Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 294 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects by : John R. Schuyler

Download or read book Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects written by John R. Schuyler and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Some of Schuyler's tried-and-true tips include: - The single-point estimate is almost always wrong, so that it is always better to express judgments as ranges. A probability distribution completely expresses someone's judgment about the likelihood of values within the range.- We often need a single-value cost or other assessment, and the expected value (mean) of the distribution is the only unbiased predictor. Expected value is the probability-weighted average, and this statistical idea is the cornerstone of decision analysis.- Some decisions are easy, perhaps aided by quick decision tree calculations on the back of an envelope. Decision dilemmas typically involve risky outcomes, many factors, and the best alternatives having comparable value. We only need analysis sufficient to confidently identify the best alternative. As soon as you know what to do, stop the analysis!- Be alert to ways to beneficially change project risks. We can often eliminate, avoid, transfer, or mitigate threats in some way. Get to know the people who make their living helping managers sidestep risk. They include insurance agents, partners, turnkey contractors, accountants, trainers, and safety personnel.

Engineering Decision Making and Risk Management

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118919335
Total Pages : 356 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (189 download)

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Book Synopsis Engineering Decision Making and Risk Management by : Jeffrey W. Herrmann

Download or read book Engineering Decision Making and Risk Management written by Jeffrey W. Herrmann and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-04-06 with total page 356 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: IIE/Joint Publishers Book of the Year Award 2016! Awarded for ‘an outstanding published book that focuses on a facet of industrial engineering, improves education, or furthers the profession’. Engineering Decision Making and Risk Management emphasizes practical issues and examples of decision making with applications in engineering design and management Featuring a blend of theoretical and analytical aspects, this book presents multiple perspectives on decision making to better understand and improve risk management processes and decision-making systems. Engineering Decision Making and Risk Management uniquely presents and discusses three perspectives on decision making: problem solving, the decision-making process, and decision-making systems. The author highlights formal techniques for group decision making and game theory and includes numerical examples to compare and contrast different quantitative techniques. The importance of initially selecting the most appropriate decision-making process is emphasized through practical examples and applications that illustrate a variety of useful processes. Presenting an approach for modeling and improving decision-making systems, Engineering Decision Making and Risk Management also features: Theoretically sound and practical tools for decision making under uncertainty, multi-criteria decision making, group decision making, the value of information, and risk management Practical examples from both historical and current events that illustrate both good and bad decision making and risk management processes End-of-chapter exercises for readers to apply specific learning objectives and practice relevant skills A supplementary website with instructional support material, including worked solutions to the exercises, lesson plans, in-class activities, slides, and spreadsheets An excellent textbook for upper-undergraduate and graduate students, Engineering Decision Making and Risk Management is appropriate for courses on decision analysis, decision making, and risk management within the fields of engineering design, operations research, business and management science, and industrial and systems engineering. The book is also an ideal reference for academics and practitioners in business and management science, operations research, engineering design, systems engineering, applied mathematics, and statistics.

Construction Risk Management Decision Making

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119693004
Total Pages : 436 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (196 download)

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Book Synopsis Construction Risk Management Decision Making by : Alex C. Arthur

Download or read book Construction Risk Management Decision Making written by Alex C. Arthur and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2021-12-13 with total page 436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: CONSTRUCTION RISK MANAGEMENT DECISION MAKING Explores the relevance of systems thinking and behavioral science in construction risk management Effective risk management is a vital component of all successful construction projects. Although quantitative tools for evaluating data and minimizing risk are readily available, construction managers commonly adopt a more innate, experience-based approach. In Construction Risk Management Decision Making, project manager and senior consultant Alex C. Arthur provides step-by-step advice on assessing and prioritizing risk using qualitative decision-making systems in the construction industry. Incorporating key theories and concepts from systems thinking and behavioral science, this highly practical guide focuses on the behavior patterns of real people in the industry, rather than complex quantitative techniques and data. Concise, easy-to-understand chapters highlight the current practices of construction risk management while helping readers view risk and decision making from a broader perspective. Throughout the book, the author presents invaluable insights into the ways construction professionals think and behave in the real world. Addresses the actual risk management practices of construction professionals Applies human behavioral theories to the study of construction risk management decision making Illustrates the highly intuitive approaches prevalent in various construction projects Features real-life case studies and practical examples throughout Construction Risk Management Decision Making is an excellent textbook for advanced students in project management, engineering, construction, and surveying courses, and a must-have guide for practitioners of construction management, surveying, and architecture.

