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Revisiting Causal Relationship Between Nifty 50 Index And Macroeconomic Variables In India
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Book Synopsis Revisiting Causal Relationship Between NIFTY 50 Index and Macroeconomic Variables in India by : Dr. Arpit Sidhu
Download or read book Revisiting Causal Relationship Between NIFTY 50 Index and Macroeconomic Variables in India written by Dr. Arpit Sidhu and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 9 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper we have consider the nexus between movement of stock prices and macroeconomic variables in Indian economy and establish stock market efficiency in India. For the investigation of Causality between the stock market prices and the selected macroeconomic variables we have used Auto-regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) for bound test procedure and Granger causality test. In this paper we have collected monthly data from January 2006 to December 2018, of stock market of National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE) and NIFTY which are true reflection of the stock market in India. Selected six macroeconomic variables which are investigated against NIFTY 50 are Index of total industrial production, Consumer Price Index, Money supply in the narrow sense, Interest rate, Export Import Ratio and Exchange Rate. Using ARDL bound test procedure and Granger causality test results exhibit the unidirectional causal flow from stock prices to interest rate and to index of industrial production in short-run as well as long-run. Between consumer price index and stock prices is no Granger causality in both directions. However, stock market in turn is also Granger caused by export-import ratio and money supply. Results conclude that stock prices have a short-run causal relationship with macroeconomic variables under study except consumer price index.
Book Synopsis Revisiting the Dynamic Relationship Between Macroeconomic Fundamentals and Stock Prices by : Deepa Mangala
Download or read book Revisiting the Dynamic Relationship Between Macroeconomic Fundamentals and Stock Prices written by Deepa Mangala and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 11 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The relationship between stock prices and macroeconomic variables varies across countries, time periods, datasets used, and the frequency of data used. Thus, an in-depth study to reinvestigate the relationship between selected macroeconomic variables i.e. inflation rate, exchange rate, index of industrial production, gold price, money supply and yields on treasury bills, and Indian stock market for the period of April 2005 to March 2014 has been carried out. In this study Johansen's cointegration test, vector error correction model (VECM), impulse response functions (IRFs), and variance decomposition (VDCs) test have been applied. The results of Johansen cointegration test indicates a significant negative relationship between exchange rate, inflation rate, and index of industrial production with stock prices whereas there exists a significantly positive relationship of money supply and yield on treasury bills with stock prices. Vector error correction model helps to determine both short and long run causal relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock price. The results found short run causality runs from exchange rate to Nifty, Nifty to money supply, and inflation rate whereas long run causality found from Nifty to short term interest rate and money supply.
Author :Gourishankar S. Hiremath Publisher :Springer Science & Business Media ISBN 13 :8132215907 Total Pages :135 pages Book Rating :4.1/5 (322 download)
Book Synopsis Indian Stock Market by : Gourishankar S. Hiremath
Download or read book Indian Stock Market written by Gourishankar S. Hiremath and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-10-28 with total page 135 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: India is one of the major emerging economies of the world and has witnessed tremendous economic growth over the last decades. The reforms in the financial sector were introduced to infuse energy and vibrancy into the process of economic growth. The Indian stock market now has the largest number of listed companies in the world. The phenomenal growth of the Indian equity market and its growing importance in the economy is indicated by the extent of market capitalization and the increasing integration of the Indian economy with the global economy. Various schools of thought explain the behaviour of stock returns. The Efficient Market Theory is the most important theory of the School of Neoclassical Finance based on rational expectation and no-trade argument. The book investigates the growth and efficiency of the Indian stock market in the theoretical framework of the Efficiency Market Hypothesis (EMH). The main objective of the present study is to examine the returns behaviour in the Indian equity market in the changed market environment. A detailed and rigorous analysis, made with the help of the sophisticated time series econometric models, is one of the key elements of this volume. The analysis empirically tests the random walk hypothesis and focuses on issues like nonlinear dynamics, structural breaks and long memory. It uses new and disaggregated data on recent reforms and changes in the market microstructure. The data on various indices including sectoral indices help in measuring the relative efficiency of the market and understanding how liquidity and market capitalization affect the efficiency of the market.
