the reliability of fitted models and associated inference. This new, second edition of Robust Statistics: Theory and Methods (with R) presents a broad coverage of the theory of robust statistics that is integrated with computing methods and applications. Updated to include important new research results of the last decade and focus on the use of the popular software package R, it features in-depth coverage of the key methodology, including regression, multivariate analysis, and time series modeling. The book is illustrated throughout by a range of examples and applications that are supported by a companion website featuring data sets and R code that allow the reader to reproduce the examples given in the book. Unlike other books on the market, Robust Statistics: Theory and Methods (with R) offers the most comprehensive, definitive, and up-to-date treatment of the subject. It features chapters on estimating location and scale; measuring robustness; linear regression with fixed and with random predictors; multivariate analysis; generalized linear models; time series; numerical algorithms; and asymptotic theory of M-estimates. Explains both the use and theoretical justification of robust methods Guides readers in selecting and using the most appropriate robust methods for their problems Features computational algorithms for the core methods Robust statistics research results of the last decade included in this 2nd edition include: fast deterministic robust regression, finite-sample robustness, robust regularized regression, robust location and scatter estimation with missing data, robust estimation with independent outliers in variables, and robust mixed linear models. Robust Statistics aims to stimulate the use of robust methods as a powerful tool to increase the reliability and accuracy of statistical modelling and data analysis. It is an ideal resource for researchers, practitioners, and graduate students in statistics, engineering, computer science, and physical and social sciences.
Author : John E. Boylan
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119135303
Total Pages : 403 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (191 download)
Download or read book Intermittent Demand Forecasting written by John E. Boylan and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2021-06-02 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: INTERMITTENT DEMAND FORECASTING The first text to focus on the methods and approaches of intermittent, rather than fast, demand forecasting Intermittent Demand Forecasting is for anyone who is interested in improving forecasts of intermittent demand products, and enhancing the management of inventories. Whether you are a practitioner, at the sharp end of demand planning, a software designer, a student, an academic teaching operational research or operations management courses, or a researcher in this field, we hope that the book will inspire you to rethink demand forecasting. If you do so, then you can contribute towards significant economic and environmental benefits. No prior knowledge of intermittent demand forecasting or inventory management is assumed in this book. The key formulae are accompanied by worked examples to show how they can be implemented in practice. For those wishing to understand the theory in more depth, technical notes are provided at the end of each chapter, as well as an extensive and up-to-date collection of references for further study. Software developments are reviewed, to give an appreciation of the current state of the art in commercial and open source software. “Intermittent demand forecasting may seem like a specialized area but actually is at the center of sustainability efforts to consume less and to waste less. Boylan and Syntetos have done a superb job in showing how improvements in inventory management are pivotal in achieving this. Their book covers both the theory and practice of intermittent demand forecasting and my prediction is that it will fast become the bible of the field.” —Spyros Makridakis, Professor, University of Nicosia, and Director, Institute for the Future and the Makridakis Open Forecasting Center (MOFC). “We have been able to support our clients by adopting many of the ideas discussed in this excellent book, and implementing them in our software. I am sure that these ideas will be equally helpful for other supply chain software vendors and for companies wanting to update and upgrade their capabilities in forecasting and inventory management.” —Suresh Acharya, VP, Research and Development, Blue Yonder. “As product variants proliferate and the pace of business quickens, more and more items have intermittent demand. Boylan and Syntetos have long been leaders in extending forecasting and inventory methods to accommodate this new reality. Their book gathers and clarifies decades of research in this area, and explains how practitioners can exploit this knowledge to make their operations more efficient and effective.” —Thomas R. Willemain, Professor Emeritus, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.
Author : Claudia Becker
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642354947
Total Pages : 377 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (423 download)
Download or read book Robustness and Complex Data Structures written by Claudia Becker and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2014-07-08 with total page 377 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Festschrift in honour of Ursula Gather’s 60th birthday deals with modern topics in the field of robust statistical methods, especially for time series and regression analysis, and with statistical methods for complex data structures. The individual contributions of leading experts provide a textbook-style overview of the topic, supplemented by current research results and questions. The statistical theory and methods in this volume aim at the analysis of data which deviate from classical stringent model assumptions, which contain outlying values and/or have a complex structure. Written for researchers as well as master and PhD students with a good knowledge of statistics.
