Risk Taking And Uncertainty

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Managing Risk and Uncertainty

Author : Richard Friberg
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262528193
Total Pages : 395 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (625 download)

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Book Synopsis Managing Risk and Uncertainty by : Richard Friberg

Download or read book Managing Risk and Uncertainty written by Richard Friberg and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-11-13 with total page 395 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive framework for assessing strategies for managing risk and uncertainty, integrating theory and practice and synthesizing insights from many fields. This book offers a framework for making decisions under risk and uncertainty. Synthesizing research from economics, finance, decision theory, management, and other fields, the book provides a set of tools and a way of thinking that determines the relative merits of different strategies. It takes as its premise that we make better decisions if we use the whole toolkit of economics and related fields to inform our decision making. The text explores the distinction between risk and uncertainty and covers standard models of decision making under risk as well as more recent work on decision making under uncertainty, with a particular focus on strategic interaction. It also examines the implications of incomplete markets for managing under uncertainty. It presents four core strategies: a benchmark strategy (proceeding as if risk and uncertainty were low), a financial hedging strategy (valuable if there is much risk), an operational hedging strategy (valuable for conditions of much uncertainty), and a flexible strategy (valuable if there is much risk and/or uncertainty). The book then examines various aspects of these strategies in greater depth, building on empirical work in several different fields. Topics include price-setting, real options and Monte Carlo techniques, organizational structure, and behavioral biases. Many chapters include exercises and appendixes with additional material. The book can be used in graduate or advanced undergraduate courses in risk management, as a guide for researchers, or as a reference for management practitioners.

Taking Risks

Author : Kenneth R. Maccrimmon
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
ISBN 13 : 0029195632
Total Pages : 404 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (291 download)

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Book Synopsis Taking Risks by : Kenneth R. Maccrimmon

Download or read book Taking Risks written by Kenneth R. Maccrimmon and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 1988-09-19 with total page 404 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Offers tests designed to measure one's willingness to take risks, describes characteristics associated with this quality, and discusses the importance of risk-taking in management and investment situations.

Risk, Uncertainty and Profit

Author : Frank H. Knight
Publisher : Cosimo, Inc.
ISBN 13 : 1602060053
Total Pages : 401 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk, Uncertainty and Profit by : Frank H. Knight

Download or read book Risk, Uncertainty and Profit written by Frank H. Knight and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2006-11-01 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.

Proactive Risk Management

Author : Guy M. Merritt
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1482278227
Total Pages : 250 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (822 download)

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Book Synopsis Proactive Risk Management by : Guy M. Merritt

Download or read book Proactive Risk Management written by Guy M. Merritt and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2020-10-28 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Listed as one of the 30 Best Business Books of 2002 by Executive Book Summaries. Proactive Risk Management's unique approach provides a model of risk that is scalable to any size project or program and easily deployable into any product development or project management life cycle. It offers methods for identifying drivers (causes) of risks so you can manage root causes rather than the symptoms of risks. Providing you with an appropriate quantification of the key factors of a risk allows you to prioritize those risks without introducing errors that render the numbers meaningless. This book stands apart from much of the literature on project risk management in its practical, easy-to-use, fact-based approach to managing all of the risks associated with a project. The depth of actual how-to information and techniques provided here is not available anywhere else.

Uncertainty and Risk Taking in Individual and Group Decision

Author : Donald George Marquis
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (143 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty and Risk Taking in Individual and Group Decision by : Donald George Marquis

Download or read book Uncertainty and Risk Taking in Individual and Group Decision written by Donald George Marquis and published by . This book was released on 1968 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 030904894X
Total Pages : 668 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment by : National Research Council

Download or read book Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1994-01-01 with total page 668 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The public depends on competent risk assessment from the federal government and the scientific community to grapple with the threat of pollution. When risk reports turn out to be overblownâ€"or when risks are overlookedâ€"public skepticism abounds. This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. With a wealth of detailed information, pertinent examples, and revealing analysis, the volume explores the "default option" and other basic concepts. It offers two views of EPA operations: The first examines how EPA currently assesses exposure to hazardous air pollutants, evaluates the toxicity of a substance, and characterizes the risk to the public. The second, more holistic, view explores how EPA can improve in several critical areas of risk assessment by focusing on cross-cutting themes and incorporating more scientific judgment. This comprehensive volume will be important to the EPA and other agencies, risk managers, environmental advocates, scientists, faculty, students, and concerned individuals.