Book Synopsis Managing Capital Flows by : Masahiro Kawai
Download or read book Managing Capital Flows written by Masahiro Kawai and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2010-01-01 with total page 465 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Managing Capital Flows provides analyses that can help policymakers develop a framework for managing capital flows that is consistent with prudent macroeconomic and financial sector stability. While capital inflows can provide emerging market economies with invaluable benefits in pursuing economic development and growth, they can also pose serious policy challenges for macroeconomic management and financial sector supervision. The expert contributors cover a wide range of issues related to managing capital flows and analyze the experience of emerging Asian economies in dealing with surges in capital inflows. They also discuss possible policy measures to manage capital flows while remaining consistent with the goals of macroeconomic and financial sector stability. Building on this analysis, the book presents options for workable national policies and regional policy cooperation, particularly in exchange rate management. Containing chapters that bring in international experiences relevant to Asia and other emerging market economies, this insightful book will appeal to policymakers in governments and financial institutions, as well as public and private finance experts. It will also be of great interest to advanced students and academic researchers in finance.
Book Synopsis Reconstructing Macroeconomics by : Lance TAYLOR
Download or read book Reconstructing Macroeconomics written by Lance TAYLOR and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2009-06-30 with total page 455 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macroeconomics is in disarray. No one approach is dominant, and an increasing divide between theory and empirics is evident. This book presents both a critique of mainstream macroeconomics from a structuralist perspective and an exposition of modern structuralist approaches. The fundamental assumption of structuralism is that it is impossible to understand a macroeconomy without understanding its major institutions and distributive relationships across productive sectors and social groups. Lance Taylor focuses his critique on mainstream monetarist, new classical, new Keynesian, and growth models. He examines them from a historical perspective, tracing monetarism from its eighteenth-century roots and comparing current monetarist and new classical models with those of the post-Wicksellian, pre-Keynesian generation of macroeconomists. He contrasts the new Keynesian vision with Keynes's General Theory, and analyzes contemporary growth theories against long traditions of thought about economic development and structural change. Table of Contents: Acknowledgments Introduction 1. Social Accounts and Social Relations 1. A Simple Social Accounting Matrix 2. Implications of the Accounts 3. Disaggregating Effective Demand 4. A More Realistic SAM 5. Stock-Flow Relationships 6. A SAM and Asset Accounts for the United States 7. Further Thoughts 2. Prices and Distribution 1. Classical Macroeconomics 2. Classical Theories of Price and Distribution 3. Neoclassical Cost-Based Prices 4. Hat Calculus, Measuring Productivity Growth, and Full Employment Equilibrium 5. Mark-up Pricing in the Product Market 6. Efficiency Wages for Labor 7. New Keynesian Crosses and Methodological Reservations 8. First Looks at Inflation 3. Money, Interest, and Inflation 1. Money and Credit 2. Diverse Interest Theories 3. Interest Rate Cost-Push 4. Real Interest Rate Theory 5. The Ramsey Model 6. Dynamics on a Flying Trapeze 7. The Overlapping Generations Growth Model 8. Wicksell's Cumulative Process Inflation Model 9. More on Inflation Taxes 4. Effective Demand and Its Real and Financial Implications 1. The Commodity Market 2. Macro Adjustment via Forced Saving and Real Balance Effects 3. Real Balances, Input Substitution, and Money Wage Cuts 4. Liquidity Preference and Marginal Efficiency of Capital 5. Liquidity Preference, Fisher Arbitrage, and the Liquidity Trap 6. The System as a Whole 7. The IS/LM Model 8. Keynes and Friends on Financial Markets 9. Financial Markets and Investment 10. Consumption and Saving 11 "Disequilibrium" Macroeconomics 12. A Structuralist Synopsis 5. Short-Term Model Closure and Long-Term Growth 1. Model "Closures" in the Short Run 2. Graphical Representations and Supply-Driven Growth 3. Harrod, Robinson, and Related Stories 4. More Stable Demand-Determined Growth 6. Chicago Monetarism, New Classical Macroeconomics, and Mainstream Finance 1. Methodological Caveats 2. A Chicago Monetarist Model 3. A Cleaner Version of Monetarism 4. New Classical Spins 5. Dynamics of Government Debt 6. Ricardian Equivalence 7. The Business Cycle Conundrum 8. Cycles from the Supply Side 9. Optimal Behavior under Risk 10. Random Walk, Equity Premium, and the Modigliani-Miller Theorem 11. More on Modigliani-Miller 12. The Calculation Debate and Super-Rational Economics 7. Effective Demand and the Distributive Curve 1. Initial Observations 2. Inflation, Productivity Growth, and Distribution 3. Absorbing Productivity Growth 4. Effects of Expansionary Policy 5. Financial Extensions 6. Dynamics of the System 7. Comparative Dynamics 8. Open Economy Complications 8. Structuralist