Author : Chris Chatfield
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1420036203
Total Pages : 281 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)
Download or read book Time-Series Forecasting written by Chris Chatfield and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2000-10-25 with total page 281 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the author of the bestselling "Analysis of Time Series," Time-Series Forecasting offers a comprehensive, up-to-date review of forecasting methods. It provides a summary of time-series modelling procedures, followed by a brief catalogue of many different time-series forecasting methods, ranging from ad-hoc methods through ARIMA and state-space
Author : Ricardo A. Maronna
Publisher : Wiley
ISBN 13 : 9780470010921
Total Pages : 436 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (19 download)
Download or read book Robust Statistics written by Ricardo A. Maronna and published by Wiley. This book was released on 2006-05-12 with total page 436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Classical statistical techniques fail to cope well with deviations from a standard distribution. Robust statistical methods take into account these deviations while estimating the parameters of parametric models, thus increasing the accuracy of the inference. Research into robust methods is flourishing, with new methods being developed and different applications considered. Robust Statistics sets out to explain the use of robust methods and their theoretical justification. It provides an up-to-date overview of the theory and practical application of the robust statistical methods in regression, multivariate analysis, generalized linear models and time series. This unique book: Enables the reader to select and use the most appropriate robust method for their particular statistical model. Features computational algorithms for the core methods. Covers regression methods for data mining applications. Includes examples with real data and applications using the S-Plus robust statistics library. Describes the theoretical and operational aspects of robust methods separately, so the reader can choose to focus on one or the other. Supported by a supplementary website featuring time-limited S-Plus download, along with datasets and S-Plus code to allow the reader to reproduce the examples given in the book. Robust Statistics aims to stimulate the use of robust methods as a powerful tool to increase the reliability and accuracy of statistical modelling and data analysis. It is ideal for researchers, practitioners and graduate students of statistics, electrical, chemical and biochemical engineering, and computer vision. There is also much to benefit researchers from other sciences, such as biotechnology, who need to use robust statistical methods in their work.
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 30 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (932 download)
Download or read book A robust version of Winter's seasonal exponential smoothing method written by and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A generalisation of Winter's additive seasonal exponential smoothing method is considered ...
Author : Souvik Bhattacharyya
Publisher : Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG
ISBN 13 : 3110697211
Total Pages : 164 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (16 download)
Download or read book Noise Filtering for Big Data Analytics written by Souvik Bhattacharyya and published by Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG. This book was released on 2022-06-21 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explains how to perform data de-noising, in large scale, with a satisfactory level of accuracy. Three main issues are considered. Firstly, how to eliminate the error propagation from one stage to next stages while developing a filtered model. Secondly, how to maintain the positional importance of data whilst purifying it. Finally, preservation of memory in the data is crucial to extract smart data from noisy big data. If, after the application of any form of smoothing or filtering, the memory of the corresponding data changes heavily, then the final data may lose some important information. This may lead to wrong or erroneous conclusions. But, when anticipating any loss of information due to smoothing or filtering, one cannot avoid the process of denoising as on the other hand any kind of analysis of big data in the presence of noise can be misleading. So, the entire process demands very careful execution with efficient and smart models in order to effectively deal with it.
Author : Aida Binti Mustapha
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 9811689032
Total Pages : 464 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (116 download)
Download or read book Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on the Applications of Science and Mathematics 2021 written by Aida Binti Mustapha and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-06-28 with total page 464 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents peer-reviewed articles and recent advances on the potential applications of Science and Mathematics for future technologies, from the 7th International Conference on the Applications of Science and Mathematics (SCIEMATHIC 2021), held in Malaysia. It provides an insight about the leading trends in sustainable Science and Technology. The world is looking for sustainable solutions to problems more than ever. The synergistic approach of mathematicians, scientists and engineers has undeniable importance for future technologies. With this viewpoint, SCIEMATHIC 2021 has the theme “Quest for Sustainable Science and Mathematics for Future Technologies”. The conference brings together physicists, mathematicians, statisticians and data scientists, providing a platform to find sustainable solutions to major problems around us. The works presented here are suitable for professionals and researchers globally in making the world a better and sustainable place.