Quantitative Risk Management and Decision Making in Construction

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Publisher : ASCE Press
ISBN 13 : 9780784414637
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (146 download)

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Book Synopsis Quantitative Risk Management and Decision Making in Construction by : Amarjit Singh

Download or read book Quantitative Risk Management and Decision Making in Construction written by Amarjit Singh and published by ASCE Press. This book was released on 2017 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Singh introduces valuable techniques for weighing and evaluating alternatives in decision making with a focus on risk analysis for identifying, quantifying, and mitigating risks associated with construction projects.

Risk Assessment and Decision Making in Business and Industry

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Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1420035053
Total Pages : 351 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk Assessment and Decision Making in Business and Industry by : Glenn Koller

Download or read book Risk Assessment and Decision Making in Business and Industry written by Glenn Koller and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2005-03-30 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Building upon the technical and organizational groundwork presented in the first edition, Risk Assessment and Decision Making in Business and Industry: A Practical Guide, Second Edition addresses the many aspects of risk/uncertainty (R/U) process implementation. This comprehensive volume covers four broad aspects of R/U: general concepts, i

Decision Analysis in Projects

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 164 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (97 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Analysis in Projects by : John R. Schuyler

Download or read book Decision Analysis in Projects written by John R. Schuyler and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

ProjectThink

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Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1317074793
Total Pages : 216 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (17 download)

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Book Synopsis ProjectThink by : Lev Virine

Download or read book ProjectThink written by Lev Virine and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-04-15 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Projects are constantly beset by problems, often caused by seemingly small mistakes which collectively lead to larger issues. Why do project managers and teams appear to repeat the same mistakes? Can they make better choices without introducing complex decision analysis processes? How can they make better estimates? Project management is the art and science of human interactions. ProjectThink identifies and explains the paths of those intentional and unintentional actions that lead to trouble. It provides advice and guidance in analysing information and risk and explains how ’choice-engineering’ can facilitate decision-making and encourage everyone involved in a project to follow the right procedures and work collaboratively.

Project Decisions, 2nd Edition

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Publisher : Berrett-Koehler Publishers
ISBN 13 : 1523085460
Total Pages : 403 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (23 download)

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Book Synopsis Project Decisions, 2nd Edition by : Lev Virine

Download or read book Project Decisions, 2nd Edition written by Lev Virine and published by Berrett-Koehler Publishers. This book was released on 2019-11-05 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This new edition gives project managers practical methods and tools to make the right decisions while juggling multiple objectives, risks and uncertainties, and stakeholders. Project management requires you to navigate a maze of multiple and complex decisions that are an everyday part of the job. To be effective, you must know how to make rational choices with your projects, what processes can help to improve these choices, and what tools are available to help you with decision-making. An entertaining and easy-to-read guide to a structured project decision-making process, Project Decisions will help you identify risks and perform basic quantitative and qualitative risk and decision analyses. Lev Virine and Michael Trumper use their understanding of basic human psychology to show you how to use event chain methodology, establish creative business environments, and estimate project time and costs. Each phase of the process is described in detail, including a review of both its psychological aspects and quantitative methods.

Project Risk Quantification

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781941075029
Total Pages : 416 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (75 download)

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Book Synopsis Project Risk Quantification by : John K. Hollmann

Download or read book Project Risk Quantification written by John K. Hollmann and published by . This book was released on 2016-06-28 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Project Risk Quantification presents the most practical, realistic, and integrated approach to project cost and schedule Risk Quantification that is available today. It offers proven, empirically-valid methods and tools applicable to projects of all types and at all decision gates. The text is written for both the manager and the risk analysis practitioner. It will bring reliable accuracy and contingency determination to your capital project organization.

Development of a Risk Based Decision Analysis System for Project Management in Construction Projects

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 182 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (785 download)

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Book Synopsis Development of a Risk Based Decision Analysis System for Project Management in Construction Projects by : Jesús Alfredo Sandoval-Wong

Download or read book Development of a Risk Based Decision Analysis System for Project Management in Construction Projects written by Jesús Alfredo Sandoval-Wong and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 182 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Decision-making on Mega-projects

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Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1848440170
Total Pages : 353 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (484 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision-making on Mega-projects by : Hugo Priemus