Finance and Money 1. Banking History and Institutions 2. Endogenous Finance 3. Endogenous Money via Bank Lending 4. Money Market Funds and the Level of Interest Rates 5. Business Debt and Growth in a Post-Keynesian World 6. New Keynesian Approaches to Financial Markets 9. A Genus of Cycles 1. Goodwin's Model 2. A Structuralist Goodwin Model 3. Evidence for the United States 4. A Contractionary Devaluation Cycle 5. An Inflation Expectations Cycle 6. Confidence and Multiplier 7. Minsky on Financial Cycles 8. Excess Capacity, Corporate Debt Burden, and a Cold Douche 9. Final Thoughts 10. Exchange Rate Complications 1. Accounting Conundrums 2. Determining Exchange Rates 3. Asset Prices, Expectations, and Exchange Rates 4. Commodity Arbitrage and Purchasing Power Parity 5. Portfolio Balance 6. Mundell-Fleming 7. IS/LM Comparative Statics 8. UIP and Dynamics 9. Open Economy Monetarism 10. Dornbusch 11. Other Theories of the Exchange Rate 12. A Developing Country Debt Cycle 13. Fencing in the Beast 11. Growth and Development Theories 1. New Growth Theories and Say's Law 2. Distribution and Growth 3. Models with Binding Resource or Sectoral Supply Constraints 4. Accounting for Growth 5. Other Perspectives 6. The Mainstream Policy Response 7. Where Theory Might Sensibly Go References Index Reconstructing Macroeconomics is a stunning intellectual achievement. It surveys an astonishing range of macroeconomic problems and approaches in a compact, coherent critical framework with unfailing depth, wit, and subtlety. Lance Taylor's pathbreaking work in structural macroeconomics and econometrics sets challenging standards of rigor, realism, and insight for the field. Taylor shows why the structuralist and Keynesian insistence on putting accounting consistency, income distribution, and aggregate demand at the center of macroeconomic analysis is indispensable to understanding real-world macroeconomic events in both developing and developed economies. The book is full of new results, modeling techniques, and shrewd suggestions for further research. Taylor's scrupulous and balanced appraisal of the whole range of macroeconomic schools of thought will be a source of new perspectives to macroeconomists of every persuasion. --Duncan K. Foley, New School University Lance Taylor has produced a masterful and comprehensive critical survey of existing macro models, both mainstream and structuralist, which breaks considerable new ground. The pace is brisk, the level is high, and the writing is entertaining. The author's sense of humor and literary references enliven the discussion of otherwise arcane and technical, but extremely important, issues in macro theory. This book is sure to become a standard reference that future generations of macroeconomists will refer to for decades to come. --Robert Blecker, American University While there are other books dealing with heterodox macroeconomics, this book surpasses them all in the quality of its presentation and in the careful treatment and criticism of orthodox macroeconomics including its recent contributions. The book is unique in the way it systematically covers heterodox growth theory and its relations to other aspects of heterodox macroeconomics using a common organizing framework in terms of accounting relations, and in the way it compares the theories with mainstream contributions. Another positive and novel feature of the book is that it takes a long view of the development of economic ideas, which leads to a more accurate appreciation of the real contributions by recent theoretical developments than is possible in a presentation that ignores the history of macroeconomics. --Amitava Dutt, University of Notre Dame
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :148437679X Total Pages :215 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, October 2018 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, October 2018 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-10-09 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global growth for 2018–19 is projected to remain steady at its 2017 level, but its pace is less vigorous than projected in April and it has become less balanced. Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past six months and the potential for upside surprises has receded. Global growth is projected at 3.7 percent for 2018–19—0.2 percentage point lower for both years than forecast in April. The downward revision reflects surprises that suppressed activity in early 2018 in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade measures implemented or approved between April and mid-September, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, tighter financial conditions, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills. The balance of risks to the global growth forecast has shifted to the downside in a context of elevated policy uncertainty. Several of the downside risks highlighted in the April 2018 World Economic Outlook (WEO)—such as rising trade barriers and a reversal of capital flows to emerging market economies with weaker fundamentals and higher political risk—have become more pronounced or have partially materialized. Meanwhile, the potential for upside surprises has receded, given the tightening of financial conditions in some parts of the world, higher trade costs, slow implementation of reforms recommended in the past, and waning growth momentum.