Author : Juan Carlos Figueroa-García
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3030003507
Total Pages : 635 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (3 download)
Download or read book Applied Computer Sciences in Engineering written by Juan Carlos Figueroa-García and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-09-12 with total page 635 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This two-volume set (CCIS 915 and CCIS 916) constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 5th Workshop on Engineering Applications, WEA 2018, held in Medellín, Colombia, in October 2018. The 50 revised full papers presented in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected from126 submissions. The papers are organized in topical sections such as computer science; computational intelligence; simulation systems; software engineering; power and energy applications.
Author : Ivan Zelinka
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3319005421
Total Pages : 529 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (19 download)
Download or read book Nostradamus 2013: Prediction, Modeling and Analysis of Complex Systems written by Ivan Zelinka and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-13 with total page 529 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Prediction of behavior of the dynamical systems, analysis and modeling of its structure is vitally important problem in engineering, economy and science today. Examples of such systems can be seen in the world around us and of course in almost every scientific discipline including such “exotic” domains like the earth’s atmosphere, turbulent fluids, economies (exchange rate and stock markets), population growth, physics (control of plasma), information flow in social networks and its dynamics, chemistry and complex networks. To understand such dynamics and to use it in research or industrial applications, it is important to create its models. For this purpose there is rich spectra of methods, from classical like ARMA models or Box Jenkins method to such modern ones like evolutionary computation, neural networks, fuzzy logic, fractal geometry, deterministic chaos and more. This proceeding book is a collection of the accepted papers to conference Nostradamus that has been held in Ostrava, Czech Republic. Proceeding also comprises of outstanding keynote speeches by distinguished guest speakers: Guanrong Chen (Hong Kong), Miguel A. F. Sanjuan (Spain), Gennady Leonov and Nikolay Kuznetsov (Russia), Petr Škoda (Czech Republic). The main aim of the conference is to create periodical possibility for students, academics and researchers to exchange their ideas and novel methods. This conference will establish forum for presentation and discussion of recent trends in the area of applications of various predictive methods for researchers, students and academics.
Author : Stephan Kolassa
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 100095899X
Total Pages : 269 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (9 download)
Download or read book Demand Forecasting for Executives and Professionals written by Stephan Kolassa and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2023-09-29 with total page 269 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book surveys what executives who make decisions based on forecasts and professionals responsible for forecasts should know about forecasting. It discusses how individuals and firms should think about forecasting and guidelines for good practices. It introduces readers to the subject of time series, presents basic and advanced forecasting models, from exponential smoothing across ARIMA to modern Machine Learning methods, and examines human judgment's role in interpreting numbers and identifying forecasting errors and how it should be integrated into organizations. This is a great book to start learning about forecasting if you are new to the area or have some preliminary exposure to forecasting. Whether you are a practitioner, either in a role managing a forecasting team or at operationally involved in demand planning, a software designer, a student or an academic teaching business analytics, operational research, or operations management courses, the book can inspire you to rethink demand forecasting. No prior knowledge of higher mathematics, statistics, operations research, or forecasting is assumed in this book. It is designed to serve as a first introduction to the non-expert who needs to be familiar with the broad outlines of forecasting without specializing in it. This may include a manager overseeing a forecasting group, or a student enrolled in an MBA program, an executive education course, or programs not specialising in analytics. Worked examples accompany the key formulae to show how they can be implemented. Key Features: While there are many books about forecasting technique, very few are published targeting managers. This book fills that gap. It provides the right balance between explaining the importance of demand forecasting and providing enough information to allow a busy manager to read a book and learn something that can be directly used in practice. It provides key takeaways that will help managers to make difference in their companies.
Author : J.S. Armstrong
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9780792374015
Total Pages : 880 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (74 download)
Download or read book Principles of Forecasting written by J.S. Armstrong and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2001 with total page 880 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook summarises knowledge from experts and empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. Includes a comprehensive forecasting dictionary.