Uncertainty in Risk Assessment, Risk Management, and Decision Making

Author : V.T. Covello
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 9780306425578
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (255 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty in Risk Assessment, Risk Management, and Decision Making by : V.T. Covello

Download or read book Uncertainty in Risk Assessment, Risk Management, and Decision Making written by V.T. Covello and published by Springer. This book was released on 1987-05-31 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The subject of this volume--uncertainties in risk assessment and management--reflects an important theme in health, safety, and environ mental decision making. MOst technological hazards are characterized by substantial uncertainty. Recent examples include nuclear waste disposal, acid rain, asbestos in schools, carcinogens in food, and hazardous waste. realing with such uncertainty is arguably the most difficult and challeng ing task facing risk assessors and managers today. Four primary sources of uncertainty in risk assessment and management can be identified: (1) uncertainties about definitions; (2) uncertainties about scientific facts; (3) uncertainties about risk perceptions and atti tudes; and (4) uncertainties about values. Uncertainties about definitions derive primarily from disagreements about the meaning and interpretation of key concepts, such as probability. Uncertainties about scientific facts derive primarily from disagreements about failure modes, the probability and magnitude of adverse health or environmental consequences, cause and effect relationships, dose-response relationships, and exposure patterns. Uncertainties about risk perceptions and attitudes derive primarily from disagreements about what constitutes a significant or acceptable level of risk. Uncertainties about values derive primarily from disagreements about the desirability or worth of alternative risk management actions or conse quences. The papers in this volume address each of these sources of uncertainty from a variety of perspectives. Reflecting the broad scope of risk assess ment and risk management research, the papers include contributions from safety engineers, epidemiologists, toxicologists, chemists, biostatisticians, biologists, decision analysts, economists, psychologists, political scien tists, sociologists, ethicists, and lawyers.

Risk Taking

Author : Zur Shapira
Publisher : Russell Sage Foundation
ISBN 13 : 1610444922
Total Pages : 189 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (14 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk Taking by : Zur Shapira

Download or read book Risk Taking written by Zur Shapira and published by Russell Sage Foundation. This book was released on 1995-01-25 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Classical economic theory assumes that people in risk situations follow a course of action based on a rational, consistent assessment of likely outcomes. But as Zur Shapira demonstrates in Risk Taking, corporate managers consistently stray from the prescribed path into far more subjective territory. Risk Taking offers a critical assessment of the relationship between theory and action in managerial decision making. Shapira offers a definitive account of the classical conception of risky decision making, which derives behavioral prescriptions from a calculation of both the value and the likelihood of possible outcomes. He then demonstrates how theories in this vein have been historically at odds with empirical observations. Risk Taking reports the results of an extensive survey of seven hundred managers that probed their attitudes and beliefs about risk and examined how they had actually made decisions in the face of uncertainty. The picture that emerges is of a dynamic, flexible process in which each manager's personal expertise and perceptions play profound roles. Managerial strategies are continually modified to suit changing circumstances. Rather than formulating probability estimates, executives create potential scenarios based not only on the possible outcomes but also on the many arbitrary factors inherent in their own situations. As Shapira notes, risk taking propensities vary among managers, and the need to maintain control and avoid particularly dangerous results exercises a powerful influence. Shapira also examines the impact of organizational structure, long-term management objectives, and incentives on decision making. With perceptive observations of the cognitive, emotional, and organizational dimensions of corporate decision making, Risk Taking propels the study of managerial risk behavior into new directions. This volume signals the way toward improving managerial decision making by revealing the need for more inclusive choice models that augment classical theory with vital behavioral observations.

Risk: How to Make Decisions in an Uncertain World

Author : Zeger Degraeve
Publisher : Dreamtech Press
ISBN 13 : 9788177226867
Total Pages : 100 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (268 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk: How to Make Decisions in an Uncertain World by : Zeger Degraeve

Download or read book Risk: How to Make Decisions in an Uncertain World written by Zeger Degraeve and published by Dreamtech Press. This book was released on 2006 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book is a concise overview of the principles of risk management and decision making. It helps you analyse risks, choose the right way to handle them and improve your decision making. The book is a concise overview of the principles of risk management and decision making. It helps you analyse risks, choose the right way to handle them and improve your decision making.