Book Synopsis Rethinking Financial Deepening by : Ms.Ratna Sahay
Download or read book Rethinking Financial Deepening written by Ms.Ratna Sahay and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-05-04 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global financial crisis experience shone a spotlight on the dangers of financial systems that have grown too big too fast. This note reexamines financial deepening, focusing on what emerging markets can learn from the advanced economy experience. It finds that gains for growth and stability from financial deepening remain large for most emerging markets, but there are limits on size and speed. When financial deepening outpaces the strength of the supervisory framework, it leads to excessive risk taking and instability. Encouragingly, the set of regulatory reforms that promote financial depth is essentially the same as those that contribute to greater stability. Better regulation—not necessarily more regulation—thus leads to greater possibilities both for development and stability.
Book Synopsis The Social and Economic Impact of Covid–19: Rapid Transformation of the 21st Century Society by : Marcel Mečiar
Download or read book The Social and Economic Impact of Covid–19: Rapid Transformation of the 21st Century Society written by Marcel Mečiar and published by IJOPEC PUBLICATION. This book was released on 2021-05-05 with total page 201 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The contributions in this book demonstrate that the Covid-19 pandemic has led to negative socioeconomic impacts, put a tremendous strain on social institutions in many countries, and changed the lives of people around the world. Society, economy, business companies, management structures of companies, consumption habits of society, education, and health sector have been significantly affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. Some of these effects are thought to be permanent even after the pandemic subsides. It is obvious that the process of digitization will continue in making a consumer’s life more comfortable and safer. Some researchers estimate that approximately 60 percent of companies plan to let their employees continue working remotely from home offices in the post-pandemic period. Many experts emphasize that online shopping, which increased rapidly during the pandemic period, will continue to dominate after the pandemic. Therefore, the social effects of the Covid-19 pandemic will be the subject of many academic studies today and in the future.
Book Synopsis Internet, Economic Growth and Globalization by : Claude E. Barfield
Download or read book Internet, Economic Growth and Globalization written by Claude E. Barfield and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-11-02 with total page 393 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The dynamics of the digital economy in the US, Europe and Japan are rather different. Some EU countries come close to the USA as the leading OECD country in the new economy, but Japan faces particular problems in catching-up digitally. Information and communication technology will affect productivity growth, production, the financial system and trade. Setting adequate rules for the digital economy - at the national and international level - is a key challenge for industrialized countries. Moreover, cultural and organizational challenges will also have to be met.
Book Synopsis Asian Perspectives on Financial Sector Reforms and Regulation by : Masahiro Kawai
Download or read book Asian Perspectives on Financial Sector Reforms and Regulation written by Masahiro Kawai and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2011 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Examines Asia's emerging markets, which survived the financial debacle of 2008-09 with only modest declines in growth; discusses activities that could dampen continuing development in these markets including inflation, surging capital inflows, asset and credit bubbles, and rapid currency appreciation; and offers strategies to promote financial stability"--Provided by publisher.