Download or read book Decision-making on Mega-projects written by Hugo Priemus and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2008-01-01 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It will be useful for those experienced and senior professionals who are charged with authorizing and controlling projects. Recommended. P.F. Rad, Choice Building on the seminal work of Bent Flyvbjerg, this book is a collection of expert contributions that will prove essential to anyone wanting to understand why mega-projects go wrong and how they can be made to work better. Professor Sir Peter Hall, University College London, UK This book offers a refreshing and fascinating look at mega-projects from the perspective of public evaluation and planning. With the changing role of the public sector in planning and implementing large-scale projects and a subsequent strong emergence of private public modes of operation, mega-projects have become a problematic phenomenon. This volume is a major source of information and reference. It provides the reader with unique insights and caveats in mega-projects planning. Peter Nijkamp, VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands This book enlarges the understanding of decision-making on mega-projects and suggest recommendations for a more effective, efficient and democratic approach. Authors from different scientific disciplines address various aspects of the decision-making process, such as management characteristics and cost benefit analysis, planning and innovation and competition and institutions. The subject matter is highly diverse, but certain questions remain at the forefront. For example, how do we deal with protracted preparation processes, how do we tackle risks and uncertainties, and how can we best divide the risks and responsibilities among the private and public players throughout the different phases of the project? Presenting a state-of-the-art overview, based on experiences and visions of authors from Europe and North America, this unique book will be of interest to practitioners of large-scale project management, politicians, public officials and private organisations involved in mega-project decision-making. It will also appeal to researchers, consultants and students dealing with substantial engineering projects, complex systems, project management and transport infrastructure.

Project Risk Analysis Made Ridiculously Simple

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Publisher : Imperial College Press
ISBN 13 : 9814759392
Total Pages : 283 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (147 download)

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Book Synopsis Project Risk Analysis Made Ridiculously Simple by : Lev Virine

Download or read book Project Risk Analysis Made Ridiculously Simple written by Lev Virine and published by Imperial College Press. This book was released on 2017-01-05 with total page 283 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Project management is the art of analyzing and managing risks. Without risk, there is little need for project management. Project Risk Analysis Made Ridiculously Simple offers a step-by-step guide on how to perform project risk analysis and risk management for a wide range of readers: students, project schedulers not exposed to project risk analysis before, and to project risk experts. With this book, you will learn how to:Easily recognizable real-life stories and projects provide a compelling narrative while imparting valuable information on both the theory and practice of project risk management. You will not only understand why project risk management is important to the success of their projects, but you will also know how it can be implemented in your organization and the appropriate tools to use.

Portfolio Decision Analysis

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1441999434
Total Pages : 410 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (419 download)

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Book Synopsis Portfolio Decision Analysis by : Ahti Salo

Download or read book Portfolio Decision Analysis written by Ahti Salo and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-08-12 with total page 410 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Portfolio Decision Analysis: Improved Methods for Resource Allocation provides an extensive, up-to-date coverage of decision analytic methods which help firms and public organizations allocate resources to 'lumpy' investment opportunities while explicitly recognizing relevant financial and non-financial evaluation criteria and the presence of alternative investment opportunities. In particular, it discusses the evolution of these methods, presents new methodological advances and illustrates their use across several application domains. The book offers a many-faceted treatment of portfolio decision analysis (PDA). Among other things, it (i) synthesizes the state-of-play in PDA, (ii) describes novel methodologies, (iii) fosters the deployment of these methodologies, and (iv) contributes to the strengthening of research on PDA. Portfolio problems are widely regarded as the single most important application context of decision analysis, and, with its extensive and unique coverage of these problems, this book is a much-needed addition to the literature. The book also presents innovative treatments of new methodological approaches and their uses in applications. The intended audience consists of practitioners and researchers who wish to gain a good understanding of portfolio decision analysis and insights into how PDA methods can be leveraged in different application contexts. The book can also be employed in courses at the post-graduate level.

Global Risk Agility and Decision Making

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Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 1349948608
Total Pages : 439 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (499 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Risk Agility and Decision Making by : Daniel Wagner