Uncertainty in Risk Assessment, Risk Management, and Decision Making

Author : V.T. Covello
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1468453173
Total Pages : 523 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (684 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty in Risk Assessment, Risk Management, and Decision Making by : V.T. Covello

Download or read book Uncertainty in Risk Assessment, Risk Management, and Decision Making written by V.T. Covello and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-08 with total page 523 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The subject of this volume--uncertainties in risk assessment and management--reflects an important theme in health, safety, and environ mental decision making. MOst technological hazards are characterized by substantial uncertainty. Recent examples include nuclear waste disposal, acid rain, asbestos in schools, carcinogens in food, and hazardous waste. realing with such uncertainty is arguably the most difficult and challeng ing task facing risk assessors and managers today. Four primary sources of uncertainty in risk assessment and management can be identified: (1) uncertainties about definitions; (2) uncertainties about scientific facts; (3) uncertainties about risk perceptions and atti tudes; and (4) uncertainties about values. Uncertainties about definitions derive primarily from disagreements about the meaning and interpretation of key concepts, such as probability. Uncertainties about scientific facts derive primarily from disagreements about failure modes, the probability and magnitude of adverse health or environmental consequences, cause and effect relationships, dose-response relationships, and exposure patterns. Uncertainties about risk perceptions and attitudes derive primarily from disagreements about what constitutes a significant or acceptable level of risk. Uncertainties about values derive primarily from disagreements about the desirability or worth of alternative risk management actions or conse quences. The papers in this volume address each of these sources of uncertainty from a variety of perspectives. Reflecting the broad scope of risk assess ment and risk management research, the papers include contributions from safety engineers, epidemiologists, toxicologists, chemists, biostatisticians, biologists, decision analysts, economists, psychologists, political scien tists, sociologists, ethicists, and lawyers.

Effects of Uncertainty on Individual and Group Risk Taking

Author : John Henry Hubbard
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 130 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (338 download)

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Book Synopsis Effects of Uncertainty on Individual and Group Risk Taking by : John Henry Hubbard

Download or read book Effects of Uncertainty on Individual and Group Risk Taking written by John Henry Hubbard and published by . This book was released on 1963 with total page 130 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Surviving and Thriving in Uncertainty

Author : Frederick Funston
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470617489
Total Pages : 368 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (76 download)

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Book Synopsis Surviving and Thriving in Uncertainty by : Frederick Funston

Download or read book Surviving and Thriving in Uncertainty written by Frederick Funston and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-06-03 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A new book to help senior executives and boards get smart about risk management The ability of businesses to survive and thrive often requires unconventional thinking and calculated risk taking. The key is to make the right decisions—even under the most risky, uncertain, and turbulent conditions. In the new book, Surviving and Thriving in Uncertainty: Creating the Risk Intelligent Enterprise, authors Rick Funston and Steve Wagner suggest that effective risk taking is needed in order to innovate, stay competitive, and drive value creation. Based on their combined decades of experience as practitioners, consultants, and advisors to numerous business professionals throughout the world, Funston and Wagner discuss the adoption of 10 essential and practical skills, which will improve agility, resilience, and realize benefits: Challenging basic business assumptions can help identify "Black Swans" and provide first-mover advantage Defining the corporate risk appetite and risk tolerances can help reduce the risk of ruin. Anticipating potential causes of failure can improve chances of survival and success through improved preparedness. Factoring in velocity and momentum can improve speed of response and recovery. Verifying sources and the reliability of information can improve insights for decision making and thus decision quality. Taking a longer-term perspective can aid in identifying the potential unintended consequences of short-term decisions.

Solving for Project Risk Management: Understanding the Critical Role of Uncertainty in Project Management

Author : Christian B. Smart
Publisher : McGraw Hill Professional
ISBN 13 : 1260473848
Total Pages : 321 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (64 download)

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Book Synopsis Solving for Project Risk Management: Understanding the Critical Role of Uncertainty in Project Management by : Christian B. Smart

Download or read book Solving for Project Risk Management: Understanding the Critical Role of Uncertainty in Project Management written by Christian B. Smart and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2020-11-23 with total page 321 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk is real—but you can manage it with this hard-hitting guide to reducing risk on any project, in any industry All projects, large and small, are subject to various risks. But the failure to manage inherent risk with diligence and know-how can lead to devastating consequences for an organization. In this comprehensive hands-on guide, a renowned expert in the field provides everything organizations need to conduct project risk management the right way. Why do so many projects come in over schedule and over budget? How do projected expenditures and schedules line up with reality? How can you accurately assess risk to mitigate financial disaster? Through a methodical, statistics-based approach, Christian B. Smart reveals: The enduring problem of cost and schedule growth How rigorous project risk management can reduce the impact of uncertainty The systematic tendency to underestimate risk—and how to avoid it Ways to accurately assess confidence levels in project risk management The need for proper risk management at the portfolio level The author lays out common problems and explains how to effectively solve them. And while he employs a wealth of illustrative charts, graphs, and statistics, he presents the material in an accessible style, and peppers the text with powerful personal anecdotes. Ideal for project managers, business analysts, and senior decision makers in both the public and private sectors, Solving for Project Risk Management offers everything you need to ensure your projects run smoothly, on budget, and deliver the expected outcomes.