Book Synopsis A Hundred Small Steps by : India. Committee on Financial Sector Reforms
Download or read book A Hundred Small Steps written by India. Committee on Financial Sector Reforms and published by SAGE Publications. This book was released on 2009-01-06 with total page 207 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While previous reports have focused solely on the ‘big’ issues like capital account convertibility, bank privatization, and priority sector norms, A Hundred Small Steps: Report of the Committee on Financial Sector Reforms goes deep into other areas where reforms are less controversial, but perhaps as important. The report argues that we need a change in mindset for the financial sector, one that recognizes that efficiency, innovation, and value for money are as important for the poor as they are for our new Indian multinationals, and these will come from improved governance, new entry and competition. Indeed the Committee believes that the road to making Mumbai an international financial centre runs through every village in India. The report is divided into separate self-contained chapters; the underlying theme behind all the proposals is the need to enhance inclusion, growth, and stability by allowing players more freedom, even while strengthening the financial and regulatory infrastructure. The role of the government is to create an enabling environment by building sound financial infrastructure. The Committee has focused primarily on broad principles and directions, without entering too much into details of implementation. It emphasizes three important reasons for financial sector reform: to include more Indians in the growth process; to foster growth itself; and to improve financial stability, flexibility, and resilience and thus protect the economy against the kind of turbulence that is affecting the world today. The Committee recognizes this is a difficult time to propose financial sector reforms in India. The near meltdown of the US financial sector seems to be proof that markets and competition do not work. This is clearly the wrong lesson to take from the debacle. The right lesson is that markets and institutions do succumb occasionally to excesses, which is why regulators have to be vigilant. The report argues for skilled regulators who encourage growth and innovation even while working harder to contain risks.
Download or read book The Public Domain written by James Boyle and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2017-11-25 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this insightful book you will discover the range wars of the new information age, which is today's battles dealing with intellectual property. Intellectual property rights marks the ground rules for information in today's society, including today's policies that are unbalanced and unspupported by any evidence. The public domain is vital to innovation as well as culture in the realm of material that is protected by property rights.
Book Synopsis Small Country Innovation Systems by : Charles Edquist
Download or read book Small Country Innovation Systems written by Charles Edquist and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2009-01-01 with total page 561 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What are the challenges that small countries face concerning innovation and what are the effects of globalization on their innovation systems? In this very interesting, rich and timely book, Edquist and Hommen compare ten different small national innovation systems from the Asia Pacific and Northern Europe that are rather advanced in their development. The answers that the authors give are convincing and relate not only to the unique characteristics of each national system that shapes innovative activity, but also to some commonalities that exist across these countries. Franco Malerba, Bocconi University, Italy This major book presents case studies of ten small country national systems of innovation (NSIs) in Europe and Asia, namely, Denmark, Finland, Hong Kong, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, South Korea, Sweden and Taiwan. These cases have been carefully selected as examples of success within the context of globalization and as new economies where competition is increasingly based on innovation. To facilitate comparative analysis the ten studies follow a common structure, informed by an activities-based approach to describing and analysing NSIs, which addresses the critical issues of globalization and the consequences of innovation for economic performance. The final chapter compares fast growth and slow growth countries, concentrating on issues of innovation policy. The results illustrate the usefulness of an activities-based approach to studying NSIs, point to distinctive national roles within an increasingly differentiated international division of labour and address the key themes of selectivity and coordination in innovation policy. This valuable book presents one of the most significant, comprehensive and comparative country studies of NSIs in the last decade. It will have great import and should be widely read by every serious student and scholar of innovation studies.
Book Synopsis Artificial Intelligence for Sustainable Finance and Sustainable Technology by : Abdalmuttaleb M. A. Musleh Al-Sartawi
Download or read book Artificial Intelligence for Sustainable Finance and Sustainable Technology written by Abdalmuttaleb M. A. Musleh Al-Sartawi and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-01-01 with total page 637 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book shows latest research on artificial intelligence for sustainable technology. ICGER 2021 was organized by the Accounting, Finance and Banking Department at Ahlia University, Bahrain, and was conducted on the 15th and 16th of September. The strategic partners included the University of Jordan, the Bahrain Economists Society, the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants: ACCA, Al-Barka Banking Group and the International Computer Auditing Education Association: ICAEA . The theme of the ICGER 2021 centered around artificial intelligence for sustainable finance and sustainable technology. Accordingly, the papers presented at the conference provided a holistic view of sustainable finance, sustainability, AI, financial technology, cybersecurity, blockchain, CSR, and governance. This book, unlike ever before, brings together intelligence applications of new technologies and the sustainability requirements in the era of the digital economy, with special attention given to the opportunities, challenges, for education, business growth, and economic progression of nations which will help societies (economists, financial managers, engineers, ICT specialists, digital managers, data managers, policymakers, regulators, researchers, academics, and students) to better understand, use, and control AI applications and financial technologies to develop future strategies and to achieve sustainable development goals.