Download or read book Global Risk Agility and Decision Making written by Daniel Wagner and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-08-12 with total page 439 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Global Risk Agility and Decision Making, Daniel Wagner and Dante Disparte, two leading authorities in global risk management, make a compelling case for the need to bring traditional approaches to risk management and decision making into the twenty-first century. Based on their own deep and multi-faceted experience in risk management across numerous firms in dozens of countries, the authors call for a greater sense of urgency from corporate boards, decision makers, line managers, policymakers, and risk practitioners to address and resolve the plethora of challenges facing today’s private and public sector organizations. Set against the era of manmade risk, where transnational terrorism, cyber risk, and climate change are making traditional risk models increasingly obsolete, they argue that remaining passively on the side-lines of the global economy is dangerous, and that understanding and actively engaging the world is central to achieving risk agility. Their definition of risk agility taps into the survival and risk-taking instincts of the entrepreneur while establishing an organizational imperative focused on collective survival. The agile risk manager is part sociologist, anthropologist, psychologist, and quant. Risk agility implies not treating risk as a cost of doing business, but as a catalyst for growth. Wagner and Disparte bring the concept of risk agility to life through a series of case studies that cut across industries, countries and the public and private sectors. The rich, real-world examples underscore how once mighty organizations can be brought to their knees—and even their demise by simple miscalculations or a failure to just do the right thing. The reader is offered deep insights into specific risk domains that are shaping our world, including terrorism, cyber risk, climate change, and economic resource nationalism, as well as a frame of reference from which to think about risk management and decision making in our increasingly complicated world. This easily digestible book will shed new light on the often complex discipline of risk management. Readers will learn how risk management is being transformed from a business prevention function to a values-based framework for thriving in increasingly perilous times. From tackling governance structures and the tone at the top to advocating for greater transparency and adherence to value systems, this book will establish a new generation of risk leader, with clarion voices calling for greater risk agility. The rise of agile decision makers coincides with greater resilience and responsiveness in the era of manmade risk.

Risk Analysis in Project Management

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Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135826293
Total Pages : 148 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (358 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk Analysis in Project Management by : J. Raftery

Download or read book Risk Analysis in Project Management written by J. Raftery and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2003-09-02 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book demystifies risk analysis and enables decision makers to improve the quality of their judgements by providing more realistic information on which to base decisions. With a practical approach, minimising jargon, mathematics and academic references, the author provides practitioners with clear descriptions of the nature of risk and risk attitude. He also describes techniques of analysis and assesses their strengths and weaknesses.

Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics

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Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1135438994
Total Pages : 597 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (354 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics by : Bilal M. Ayyub

Download or read book Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics written by Bilal M. Ayyub and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2003-06-26 with total page 597 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: More than any other book available, Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics introduces the fundamental concepts, techniques, and applications of the subject in a style tailored to meet the needs of students and practitioners of engineering, science, economics, and finance. Drawing on his extensive experience in uncertainty and risk modeling and analysis, the author leads readers from the fundamental concepts through the theory, applications, and data requirements, sources, and collection. He emphasizes the practical use of the methods presented and carefully examines the limitations, advantages, and disadvantages of each. Case studies that incorporate the techniques discussed offer a practical perspective that helps readers clearly identify and solve problems encountered in practice. If you deal with decision-making under conditions of uncertainty, this book is required reading. The presentation includes more than 300 tables and figures, more than 100 examples, many case studies, and a wealth of end-of-chapter problems. Unlike the classical books on reliability and risk assessment, this book helps you relate underlying concepts to everyday applications and better prepares you to understand and use the methods of risk analysis.

Handbook of Decision Analysis

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118515846
Total Pages : 441 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (185 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Decision Analysis by : Gregory S. Parnell

Download or read book Handbook of Decision Analysis written by Gregory S. Parnell and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-01-24 with total page 441 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A ONE-OF-A-KIND GUIDE TO THE BEST PRACTICES IN DECISION ANALYSIS Decision analysis provides powerful tools for addressing complex decisions that involve uncertainty and multiple objectives, yet most training materials on the subject overlook the soft skills that are essential for success in the field. This unique resource fills this gap in the decision analysis literature and features both soft personal/interpersonal skills and the hard technical skills involving mathematics and modeling. Readers will learn how to identify and overcome the numerous challenges of decision making, choose the appropriate decision process, lead and manage teams, and create value for their organization. Performing modeling analysis, assessing risk, and implementing decisions are also addressed throughout. Additional features include: Key insights gleaned from decision analysis applications and behavioral decision analysis research Integrated coverage of the techniques of single- and multiple-objective decision analysis Multiple qualitative and quantitative techniques presented for each key decision analysis task Three substantive real-world case studies illustrating diverse strategies for dealing with the challenges of decision making Extensive references for mathematical proofs and advanced topics The Handbook of Decision Analysis is an essential reference for academics and practitioners in various fields including business, operations research, engineering, and science. The book also serves as a supplement for courses at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.