Pandora's Risk

Author : Kent Osband
Publisher : Columbia University Press
ISBN 13 : 0231151721
Total Pages : 306 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (311 download)

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Book Synopsis Pandora's Risk by : Kent Osband

Download or read book Pandora's Risk written by Kent Osband and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2011 with total page 306 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Author of the acclaimed work Iceberg Risk: An Adventure in Portfolio Theory, Kent Osband argues that uncertainty is central rather than marginal to finance. Markets don't trade mainly on changes in risk. They trade on changes in beliefs about risk, and in the process, markets unite, stretch, and occasionally defy beliefs. Recognizing this truth would make a world of difference in investing. Belittling uncertainty has created a rift between financial theory and practice and within finance theory itself, misguiding regulation and stoking huge financial imbalances. Sparking a revolution in the mindset of the investment professional, Osband recasts the market as a learning machine rather than a knowledge machine. The market continually errs, corrects itself, and makes new errors. Respecting that process, without idolizing it, will promote wiser investment, trading, and regulation. With uncertainty embedded at its core, Osband's rational approach points to a finance theory worthy of twenty-first-century investing.

Risk Intelligence

Author : Dylan Evans
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
ISBN 13 : 1451610912
Total Pages : 288 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (516 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk Intelligence by : Dylan Evans

Download or read book Risk Intelligence written by Dylan Evans and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We must make judgments all the time when we can't be certain of the risks. Should we have that elective surgery? Trust the advice of our financial adviser? Take that new job we've been offered? How worried should we be about terrorist attacks? In this lively and groundbreaking book, pioneering researcher Dylan Evans introduces a newly discovered kind of intelligence for assessing risks, demonstrating how vital this risk intelligence is in our lives and how we can all raise our RQs in order to make better decisions every day. Evans has spearheaded the study of risk intelligence, devising a simple test to measure a person's RQ which when posted online sparked a storm of interest and was taken by tens of thousands of people. His research has revealed that risk intelligence is quite different from IQ, and that the vast majority of us have quite poor risk intelligence. However, he did find some people who have very high RQs. So what makes the difference? Introducing a wealth of fascinating research findings, Evans identifies a key set of common errors in our thinking that most of us fall victim to and that undermine our risk intelligence, such as "ambiguity aversion," overconfidence in our knowledge, the fallacy of mind reading, and our attraction to worst-case scenarios. We are also regularly led astray by the ways in which information is provided to us. Citing a wide range of real-life examples--from the brilliant risk assessment skills of horse race handicappers to the tragically flawed evaluations of risk that caused the financial crisis--Evans illustrates that sometimes our most trusted advisors, including the experts and analysts at the top of their disciplines, don't always give us the best advice when it comes to risk evaluation. Presenting his revolutionary test that allows readers to evaluate their own RQs, Evans introduces a number of simple techniques we can use to build our risk assessment powers and reports on the striking results he's seen in training people to develop their RQs. Both highly engaging and truly mind-changing, Risk Intelligence will fascinate all of those who are interested in how we can improve our thinking in order to enhance our lives.

Risk and Uncertainty

Author : K. Borch
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 134915248X
Total Pages : 461 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (491 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk and Uncertainty by : K. Borch

Download or read book Risk and Uncertainty written by K. Borch and published by Springer. This book was released on 1968-01-15 with total page 461 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Tyranny of Uncertainty

Author : Nabil Abu el Ata
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3662491044
Total Pages : 375 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (624 download)

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Book Synopsis The Tyranny of Uncertainty by : Nabil Abu el Ata

Download or read book The Tyranny of Uncertainty written by Nabil Abu el Ata and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-05-17 with total page 375 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors offer a revolutionary solution to risk management. It’s the unknown risks that keep leaders awake at night—wondering how to prepare for and steer their organization clear from that which they cannot predict. Businesses, governments and regulatory bodies dedicate endless amounts of time and resources to the task of risk management, but every leader knows that the biggest threats will come from some new chain of events or unexpected surprises—none of which will be predicted using conventional wisdom or current risk management technologies and so management will be caught completely off guard when the next crisis hits. By adopting a scientific approach to risk management, we can escape the limited and historical view of experience and statistical based risk management models to expose dynamic complexity risks and prepare for new and never experienced events.