Author :India. Ministry of Finance. High Powered Expert Committee Publisher :SAGE ISBN 13 :9780761936305 Total Pages :286 pages Book Rating :4.9/5 (363 download)
Book Synopsis Mumbai - An International Financial Centre by : India. Ministry of Finance. High Powered Expert Committee
Download or read book Mumbai - An International Financial Centre written by India. Ministry of Finance. High Powered Expert Committee and published by SAGE. This book was released on 2007-04-19 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Ministry of Finance, Government of India established a High Powered Expert Committee in 2006 to study the feasibility of India's entry into the global market for international financial services and that of Mumbai becoming an international financial center. The Committee's report analyses Mumbai's strengths and weaknesses in terms of the above seven key factors essential for the success of an IFC. The report strives to deliver a nuanced appreciation of the likely costs and benefits of the path to an IFC, based on an understanding of which policy-makers can make a reasoned choice.
Book Synopsis The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Under Capital Inflows by : Ms.Sonali Jain-Chandra
Download or read book The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Under Capital Inflows written by Ms.Sonali Jain-Chandra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-11-02 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in open economies could be impaired if interest rates are driven primarily by global factors, especially during periods of large capital inflows. The main objective of this paper is to assess whether this is true for emerging Asia’s economies. Using a dynamic factor model and a structural vector auto-regression model, we show that long-term interest rates in Asia are indeed predominantly driven by global factors. However, monetary policy transmission mechanism remains effective in the region, as it operates predominantly through short-term interest rates. Nevertheless, the monetary transmission mechanism, though effective, is somewhat weaker in Asia during the periods of surges in capital inflows.
Book Synopsis The Skyscraper Curse by : Mark Thornton
Download or read book The Skyscraper Curse written by Mark Thornton and published by Ludwig von Mises Institute. This book was released on 2018-08-01 with total page 310 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Skyscraper Curse is Dr. Mark Thornton's definitive work on booms and busts, and it explains why only Austrian economists really understand them. It makes business cycle theory accessible to a whole new 21st-century audience. And they need it, especially those under 40. Many of the brilliant quants working on Wall Street and at the Fed barely remember the Crash of 2008, much less understand it. But Mark Thornton does, and his book is a warning about overheated equity markets, over-inflated housing prices, and clueless central bankers. Given the shaky stock markets lately, 2018 may be the year the Fed’s latest bubble bursts. And when it does, it will be even more painful than 10 years ago. In fact, US household and business debt is now one trillion dollars higher than 2008. Mark is well known as an expert on bubbles and Fed malfeasance. His work appears in outlets like Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Forbes, The Economist, Barron’s, and Investor’s Business Daily. His now-infamous Skyscraper Index theory draws the connection between loose monetary policy, artificially low interest rates, and vanity construction projects. Put the three together and it doesn’t turn out well. And let’s not forget that Dr. Thornton was among only a handful of economists to warn about the dangerous housing bubble in 2004, and again in 2006. Cabbies and waiters bought up condos with no money down in places like Las Vegas. Prices rose 25 percent or more every year in some coastal markets. Even people with terrible credit financed houses at five or seven times their annual income. All of it was made possible by the Fed and its mania for low interest rates. So when the experts said “Nobody could have seen this coming,” the Mises Institute had Mark’s articles and papers ready to go. The housing crash, and the meltdown in equity markets less than a year later, were thoroughly explained by Austrian business cycle theory. And Mark was the capable face of the Mises Institute during it all. Without a lay-friendly book like The Skyscraper Curse, millions more Americans will be duped by the next crash. Dr. Thornton’s book tells the story that needs to be told. It will be among the only alternative explanations available when the next crisis comes.
